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The RTS index (converted to EUR) lost 15.6% in Septem-ber 2011. NSP Russia Discovery “A “ shares were down by 21.2%.There is currently a widening discount on Russia com-pared to other emerging markets and fundamentals, as investors remain fearful over the ongoing global financial turmoil. Based on our fundamental valuations the market discount to fair value appears to be the largest seen dur-ing the last 24 months. The discount suggests that inves-tors count on the negative scenario which involves the world re-entering recession and a falling oil price. We be-lieve that the probability of this negative scenario is low. While the brewing crisis in Europe will affect Russia, we do not see any events leading to a global recession. We feel that upside and downside risks are balanced at cur-rent price levels, with downside pressure on the markets coming predominantly from technical sources such as the closing of risk positions and continued redemptions. We believe that Greece’s “orderly default” has been “priced in” by the market. We maintain a constructive view on major commodities, with our core assumption that the demand will continue to be stable and nothing has changed structurally on the supply side in industrial commodities and oil markets. The only question is when the supply problems will come back on the radars of in-vestors. We believe that in 2012 the oil markets will be tighter than many investors think. We are positively sur-prised how well supported bulk commodities prices are, especially iron ore and coking coal. The Russian economy has been relatively resilient to the global turbulence, with 8mo 2011 economic growth standing at 4% and September growth figures accelerat-ing to 5%. We think that 3Q GDP figure will surprise on the upside proving wrong the analysts who slashed the growth forecasts earlier this year. We continue to believe that inflation will be in the area of 7-7.5% in 2011 – the lowest reading in Russia since 1992, with 2012 forecast pointing to a 5-6% range. Oil price – the most often discussed driver of the Russian economy poses a smaller risk to corporate earnings than commonly believed. Even if the price of Brent Oil would
drop from currently USD 100 to USD 80-90 and would stay in that corridor longer than we anticipate, corporate sector earnings would be resilient for 1-1.5 years. Many Russian economists believe that a Brent price of USD 80 is positive for Russia due to its negative impact on gov-ernment spending. However, a potential correction in the oil price from USD 100 to USD 80 has an impact on the economy and on the state budget. It is not that impor-tant for the corporate sector. Russian oil majors still keep a Brent Oil forecast of USD 70-75 for 2011 and USD 90–95 for 2012. Many critics of Russia forget that the average oil price in 2010 was below USD 80 and Russia delivered a GDP growth above 5%. Currently the economy is not overheated and there are no bubbles in the economy. There are much lower risks for the asset prices to fall than in 2008.In today’s challenging environment we remain optimistic whilst monitoring valuations and market actions actively. Herd behavior is one of the human characteristics which is known to amplify during volatile periods thus creating further volatility. Hence, instead of blindly pulling out of the market - we stay focused and see increased opportu-nities and even completely new investment ideas based on picking up value at the right price. The new value themes arise from a tougher economic environment in industry sectors where certain companies are able to bet-ter adjust to the new conditions and thus strengthen their market position, leaving less able competition behind. In general, the current valuations for leading Russian com-panies (0.2-0.25 Fair Value) are at new short term lows since autumn 2008, which brings it closer to the late 2008 bottom (0.1-0.15 Fair Value). In our view both equity and commodity markets may experience considerable posi-tive reactions due to short covering as soon as investors abandon the current panic scenario. At the moment the Russian market is stressed by an unusually high level of open short positions. We believe that a substantial re-pricing of assets will take place shortly after the risk ap-petite starts to increase on a global scale.
NSP Russia Discovery Fund - Class A
INVESTMENT TEAMOur Emerging Markets Equity team comprises 9 experienced investment professionals.
Maxim AchkasovHead of Russian Equities
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVENSP Russia Discovery fund provides a broad actively managed exposure to the Russian market. The investment process is based on fundamental and geopolitical analysis as well as on active grass root level research. The fund focuses on fu-ture investment stories and themes rather than retrospectively looking at past occurrences. Being part of a benchmark index is not reason to invest for us – we aim to capture long-term trends while exploiting opportunities arising from short-term market inefficiencies. The Fund implements Environmental, Social and Governance issues in accordance with the UN Principles for Responsible Investment to a reasonable degree considering the investment universe.
Fund Size (EUR) 21.7M
Total Expense Ratio 2.9%
NAV 56.17
Number of Holdings 19
Total Expense Ratio1 2.9%
Portfolio Turnover Rate 15.9%
1before performance fee
ISIN LU0587759167
Benchmark RTS Index (EUR)
Currency EUR
Bloomberg LNSPRDA LX
Quotation Daily
Launch Date 28.04.2011
Domicile Luxembourg
Performance None
Management 2.5%
MONTHLY FACTS
BASIC INFORMATION
FEES AND CHARGES
Subscription (max) 5.0%
Redemption (max) 1.0%
MANAGER COMMENTARY
The view on September winners and losers is rather ex-ceptional as it features only one holding that ended the month in positive territory. The recent fundamentals-igno-rant downturn makes it difficult to comment on winners and losers in our portfolio. It appears that investors fail to pay attention to the positive macro-economic stance and cheap valuations because of the looming probability that these will change if the world re-enters recession and the price of oil and other commodities might collapse. As markets remain very vulnerable to the flow of contro-versial global data we focus on validating the long term investment case of our holdings, while paying less atten-tion to short-term performance and the current pricing of
Russian small and mid cap stocks. That said, please find the best and worst performing stocks during the month of September below.
Winners and Losers
Portfolio and Strategy
IDGC of Center AND VolgaInter-Regional DistributionOGK-4
2.6%-9.1%
-11.0%
0.0%-0.2%-0.7%
Mechel-Sponsored ADRCTC MediaUralkali GDR
-46.0%-43.5%-31.7%
-2.8%-2.5%-2.3%
2monthly, 3including currency effect
Best
Wor
st
return2 contribution2,3
September 2011
Type UCITS
CONTACT
Fax +372 628 2370
e-mail [email protected]
Phone +372 712 0801
Web www.limestonefunds.eu
SHARE CLASS PERFORMANCE
CONTACT
ALLOCATION
Fax +372 628 2370
e-mail [email protected]
Phone +372 712 0801
Web www.limestonefunds.eu
September 2011Limestone Investment Management is a signatory to the UN Principles for Re-sponsible Investment
Russian FederationGeorgiaUkraineKazakhstanOtherCash
73.0%10.9%
4.4%0.0%0.0%
11.7%
Consumer DiscretionaryMaterialsFinancialsInformation TechnologyEnergyUtilitiesConsumer StaplesIndustrialsReal EstateHealth CareTelecommunication ServicesCash
20.5%18.9%14.1%13.9%10.5%
6.0%4.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11.7%
ETHICAL INVESTMENT
IBS Group HoldingBank of Georgia GDRM VideoRosinter RestaurantsUralkali GDRIntegra Group Holdings GDREvraz Group GDROGK-4Mechel-Sponsored ADRCTC Media
13.9%10.9%10.3%
6.4%6.2%4.4%4.3%3.9%3.8%3.8%
The aim of the Monthly Report is to give general information regarding financial markets and economic trends in an educational context only. This document is published for infor-mational purposes only and is issued by the Limestone Investment Management AS. The opinions expressed in this report are those held by the authors at date of this document and may be subject to change. This report shall not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell, or a recommendation for, a security, or any other product or service. In particular, the information herein is not for distribution, and does not constitute an offer to sell or buy, or the solicitation of any offer to sell or buy, any securities in the United States of America or for the account of an US Persons. The views expressed herein are not to be taken as investment research, investment advice or recommendation for investors. Unless otherwise specified, you alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should always seek your own independent professional advice, if necessary.All reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that information in this report is in accordance with the facts, accurate and up to date and contain no omission likely to affect its import. Certain financial information presented in this report has been obtained directly from annual or semi-annual reports of a particular fund. The presentation of such financial information is based on IFRS as adopted by the EU. Certain information in this report has been sourced from a third party, with reference to such source being provided, and although we have made reasonable efforts to ensure that such information is in accordance with the facts, accurate and up to date and contain no omission likely to affect its import or ren-der the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading, we accept no liability relating to such information. Certain financial and other information set forth in this report may be rounded off for your convenience. Reference to a website should not be deemed to incorporate information by reference. We accept no liability for the content of websites to which reference is provided in this report or from which reference is provided to this report. Shares or units in funds are offered only on the basis of the information contained in the particular fund’s documents including, without limitation, the risk factors of the fund. Investment in funds should be made based on the most recent offer documents relating to the particular fund (e.g. prospectus, simplified prospectus or key investor information document, or other applicable terms and conditions, latest available audited annual report and, if published thereafter, the latest unaudited semi-annual report, available at www.limestonefunds.eu).When making your investments you should always bear in mind, that (i) the value of investments may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested; (ii) past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance; (iii) rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go down or up; and (iv) different funds (and investments) have different levels of risk and reference should be made to the relevant prospectus for further details of the financial commitments and risks involved with investing in particular fund.The entire content of this report is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. You may not copy, reproduce, distribute, transmit (by electronic means or otherwise) or modify the contents in whole or in part without written permission. The information provided on this website is for personal, non-commercial use.Issued by: Limestone Investment Management AS, registration code 11415614, registered address at Väike-Karja 12, 10140 Tallinn, Estonia. Limestone Investment Management AS is authorized and regulated by the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority (www.fi.ee) as a fund management company.
STATISTICS
Best Monthly ReturnWorst Monthly ReturnStandard DeviationSharpe
2.2%-22.3%
Price/Earnings (projected)Price/BookDividend Yield
7.71.9
1.6%
DISCLAIMER
Abs
olut
e
Larg
est P
ositi
ons
Coun
try
Sect
or
Fund
amen
tals
NSP Russia Discovery Fund - Class A
1 Month 3 Months 1 Year 3 Years Inception
-21.2% -37.4% -43.8%Fund (Class A)
YTD4 2010 2009 2008
-43.8%
4since 28.04.2011
Best Monhtly AlphaWorst Monthly AlphaTracking ErrorBeta
0.2%-8.8%
Rela
tive
-15.6% -24.1% -27.3%-5.6% -13.3% -16.5%
BenchmarkExcess Return
-27.3%-16.5%