Nuclear Dynamics in Africa: A Russian View

Anton Khlopkov, Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) Pretoria, South Africa, May 5, 2016

Presenta(onoverview

•  PartI:Africa’snuclearplans•  PartII:Russia’snuclearexport•  PartIII:ProspectsforRussia-Africanuclearcooperation

•  PartIV:Q&A,comments

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PartI:Africa’sNuclearEnergyPlans

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Key Issues in Africa’s Energy Sector •  LowaccessandinsufBicientcapacity–Onlyabout24%ofthepopulationofsub-

SaharanAfricahasaccesstoelectricity.ExcludingSouthAfrica,theentireinstalledgenerationcapacityofsub-SaharanAfricaisonly28Gigawatts,equivalenttothatofArgentina.

•  Poorreliability-Africanmanufacturingenterprisesexperiencepoweroutagesonaverage56daysperyear.Asaresult,Birmslose6%ofsalesrevenues.Whereback-upgenerationislimited,lossescanbeashighas20%.

•  Highcosts-PowertariffsinmostpartsofthedevelopingworldfallintherangeofUS$0.04toUS$0.08perkilowatt-hour.However,inSub-SaharanAfrica,theaveragetariffisUS$0.13perkilowatt-hour.Incountriesdependentondiesel-basedsystems,tariffsarehigherstill.Givenpoorreliability,manyBirmsoperatetheirowndieselgeneratorsattwotothreetimesthecostwithattendantenvironmentalcosts.

•  Nuclearenergyisamongavailableoptions-Over45countriesareactivelyconsideringembarkinguponnuclearpowerprogrammes.Amongthemare:Algeria,Egypt,Ghana,Kenya,Morocco,Namibia,Nigeria,Senegal,Tanzania,Tunisia,Uganda(morethan25%fromthetotalnumber).Nuclearenergycontributesabout5%toSouthAfrica’senergymix.

Sources:TheWorldBank,IAEA

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Africa’s Nuclear Energy Plans

•  Algeria:toestablish2,400MWofnuclearpower(2units)by2030•  Egypt:4,800MW(4units)by2030•  Ghana:tooperatetheBirstnuclearpowerreactor(1,000MW)by2025•  Kenya:4,000MW(4units)by2033•  Morocco:tooperatetheBirstnuclearpowerreactorby2030•  Nigeria:4,000MW(4units)by2027•  SouthAfrica:toadd9,600MW(6-8units)ofnuclearpowerby2030

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Africa and Nuclear Technologies: Overview

•  55countries(54AUmembers+Morocco)•  ResearchReactors–5inoperation(Algeria–2,Egypt–1,Morocco–1,SouthAfrica–1)(2016)

•  Othertypesofnuclearresearchinstallationsinoperation–Ghana,Nigeria(miniatureneutronsource),andLibya(criticalassembly)(2016)

•  1NPP,2NuclearPowerReactors(KoebergNPP,SouthAfrica)•  4UraniumProducers(Malawi,Namibia,Niger,SouthAfrica)

–  ~15%ofglobalproduction(2014)–  2outof10largest-producinguraniumminesareinAfrica(SOMAIR,Niger~5%;LangerHeinrich,Namibia~4%)(2014)

•  Mo-99~10%ofglobalproduction(SouthAfrica,Safari-1)(2013)

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Africa and Nuclear Nonproliferation

•  SouthAfricaistheonlycountryinthehistorythathasgaveupitsnuclearweaponsprogramandhasdismantledits(small)nucleararsenal

•  PelindabaTreaty-AfricanNuclearWeaponFreeZoneTreaty(SignedinCairoonApril11,1996;enteredintoforceonJuly15,2009)

•  RoleofAfricandiplomatsintheBieldisgrowing–ThomasMarkram(UNODA),JeanDuPreez(CTBT),AbdulSamadMinty,(IAEADGcandidate,2009)

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PartII:Russia’snuclearexport

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Russia in the World Market

•  Uraniumproduction~7%•  Uraniumconversion~20%•  Enrichment~45%•  Nuclearfuel~17%•  NPPsconstruction~25%•  SNFreprocessing~10%•  SCRosatomExportSales(2015)~USD6,4bn.•  ForeignorderstoSCRosatomupto2030(2015)>110bln.

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Nonproliferation/nuclearsecuritystandardsofintergovernmentalagreements(1)

•  Russiawillsupplynuclearfuelinaformofmanufacturedcompletefuelassembliesforthewholeperiodofnuclearpowerplantoperation

•  SpentnuclearfuelwillbereturnedtoRussiafortemporarystorageandreprocessing

•  AAAcountryshouldensurethatthenuclearfuelwillbeusedexclusivelyattheagreednuclearpowerplant

•  RussiawillensurethetrainingoftheAAAcountryspecialistsintheBieldofNPPsoperation,maintenance,aswellasintheBieldofregulation

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Nonproliferation/nuclearsecuritystandardsofintergovernmentalagreements(2)

•  Nuclearandnon-nuclearmaterials,andequipmentreceivedwithintheframeworkoftheagreement–  shallnotbeusedforthemanufactureofnuclearweaponsorforothermilitarypurposes;

–  shallbeunderIAEASafeguards;–  shallnotbere-exportedortransferredtothethirdpartieswithoutthewrittenconsentoftheRussianFederation;

–  shallnotbemodiBied,includingfurtherenrichmentofLEUsuppliedintheformofnuclearfuelandreprocessingofspentnuclearfuel;

–  shallbeprovidedwithphysicalprotectionatalevelnotlowerthanthelevelsrecommendedbyINFCICR/225/Rev.5.

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PartIII:ProspectsforRussia-Africanuclearcoopera(on

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Areas for Russia-Africa nuclear cooperation •  Uraniumproduction:RosatomOperatesMkujuRiverUraniumMine

developmentprojectinTanzania•  Uraniumenrichment:RosatomsuppliesLEUforKoebergNPPfuel

fabrication•  Nuclearpowerplantconstruction:Rosatomconductsnegotiationswitha

fewcountriesoftheregion,includingAlgeria,Egypt,Morocco,andSouthAfrica

•  NuclearfuelsupplyandSNFremoval:FutureoptionforpowerreactorsofRussianandwesterndesign,locatedintheregion

•  Personneltraining:AgreementsignedbetweenNWU(RSA)andROSATOM-CICE&T(Russia)(2016)

•  ResearchReactorsconstruction:Egypt,Libya(built),Ethiopia,SouthAfrica(consultations)

•  Assistanceinlegislativeandregulatorybasisdevelopment:uponrequest

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PartIV:Q&A,comments

Contactinforma(on:AntonKhlopkov

Director,CenterforEnergyandSecurityStudies(CENESS)khlopkov@ceness-russia.org

+7(495)227-0829

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