Nuclear Weapons: The Final PandemicPreventing Proliferation and Achieving Abolition

The need for continuingscientific study of radiation effects

Prof. Sir E. D. WilliamsEmeritus Professor of Histopathology,

University of Cambridge

The Need for Continuing Study The Need for Continuing Study of Radiation Effectsof Radiation Effects

Dillwyn Williams Dillwyn Williams Cambridge Cambridge

There is no argument that the world would be a better There is no argument that the world would be a better place without nuclear weaponsplace without nuclear weapons

There is an argument about the use of nuclear power There is an argument about the use of nuclear power for energy productionfor energy production

The existence of nuclear power plants makes it more The existence of nuclear power plants makes it more difficult to enforce a nuclear weapons bandifficult to enforce a nuclear weapons ban

A nuclear power plant accident can expose huge A nuclear power plant accident can expose huge numbers of people to radiationnumbers of people to radiation

Storage of radioactive products carries long-term Storage of radioactive products carries long-term dangersdangers

Nuclear power may cause less global warming than Nuclear power may cause less global warming than conventional power generationconventional power generation

Making a rational assessment of the place Making a rational assessment of the place of nuclear power generation requires a of nuclear power generation requires a knowledge of the risks.knowledge of the risks.

Who determines the risks? Who determines the risks?

The Nuclear Industry ViewThe Nuclear Industry View The Chernobyl accident in 1986 was the result The Chernobyl accident in 1986 was the result

of a flawed reactor design that was operated of a flawed reactor design that was operated with inadequately trained personnel and without with inadequately trained personnel and without proper regard for safety.proper regard for safety.

28 people died within four months from 28 people died within four months from radiation or thermal burns, 19 have radiation or thermal burns, 19 have subsequently died, and there have been around subsequently died, and there have been around nine deaths from thyroid cancer apparently due nine deaths from thyroid cancer apparently due to the accident: total 56 fatalities as of 2004.to the accident: total 56 fatalities as of 2004.

An authoritative UN report in 2000 concluded An authoritative UN report in 2000 concluded that there is no scientific evidence of any that there is no scientific evidence of any significant radiation-related health effects to significant radiation-related health effects to most people exposed. This was confirmed in a most people exposed. This was confirmed in a very thorough 2005-06 study.very thorough 2005-06 study.

World Nuclear Association Chernobyl information, ’07World Nuclear Association Chernobyl information, ’07 <world-nuclear.org/info/chernobyl/info07/html><world-nuclear.org/info/chernobyl/info07/html>

The Radiation Activist’s View.The Radiation Activist’s View.ECRR 2006: CHERNOBYL 20 YEARS AFTERECRR 2006: CHERNOBYL 20 YEARS AFTER

““Using conservative methodology based on the Using conservative methodology based on the external radiation risk factors deduced from the external radiation risk factors deduced from the Japanese A-Bomb studies, I would estimate that the Japanese A-Bomb studies, I would estimate that the eventual death toll from the Chernobyl disaster would eventual death toll from the Chernobyl disaster would be: be: 290 due to direct 290 due to direct radiation damage 899,310 to 1,786,657 due radiation damage 899,310 to 1,786,657 due to fatal cancers”to fatal cancers”

Dr Rosalie Bertell, IICPH Toronto, in Dr Rosalie Bertell, IICPH Toronto, in www.www.euradcomeuradcom.org/publications/.org/publications/chernobylebookchernobylebook..pdfpdf

The Official ViewThe Official View Chernobyl: The True Scale of the Chernobyl: The True Scale of the

Accident. Accident. 20 years later a UN report Provides Definitive 20 years later a UN report Provides Definitive

Answers and Ways to Repair Lives.Answers and Ways to Repair Lives.

Opening paragraph Opening paragraph “A total of up to four thousand people could “A total of up to four thousand people could eventually die of radiation exposure from the eventually die of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) accident Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) accident nearly 20 years ago, an international team of nearly 20 years ago, an international team of more than 100 scientists have concluded”.more than 100 scientists have concluded”. WHO/IAEA/UNDP press release, 2005WHO/IAEA/UNDP press release, 2005

`` ``

““Deliberate omission or outrageous error”Deliberate omission or outrageous error” ““Not scientifically acceptable”Not scientifically acceptable” ““Selective and misleading”Selective and misleading”

The Nuclear Industry ViewThe Nuclear Industry View The reported excess of thyroid cancers in children The reported excess of thyroid cancers in children

and adults who were exposed to Chernobyl fallout is and adults who were exposed to Chernobyl fallout is not consistent with the knowledge of the effects of not consistent with the knowledge of the effects of medical use of iodine-131. medical use of iodine-131.

The report of an “excess” appears to be an effect of The report of an “excess” appears to be an effect of the medical screening, and consists only of a small the medical screening, and consists only of a small fraction of the normal occult thyroid cancer fraction of the normal occult thyroid cancer incidence that occurs in populations unexposed to incidence that occurs in populations unexposed to iodine-131. iodine-131.

In centuries to come, the Chernobyl catastrophe will In centuries to come, the Chernobyl catastrophe will be seen as a proof that nuclear power is a safe be seen as a proof that nuclear power is a safe means of energy production.means of energy production.

Jaworowski,Jaworowski, EIR 2004, Science and Technology, 58-63, quoted in <world-EIR 2004, Science and Technology, 58-63, quoted in <world-

nuclear.org/info/chernobyl/info07/html>nuclear.org/info/chernobyl/info07/html>

PAPILLARY THYROID CARCINOMAPAPILLARY THYROID CARCINOMABELARUS, 2000 and 2001BELARUS, 2000 and 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

-1 IU 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Age at exposure

The Epidemiologist’s ViewThe Epidemiologist’s ViewEstimates of the cancer burden in Europe from Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident.radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident.

Headline figure:- Deaths from radiation induced Headline figure:- Deaths from radiation induced cancers, 17,850.cancers, 17,850.

Fuller information:- Deaths from radiation induced Fuller information:- Deaths from radiation induced cancers, in Europe up to 2065, 7,600 – 42,400.cancers, in Europe up to 2065, 7,600 – 42,400.

Set in context, deaths from radiation induced cancers, Set in context, deaths from radiation induced cancers, 17,850, deaths from cancers due to other causes, 17,850, deaths from cancers due to other causes, 130,525,000.130,525,000.

Deaths from radiation induced cancers, 0.001% of all Deaths from radiation induced cancers, 0.001% of all cancer deaths. cancer deaths. Cardis et al Int J Cancer. 2006 Sep 15;119(6):1224-35Cardis et al Int J Cancer. 2006 Sep 15;119(6):1224-35..

A Radiobiologist/Pathologist’s ViewA Radiobiologist/Pathologist’s View “…“…estimates depend on the assumed risk estimates depend on the assumed risk

coefficient, but of the order of 60,000 such coefficient, but of the order of 60,000 such fatalities in total can be estimated, based on fatalities in total can be estimated, based on the collective dose estimated by the United the collective dose estimated by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR 1988), less than Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR 1988), less than half of which would derive from the declared half of which would derive from the declared contaminated areas”. contaminated areas”. Baverstock and Williams,2006, Env Health Perspect 114, 1312-1317Baverstock and Williams,2006, Env Health Perspect 114, 1312-1317

The Environmental activist viewThe Environmental activist view

Health impact of Chernobyl 'grossly Health impact of Chernobyl 'grossly underestimated' says Greenpeaceunderestimated' says Greenpeace

It is estimated that the Chernobyl accident It is estimated that the Chernobyl accident will cause some 270 000 excess cancers will cause some 270 000 excess cancers worldwide, of which 90,000 will be fatal. worldwide, of which 90,000 will be fatal. Some 14,000 of these deaths will be from Some 14,000 of these deaths will be from thyroid cancers, 8,000 from leukaemias thyroid cancers, 8,000 from leukaemias and 71,000 from solid cancers.and 71,000 from solid cancers.

Press Release, Tuesday, April 18, 2006Press Release, Tuesday, April 18, 2006www.greenpeace.org.uk/media/pressreleaseswww.greenpeace.org.uk/media/pressreleases

Estimates of Cancer Deaths from Estimates of Cancer Deaths from ChernobylChernobyl

Nuclear Industry: 56 up to 2004, ‘most Nuclear Industry: 56 up to 2004, ‘most people unaffected’people unaffected’

WHO/IAEA/UNDP: press release, 4,000, body of WHO/IAEA/UNDP: press release, 4,000, body of report, 9,000report, 9,000

Cardis,17,850 (7,600-42,400)Cardis,17,850 (7,600-42,400) Baverstock and Williams, 60,000Baverstock and Williams, 60,000 Greenpeace, one estimate, 90,000Greenpeace, one estimate, 90,000 Bertell, 1,343,000 (899,310-1,786,657)Bertell, 1,343,000 (899,310-1,786,657)

Why such huge discrepancies?Why such huge discrepancies?

The main factor responsible is a difference in The main factor responsible is a difference in views on the risks of low dose exposures.views on the risks of low dose exposures.

Chernobyl led to the exposure of a few Chernobyl led to the exposure of a few hundreds to very high dose external radiation, hundreds to very high dose external radiation, and a few hundred thousands to high dose and a few hundred thousands to high dose internal radiation. Hundreds of millions were internal radiation. Hundreds of millions were exposed to very low doses from fallout exposed to very low doses from fallout

Linear No-threshold HypothesisLinear No-threshold Hypothesis Generally accepted view:- carcinogenic effect of Generally accepted view:- carcinogenic effect of

radiation is directly related to dose, even down radiation is directly related to dose, even down to lowest doses.to lowest doses.

Minority view:- efficiency of repair mechanisms Minority view:- efficiency of repair mechanisms is also affected by dose, and below 100mSv the is also affected by dose, and below 100mSv the LNT greatly overestimates carcinogenic effect.LNT greatly overestimates carcinogenic effect.

Minority view:- at very low doses the Minority view:- at very low doses the carcinogenic effect is undetectable and can be carcinogenic effect is undetectable and can be ignored.ignored.

Minority view:- low dose radiation is beneficial.Minority view:- low dose radiation is beneficial.

It is essential that studies of low dose It is essential that studies of low dose effects in man are continued, particularly effects in man are continued, particularly in the context of the Chernobyl accidentin the context of the Chernobyl accident

Non-thyroid cancers after ChernobylNon-thyroid cancers after Chernobyl Germ-line effects. These were not found after Germ-line effects. These were not found after

Nagasaki/Hiroshima, but were found in children Nagasaki/Hiroshima, but were found in children of parents exposed to Chernobyl falloutof parents exposed to Chernobyl fallout

Significance of minisatellite instabilitySignificance of minisatellite instability Impaired intellectual developmentImpaired intellectual development Birth defects, eg Downs SyndromeBirth defects, eg Downs Syndrome Heart diseaseHeart disease US studiesUS studies

About 1 Billion dollars is being spent on About 1 Billion dollars is being spent on fitting a new roof to the Chernobyl reactor fitting a new roof to the Chernobyl reactor

but US studies of the effects on the but US studies of the effects on the exposed population are being terminatedexposed population are being terminated

Mutation RETPTC3 RETPTC1 ? BRAF,RAS, PAX8Tumour Pap Ca Pap Ca ? Pap Ca ?Foll CaMorphology Solid variant Classical ? EncapsulatedClinical Aggressive Typical ? “benign” / typicalLatency 4-10yrs 7-17yrs ? 15- (start-peak)

ConclusionsConclusions Estimates of deaths due to cancer resulting Estimates of deaths due to cancer resulting

from the Chernobyl accident vary by several from the Chernobyl accident vary by several orders of magnitude.orders of magnitude.

The size of extreme estimates seems to The size of extreme estimates seems to correlate with the bias of the estimator.correlate with the bias of the estimator.

It is essential that studies of the It is essential that studies of the consequences of Chernobyl continue so that consequences of Chernobyl continue so that the true effects of a nuclear accident can be the true effects of a nuclear accident can be knownknown

Catastrophe sanitaire à TchernobylCatastrophe sanitaire à Tchernobyl L'OMS coupable de non assistance à L'OMS coupable de non assistance à

populations en danger !populations en danger ! www.independentwho.infowww.independentwho.info

CONFERENCE DE PRESSE Jeudi 26 avril CONFERENCE DE PRESSE Jeudi 26 avril à 10h00 Salle de presse N°2 « The library à 10h00 Salle de presse N°2 « The library » Palais des Nations» Palais des Nations

““In the absence of a properly coordinated In the absence of a properly coordinated and international approach to monitoring and international approach to monitoring incidences and trends in both cancer and incidences and trends in both cancer and noncancer morbidity …. a huge ( though noncancer morbidity …. a huge ( though hopefully unique) opportunity to learn fully hopefully unique) opportunity to learn fully the long term consequences of such a the long term consequences of such a disaster has been missed”disaster has been missed”

The Chernobyl Catastrophe, Consequences on Human Health, The Chernobyl Catastrophe, Consequences on Human Health, Greenpeace, 2006Greenpeace, 2006