NWS Spokane Fire WeatherLatah County LEPC

August 11th 2011Bob Tobin

Let’s Start With What We Know

There was a 30 day period of normal to above normal temps Jan-Feb

Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La NiPatterns during La Niña Wintersña Winters

We were in a strong La Nina pattern which is expected to weaken to near neutral if not weak El Nino through the summer.

What do we expect…The $64,000 question

• Nearly all models indicate that La Niña is passed it’s peak and quickly weakening, but will last well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.• Considerable uncertainty is evident during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, but a majority of models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C ).

The CFS ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts La Niña conditions through Northern Hemisphere have transitioned to neutral conditions, then a good chance of swinging back to a weak/moderate La Nina by winter 2011/2012.

Here are some Analog years that fit 55-56, 73-74, 88-89, 07-08. 1989 now appears to be the best fit.

I added the ENSO forecast through the summer 2011 from CPC.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

1955 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 -1.9

1956 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8

1973 1.8 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 -2.0 -2.1

1974 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7

1988 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9

1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1

2007 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3

2008 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.6

2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8

2010 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5

2011 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -.06 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3

Not big temperatures differences stick out For monthly average temperatures.

Mean troughing off the coastWet thunderstorm potential

high

4 Corner High rebuilds

Climate Precipitation outlook for Aug-Oct 2011

Climate Temperature outlook for Aug-Oct 2011

What happened in July/August of 1989, the year that had a fading “La Nina” event similar to 2011?

Cool over the

region in

Jul/Aug

1989

Moist in some

areas in

Jul/Aug 1989

What happened in September of 1989, the year that had a fading “La Nina” event similar to 2011?

Drier than usual mainly

over the west side

in Sep 1989

Warmer than

usual over WA and some

of Oregon in

Sep 1989

Most Likely to happen in 2011Most Likely to happen in 2011 – –

Near record precipitation and snow and cooler than normal Near record precipitation and snow and cooler than normal through late spring. This continued through July.through late spring. This continued through July.

July-AugustJuly-August

Cooler than usual most areas so far in July, particularly west side Cooler than usual most areas so far in July, particularly west side and Cascades. Fewer and shorter hot spells east side through and Cascades. Fewer and shorter hot spells east side through Aug.Aug.

Slow Start! Slow Start! As much as 4-5 weeks delay in start of fire season As much as 4-5 weeks delay in start of fire season due to effects of lingering snowmelt and cool/wet weather. This due to effects of lingering snowmelt and cool/wet weather. This means around the first week of August or later before significant means around the first week of August or later before significant fires are possible. fires are possible.

Lightning strike count looks to be less than usual for the summer Lightning strike count looks to be less than usual for the summer for Pac NW but potentially more for Pac NW but potentially more Hurricanes Hurricanes ..

One to two periods of episodic lightning outbreaks will be possible. One to two periods of episodic lightning outbreaks will be possible.

September warmer and drier then normal.September warmer and drier then normal.

Large timber fires will not be possible at the lower-mid elevations until the first week of August or later, but may last into the middle of September.

East of the Kettle mountains and north Idaho should experience average number of fire starts and below average number of acres.

1974: 1103 starts/ 9466 acres

1989: 1008 starts/ 14,699 acres Eastern Washington North Idaho

1999: 951starts / 13,128 acres

2008: 1,078 starts/ 77,769 acres.

Avg:1071 starts/106,985.