School Enrollment Projections Case Study:NYC Call for InnovationsMETHODOLOGY EXPLANATIONTHOMAS MOOREAPRIL 21, 2017

INTRO

NET MIGRATION

http://www.netmigration.wisc.edu/

New York, New York

Peak Age: 25-29

Net Migration

Peak Age: 25-29

Net Migration

Cook County, Illinois (Chicago)

Gwinnett County, GA (Suburb of Atlanta)

Peak Age: 30-34

Alachua County, FL (College Town)

Peak Age: 20-24

Leon County, FL (College Town)

Peak Age: 20-24

St Lucie County, FL (Typical Florida)

Pasco County

Volusia County

Lee County

Palm Beach County

Peak Age: 20-24

NET MIGRATION

INCOMING TAX FILERS TO ORANGE COUNTY, FL 2014 TO 2015

STEP 2

STEP 2: Applicants were provided a tabular Datafile:• School District 20• K-5 students, by Grade, by census tract• 10- year history (2001-02 to 2010-11)

Task:• Provide projections by each ES grade, by

census tract• 6-Year projections: Each year starting with

2011-12 through 2016-17• Similar data format

DISTRICT 20 Characteristics:

STEP 2

DISTRICT 20 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT:

STEP 2

Why is this Area’s enrollment growing?:• Natural Increase (Births>deaths) • Replacement population of families• More people are choosing public

school

STEP 2 METHODOLOGY:

1. Create regions within District 20. (Why regions?)2. Estimate Kindergarten levels entering the school

system by region and by census tract using 2010 census data.

3. Establish grade level control numbers by region as well as aggregated for district 20.

4. Project students using cohort survival by census tract and align to the control numbers by region.

STEP 2 DATA USED:

• HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT BY CENSUS TRACT (PROVIDED)

• 2010 CENSUS DATA (P14 FILE)

• NYC GIS PARCEL LAYER (PLUTO)

TASK 1: CREATE REGIONS FOR COHORT SURVIVAL CALCULATIONS

DATA SOURCE:Parcel Layer (PLUTO)

Union PLUTO residential units with census tract/student data to get #Students/Unit

STEP 2

TASK 1: CREATE REGIONS FOR COHORT SURVIVAL CALCULATIONS

DATA SOURCE:Parcel Layer (PLUTO)Students by Census TractStudent Generation Rate

STEP 2

TASK 2: ESTIMATING KINDERGARTEN LEVELS USING CENSUS DATA

STEP 2

STARTING DATA CENSUS P14

MODEL

DISTRICTWIDE & REGIONAL CONTROL NUMBERS

DISTRICT 20 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT

REGION A• ENROLLMENT JUMP IN 2009-10• GROWTH STABILIZING AT 1400 STUDENTS PER GRADE

LEVEL

PHASE 1

PHASE 1

DISTRICT 20 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT

REGION C• ENROLLMENT JUMP IN 2010-11• GROWTH AT THE EARLY STAGES• HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF EXISTING POPULATION

ATTENDING PUBLIC SCHOOLS

STEP 2

DISTRICT 20 PROJECTED ENROLLMENTCONTROL NUMBERS

DISTRICT 20 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS:

STEP 2

FINALCensus ID

STEP 3:

PART 1 (80%): 6-Year projections of Kindergarten by Census Block for all of Queens.(Provided Historical K by census block)

PART 2 (20%): 6-Year K-5 projections by ethnicity/race, and FRM by Census Tract for all of Queens(Provided historical aggregated K-5 enrollments by ethnicity/race and FRM by census tract.

STEP 3

TASK 1: CREATE REGIONS2005 2010

STEP 3: RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT-NEW CONSTRUCTION

INCLUSIONARY HOUSING DESIGNATED AREAS

STEP 3: STUDENTS CHOOSING TO ATTEND

PERCENTAGE: # OF KINDERGARTEN/ # OF KINDERGARTEN AGED STUDENTS

STEP 3 METHODOLOGY: Part 1:1. Create regions.2. Estimate Kindergarten levels entering the school system

by region and by census block using 2010 census data.3. Utilized and estimated based on the trend of school

aged students choosing to attend public school.

Part 2: 1. Projected K-5 School Age Population from census data.2. Calculated existing % of Ethnicity/Race & FRM and

applied percentage to projected school age population.

(assumes ethnicities will grow in the same proportions as the school aged population)

Winner