9/20/2012

1

NSAA Kottke End

of Season Analysis

2011/12 Season

SANY Expo

September 18, 2012

Greek Peak Resort

0

Kottke End of Season Analysis

• Visits

• Snow

• Ticket Types, Season Passes

• Lessons, Snowboarding, Day/Overnight Mix

• Capital Expenditures

• Customer Experience

• Takeaways

Page 1

9/20/2012

2

Regional Boundaries

Pacific

Northwest(incl. Alaska)

Pacific

Southwest

Rocky

Mountain Midwest

Southeast

Northeast

• Information gathered from 230 US ski areas

Page 2

2011/12 Season Overview

• Challenging season for both visits and

snowfall/ weather

• Ticket yields were up

• Lesson participation rate was up

• Overnight and International share of visits up

• Projected capital expenditures are down

• Enthusiasm for snowboarding appears to be

waning

Page 3Page 3

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Total Visits

• Total visits down to 51.0 million, down 15.8%

from 60.5 million in 2010/11

• Visits down in all six geographic regions

• Visits down in nearly every state

• Visits down in each period of the season

Page 4Page 4

Total Visits Since 1978/79

• 51.0 million visits in 2011/12, lowest since

1991/92

Page 5

50.2

48.2

39.7

50.7

46.9 50.6

51.4

51.9 53.7

53.9

53.3

50.0

46.7 50.8 54.0

54.6

52.7 54.0

52.5 54.1

52.1

52.2

57.3

54.4 57.6

57.1

56.9 58.9

55.1

60.5

57.4 59.8

60.5

51.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1978

/79

1979

/80

1980

/81

1981

/82

1982

/83

1983

/84

1984

/85

1985

/86

1986

/87

1987

/88

1988

/89

1989

/90

1990

/91

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

Visits (millions)

Page 5

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4

Visits by Region

2011/12 2010/11

Percent

Change

Northeast 11,020,756 13,886,888 -20.6%

Southeast 4,404,654 5,789,279 -23.9%

Midwest 6,382,176 7,811,077 -18.3%

Rocky Mountain 19,130,471 20,900,328 -8.5%

Pacific Southwest 6,066,273 8,111,298 -25.2%

Pacific Northwest 3,962,077 4,041,627 -2.0%

US TOTAL 50,966,407 60,540,496 -15.8%

Page 6Page 6

Percent Change in state visits

Page 7

CA-25.8%

AZ-24.0%

ND, SD-36.9%

IL, IN-30.8%

PA-26.0%

NY-25.6%

OH-26.2%

NC, TN, AL-20.5%

VA, MD-29.6%

NH-20.9% MA

-26.2%

NJ-23.7%

IA, MO-15.9%

NV-16.3%

CO-10.5%

MN-16.9%ID

-14.3% WI-14.9%

MI-15.9%

VT-18.2%

CT, RI-19.6%

MT-6.7%

OR-6.9%

UT-8.2%

WA-0.4%

ME-6.7%

WV-7.9%

WY0.2%

NM25.7%

Percent Change in Visits

Down 20+%

Down 10% to 20%

Down 0% to 10%

Up

AK10.3%

Page 7

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5

Share of Visits by State

Colorado21.9%

California10.6%

Utah7.6%

Vermont6.8%

New York6.1%

Pennsylvania5.2%

Michigan3.8%

Wisconsin3.8%

Washington3.7%

New Hampshire3.6%

Oregon3.0%

Idaho2.7%

Minnesota2.5%

Montana2.5%

Maine2.4%

Massachusetts2.1%

Wyoming1.5% All Other States (20)

10.7%

Page 8

Snowfall

• 2010/11 was the best snowfall season in 20

years, 2011/12 was the worst in 20 years

• Down 41 percent on average

• Every region experienced

a decreased snowfall and

number of days open

• 51% opened late, 49%

closed early

Page 9Page 9

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6

Snow DepthFebruary 10, 2011

Page 10Page 10

Snow DepthFebruary 10, 2012

Page 11Page 11

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7

High Temperature RecordsMarch 2012

Page 12Page 12

Visits by Ticket Type

• Paid ticket percentage fell to 52% of visits;

season pass jumped to 38%

Page 14

56.0%

55.7%

54.2%

51.6%

34.3%

34.6%

36.5%

38.1%

6.3%

6.3%

6.0%

6.5%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

3.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

Paid Tickets Season Pass Comp/ Other Non-Paid Off-Duty Employee

Page 14

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8

Trends in Ticketing• Advanced purchase

• Variable pricing

• RFID

• Variations in multi-day

• Distribution channels

• Partnerships

• Move away from date-based deadlines towards quantity-based deadlines

Page 15

Page 16

Mountain Collective• Example of a joint ticket/ pass with a unique

partnership and designed with consumer research inputs

9/20/2012

9

Lessons

• Lessons taught per area averaged 19,800 per

area, down 8.8%

• Lesson participation rate up to 8.2% from 7.7%

• Positive impact on revenue and long-term

growth

Page 18Page 18

Snowboarding

• Snowboarding trending down, particularly in

the Pacific Southwest

• Total is 30.2% of visits,

down from 31.1% two

seasons ago

• Questions as to whether

enthusiasm for snow-

boarding is waning

Page 19Page 19

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10

Non-ski activities• Winter

– Tubing, mountain coaster, zip lines, and others

• Summer– Weddings/conferences/

meetings

– Health/spa/wellness/yoga

– Mountain biking

– Golf

– 10.3% of annual revenue occurs in summer

Page 20

Demographics• Long-term gradual trend towards older, more

families and fewer singles

Page 21

7%0%

-12%-8%

13%

76%

129%

115%

-15%

5%

25%

45%

65%

85%

105%

125%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

4 - 12 13 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 80

Skie

r/Sn

ow

bo

ard

er V

isit

s (M

illi

on

s)

1996/97 1997/98 1998/99

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Page 21

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11

Capital Expenditures• Ski areas cutting back, but spending on most

critical needs still essential

Page 22Page 22

$263

$366

$339

$461$453

$397

$243

$277

$300

$189

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13*

Tota

l C

ap

ita

l Ex

pe

nd

itu

res

(mil

lio

ns)

Season

Summer/fall specific

Real estate

Other on-mtn

New/upgraded lifts

*projected

Will they come back?

• 75% will return

• Biggest factors driving likelihood to return

– Likelihood to recommend

– Overall experience today

– Overall employee service / knowledge

– Lesson attributes

– Value (overall value, lift ticket value)

– Overall equipment rental satisfaction

– Ski Patrol visibility

Page 23Page 23

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Overall Satisfaction

• Satisfaction with overall experience generally

trending upward

Page 24Page 24

8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5

55%57% 58% 58%

60% 61%59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Average Percent 9 or 10

Employee Service

• More steady improvement in satisfaction with

employee service, especially in 2011/12

Page 25Page 25

8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9

61% 61% 63% 62% 64% 65%69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Average Percent 9 or 10

9/20/2012

13

Page 26

What’s Next?

Page 26

Takeaways• Snow inspires visitation

• Momentum and perceptions early season have lasting impact

• Opportunity to address infrastructure shortfalls

• Consider greater emphasis on pricing and pre-sold/advance purchase products

• Evaluate the variety and diversity of activities/ amenities, both in season and across seasons

• Ensure that Learning Center programs are reaching their potential

• Building a relationship with your customers over time pays dividends

Page 27Page 27

9/20/2012

14

THANK YOU

info@rrcassoc.com • www.rrcinfo.com