NUEPA – CSF Media WorkshopAshish Dhawan30th October 2012

Over the last 20 years, technology in education has not been very effective…

But, the next decade may turn out to be very different.

What is changing?Disrupting Class

CustomizationCan every child get her own playlist?

1

Motivation & EngagementIs there a child who doesn’t like digital content?

2

DemocratizationCan we "Lift the Floor" for all children?

3

Potential of Personalized Learning

Textbooks

Sequential

Annual Tests

Minimal Peer to Peer Learning

Teacher

Digital Content

Adaptive

Instant Feedback

Collaborative

Coach

One Size Fits All Personalized

“Go” to Harvard and MIT without being admitted…

Disruption has begun in Higher-Ed and Test –Prep

Coursera provides online courses from the best universities for free with more than a million

enrolments

Udacity provides university-level

education which is high-quality and low

cost

Grockit is the world’s fastest growing test prep service which uses social networking to make

kids in an adaptive and personalized environment

Benchprep is world’s first and only

cross-platform test prep course company used by

200,000 students

EdX offers free courses from MIT,

Harvard, Berkeley and Texas

Western Governors University is an accredited online university offering online bachelor’s and

master’s degree programs with more than 30,000 students

Source: Company Websites

K-12 Ed-Tech Market Map

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

Source: CSF Analysis

ICT

Source: Educomp

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

The impact of use of ICT on learning outcomes is inconclusive

Overview• Teacher tool with interactive multimedia

content• Increasingly available in regional languages• Advantages include easy-to-explain content,

in-built assessments etc.• >20% penetration in the target market size of

1 lac schools• Capex of Rs. 2.5 – 3 lac per classroom but low

cost projectors may change that• Students are charged Rs. 120-150 pm as part

of the fee• Globally, the impact of ICT use on learning

outcomes is unclearChallenges• No third party assessment of impact of use on

learning outcomes in India• Teacher training has been ignored and hence

utilization is low• Little differentiation on content

Players Schools Focus

12,000 Diversified

6,000 Tier 2 & 3

3,000 Diversified

2000 Diversified

400 Tier 3 & 4

NA NA

300 Tier 3 & 4

NA NA

NA NA

ICT Private Schools - Market Landscape*

ICT could become an effective learning tool if the issues around teacher training and quality of

content are resolved

Source: Industry discussions, World Bank Info Dev, CSF research and analysis* Only private schools. These estimates are based on our current understanding and the actual numbers may vary

ContenteBooks

Source: Worldreader

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

Digital textbooks are changing the way our students learn

• eBooks crossed hardcover sales in Adult Category in Q1FY12 in the US

• Increasing e-book penetration: US (16%), UK (17%), Korea (12%) and India (2%)

• Digital textbooks first move into higher-ed - achieve 5% penetration in the US

• Governments in Korea, US and China push for use of digital textbooks in schools

• NCERT offers free digital textbooks for Grade 1- 12 in Hindi, English and Urdu

• 1000 books in a single device• Interactive and rich content - Text + videos +

animation + audio• Cheaper than printed books• Instantly updated• Ability to highlight, notes & search• Lighter backpacks

Kindle eBook readerDigital bookstore with over 1 million paid titles and 2.5 million free

iPad tabletDigital bookstore with 1.5 million titles

Nexus tabletBookstore with millions of free books

Nook eBook readerDigital bookstore with over 3 million titles

Kobo eBook readerDigital bookstore with nearly 3 million titles

Sony eBook readerDigital bookstore

Disruption led by 6 players with innovative hardware and redefined distribution

Disruption in publishing market Superior value proposition

India market is nascent with some early steps towards digitization. Drop in prices of tablets will the key growth driver

Source: AAP, Bowker Market Research, Company websites, CSF Analysis

ContentPaid Digital Content

Source: LearnNext

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

Digital is taking over traditional learning models

Growth in paid digital content category will be driven by demand for more curriculum linked content by students and parents

Business model in India

• Supplemental curriculum linked content for students and teachers

• Effective tool for personalized learning• Key reasons for adoption: easy access, freedom to

choose, interactive, curriculum linked and in-built assessments

• Multiple channels of adoption (internet and offline)– Cloud, USB, SD Card and CD ROM

• Marketing directly to consumers is tough -Conversion rate is ~2%

Challenges

• Quality of content needs to improve• Competition from free content• Low device penetration

School Home

• Blended Learning Schools

• Virtual Schools

• Supplemental• Advanced• Language• Test Prep

Florida Virtual SchoolK-12

ICT

B2C Players

Paid Digital Content

ICT – Extension of school

B2C – Only students/parents

Publishers – Bundling content

Not present in India

Source: Industry discussions, CSF analysis

Note: Indicative list of players

ContentOpen Educational Resources (OER)

Source: Sree Karpakavalli Vidyalaya Middle School (Students using Khan Academy)

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

High-quality free content is increasingly becoming available

• 3400 videos including K-12 math

• 400 million interactive problems

• 200 million views• Salman Khan, the

most watched teacher in the world, is available on Youtube

• Free K-12 digital textbooks for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)

• 10,000+ resources

• 17+ million views

• High quality, easy access and FREE• Licensed under Creative Commons which can

allow reuse, revise, remix and redistribution• Platforms which curate and share have emerged -

Creative Commons, Curriki etc.• Increasing integration of curriculum linked

content in classrooms

• Launched in June 2012

• Offers 200 online courses from 33 universities including Stanford, Princeton, Brown, Penn, Columbia etc.

• 1.6 million registered students in 190 countries

• Largest publisher of free and open textbooks

• Free courses from MIT, Harvard, Berkeley and Univ of Texas

• Nascent market in India - focus on translation into local languages, potential to make content using best teachers in the system

• Wide offline distribution possible as SD Cards can be inserted into phones and tablets

• IT for Change pilot in Karnataka to train govt. school teachers in using OER

Source: Company websites, CSF analysis

ContentApps

Source: Apple App Store

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

There is an App for everything…

• Point solutions which provide supplemental content that engage kids for a short time

• 80,000 educational apps are available. Mainly for early literacy, math, geography etc.

• 10x increase in educational app downloads from 25m in 2009 to 270m in 2011

• 87% education apps are free; paid apps have an average cost of $3.3

• iOS and Android have emerged as two major app platforms

• Need to aggregate and curate relevant apps as the number of available apps has increased

• Monetization of apps is still a challenge

Major app platforms• 550,000 apps for iPad,

iPhone and iTouch• 21 categories

including education• More than 30 billion

downloads• 600,000 apps for

android devices• More than 20 billion

downloads• More than 500 million

active device users• 90,000 apps for

blackberry mobiles• More than 3 billion

downloads• 88,000 apps for

windows based mobiles

Source: Company websites, McKinsey mEducation Report

…and 87% of these are available for free

Assessments

Source: www.durangoherald.com

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

No standardized assessment = No accountability

• No standardized assessments till Grade 10 • Less than 2% the size of the US market (>$2.7bn)• Currently only elite private schools use regular

standardized assessments• Why low-stake standardized tests?

• Monitor and evaluate national education system• Provide feedback to teachers, parents and

children• Provide information on trends in learning

outcomes• New digital assessments models are emerging –

GoToTest, EI Detailed Assessment tool etc.• Strong growth potential as various states push

education reforms and accountability initiatives. Formative assessments market to grow with introduction of CCE

• Increasing device penetration will move Assessments towards a digital centric model (Think, CAT!)

India Assessments Landscape

Source: OECD, The Parthenon Group Industry discussions

US Assessment Market 2009-10

$1.27bn $1.49bn

24% 18%

76% 82%

0%

50%

100%

High Stakes State-Level Tests

Classroom Assessment

Online Print

Platforms

Source: Fedena

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

Models which efficiently manage data and learning are now emergingOverview• Platforms enable creation, sharing and collaboration

of content:• Student: Student performance data, learning

management and student information (SIS)• Teachers: Teacher sharing and collaboration

• Most of these platforms are device & OS agnostic and provide offline access

• Global market for LMS / SIS is well developed; Indian market is nascent and fragmented

• IT@Schools in Kerala is using an open SIS platform across 15,000 schools covering 7 million students

• Emergence of several learning management platforms such as Edutor, AcrossWorld etc.

• TES UK has 500,000 free resources used by 2.1 million teachers. Recently launched in India

• Edmodo is a social learning network for teachers and students with more than 10 million registered users

• End-to-end platforms are emerging which integrate learning platform with student information, integrate assessments etc.

Source: CSF Analysis

Platform LandscapeType Details Players

Data Platforms

• Organize and analyze student and teacher data, both for admin and performance metrics

• Traditionally: school schedules, report cards etc.

Learning Platforms

• Facilitate management of learning process

• Traditionally: Class registers, study groups etc.

Devices

Source: The Jakarta Post

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

Tablet are becoming the preferred form factor for personalized learning• Much cheaper than laptops, small size, portable

and touch screen• Emerging as a major form factor in education:

• Digitized textbooks• Interactive apps for education• Viewing videos / animated content

• Fragmented market with 90 players by Q2 FY13• Central (Aakash) and State Government (UP, Goa,

Karnataka) push• International initiatives

• Turkey Faith project – 15m tablets sold to across 40,000 schools in 4 years

• Peru OLPC – More than 850,000 laptops distributed. However, program has shown no improvement in learning outcomes

• Thailand One Tablet Per Child Program - Almost 900,000 tablets ordered in June 2012

• Improving price performance will make tablets more affordable and the device of choice for personalized learning

Source: IDC, CyberMedia Research, CSF Analysis

2010-16F

CAGR: 139%

India Tablet Market Landscape

19

69

117

261

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012E 2016E

Global Tablet Sales 2010-16E (in millions)

Micromax 18%

Samsung 13%

iPad 12%

Others 56%

As the Peru OLPC experiment has shown, a device must be bundled with appropriate

content to make it an effective learning tool

1118

73

0

40

80

2011 2012E 2015E

India Smartphones Sales 2011-15E (in millions)

Mobile is emerging as a useful device for English language learning• India is the 2nd largest mobile market in the world

with 919m subscribers in March 2012• Strong application in English language learning,

assessments, teacher training and distance learning• Airtel is partnering with content providers

such as Britannica and LearnNext to offer supplemental content, encyclopaedias, and educational games

• People in China, Bangladesh , Korea and Indonesia are learning English through SMS and audio lessons using mobiles

• Urban Planet Mobile has over 100,000 subscribers in Indonesia

• BBC Janala aims to teach English to 25 million by 2017 in Bangladesh

• Vodafone pilot for Math homework using mobiles in South Africa

India Smartphone Landscape

Source: TRAI, McKinsey mEducation Report, Research and Markets

Smartphone sales CAGR: 60%

Overall mobile sales CAGR: 13%

• Smartphone is the largest growing segment with expected CAGR of 60% till 2015

• Entry level smartphones cost less than Rs. 4,000

Blended Learning

Source: ITS Learning

ICT

Content Assessments

Platforms

Devices

Blended Learning

Blended learning has the potential to disrupt the traditional school design

• International models• Why• Who all are doing this• Trends

Why Blended Learning?• Time: Learning is no longer restricted to the

school day or the school year• Place: Learning is no longer restricted to the

walls of the classroom• Path: Learning is no longer restricted to the

pedagogy used by the teacher. Interactive and adaptive software allows students to learn in a method that is customized to their needs.

• Pace: Learning is no longer restricted to the pace of an entire classroom of students.

Source: Digital Learning Now!, Innosight Institute

Rocketship Education Lab Rotation Model

Concept• Students rotate on a fixed schedule or at the

teacher’s discretion among locations on the brick-and-mortar campus within a given course or subject each day

• At least one of these spaces is a learning lab for predominantly online learning, while the additional classroom(s) house other learning modalities

Case Study• Rocketship Education provides education to 1,328

urban kids in K-5 in San Jose, California• Students learn 75% offline and 25% online in a

learning lab. Each student attends one block of Math/Science, one block of Learning Lab, and two blocks of Literacy/Social Studies each day

• Rocketship Schools are among the top 15 for academic performance among low-income schools in California. Results in $500,000 savings per school in traditional school expenditures that Rocketship reinvests in others parts of its model

Source: Classifying K-12 Blended Learning and The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning, Innosight Institute

Lab Rotation Model, Rocketship Education

Carpe Diem Collegiate High School and Middle SchoolIndividual-Rotation model

Concept

• Students rotate on an individually customized, fixed schedule among learning modalities, at least one of which is online learning within a given course or subject each day

• An algorithm or teacher sets individual student schedules

Case Study

• Carpe Diem Collegiate High School and Middle School provides education to 273 students in Grade 6-12 in Yuma, Arizona

• The school has 300 individual cubicles and computers. Students rotate throughout the day between online activities in the learning center and face-to-face classroom instruction, where a teacher re-teaches or enhances the material introduced online. Each rotation lasts 55 minutes. Students complete the online/face-to-face cycle 2 – 3 times a day

• In 2010, CDCHS ranked first in its county in student performance in math and reading and ranked among the top 10 percent of Arizona charter schools

Individual-Rotation model, Carpe Diem Collegiate High School and Middle School

Source: Classifying K-12 Blended Learning and The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning, Innosight Institute

Education technology is not a silver bullet…

Cautiously optimistic ― Historically, impact of use on learning outcomes is unclear and

open to debate―Peru OLPC: Research indicates no evidence that the program increased

learning in Math or Language

―Many initiatives have put technology before education

― Early signs to show that this may be changing―JPAL study on Pratham’s computer-assisted learning program for math

revealed that math scores increased by 0.47 standard deviation

―What works clearinghouse cites various studies which show improvement in math and reading skills in kids who were taught using technology

Source: Poverty Action Lab, World Bank Ed-Tech Blog, Inter-American Development Bank Report, What Works Clearinghouse, CSF Analysis

…but the next decade may turn out to be different

EdTech environment will change in next 3 – 5 years― High performance tablets for less than $50― Ubiquitous 4G network― Content explosion― Mapped to curriculum― Integrated platforms with assessments― Community and collaboration

Source: Poverty Action Lab, World Bank Ed-Tech Blog, Inter-American Development Bank Report, What Works Clearinghouse, CSF Analysis