NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

Today and Tuesday 11:00 a.m. July 7th , 2014

Warning Coordination Meteorologist: David Nicosia

FOR CENTRAL NY This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton, and Oneonta.

FOR NORTHEAST PA This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.

This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton

Service Area only:

Summary

• Thunderstorms with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall possible from mid afternoon into this evening.

– Isolated tornado possible.

• Our area could see a more significant severe weather outbreak Tuesday.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon/Evening

**THIS STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK

AS OF 9:00 AM ON 7/7/14.**

Specific Threat Probabilities:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK

DAMAGING WINDS LARGE HAIL TORNADOES

30%

15% 5% 15%

15%

5%

Highest Chance(yellow)

15%

5%

2%

Timing

• Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across central NY and weaken late this morning/early afternoon.

• Another round of stronger and potentially severe thunderstorms is expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and last into the evening.

Radar as of 1030 am

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will weaken as they cross NY state late morning/early afternoon.

Timing of Onset of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms

Syracuse

Boonville

Binghamton

Ithaca

Towanda

Scranton

Wilkes-Barre

Penn Yan

Bath

Utica

Oneonta

Cooperstown

Elmira

Cortland

Geneva

Monticello

Montrose

NY PA

Delhi

NY

PA

2 PM TO 5 PM

5 PM TO 7 PM

Flash Flood Potential

• Locally heavy rain could cause urban and poor drainage flooding with any thunderstorm today and this evening.

• There is a chance for an isolated more serious flash flood.

Rainfall Needed to begin Flash Flooding.

1 hour Threshold

3 hour Threshold

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday

**THIS STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK AS OF 9:00 AM ON 7/7/14.**

30%

15%

5%

5%

5%

Timing

• A strong cold front will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday and move across NY and PA Tuesday night.

• This front has the potential to organize a significant severe weather outbreak Tuesday into Tuesday night.

• Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Monitor Conditions!

• Continuous updates: http://weather.gov/bgm

• Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov

• Or on Social Media at:

Facebook: Us National Weather Service Binghamton

Twitter: @NWSBinghamton

http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Binghamton.gov

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