Nsdl Quarterlystatement 01-01-2012 to 31-03-2012

7/27/2019 Nsdl Quarterlystatement 01-01-2012 to 31-03-2012

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June 3, 2013

ICICI Securities Ltd|Retail Equity Research

Result Update

WHATS CHANGEDPRICE TARGET................................ .................................... ....... Changed from | 45 to | 28

EPS (FY14E)........................................................................................................Unchanged

EPS (FY15E)..........................................................................................Introduced at | 11.5

RATING...............................................................................................................Unchanged

When interest burden outweighs allJyoti Structures (JSL) put up an improved business performancescorecard in Q4FY13, buoyed by superior execution and well maintainedmargins, leading to operational profit of | 99.1 crore and EBITDA marginsof 10.6%. However, of this | 99.1 crore, only 22.4% were converted toPAT, as the heavy burden of finance cost ate away 61.7%. The debt hasmounted from | 613 crore at FY12 to | 954 crore at FY13 end. For thequarter, the topline grew a stellar 27% to | 935 crore yet the PAT came inat | 22.7 crore, primarily pulled down by high interest burden.Order backlog, execution and bidding pipeline remain healthyThe order backlog stood at | 4800 crore, with order inflows touching| 1100 crore for the quarter and | 3246 crore for the full year. Of the totalorder book, 27% comes from PGCIL orders, 48% by SEB orders while thebalance came from international orders. For FY14E, the managementexpects the topline to grow 10-15%, with EBITDA margins in and around10%, given rising share of international orders. Over the next twoquarters, the company has a bidding pipeline of | 6,000-7000 crore, with

half the opportunity rising in the domestic market (primarily from SEBsfrom Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, PGCIL) and the rest coming frominternational geographies like Ghana, Ethiopia, Nepal and Tanzania.

but working capital issues overshadows all othersJSL continues to face working capital issue, with the huge interest burdensuppressing profitability. On the subsidiary performance front, Gulf Jyotihad a topline of 287 million dirham and a bottomline of 12 million dirham.Jyoti Africa was able to break even, at a topline of 170 million ZAR.However, Jyoti America posted a loss of $8 million, on revenues of $14million, being the companys first year of operation. The managementbelieves this loss will be in line with expectation and FY14E will be thebreak even year.

Deteriorating balance sheet quality to be key concernWe believe despite a healthy order backlog, reasonable margin profileand robust execution, unrelenting high levels of working capital debtwould mar profit. Though valuations at these levels look inexpensive, a rerating would only be due on significant improvement of the workingcapital cycle. We value the stock at 3.5x FY15E EV/EBITDA at | 28/share.

Exhibit 1:Financial Performance(| Crore) Q4FY13 Q4FY13E Q4FY12 Q3FY13 QoQ (Chg %) YoY (Chg %)

Total Operating Income 938.5 807.2 735.9 619.7 51.4 27.5

EBITDA 99.1 83.1 82.5 62.6 58.3 20.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 10.6 10.3 11.2 10.1 46 bps -66 bps

Interest 61.4 40.7 40.5 38.3 60.4 51.7

Reported PAT 22.2 25.9 31.7 13.4 65.6 -29.8 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Jyoti Structures (JYOSTR)

| 27

ting matrix

ing : Hold

get : | 28

get Period : 12 months

ential Upside : 3%

y Financials

Crore FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

et Sales 2,592 2,805.9 3,121.3 3,539.9

BITDA 280.0 282.9 313.7 335.4

et Profit 85.5 65.7 80.9 94.9

PS (|) 10.4 8.0 9.8 11.5

luation summary

FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

/E 2.6 3.4 2.7 2.3

arget P/E 4.7 6.2 5.0 4.3

V / EBITDA 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.5

/BV 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

oNW 12.8 9.1 10.2 10.8

oCE 20.1 16.8 17.3 16.6

ock data

arket Capitalization | 222 Crore

tal Debt (FY13E) | 814.4 Crore

sh and Investments (FY13E) | 79.5 Crore

| 956.8 Crore

week H/L 51 / 27

uity capital | 16.4 Crore

ce value | 2

Holding (%) 20.7

Holding (%) 8.6

ce movement

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

May-13Mar-13Dec-12Sep-12Jun-12

(StockMovement,|)

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

(IndexMovement)

Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

alysts name

hirag J Shah

[email protected]

onabh Bubna

[email protected]


2/10

ICICI Securities Ltd|Retail Equity Research Page 2

Exhibit 2:Assumption(in %) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Order Inflow Growth -9.6 31.7 13.4 5.4

Order Book Growth -2.6 10.1 12.1 6.7

Revenue Growth 8.9 8.2 11.2 13.4

EBITDA Margin 10.8 10.1 10.0 9.5

PAT Growth -20.0 -23.2 23.2 17.3 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Trend of order backlog for standalone business

3869 40304150 4106 4250 4100

4478 4461 4375 4299 43604636

48454605

4800

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

(|c

rore)

.

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 4: Order inflows: oscillating between good and poor performance

322

570

848

407

681 665

534

688

418

1100

621550

510

797

930

801

433

1100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Q3

FY09

Q4

FY09

Q1

FY10

Q2

FY10

Q3

FY10

Q4

FY10

Q1

FY11

Q2

FY11

Q3

FY11

Q4

FY11

Q1

FY12

Q2

FY12

Q3

FY12

Q4

FY12

Q1

FY13

Q2

FY13

Q3

FY13

Q4

FY13

(|crore

)

.


The order book is at | 4800 crore, implying 10.0% YoY

growth, tall enough to provide for revenue visibility for 1.7

years (on a TTM basis)

JSL secured orders worth | 1100 crore in Q4FY13,

implying an order replacement ratio of 1.2x. Most new

orders came in from international markets, with a poor run

at the most lucrative customer, PGCIL


3/10


Exhibit 5: Break-up of order backlog in terms of business vertical

3230

3280

3090

2766

2625

2665

2616

2550

2907

2627

3120

595

205

848

963

817

872

834

1211

645

576

425

615

49

3

848

788

817

872

1252

727

1337 11

04

896

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

(|crore)

.

Transmission Substation Rural Electrification


Exhibit 6: Break-up of order backlog in terms of client exposure

27

48

25

PGCIL SEB's Others


Exhibit 7: Book to bill ratio provides high cushion to revenue visibility

2.1 2.12.2

2.1 2.1 2.12.0 2.0

1.9 1.9 1.81.7

1.7 1.71.8

1.91.8

1.7

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.5

Q3FY09

Q4FY09

Q1FY10

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

(x)

.


Key conference call highlights: The management has highlighted bidding opportunities to the

tune of ~| 6,000-7000 crore. Half the opportunities arise fromSEBs from Maharashtra, West Bengal and PGCIL among otherswhile the remaining arises from international geographies, likeGhana, Nepal and Tanzania among others

Total debt as of FY13 stood at | 954 crore, up from | 783 crore atH1FY13 end with the cost of debt remaining at ~12%

Debtor days stood at 230 days, same as in the last quarter The management expects to keep double digit margins for FY14E The management is focusing on cutting down the working capital

debt significantly in the current fiscal (FY14E)

We have built in topline growth of 11.2% for FY14E and 13.4% forFY15E, with operating margins in the range of 10% for FY14E and9.5% for FY15E. With the increasing tilt of the order book towardsthe international side, we believe a margin contract, going ahead,will be on the cards

The transmission order backlog comprises 65% of the overall

order backlog followed by the substation and rural

electrification segments at 12% and 23%, respectively. The

share of PGCILs order has fallen sequentially from 36% in

Q1FY13 to 29% in Q2FY13 and 27% in Q4FY13. Share of

SEBs in the backlog stands at half of the total pie


4/10


Exhibit 8: Trend in revenue growth

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Q3FY09

Q4FY09

Q1FY10

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

(|crore)

.

-10

-5

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

(%)

.

Revenue Growth (%)


Exhibit 9: EBITDA margins trend

11.3

10.4

11.011.2 11.0

12.8

11.311.6

11.411.6

11.010.8

10.1

11.2

9.8 9.710.1

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Q3FY09

Q4FY09

Q1FY10

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

(%)

.

Exhibit 10: PAT build-up for Q4FY13 (as percentage of net sales)

71.5

6.9

9.0

2.4

10.6

100.0

1.20.76.50.3

2.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

TotalOperating

Income

Raw

Material

Expenses

Sub

Contracting

Charges

Other

Operating

Expenses

Employee

Expenses

Operating

Profit(EBITDA)

OtherIncome

Interest

Depreciation

TotalTax

PAT

(%)


Net sales at | 935.5 crore, up 27.7% YoY, were above our

expectations. For FY13 overall sales, | 2805.9 crore or78% came from the domestic segment while exports

made up 22%. Transmission revenues made up 79%,

substation 10% while rural electrification made up 11% of

the total revenues, respectively

EBITDA margins at 10.6% were above our estimates of

10.3%. Going ahead, we expect JSL to report margins in

the range of 9.5-10.0% over FY14E-15E


5/10


Valuations & Outlook

We believe despite a healthy order backlog, reasonable margin profileand robust execution, unrelenting high levels of working capital debtwould mar profit. Though valuations at these levels look inexpensive, a rerating would only be due on significant restructuring of the workingcapital cycle. We have valued the stock at 3.5 FY14E EV/EBITDA tocapture the balance sheet risk and arrive at a fair value of | 28/share.

Exhibit 11: Key problem area for JSL as interest cost eating heavily into EBITDA:

Interest/EBITDA matrix

50.4

59.655.8

51.8

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

(%

)


Exhibit 12: Twelve month forward P/E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

(X)

12 Month Forward P/E



6/10


Exhibit 13: Relative performance of JSL vis--vis broader markets and peers, normalised to 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

JYS IN Peer Index SENSEX


The Peer index is an equal weighted index of stock

performance of Kalpataru Power and KEC International,

normalised to 100


7/10


Financial summary

Profit and loss statement(| Crore)

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15ETotal operating Income 2,592.4 2,805.9 3,121.3 3,539.9

Growth (%) 8.9 8.2 11.2 13.4

Raw Material Expenses 1,367.1 1,730.4 1,697.0 1,944.0

Employee Expenses 79.5 79.5 84.9 129.1

Sub Contracting Charges 592.3 446.0 646.8 732.7

Other Operating Expenses 273.6 261.6 351.0 398.7

Other expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Operating Expenditure 2,321.4 2,525.7 2,790.9 3,217.9

EBITDA 280.0 282.9 313.7 335.4

Growth (%) -0.4 1.1 10.9 6.9

Depreciation 21.4 24.4 27.3 29.6

Interest 141.0 168.7 175.0 173.6

Other Income 10.9 8.9 9.5 9.5

PBT 128.5 98.7 120.8 141.7

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Tax 43.0 33.0 39.9 46.8

PAT 85.5 65.7 80.9 94.9

Growth (%) -20.0 -23.2 23.2 17.3

EPS (|) 10.4 8.0 9.8 11.5 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Cash flow statement(| Crore)

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15EProfit after Tax 85.5 65.7 80.9 94.9

Add: Depreciation 21.4 24.4 27.3 29.6

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets -577.6 -299.7 -242.3 -420.6

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 390.3 85.2 110.2 195.7

Others 3.3 3.0 5.0 5.0

CF from operating activities -80.4 -124.4 -23.8 -100.4

(Inc)/dec in Investments -16.5 -5.0 0.0 0.0

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -47.9 -39.5 -40.0 -25.0

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CF from investing activities -53.1 -30.3 -54.2 -10.8

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inc/(dec) in loan funds 164.7 200.0 50.0 100.0

Dividend paid & dividend tax -10.6 -11.5 -11.5 -11.5

Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0

CF from financing activities 149.3 188.5 38.5 88.5

Net Cash flow 15.8 33.8 -39.5 -22.7

Opening Cash 29.9 45.7 79.5 40.0

Closing Cash 45.7 79.5 40.0 17.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet(| Crore)

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

LiabilitiesEquity Capital 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4

Reserve and Surplus 654.0 708.1 777.5 860.9

Total Shareholders funds 670.4 724.6 794.0 877.4

Total Debt 614.4 814.4 864.4 964.4

Deferred Tax Liability 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8

Minority Interest / Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Liabilities 1,404.6 1,658.7 1,778.1 1,961.5

Assets

Gross Block 299.5 338.9 378.9 403.9

Less: Acc Depreciation 101.6 124.3 149.9 177.8

Net Block 197.9 214.7 229.1 226.1

Capital WIP 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Total Fixed Assets 198.5 215.3 229.7 226.8

Investments 86.6 91.6 91.6 91.6

Inventory 265.7 271.6 361.2 414.7

Debtors 1,558.1 1,803.9 2,009.6 2,327.6

Loans and Advances 228.0 276.3 223.1 272.5

Other Current Assets 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2

Cash 45.7 79.5 40.0 17.2

Total Current Assets 2,097.7 2,431.2 2,634.0 3,031.9

Creditors 563.0 606.4 701.2 775.9

Provisions 59.7 66.7 77.1 77.6

Total Current Liabilities 1,053.6 1,138.8 1,249.1 1,444.7

Net Current Assets 1,044.2 1,292.4 1,384.9 1,587.2

Others Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Application of Funds 1,404.6 1,658.8 1,778.2 1,961.6 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Per share data (|)

EPS 10.4 8.0 9.8 11.5Cash EPS 13.0 11.0 13.2 15.2

BV 81.5 88.1 96.6 106.7

DPS 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Cash Per Share 5.6 9.7 4.9 2.1

Operating Ratios (%)

EBITDA Margin 10.8 10.1 10.0 9.5

PBT / Total Operating income 5.0 3.5 3.9 4.0

PAT Margin 3.3 2.3 2.6 2.7

Inventory days 34.3 35.0 37.0 40.0

Debtor days 219.4 235.0 235.0 240.0

Creditor days 79.3 79.0 82.0 80.0

Return Ratios (%)

RoE 12.8 9.1 10.2 10.8

RoCE 20.1 16.8 17.3 16.6

RoIC 13.3 11.2 11.5 10.8

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E 2.6 3.4 2.7 2.3

EV / EBITDA 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.5

EV / Net Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Market Cap / Sales 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Price to Book Value 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Solvency Ratios

Debt/EBITDA 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.9

Debt / Equity 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1

Current Ratio 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1

Quick Ratio 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1



8/10


Company Description

Incorporated in 1974, Jyoti Structures (JSL) is an EPC player operating inthe power transmission sector. The company has capabilities toundertake transmission line, substation and distribution projects. Sinceinception, JSL has manufactured over 15,000 circuit km of high voltagetransmission lines and over 550,000 MT of transmission line towers. Ason Q3FY13, the companys order book stood at | 4,600 crore. OutsideIndia, JSL has a subsidiary, Jyoti Structures Africa (Pty) Ltd and a JV, GulfJyoti International LLC, which have been formed to tap power sectoropportunities in Africa and the Gulf region, respectively. The company isheadquartered in Mumbai. JSL is lately facing issues of stretched workingcapital, leading high levels of working capital debt and, consequently,higher interest burden.

Exhibit 14: Recommendation History

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

Jyoti Structures Target Price

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 15: Recent Releases

Date Event CMP Target Price Rating

31-Mar-11 Initiating Coverage 82 89 BUY

8-Apr-11 Q4FY11 Preview 90 89 BUY

31-May-11 Q4FY11 Result Update 86 98 BUY

5-Jul-11 Q1FY12 Preview 85 98 BUY

28-Jul-11 Q1FY12 Result Update 87 98 BUY

5-Oct-11 Q2FY12 Preview 63 98 BUY

28-Oct-11 Q2FY12 Result Update 61 85 BUY

6-Jan-12 Q3FY12 Preview 43 85 BUY

31-Jan-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 46 60 BUY

4-Apr-12 Q4FY12 Preview 43 60 BUY

28-May-12 Q4FY12 Result Update 40 55 BUY

5-Jul-12 Q1FY13 Preview 43 55 BUY

2-Aug-12 Q1FY13 Result Update 38 48 BUY

1-Sep-12 Q2FY13 Result Update 45 48 BUY

8-Jan-13 Q3FY13 Preview 46 48 BUY

4-Feb-13 Q3FY13 Result Update 41 45 Hold Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research


9/10


ICICIdirect.com Research coverage universe (Capital Goods)CMP M Cap

(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E

Thermax (THERMA) 580 536 Hold 6902.0 29.8 28.6 31.9 19.5 20.3 18.2 3.7 3.3 3.0 23.9 20.9 20.7 19.1 16.3 16.2

BGR Energy (BGRENE) 174 211 Hold 1252.8 21.7 20.4 23.5 8.0 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 11.1 9.9 11.4 12.3 11.1 11.8

Sterlite Technologies (STEOPT) 22 28 Hold 838.5 1.1 1.8 2.0 19.3 12.2 10.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 7.0 7.9 8.3 3.7 5.5 6.1

KEC International (KECIN) 39 48 Hold 971.5 2.6 4.2 6.0 15.0 9.2 6.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 11.2 12.0 13.1 5.6 8.5 11.1

Jyoti Structures (JYOSTR) 27 28 Hold 216.0 8.0 9.8 11.5 3.4 2.7 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 16.8 17.3 16.6 9.1 10.2 10.8

Kalpataru Power (KALPOW) 73 94 Buy 2589.7 8.9 10.8 12.3 8.2 6.8 5.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 11.2 11.4 11.8 7.4 8.3 8.8

Larsen & Toubro (LARTOU) 1392 1604 Hold 84772.8 79.5 83.2 92.7 19.6 18.8 16.8 3.3 3.0 2.6 14.9 14.8 15.4 17.0 15.8 15.6

BHEL 200 193 Hold 48839.9 28.8 25.2 21.1 6.9 7.9 9.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 35.7 26.5 20.2 27.7 20.7 15.5

Sector / Company

RoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoA (%)



10/10

ICICI S i i L d

CICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them

as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional

arget price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;

Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;

Hold: Up to +/-10%;

Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head Research [email protected] Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,Road No. 7, MIDC,Andheri (East)

Mumbai 400 093

[email protected]

We /I, Chirag J Shah PGDBM Sonabh Bubna MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect

ur personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s)

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esearch report.

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Documents

Nsdl Quarterlystatement 01-01-2012 to 31-03-2012