NS4054 Fall Term 2014

Climate Change, Energy and Security

Overview

• Uncertainty?

• Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo

• Type of security concerns?

• Adaptation

• Consequence management• Policy responses• Implications for energy security

2

Climate Change I

• Little uncertainty over the direction of change

• Statistical analysis of data on climate• Some uncertainty over speed of change

• Wide variety of sources and models on data

• Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions

• Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur

3

Climate Change II

• Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation is a major contributor to climate change

• Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact:

• Reduce use of fossil fuels

• Increase efficiency of use of fossil fuels

• Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change

• Implications for energy security are mixed.

4

Climate Change III

5

Climate Change IV

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Climate Change V

Types of Climate Change Issues• Not just data in temperatures

• Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems

• Decline in polar icecaps

• Increase in number and duration of droughts

• Increased frequency of extreme weather events• Concern over rate of change and potential for

acceleration

• Short-term challenges of responding to sudden changes

• Long term challenges of adaptation

7

Climate Change VI

Consequence management concerns• Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces

• Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important?

• Consequential for budgets, planning and programs?

• Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change

• International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?

8

Climate Change VII

• Adaptation support

• Food and water

• Health

• Energy• Human security

• Migration

• Armed conflict• Governance

• State viability

• Economic viability

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Climate Change VIII

• Five Climate Threats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries

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Climate Change IX

• Projected Temperature Increase in Africa 2040, 2090

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Climate Change X

• Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

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Climate Change XI

• Dependence on Inflows/Water Transfers

13

Climate Change XII

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Climate Change XIII

Role of environmental policy• Case of both market failure and government failure• So what should government focus on?

• Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change

• Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end users get prices right

• Establish simple rules of the game

• Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right

15

Climate Change XIV

• Policy Tools• Internalize climate change costs

• Create markets

• Regulate sources• Market facilitation (information)• Stimulate technological development• Ease economic adaptation• Pursue international coordinated response

16

Climate Change XV

Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations

• White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

• Identify gaps in climate data

• Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes

• NOAA/NSA

• Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations

• DNI

• Climate change>human security>national security?

• Develop indicators

17

Climate Change XVI

Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations (contd.)• NSC

• Coordinate whole of government approach• DoD

• Continued focus on military support for civilian authorities (MSCA) and emergence response to catastrophic weather

• Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, especially water

• Enhance partner resilience

• Conflict/avoidance/shaping efforts

• Focus on Africa as region at high risk

• Littoral risk assessment and adaptation

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Climate Change XVII

• Implications for energy security• Core policy is to reduce use of fusil fuels and

associated emissions• Benefits to energy security

• Greater focus on efficiency

• Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America

• More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower

• Cons for security in general

19

Climate Change XVIII

Final Thoughts• Already successful states

• Cost to address/mitigate climate change

• Competition for capital with other states

• Magnets for mitigation

• Looked to for aid and disaster response• Less developed states

• Varying impact of climate change• Poor governance increases risks• Lower ability to adapt especially in agricultural

economies• Trans nationalization of conflicts over water, resources

• Less able to manage uncertainty?20