NRIC IV Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1 Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry Book 2.final 1 NRIC IV Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment

1

NRIC IV Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry

Book 2 .final

NRIC IV Focus Group One

Subcommittee 1Network Assessment Report #2

April 14th, 1999

Federal Communications Commission

Washington, D.C.

Gerry RothVice President

GTE Technology Programs

This document and the information contained herein is intended, and for all purposes shall be deemed, a Year 2000 statement and a Year 2000 readiness disclosure as those terms are defined under United States federal law

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Book 2 .final

Executive Summary• United States Public Network Status

– U.S. Telephone Service providers are on track to complete Year 2000 remediation programs

• Approximately 90% of the local, and 99% of the long distance switches in the U.S. Public Switched Network are deployed as of March 1999

• Mid and small sized local companies trail the larger companies, but appear to be on track for 3rd and 4th quarter 1999 completion

– Major carriers predict the Y2K completion and roll-out of all essential systems and products by June 1999

• NRIC is estimating 98% by June to allow some margin of error

• No company is indicating technical difficulty with completion

• Range of responses is very narrowly distributed around the average

• International Risk Assessment– From all sources, the perceived risk of compliance has increased since our last

report• Approximately 75 % of countries sampled have increased risk

• 191 countries assessed, vs. 84 in December

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Book 2 .final

Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Status Large Local Exchange Carriers(greater than 92% of U.S. Access Lines)

94%

71%

54%

62%

98%

82%

74%77%

94%90%

92%

100% 100%98%

99% 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Assessment Renovation Validation ImplementationSept. '98 (act.) Dec. '98 (act.) Mar. '99 (est.) Jun. '99 (est.)

Essential Systems Only

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Book 2 .final

Y2K Network Compliance Status Large Local Exchange Carriers

73%

63% 64%

83%

73%76%

90%

84% 85%

100% 98% 98%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% Switches Y2KReady

% Non-SwitchNetwork

Components Y2KReady

% Network & ISApplications Y2K

Ready

Sept. '98 (act.) Dec. '98 (act.) Mar. '99 (est.) Jun. '99 (est)


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Book 2 .final

98%

82%

74%77%

98%

66%

86%84%

49%

18%

13%17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Assessment Renovation Validation Implementation

Large Mid-Size Small

December 1998 Actuals

Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Comparison Large, Midsize, and Small Local Exchange Carriers


Data Source:• Large--NRIC• Midsize--NRIC/USTA• Small--NRIC/FCC


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Book 2 .final

83%

73%76%

86%

57%

34%

19%14%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% Switches Y2KReady

% Non-SwitchNetwork

Components Y2KReady


Ready

Large Mid-Size Small

Y2K Network Compliance Comparison Large, Midsize, and Small Local Exchange Carriers


Data Source:• Large--NRIC• Midsize--NRIC/USTA• Small--NRIC/FCC


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Book 2 .final

Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Status Major Inter-Exchange Carriers

(82% of U.S. Revenue)99%

86%

78%

62%

100%97%

94%

86%

100% 100%98%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Assessment Renovation Validation ImplementationDec. '98 (act.) Mar. '99 (est.) Jun. '99 (est.)


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Book 2 .final

Y2K Network Compliance Status Major Inter-Exchange Carriers

90%

71% 71%

99%

85%89%

100% 98% 98%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% Switches Y2KReady

% Non-SwitchNetwork

Components Y2KReady


Ready

Dec. '98 (act.) Mar. '99 (est.) Jun. '99 (est.)


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Book 2 .final

International Status

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Book 2 .final

International Status by RegionComparison to Prior Report

Prior Status - Dec 1998

Cur

rent

Sta

tus

- M

ar 1

999

No Change

10% Increase

Sub Sahara Africa

Indian Sub Cont.

Central & SouthAmerica

Middle East & North Africa

Eastern Europe

Asia Pacific

North America

Western Europe

Low Risk Med Risk High Risk

Low

Risk

Med

Ris

kHi

gh R

isk

5

4

3

2

1

4 3 2 1

Countries: 84 Dec. /191 Mar.

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Book 2 .final

Change in Risk Perception - December to March Telecommunications Risk Assessment by Country

Prior Status - Dec 1998

Cu

rre

nt S

tatu

s -

Ma

r 1

99

9

No Change

10% Increase

Low

Risk

Low Risk

Med

Ris

k

Med Risk High Risk

High

Ris

k

5

4

3

2

1

4 3 2 1

Countries: 84

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Book 2 .final

International Status by Region Perceptions of Risk - April 1999

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Su

b S

ah

ara

Afr

ica

Ind

ian

su

b c

on

tine

nt

Mid

dle

Ea

st &

No

rth

Afr

ica

(no

t Isr

ae

l)

Ea

ste

rn E

uro

pe

(in

c.R

uss

ia)

Ce

ntr

al &

So

uth

Am

eri

ca

Asi

a P

aci

fic

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

We

ste

rn E

uro

pe

(in

c. Is

rae

l)

The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply: 4.1 - 5.0 = Low Risk 3.1 - 4.0 = Medium Risk 1.0 - 3.0 = High Risk; based

on uncertainty

Regional Range of

Responses

Regional Average

Score

Level of Risk

High

Medium

Low

High Risk4th Q or Unknown

Medium Risk3rd Q

Low Risk2nd Q or Before Countries: 191

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Book 2 .final

International Status by Region Comparison of Perceptions of Risk - December to March

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0(1

2/9

8)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

(12

/98

)

(3/9

9)

Sub Indian Middle East Eastern Central & Asia North Western Sahara Sub & Europe South Pacific America Europe Africa Continent North Africa (inc. Russia) America (inc. Israel)

High Risk4th Q or Unknown

Medium Risk3rd Q

Low Risk2nd Q or Before

The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply: 4.1 - 5.0=Low Risk; 3.1 - 4.0=Medium Risk;1.0 - 3.0=High Risk; based on uncertainty

Level of Risk

High

Medium

Low

Countries: 84 Dec. /191 Mar

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Book 2 .final

Level of Risk

High

Medium

Low

High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk

International Status by CountryPerceptions of Risk

Countries: 191

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Book 2 .final

Level of Risk

High

Medium

Low

High Impact Low ImpactMedium Impact

High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk

International Status by CountryPerceptions of Risk Impact

Countries: 191

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Book 2 .final

Col

umbi

a (3

29)

Chi

na (

450)

Indi

a (6

29)

Dom

inic

an R

ep. (

488)

Taiw

an (

553)

Isra

el (

378)

Phi

lippi

nes

(449

)V

enez

uela

(28

4)M

exic

o (3

704)

Arg

entin

a (2

67)

Bra

zil (

657)

Italy

(59

8) So.

Kor

ea (

625)

Spa

in (

279)

Sw

eden

(24

1)Ja

mai

ca (

313)

Net

herla

nds

(328

)Ja

pan

(117

0)C

anad

a (7

100)

Ger

man

y (1

319)

Fra

nce

(717

)S

inga

pore

(26

1)H

ong

Kon

g (7

56)

Sw

itzer

land

(33

4)A

ustr

alia

(50

7)U

K (

2483

)E

l Sal

vado

r (1

67)

Gua

tem

ala

(142

)E

gypt

(12

2)H

ondu

ras

(123

)N

iger

ia (

111)

Vie

tnam

(16

1) Sau

di A

rabi

a (1

44)

Ecu

ador

(17

5)C

osta

Ric

a (1

02)

The

Bah

amas

(11

3)C

uba

(120

)R

ussi

a (1

36)

Pol

and

(198

)P

akis

tan

(173

)S

outh

Afr

ica

(142

)In

done

sia

(147

)M

alay

sia

(110

)G

reec

e (1

32)

Tha

iland

(14

4)C

hile

(19

1)N

orw

ay (

119)

Den

mar

k (1

03)

New

Zea

land

(14

8)P

eru

(189

)B

elgi

um (

170)

Trin

idad

/Tob

ago

(121

)Ir

elan

d (1

84)

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

High

Medium

Low

Country Name (Millions of Annual Minutes)

Major Interest> 200M Minutes

Significant InterestBetween 200M - 100M Minutes

Level of Risk

Countries of Major and Significant Interest to the U.S.(as determined by International Traffic Patterns, sorted by Perceived Risk)

Total 1997 Traffic = 29,106 mMittCountries: 53

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Book 2 .final

Y2K Risk to U.S. International TrafficTo and From Countries with greater than 100mMitt Total Traffic

*mMitt: million of Minutes of Intercontinental Telecommunications Traffic

mMitt Source: Telegeography, Inc.

Countries: 53

48%

34%

18%

High Risk9,917 mMitt

Low Risk5,153 mMitt

Medium Risk14,036 mMitt

Total Traffic = 29,106 mMittTotal 1997 Traffic = 29,106 mMitt

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Book 2 .final

Review of Year 2000 Recommendationsfrom 14 January 1998 Report

• Increase Wireless participation from CTIA and FCC data collection

– Covered in the FCC report, NRIC will not use in Network assessment

• Map Key Government Installations to coverage areas (in process)

– Using NCS inquiry to USG

– NARUC offices to obtain small company status

• Risk methodology added to plan completeness

– Draft definition of “Done” - to be included in round 3

– Individual companies need to indicate results

• Assess impact with other sectors

– Tri-industry group meetings have begun

– Electric - Telecommunications - Oil & Gas

• NRIC working with International Y2K Telecom User Alliance, ITU, FCC, and State Department on international status assessments

Documents

NRIC IV Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1 Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry Book 2.final 1 NRIC IV Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment