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N ti l C f f St t National Conference of State Legislatures
Fueling North America’s Energy Future
July 25 2010 LouisvilleJuly 25, 2010 • Louisville
Robert Ineson • IHS CERA Senior Director
CONFIDENTIAL© 2010, All rights reserved, IHS CERA Inc., 55 Cambridge Parkway, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
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Overview
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• An “evolution” in natural gas drilling and completion technology has led to sharp increases in US gas production
• Three key technologies have unlocked gas trapped in shale formations
S b f t i i— Subsurface computer imaging— Horizontal drilling— Hydraulic “fraccing”
• These technologies are not new, so even producers were surprised
• Shale skeptics remain vocal, but the weight of evidence is accumulating
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Unconventional Gas Has Led to Very Rapid Production Increases in the Lower 48
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58
60 July 2008:
56.3 Bcf per day
Shut ins dueto low prices
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56
February 2009:
June 2010:59.0 Bcf per day
48
50
52 Bcfperday
February 2009:57.4 Bcf per day
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46 January 2007:
49.2 Bcf per dayHurricane Ike
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42
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: IHS CERA.
Increase in Initial Production Rates
444
1,400
1,000
1,200 1995
1996
1997
1998
800McfperDay
1998
1999
2000
2001
400
600Day2002
2003
2004
2005
0
200
2005
2006
2007
2008
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: IHS CERA.
01995 2000 2005 2010
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Current North American Unconventional Gas HotspotsHotspots
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: IHS CERA.00112-12
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US Natural Gas Reserves and Resources
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: EIA, PGC, and IHS CERA.00112-27
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Breakeven Henry Hub Price for Natural Gas Resources in Analyzed PlaysResources in Analyzed Plays
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Source: IHS CERA.Note: Proved, possible, and potential resources.00112-6
Environmental Issues
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• Fear of contamination of water supplies
• Amount of water used during fraccing• Amount of water used during fraccing
• Surface spills
• Noise and traffic during drilling
• Regulatory treatment is unlikely to derail development
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
p
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Schematic of a Shale Well
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.90802-10
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US Residential Electricity Consumption per Household, by End Use, 1977–2006
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, y ,
14,000
10,000
12,000Other
Ranges/Ovens
6,000
8,000kWh per
Household
Lighting
Freezers
R f i t
4,000
6,000 Refrigerators
Water Heating
Space Cooling
0
2,000
1977 1987 1997 2006
Space Heating
© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Data sources: for 1977 data, US Department of Energy (DOE), Building Energy Use Survey, Second Edition; for 1987 data, Electric Power Research Institute, Energy Efficiency Study; for 1997 data, DOE 2000 Annual Energy Outlook; and for 2006 data, Tiax, Residential Miscellaneous Electric Loads.B/O 81010-13
1977 1987 1997 2006
IHS _CERA_FNAF_Washington, DC_ Dec-8-09
North American Power Generation by Fuel Type
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© 2010, IHS CERA Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Source: IHS CERA.
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If you have any questions about this presentation orIHS CERA in general, please feel free to contact:g , p
Bob Ineson 800 TRY CERA
+1 281 364 9364+1 281 364 [email protected]
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g y
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