NSF Program Update

Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory CommitteeCommittee

12 October 200612 October 2006

Update Topics

Division OverviewDivision Overview FY2006 Budget OverviewFY2006 Budget Overview FY2007 RequestFY2007 Request Grants program Grants program Major facility projectsMajor facility projects Senior ReviewSenior Review

Division Overview

Organizational re-alignmentOrganizational re-alignment Facilities and MREFC projects (C. Foltz)Facilities and MREFC projects (C. Foltz)

Mid-scale projects and infrastructure (V. Pankonin)Mid-scale projects and infrastructure (V. Pankonin)

Individual Investigator programs (N. Sharp)Individual Investigator programs (N. Sharp)

• FY2006 Appropriation - NSF request ($198.64m) + ~1% increase for R&RA

• Rescission of 1.28% - resulting AST budget ~$199.65M (relative to $195.1M in FY2005)

• Increases for Physics of the Universe and facilities stewardship (MPS priorities)

• ‘recommended’ $51.4M budget for NRAO

- $4M over request

- had to be found within existing program budgets

Astronomy Division Budget - FY2006

Facilities - $122 M

• NOAO, NSO, NAIC - Level with FY2005 budget (less rescission)

• NRAO: +$4M directed

• Gemini: +$3M - next generation instrumentation (Aspen)

• UROs: -$2M

Astronomy Research & Instrumentation - $77.6 M

• Increase directed primarily toward Physics of the Universe

• ATI program new awards curtailed as source of funds for NRAO earmark

• Included $4M for LSST and $2M for GSMT TDP

• Included ‘cyberinfrastructure’ funds for NVO start (delayed)

Astronomy Division Budget - FY2006

Astronomy Division Budget - FY2006

Astronomy Research & Instrumentation - $77.6 M

Individual Investigator programs within AST AAG - ~ 43%Instrumentation (ATI, TSIP, TDP) - ~20% Special programs and MPS priorities (e.g. , AAPF,

REU, CAREER, POU) - ~ 18%

NSF-wide programs and priorities (e.g. ADVANCE, IGERT, CI) - ~ 15%

Science & Technology Centers (STC) - ~5% Center for Adaptive Optics (CfAO)

FY2007 Request for AST $215.11M (FY2006 + 7.7% or $15.5M)

• Facilities base operations budgets held level pending outcome of senior review

• Increases for:

- GSMT ($5M, up $3M)

- TSIP ($4M, up $2M)

- AODP ($1.5M, restored)

- Physics of the Universe activities enhanced

- Elementary Particle Physics - dark energy, dark matter studies (with Physics Division)

- Research grants programs up overall

- Gemini future instrumentation

FY2007 Budget Request

Facilities

NOAO NSO

Gemini1

NRAO

NAIC

UROs

AST Facilities Budget

$24.55 M

$10.0M

$18.18 M

$50.74 M

$10.46 M

$8.0 M

FY2006 $122 M

FY2007 req $125M

$24.55 M

$10.0 M

$20.0 M

$50.74M

$10.46 M

$9.0 M

1Includes $1M Chilean buy-back

American Competitiveness Initiative

• NSF, NIST and DOE Office of Science selected to participate

• Overall goal to double combined budgets in 10 years

• Not clear how individual agencies or programs will be affected

• Supports ‘innovation-enabling research’ (nanotechnology, advanced networking and IT, materials science …. and physical science)

• Strengthens K-12 math and science education (targeted programs)

FY2007 Budget Request

MPS by DivisionMPS by Division

FY 2004 Actuals

FY 2005 Actuals

Change from

04 to 05

FY 2006 Current

Plan

Change from

05 to 06FY 2007 Request

Change from

06 to 07AST 196.63 195.11 -0.8% 199.65 2.3% 215.11 7.7%CHE 185.12 179.26 -3.2% 180.78 0.8% 191.10 5.7%DMR 250.65 240.09 -4.2% 242.91 1.2% 257.45 6.0%DMS 200.35 200.24 -0.1% 199.30 -0.5% 205.74 3.2%PHY 227.77 224.86 -1.3% 233.13 3.7% 248.50 6.6%OMA 31.07 29.80 -4.1% 29.68 -0.4% 32.40 9.2%Total, MPS 1,091.59 1,069.36 -2.0% 1085.45 1.5% 1150.30 6.0%

R&RA 4293.34 4234.82 -1.4% 4,331.48 2.3% 4,665.95 7.7%

NSF 5652.01 5480.78 -3.0% 5,581.17 1.8% 6,020.21 7.9%

(Dollars in Millions)

MPS Ten-Year Funding MPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryHistory

MPS Subactivity Funding(Dollars in Millions)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

AST CHE DMR DMS PHY OMA

MPS Ten-Year Funding MPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryHistory

MPS Subactivity Funding

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

AST CHE DMR DMS PHY OMA

AST Grants ProgramsTrends in AAG program

Has grown significantly in past 6 years• Number of proposals• Budget• Success rate (until recently)• Typical award size

But proposal pressure is increasing rapidly• Research grants proposals up 20% in FY2006

(following 15% increase in FY2005)• Budget is not increasing to keep pace

substantial decreases in success rate to ~24% in FY2006, and this possible only because used POU-tagged money and CI-tagged

money to fund proposals to AAG.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Fiscal year

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$(M

)

Median Annual Award AAG budget

AAG Program Evolution FY1996-2006

AAG Program Evolution FY1995-2006

AAG

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fiscal Year

Nu

mb

er

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Fu

nd

ing

ra

te

Proposals Funding rate

Major Facility Projects

ALMA Project All three developed regions of the world are participating:All three developed regions of the world are participating:

Americas: North America (US, Canada) + Chile [Host Country]Americas: North America (US, Canada) + Chile [Host Country] Europe: through European Southern Observatory (ESO)Europe: through European Southern Observatory (ESO) Asia: (Japan + Taiwan) [Managed outside the core bilateral project]Asia: (Japan + Taiwan) [Managed outside the core bilateral project]

Key featuresKey features Radio telescope array – core of 50 12-meter telescopesRadio telescope array – core of 50 12-meter telescopes Sensitive, precision imaging between 30 and 950 GHzSensitive, precision imaging between 30 and 950 GHz Located in Chile; high (5000 meters), dry siteLocated in Chile; high (5000 meters), dry site

Key science capabilitiesKey science capabilities Image proto-planetary disksImage proto-planetary disks Image galaxies to z = 10, Milky Way to z = 3Image galaxies to z = 10, Milky Way to z = 3

10-100 times more sensitive and 10-100 times 10-100 times more sensitive and 10-100 times

better angular resolution compared to better angular resolution compared to

current mm/submm telescopescurrent mm/submm telescopes

Rebaselined cost and schedule Timing:Timing:

Rebaselining planned since full project was initiated (2/03)Rebaselining planned since full project was initiated (2/03) Timing dependent on development of partnership and JAOTiming dependent on development of partnership and JAO Began late 2004, new baseline(s) delivered to ALMA Board Began late 2004, new baseline(s) delivered to ALMA Board

September 2005September 2005

Why:Why: Partnerships not fully formed when construction was initiated Partnerships not fully formed when construction was initiated

Complexity – and cost – of partnership of equals not clearly understoodComplexity – and cost – of partnership of equals not clearly understood Management system for common elements of project not fully developedManagement system for common elements of project not fully developed

Early concerns:Early concerns: Period of rapid increase in commodity prices, and costs in ChilePeriod of rapid increase in commodity prices, and costs in Chile Antennas much more expensive than initially estimated by project Antennas much more expensive than initially estimated by project andand

vendorsvendors Project Management Control System requiredProject Management Control System required

Overview of Rebaselined U.S. Cost and Schedule: 50-element ALMA

U.S. CostU.S. Cost TotalTotal rebaselined cost: $499M rebaselined cost: $499M +45% increase +45% increase

Original: $344MOriginal: $344M Rebaselined cost: $478MRebaselined cost: $478M Additional contingency: $18M + $3MAdditional contingency: $18M + $3M

Cost ContainmentCost Containment Scope reduction: 64 to 50 antennasScope reduction: 64 to 50 antennas New partner likely New partner likely Manage contingencyManage contingency

ScheduleSchedule Original Completion: 2011Original Completion: 2011 Revised Completion: U.S. and ESO both spent out in FY 2012Revised Completion: U.S. and ESO both spent out in FY 2012

Rebaselined Costs

Main Initial Results:Main Initial Results:

Antenna number must be reduced in order to control costsAntenna number must be reduced in order to control costs U.S. cost for a 50-element array grew by about 40% relative to U.S. cost for a 50-element array grew by about 40% relative to

original estimate original estimate Schedule to complete is not greatly delayed Schedule to complete is not greatly delayed

(due to reduced antenna number) (due to reduced antenna number) Additional cost savings proposed to ALMA Board Additional cost savings proposed to ALMA Board

(subsequently approved)(subsequently approved) Early science will slipEarly science will slip

FY2007 Request MREFC Runout

FY 2005 Actual

FY 20061

Current Plan

FY 2007 Request

FY 2008 Estimate

FY 2009 Estimate

FY 2010 Estimate

FY 2011 Estimate

FY 2012 Estimate

Ongoing ProjectsALMA 49.30 45.14 47.89 47.07 37.37 20.98EarthScope 44.80 46.40 27.40IceCube 48.10 46.25 28.65 22.38 11.33 0.95NEON 12.00 12.00 20.00 30.00 26.00SODV 6.08 53.09 42.88SPSM 16.86 9.13DOJ Judgment 3.00New StartsARRV 56.00 42.00OOI 13.50 48.00 77.00 78.00 53.00 40.00AdvLIGO - 28.48 42.81 46.31 36.25 22.90

Totals $165.14 $190.88 $240.45 $199.93 $188.51 $176.24 $115.25 $62.90

MREFC Account Funding(Dollars in Millions)

Totals may not add due to rounding.Estimates for FY 2008 and beyond do not reflect policy decisions and are presented for planning purposes only.1The FY 2006 Current Plan excludes $45.68 million carried forward from previous years. This includes an unobligatedbalance of $14.88 million from FY 2005 distributed pro rata among ALMA, EarthScope, IceCube and SODV; and anadditional carryover of $2.17 million for EarthScope, $6.59 million for IceCube, $8.80 million for SODV, and $13.17million for SPSM.

FY 2007 Request MREFC Runout – ALMA Impact?

FY 2005 Actual

FY 20061

Current Plan

FY 2007 Request

FY 2008 Estimate

FY 2009 Estimate

FY 2010 Estimate

FY 2011 Estimate

FY 2012 Estimate

Ongoing ProjectsALMA 49.30 45.14 47.89 47.07 37.37 20.98ALMA Increase 17.38 55.00 36.38 26.78 21.44 3.00EarthScope 44.80 46.40 27.40IceCube 48.10 46.25 28.65 22.38 11.33 0.95NEON 12.00 12.00 20.00 30.00 26.00SODV 6.08 53.09 42.88SPSM 16.86 9.13DOJ Judgment 3.00New StartsARRV 56.00 42.00OOI 13.50 48.00 77.00 78.00 53.00 40.00AdvLIGO - 28.48 42.81 46.31 36.25 22.90

Totals $165.14 $190.88 $257.83 $254.93 $224.89 $203.02 $136.69 $65.90

MREFC Account Funding(Dollars in Millions)

Totals may not add due to rounding.Estimates for FY 2008 and beyond do not reflect policy decisions and are presented for planning purposes only.1The FY 2006 Current Plan excludes $45.68 million carried forward from previous years. This includes an unobligatedbalance of $14.88 million from FY 2005 distributed pro rata among ALMA, EarthScope, IceCube and SODV; and anadditional carryover of $2.17 million for EarthScope, $6.59 million for IceCube, $8.80 million for SODV, and $13.17million for SPSM.

Advanced Technology Solar Telescope

NSF Director moved to ‘readiness’ phase in NSF Director moved to ‘readiness’ phase in

March 2006March 2006 Environmental Impact study underwayEnvironmental Impact study underway Partnerships with Air Force and international Partnerships with Air Force and international

communities under discussioncommunities under discussion AST continues to provide funding (~$2M) within AST continues to provide funding (~$2M) within

NSONSO PDR scheduled for late October 2006, prerequisite PDR scheduled for late October 2006, prerequisite

for inclusion in future budget submissionfor inclusion in future budget submission Earliest likely entry to MREFC account is FY2009Earliest likely entry to MREFC account is FY2009

VERITAS Draft Environmental Assessment completed in Draft Environmental Assessment completed in

Nov 2005Nov 2005 Environmental monitoring continuesEnvironmental monitoring continues Consultation with Tohono O’odham ongoing, Consultation with Tohono O’odham ongoing,

response to mitigation proposal requested response to mitigation proposal requested Progress continues at Whipple Observatory base Progress continues at Whipple Observatory base

campcamp Earliest possible construction resumption on Kitt Earliest possible construction resumption on Kitt

Peak is ~ December 2006Peak is ~ December 2006

Virtual Observatory

Re-started negotiation over MOU between NSF and Re-started negotiation over MOU between NSF and NASA, nearing resolution of remaining issues ?NASA, nearing resolution of remaining issues ?

Program solicitation ready for clearance, waiting for MOU Program solicitation ready for clearance, waiting for MOU signature signature

Anticipate competition and selection of managing Anticipate competition and selection of managing organization in summer FY2007 organization in summer FY2007

Funds have been made available to ensure smooth Funds have been made available to ensure smooth transition from NVO development project to VO transition from NVO development project to VO implementationimplementation

NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences

Senior ReviewUpdate

AST Budget FY1995-2006

Total of Decadal Survey recommendations

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“Senior Review”

Committee established October 2005 as subcommittee of Committee established October 2005 as subcommittee of MPS Advisory Committee - Roger Blandford, ChairMPS Advisory Committee - Roger Blandford, Chair

Report requested March 2006 but committee and Report requested March 2006 but committee and community assured ample time for quality report community assured ample time for quality report

Meetings/telecons held October 2005 - August 2006 Meetings/telecons held October 2005 - August 2006 Community input to NSF and committeeCommunity input to NSF and committee

NSF web site and email NSF web site and email http://www.http://www.nsfnsf..gov/mps/ast/ast_senior_reviewgov/mps/ast/ast_senior_review.jsp.jsp

Held regional town meetingsHeld regional town meetings Boston, Minneapolis, Clemson, DC, Boulder, Boston, Minneapolis, Clemson, DC, Boulder,

Berkeley, AAS meetingBerkeley, AAS meeting

“Senior Review”

AST has briefed NSF management, Congressional Staff, AST has briefed NSF management, Congressional Staff, OMB, OSTP on the processOMB, OSTP on the process

Draft recently available Draft recently available AST is verifying facts, responding to requests for AST is verifying facts, responding to requests for

clarificationclarification

AST exploring implications of all issues identified. e.g. AST exploring implications of all issues identified. e.g. facility closure, divestiturefacility closure, divestiture

“Senior Review” Report will be submitted to MPS AC for acceptance at its 1-3 Report will be submitted to MPS AC for acceptance at its 1-3

November 2006 meetingNovember 2006 meeting When accepted, report will be announced through the AAS and When accepted, report will be announced through the AAS and

posted on AST web site for wide distributionposted on AST web site for wide distribution Plans for AST and Blandford to brief OSTP, OMB, Congressional Plans for AST and Blandford to brief OSTP, OMB, Congressional

staff, other agencies (NASA, DOE), community and advisory staff, other agencies (NASA, DOE), community and advisory groups groups

AST will formulate an implementation plan AST will formulate an implementation plan Some recommendations will require additional explorationSome recommendations will require additional exploration Bring plan to community (special session at Seattle AAS, Bring plan to community (special session at Seattle AAS,

planning regional town meetings)planning regional town meetings)

CAA will be consulted as AST acts on recommendationsCAA will be consulted as AST acts on recommendations

Results will inform future budget developmentResults will inform future budget development

Stewardship and Science

NSF is steward of ground-based astronomyNSF is steward of ground-based astronomy Committee asked to help us in that stewardshipCommittee asked to help us in that stewardship Fabric of science must be far deeper and richer than Fabric of science must be far deeper and richer than

Decade priority listDecade priority list Much of the structure is taken for grantedMuch of the structure is taken for granted Examine that fabric – be certain pulling a thread doesn’t Examine that fabric – be certain pulling a thread doesn’t

unravel it allunravel it all Scientific capability for the futureScientific capability for the future Broad community support for the programBroad community support for the program

The Question

““The question for all of us is to judge The question for all of us is to judge whether these changes are viable and lead whether these changes are viable and lead to a vital and sustainable future, or whether to a vital and sustainable future, or whether the pace and scope of change necessary to the pace and scope of change necessary to realize the cumulative aspirations of the realize the cumulative aspirations of the community under severely constrained community under severely constrained budgets are too drasticbudgets are too drastic.”.”

Operating budgets and grant increments to realize the Decadal Survey recommendations

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