NSF Hurricane Research

National Science Foundation

Pamela StephensGeosciences Directorate

NSF Directorate Roles in Hurricane Research

Geosciences (GEO) – Study the hurricane as a phenomenon from formation to dissipation. Conduct research on the prediction of hurricane behavior/evolution and on the impacts of hurricanes on the built and natural environments.

Current award areas include:

• seasonal prediction

• relation to climate change

• cyclogenesis

• intensity changes

• sediment transport

• air-sea fluxes

Internal Vortex Dynamics In collaboration with NOAA’s IFEX, NSF sponsored the

RAINEX field campaign in 2005. Early results indicate that the “moat” region between the original and replacement eyewalls becomes dynamically similar to the eye, and that targeting observations in this area may lead to improvements in forecasting hurricane intensity.

NCAR Hurricane Modeling Priorities

No delay of intensification with EnKF IC

Advanced computation of initial conditions (IC) Ensemble Kalman Filter 4D-VAR

Grid-spacing of 1 km in real time

Ocean and wave coupling Simulation of fine-scale

dynamics at landfallImbalance with GFDL IC lasts 2 days

Dean 2007

GFDL IC

Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP and New Observation Capability

The COSMIC satellites were launched on April 14th, 2006 and have provided nearly 1 million atmospheric occultation measurements. Early results show that increasing thermodynamic data in data-sparse regions may have an effect on model performance in relation to forecasting tropical cyclogenesis and storm tracks.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

~58,000 ft50 - 100 mb

Zero-pressureor

Super PressureBalloon

Gondola(20 to 50 sonde capacity)

SondesCommanded for Release

NORTHAMERICA

EUROPE

IRIDIUMLEO Satellite

System ConceptBalloon Based Dropsondes

Cost-effective dropsonde observations of wind, temperature, and humidity to fill critical gaps in coverage over oceanic and remote artic and continental regions over days to weeks.

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008

August-September 2008

Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution

Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:

– tropical cyclone formation– intensification – Motion/track– decay and/or ET

North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in

– tropical and midlatitude predictability – tropical cyclones,

» ET – intense extratropical cyclogenesis

Navy interest in Tropical cyclone formation, intensification, and structure change (TCS-08)

Example supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

THORPEX-PARC

Tropical cyclone core region

Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface region

Midlatitude impact region

THORPEX-PARC

Downstream impacts may be forced by:• Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind associated with remaining deep convection in the tropical cyclone core region• Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to latent-heat release in an area of strong warm frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude interface region• Import of energy into the midlatitudes via interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude impact region.

Climate Research Priorities

There has been much discussion recently about the trend in hurricane intensity in a warming climate. With questions about the reliability of past hurricane records, NSF-sponsored researchers along with NCDC created a homogeneous global record of hurricane intensity through use of existing satellite data.

NSF Directorate Roles in Hurricane Research

Social, Behavioral & Economic Studies (SBE) – Research focuses on the four stages of disaster management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.

Engineering (ENG) – Provide research into hazard response and mitigation, and how hurricanes affect infrastructure - including buildings, levees and electrical and communication systems.

New Solicitation from SBE, ENG, and NOAA

Communicating Hurricane Information

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