NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY: TREATY:

A REGIME IN NEED OF INTENSIVE A REGIME IN NEED OF INTENSIVE CARECARE

International Organizations and Nonproliferation ProgramInternational Organizations and Nonproliferation Program

Center For Nonproliferation StudiesCenter For Nonproliferation Studies21 January 200321 January 2003

NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY: TREATY:

A REGIME IN NEED OF INTENSIVE A REGIME IN NEED OF INTENSIVE CARECARE

Course outlineCourse outline

Part I : Overview of the nuclear nonproliferation Part I : Overview of the nuclear nonproliferation regimeregime

Part II : The NPTPart II : The NPT• Overview of major developments in the NPTOverview of major developments in the NPT• Challenges to the regimeChallenges to the regime• Will the regime survive?Will the regime survive?

WHAT IS NON-PROLIFERATION?WHAT IS NON-PROLIFERATION?

Prevention of the spread of weapons of mass Prevention of the spread of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological) destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological) and their means of delivery*and their means of delivery*

• Horizontal nuclear proliferationHorizontal nuclear proliferation: spread of weapons to : spread of weapons to states not currently possessing nuclear weaponsstates not currently possessing nuclear weapons

• Vertical nuclear proliferationVertical nuclear proliferation: increase in number and : increase in number and destructiveness of nuclear weapons within a state already destructiveness of nuclear weapons within a state already possessing thempossessing them

** Mostly applicable to nuclear weapons as biological and chemical weapons are Mostly applicable to nuclear weapons as biological and chemical weapons are banned banned

WHAT IS DISARMAMENTWHAT IS DISARMAMENT ? ?

Total elimination of weapons of mass Total elimination of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear destruction, including nuclear weapons, through the prohibition on weapons, through the prohibition on development, production and use development, production and use and destruction of all such weapons and destruction of all such weapons

WHY IS NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT WHY IS NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND NONPROLIFERATION A AND NONPROLIFERATION A

PRIORITY?PRIORITY?

30,000 NUCLEAR WEAPONS30,000 NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Estimated 30 000 nuclear warheads Estimated 30 000 nuclear warheads worldwideworldwide

5 NPT nuclear weapons states (China, 5 NPT nuclear weapons states (China, France, Russia, UK, USA)France, Russia, UK, USA)

3 states outside the NPT (India, Israel, 3 states outside the NPT (India, Israel, Pakistan)Pakistan)

North Korea, Iraq, IranNorth Korea, Iraq, Iran Others?Others?

Hiroshima: August 6, 1945Nagasaki: August 9, 1945

NUCLEAR WEAPON DELIVERY NUCLEAR WEAPON DELIVERY SYSTEMSSYSTEMS

Delivery systems capable Delivery systems capable of delivering nuclear of delivering nuclear weaponsweapons

• Ballistic missilesBallistic missiles• Cruise missilesCruise missiles• ArtilleryArtillery• RocketsRockets• SubmarinesSubmarines• AircraftAircraft• OtherOther

WHAT IS THE NUCLEAR NON -WHAT IS THE NUCLEAR NON -PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

REGIME?REGIME?

Collective term for international Collective term for international initiatives to prevent the spread of initiatives to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons leading to their nuclear weapons leading to their total eliminationtotal elimination

THE TREATY ON THE NON-THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR

WEAPONSWEAPONS

Parties: 188 Non-parties: India, Israel, Pakistan

A cornerstone of global security

Embodies the international community's efforts to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons and its aspirations for global disarmament, while also facilitating cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy under safeguards

Entails commitments by both nuclear-weapon and non-nuclear-weapon states

Verification of compliance with nonproliferation undertakings through the application of safeguards was conferred on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Encourages & assists research, development and Encourages & assists research, development and practical application of atomic energy for peaceful practical application of atomic energy for peaceful uses throughout the worlduses throughout the world

Establishes & administers safeguards designed to Establishes & administers safeguards designed to ensure that the use of nuclear energy is not used ensure that the use of nuclear energy is not used for military purposesfor military purposes

Applies safeguards to relevant activities at the Applies safeguards to relevant activities at the request of Member Statesrequest of Member States

Applies mandatory Applies mandatory comprehensive safeguards incomprehensive safeguards in NNWS to the NPT & otherNNWS to the NPT & other international treatiesinternational treaties

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA)ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA)

IAEA SAFEGUARDS SYSTEMIAEA SAFEGUARDS SYSTEM

• extensive set of technical extensive set of technical measures by which the measures by which the IAEA Secretariat IAEA Secretariat independently verifies the independently verifies the correctness and the correctness and the completeness of the completeness of the declarations made by declarations made by States about their nuclear States about their nuclear material and activitiesmaterial and activities

• confidence‑building tools of confidence‑building tools of the nuclear non-the nuclear non-proliferation regime. proliferation regime.

Why are safeguards Why are safeguards important?important?

Prevent the proliferation of Prevent the proliferation of nuclear weaponsnuclear weapons

Foster the beneficial uses of Foster the beneficial uses of atomic energyatomic energy

Provide confidence and Provide confidence and build trustbuild trust

Continual monitoring of nuclear material to ensure it is not used for military purposes

INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS:INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS: 3 key components3 key components

AccountancyAccountancy: reporting by states on the location : reporting by states on the location of fissionable material under their control, on of fissionable material under their control, on stocks of fuel and of spent fuel, on processig stocks of fuel and of spent fuel, on processig aand nd reprocessing of nuclear materials, etc.reprocessing of nuclear materials, etc.

Containment & SurveillanceContainment & Surveillance: techniques such as : techniques such as seals or video recording inside a facilityseals or video recording inside a facility

InspectionInspection: by IAEA inspectors, checking : by IAEA inspectors, checking instrumetns and seals, verifying bookkeeping, instrumetns and seals, verifying bookkeeping, confirming physical inventories of fuel or spent confirming physical inventories of fuel or spent fuelfuel

COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATYBAN TREATY

Bans any nuclear weapon test explosion or any Bans any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion (true zero yield)other nuclear explosion (true zero yield)

Verification regime includes an international Verification regime includes an international monitoring system (IMS) composed of monitoring system (IMS) composed of seismological, radionuclide (16 laboratories), seismological, radionuclide (16 laboratories), hydro acoustic and infrasound monitoring; hydro acoustic and infrasound monitoring; consultation and clarification; on-site inspections; consultation and clarification; on-site inspections; and confidence building measuresand confidence building measures

Treaty provides for measures to redress a Treaty provides for measures to redress a situation and to ensure compliance, including situation and to ensure compliance, including sanctions, and for settlement of disputes. sanctions, and for settlement of disputes. Conference of State Parties or Executive Council Conference of State Parties or Executive Council can bring the issue to the attention of the United can bring the issue to the attention of the United NationsNations

COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY ORGANIZATIONBAN TREATY ORGANIZATION

Adopted by UNGA Adopted by UNGA 9/24/19969/24/1996

Signed by 165 State with Signed by 165 State with 93 State Parties93 State Parties

Entry into force requires Entry into force requires ratification of 44 specific ratification of 44 specific States with nuclear power States with nuclear power capacities: 41 have signed capacities: 41 have signed - only 31 ratified - only 31 ratified

Non-signatories include Non-signatories include India, North Korea, and India, North Korea, and PakistanPakistan

The US (led the effort to The US (led the effort to conclude a CTBT and first conclude a CTBT and first to sign) and China, among to sign) and China, among those that have signed but those that have signed but not ratifiednot ratified

U.S. Senate voted in 1999 U.S. Senate voted in 1999 not to ratify not to ratify

Global verification regimeGlobal verification regimeWorldwide network of 321 Worldwide network of 321

monitoring stations built & monitoring stations built & run by the host countries in run by the host countries in cooperation with the cooperation with the (Provisional) Technical (Provisional) Technical Secretariat (some 100 Secretariat (some 100 stations already transmit stations already transmit data to the International data to the International Data Center (IDC) in Vienna Data Center (IDC) in Vienna via satellite-based global via satellite-based global communications communications infrastructure)infrastructure)

On-site inspections and On-site inspections and confidence-building confidence-building measures measures

Administrated by a Administrated by a (Provisional) Technical (Provisional) Technical Secretariat Secretariat

START I & IISTART I & II

START ISTART I limits the total number of limits the total number of

strategic nuclear delivery strategic nuclear delivery vehicles for the US and vehicles for the US and Russia to 1,600 each, Russia to 1,600 each, warheads to 6,000 each, warheads to 6,000 each, warheads mounted on warheads mounted on ballistic missiles to 4,900 ballistic missiles to 4,900 each, warheads mounted each, warheads mounted on mobile ICBMs to 1,100 on mobile ICBMs to 1,100 each, and the total ballistic each, and the total ballistic missile throw-weight for missile throw-weight for each party to 3,600 metric each party to 3,600 metric tons (t)tons (t)

Bans the testing and Bans the testing and development of certain development of certain types of ballistic missilestypes of ballistic missiles

START IISTART II

limits strategic weapons for limits strategic weapons for each party, with reductions each party, with reductions to be implemented in two to be implemented in two phases:phases:

Phase I reduce total deployed Phase I reduce total deployed strategic nuclear warheads strategic nuclear warheads to 3,800-4,250to 3,800-4,250

Phase II total number of Phase II total number of deployed strategic nuclear deployed strategic nuclear warheads may not exceed warheads may not exceed 3,000-3,5003,000-3,500

Both US and Russia have Both US and Russia have ratified ratified

US declared withdrawal from US declared withdrawal from ABM Treaty on 13 June ABM Treaty on 13 June followed by the Russian followed by the Russian Federation announcement Federation announcement that it would withdrawal that it would withdrawal from the START IIfrom the START II

NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE TREATIES TREATIES

More than 110 states coveredMore than 110 states covered

AntarcticAntarctic Latin America and the Caribbean (Tlatelolco)Latin America and the Caribbean (Tlatelolco) South Pacific (Rarotonga)South Pacific (Rarotonga) South Asia (Bangkok)South Asia (Bangkok) Africa (Pelindaba)Africa (Pelindaba) MongoliaMongolia Central Asia (?)Central Asia (?) Middle East (?)Middle East (?) South East Asia (?)South East Asia (?)

UN SECURITY COUNCILUN SECURITY COUNCIL

Nonproliferation accomplishmentsNonproliferation accomplishments:: mandatory sanctions against Iraq mandatory sanctions against Iraq Counter-Terrorism Committee Counter-Terrorism Committee

exchanges information on the exchanges information on the possession of WMD by terrorist groupspossession of WMD by terrorist groups

responded to 1998 nuclear tests by responded to 1998 nuclear tests by India and Pakistan -- denied NWS India and Pakistan -- denied NWS statusstatus

recognizing negative security recognizing negative security assurances by the NWS in April 1995assurances by the NWS in April 1995

urged all States to pursue in good faith urged all States to pursue in good faith effective measures relating to nuclear effective measures relating to nuclear disarmament and on a treaty on disarmament and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international under strict and effective international controlcontrol

declared the proliferation of all WMD declared the proliferation of all WMD constitutes a threat to international constitutes a threat to international peace and securitypeace and security

Organs established by the UNSC:Organs established by the UNSC:Monitoring, Verification and Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC):(UNMOVIC):

a reinforced, ongoing monitoring and a reinforced, ongoing monitoring and verification system to ensure Iraqi verification system to ensure Iraqi compliance with Security Council compliance with Security Council resolutionsresolutions

Undertake the responsibilities of the former Undertake the responsibilities of the former (UNSCOM)(UNSCOM)

Special Commission on Iraq Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM): (UNSCOM):

Established for the purposes of eliminating Established for the purposes of eliminating Iraq’s capabilities vis-à-vis WMD and Iraq’s capabilities vis-à-vis WMD and ballistic missiles ballistic missiles

Promote the establishment and maintenance of international Promote the establishment and maintenance of international peace and security, including through disarmament and the peace and security, including through disarmament and the establishment of a system for the regulation of armaments.establishment of a system for the regulation of armaments.

15 members: five permanent members: China, France, Russia, UK 15 members: five permanent members: China, France, Russia, UK USA; and 10 non-permanent members USA; and 10 non-permanent members

PART IIPART II

THE TREATY ON THE NON-THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR

WEAPONS (NPT)WEAPONS (NPT)

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

Opened for signature on June 12, Opened for signature on June 12, 1968, signed by 62 states 1968, signed by 62 states including 3 depositary including 3 depositary governments (US, USSR, UK)governments (US, USSR, UK)

UN General Assembly approved UN General Assembly approved NPT text on March 11, 1968NPT text on March 11, 1968

Entered into force: 1970Entered into force: 1970 Extended indefinitely: 1995Extended indefinitely: 1995

THE NPT: A DEAL BETWEEN THE THE NPT: A DEAL BETWEEN THE “HAVES” AND THE “HAVE-NOTS”“HAVES” AND THE “HAVE-NOTS”

Nuclear Weapon States (NWS)Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) – (China, France, the Russian – (China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States):Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States):• may retain their nuclear arsenals; may retain their nuclear arsenals; • may not transfer nuclear weapons to any one;may not transfer nuclear weapons to any one;• may not assist any NNWS to acquire, manufacture or control may not assist any NNWS to acquire, manufacture or control

nuclear weapons; andnuclear weapons; and• commit to pursuing negotiations in good faith towards ending commit to pursuing negotiations in good faith towards ending

the nuclear arms race and achieving nuclear disarmament. the nuclear arms race and achieving nuclear disarmament.

Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) – (Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) – (defined as those states that had not detonated a nuclear device prior to January 1, 1967)• must not build, acquire or possess nuclear weapons;must not build, acquire or possess nuclear weapons;• may research, produce, and use nuclear energy for peaceful may research, produce, and use nuclear energy for peaceful

purposes; and purposes; and • must accept safeguards (audits and intrusive on-site must accept safeguards (audits and intrusive on-site

monitoring) on all of their nuclear activities and materials to monitoring) on all of their nuclear activities and materials to verify they are not being used for nuclear weapons.verify they are not being used for nuclear weapons.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

Security cannot be achieved through the continued reliance on Security cannot be achieved through the continued reliance on nuclear weapons, but only through international cooperation in nuclear weapons, but only through international cooperation in developing and maintaining effective, binding, and verifiable developing and maintaining effective, binding, and verifiable multilateral agreements such as embodied in the NPT and the multilateral agreements such as embodied in the NPT and the CTBT CTBT

Vertical and horizontal proliferation should be given equal priorityVertical and horizontal proliferation should be given equal priority Fulfillment of NWS commitments is integral to maintaining the NPT Fulfillment of NWS commitments is integral to maintaining the NPT

itself - if NNWS are to be convinced of the continuing value of not itself - if NNWS are to be convinced of the continuing value of not pursuing nuclear weapons and staying within the NPT, they will pursuing nuclear weapons and staying within the NPT, they will need to be convinced that the NNWS are taking active steps need to be convinced that the NNWS are taking active steps towards eliminating their nuclear arsenals and decreasing rather towards eliminating their nuclear arsenals and decreasing rather than increasing the changes of these weapons being usedthan increasing the changes of these weapons being used

If the NWS fail to adequately address these concerns, the nuclear If the NWS fail to adequately address these concerns, the nuclear nonproliferation regime may be unraveling by the time the 2005 nonproliferation regime may be unraveling by the time the 2005 NPT Review Conference convenes - litmus test for undertakings NPT Review Conference convenes - litmus test for undertakings given in 1995 and 2000given in 1995 and 2000