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CB Operations CommitteeLynn Maximuk

DSPO Operations Team

Eastern Region HPC Day 4-7 Grid Proposal Review, Findings and

Recommendations4/7/04

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ER Proposal identifies need for Common and Skillful starting

point for Days 4-7 guidance grids

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The proposal presented the following issues:

Workload• WFOs focus resources inefficiently to

account for both severe weather and database preparation

Verification

• MDL preliminary verification statistics show an inability to improve upon day 4-7 forecast guidance

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Operations Team Findings and Recommendations on those

Issues

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Workload Issue• Finding 1 - The workload required for ER WFOs

to prepare forecasts for Days 4-7 was higher than team members expect might result from a NWS-wide survey.

• Recommendation 1A - Implement a process for gathering objective workload data. Action - Operations Action Team

• Recommendation 1B – Reinforce the operations philosophy and the importance of setting workload priorities to all facets of the NWS. Action – Training & Outreach Team

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Workload Issue Cont.

• Finding 2 - it is not clear how immediate significant workload savings at the WFO will result.– No Recommendation

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Verification Issue

• Finding 3 - Operations team can not disprove the statement that verification statistics show WFO inability to improve upon days 4-7 forecast guidance. Team has concerns about the depth of data analysis and did not have time to gather available data for analysis.

• Recommendation 3 – Further analysis of like verification statistics is required to validate this statement on a national scale. Action - Assessment Team

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Additional Findings and Recommendations

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Finding 4 – HPC Grid Preparation

• Finding 4 – SBN transmission of HPC 5 km medium range guidance grids will create additional load on communication system possibly creating competition with other valuable data sets.

• Recommendation 4A – Need to analyze requirements and determine priority of this data set with respect to the other requests for gridded guidance data. Action - Systems and Communications Team

• Recommendation 4B – In lieu of 5 km grids HPC prepare and transmit modified MOS, formatted into MOS-like text product for use by each office using existing smart tools.Action: HPC

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Finding 5 – HPC Grid Preparation Cont.

• Finding 5 -Additional guidance grids will place further load on the IFPS server and data storage capabilities within each WFO and must be considered as a configuration management issue.

• Recommendation 5 – Analyze requirements and impacts to ensure WFO system stability.Action: Systems and Communications Team

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Finding 6 – HPC Collaborative Process

• Finding 6 – Collaborative process proposed by HPC was acceptable, however timing for delivery of guidance grids to WFOs was a concern.

• Recommendation 6A – Final package of grids, pressures and fronts should be available to WFOs no later than 15Z.Action: HPC

• Recommendation 6B – HPC explore feasibility of getting access to MOS data prior to current 10Z time.Action: HPC

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Finding 7 – Develop WFO Tools, Scripts and Methodologies

• FINDING 7 - WFOs require a standard set of robust tools to introduce mesoscale and microscale influences to the forecast grids while retaining continuity of data along WFO borders.

• RECOMMENDATION 7A - Continue on-going work by Smart Tools and Smart Init Teams to baseline the optimum tools and methodologies.Action: Smart Tool and Init Teams

• RECOMMENDATION 7B -  Ensure forecasters are provided training in these methods. Action – Training & Outreach Team

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Finding 8 – Minimize WFO Editing in days 4-7

• FINDING 8 -  An NWS collaborated effort in the production of days 4-7 forecast grids best leverages the capabilities of national centers to contribute expertise on the synoptic scale and the WFO’s to incorporate expertise concerning local influences. 

• RECOMMENDATION 8A -  HPC provide effective guidance grid information by efficiently maximizing model diagnostic skills. Action: HPC

• Recommendation 8B – Local management coach forecasters to concentrate on high impact weather events minimizing manual manipulation of high quality guidance grid information. Action: Regions

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Finding 9 – Eliminate HPC Delta Grid

• Finding 9 – Little if any use of delta grids in WFOs.

• Recommendation 9 – Discontinue production of delta grids and use HPC resources to produce guidance grid informationAction: HPC

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Finding 10 – WFO Focus on Days 1-3

• Finding 10 – The Team feels that the Operations Philosophy adequately addresses this recommendation by endorsing the expenditure of resources on the high impact weather events no matter what time frame they are in.

• Recommendation 10 Action: DSPO finalize CONOPS

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Finding 11 - OCONUS• Finding 11 ER Proposal Does Not Consider

OCONUS. The Operations Team feels it is important for any HPC/NCEP proposal to apply to all offices in the NWS. Due to the ORDs in Pacific and Alaskan Regions this year it becomes particularly important that they have the benefit of NCEP's offer to supply medium-range guidance grid information. Failure to do so will further handicap AR and PR's effort to supply quality grids to NDFD.

• Recommendation 11: Action - NCEP

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Alternative Approaches to Providing Medium Range Guidance

Grid Information• DGEX –currently in evaluation test at

selected WFOs• MDL 5km gridded MOS - western 1/3rd of

CONUS test Oct. ’04• Match_MOS SmartTool – GFE based tool

to create a local grid from existing MOS guidance, currently in use at many WFOs

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Proposed Implementation Strategy• HPC generates a MOS-like text product that incorporates human

modifications to GFS MOS - Forecast elements made available as HPC phases in production

• HPC guidance applied to local WFO grids via Match_MOS – like SmartTool – baseline tools will be provided to WFOs with training on use

• Develop metrics to assess value of HPC medium range guidance information

• Develop objective workload metrics

• Scheduled decision points to assess continued evolution HPC medium range guidance production

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Decision

Approve or disapprove team’s recommendations and proposed implementation strategy

• ER proposal offers potential value and a demonstration is warranted.

• HPC to discontinue producing delta grids