NWS / OST Perspective on Space-Based Lidar as part of the Future Enterprise

Observing SystemMike Johnson

Office of Science & TechnologyNational Weather Service

24 August 2010

NWS / OST Perspective on Space-Based Lidar as part of the Future Enterprise

Observing SystemMike Johnson

Office of Science & TechnologyNational Weather Service

24 August 2010

OverviewOverview

  A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar

Summary

  A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar

Summary

National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a

Weather-Sensitive Society

National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a

Weather-Sensitive Society Severe weather to protect lives and

property

Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives

Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets

Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts

Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency

Severe weather to protect lives and property

Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives

Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets

Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts

Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency

Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP

(NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)(NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)

High Weather Impact - PayoffAviation Weather Example

High Weather Impact - PayoffAviation Weather Example

Baseline Demand

Future Demand

>200%

SectorCapacity

125-200%

80-125%

Air traffic likely doubling by 2025

Delays cost $41 billion/year (2007)

70% were weather relatedNextGen 2025 goal: 2/3 reduction with better

weather information Improvements to forecast lead-

time for initiation of storm-scale convection, ceiling/visibility

NWS/OS&T MissionNWS/OS&T Mission

Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging

Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance) Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions

Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next-

generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc

Enable Continuous Improvement…with Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere

budget era Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging

Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance) Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions

Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next-

generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc

Enable Continuous Improvement…with Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere

budget era Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

Integrated Observation andAnalysis System

Integrated Observation andAnalysis System

Analysis

Inventory systems,and metadata standards

Assess interdepend-encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality

Current

Individual Systems Public Private Universities

RadarSatelliteIn-SituUpper AirEtc

StrategiesNational Mesonet

Network of Networks

Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR)

Global Systems

Multisensor platforms

Optimization with OSEs, OSSEs

Standards, Architectures, Protocols

Maximize value of investment

Future

Weather Information Database

Open Architecture

System B

System C

System A

MADIS

IOOS

Integrated Radar System

Rawindsones

Satellites

System B

System C

System A

MADIS

IOOS

Integrated Radar System

Rawindsones

Satellites

OverviewOverview

  A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar

Summary

  A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar

Summary

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar (slide 1)

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar (slide 1)

Fiscal Realities • recognize competition with other observing systems,

model & IT improvements, & forecast infrastructure redesign

Demonstrate technology is ready for space

Broaden Advocacy Base• Caution - but don’t become all things to all users

(NPOESS example). Focus on main application then develop secondary applications without system redesign

Fiscal Realities • recognize competition with other observing systems,

model & IT improvements, & forecast infrastructure redesign

Demonstrate technology is ready for space

Broaden Advocacy Base• Caution - but don’t become all things to all users

(NPOESS example). Focus on main application then develop secondary applications without system redesign

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar (slide 2)

Business Case for Operational Space-Based Lidar (slide 2)

  Ideas for building a stronger operational case: Demonstrate impact of global lidar wind observations on NWP

• Focus on short-term high-resolution model impacts to the BL forecast• This should be lidar’s strongest case

Aviation Support• Consider compliment to VIS/IR sensing of Volcanic Ash & SO2, (understand

how lidar would fit the operational concept, don’t invent something not operationally feasible)

• Consider compliment to integrated-observations of cloud height, cloud phase, cloud type observations (Icing) and low-cloud and fog observations (terminal landing and take-off forecasts)

• Consider applications to turbulence prediction Consider compliment to GEO sounder observations of Air Quality

(including smoke & dust) detection Other Applications?

  Ideas for building a stronger operational case: Demonstrate impact of global lidar wind observations on NWP

• Focus on short-term high-resolution model impacts to the BL forecast• This should be lidar’s strongest case

Aviation Support• Consider compliment to VIS/IR sensing of Volcanic Ash & SO2, (understand

how lidar would fit the operational concept, don’t invent something not operationally feasible)

• Consider compliment to integrated-observations of cloud height, cloud phase, cloud type observations (Icing) and low-cloud and fog observations (terminal landing and take-off forecasts)

• Consider applications to turbulence prediction Consider compliment to GEO sounder observations of Air Quality

(including smoke & dust) detection Other Applications?

SummarySummary

Presented portions of NWS Science & Technology Roadmap to demonstrate user priorities

• focus on short term forecasting at high spatial & temporal resolution

Discussed some thoughts on path to realizing an operational space-based lidar mission

Demonstrate technical feasibility through ADM>>GWOS Concurrently demonstrate impacts to operational models Pursue secondary applications to broaden user advocacy

Presented portions of NWS Science & Technology Roadmap to demonstrate user priorities

• focus on short term forecasting at high spatial & temporal resolution

Discussed some thoughts on path to realizing an operational space-based lidar mission

Demonstrate technical feasibility through ADM>>GWOS Concurrently demonstrate impacts to operational models Pursue secondary applications to broaden user advocacy

BackupBackup

email: mike.w.johnson@noaa.govemail: mike.w.johnson@noaa.gov

BackupBackup

email: mike.w.johnson@noaa.govemail: mike.w.johnson@noaa.gov

Service Area GoalsService Area GoalsScience Service

AreaKey Products/

ServicesS&T Goal 2025

ExamplesResearch Needs and

Opportunities: ExamplesFire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire

weather/behavior

Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings

Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles

Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection

Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics

Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity

Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore

Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts

Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes

Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events

Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty

Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics

Winter Weather Winter Storm Warning 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity

Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore

Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts

Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes

Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events

Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty

Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter

>90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind

<5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models

1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems

Air Quality Predictions

Geomagnetic Storm Warnings

Tsunami Warnings

Wind Forecasts

Air Quality

Space Weather

Tsunami

Emerging Areas/Surface Wx

Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD)

Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD)

Description:Summary (report) of Program observing system requirementsRequirements independent of current or planned platforms

Recipients: Hardcopy/email to program managers,NOSC, etc

Application: Allows program managers to review and verify current observing requirements

13Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO