Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
NPRR351 Look-Ahead SCED Update. Sai Moorty/Hailong Hui ERCOT METF October 26, 2012. Outlines. Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing RTD VS SCED Summary for Study Period 09/24/2012-10/21/2012 GTBD and System Lambda Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Load Zones LMP MAE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
NPRR351 Look-Ahead SCED Update
Sai Moorty/Hailong HuiERCOT
METFOctober 26, 2012
2
Outlines
• Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing• RTD VS SCED Summary for Study Period 09/24/2012-10/21/2012
– GTBD and System Lambda Mean Absolute Error (MAE)– Load Zones LMP MAE– GTBD Error for Interval 6– System Lambda Error for Interval 6
• RTD VS SCED Price Spikes Analysis for Interval 6– On 09/24/2012, RTD had false price spike around $4000/MWh
at Interval Ending (IE) 22:05 due to RTD shutdown profiling logic– On 09/27/2012, SCED had price spikes at SWCAP at IE 11:50
due to unit forced outage and RTD didn’t see it– On 10/10/2012, RTD had false price spikes at $4501/MWh at IE
17:05 and $4000/MWh at IE17:10.
METFOctober 26, 2012
3
Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing
• STLF Uses the Neural Network Algorithm.
• STLF runs every 5 minutes with 15 seconds offset, e.g. HH:05:15.
• STLF reads the each load area (SOUTHERN,WEST,COAST,NORTH,
EAST, SOUTH_C,FAR_WEST,NORTH_C) instantaneous load value from SCADA every 4 seconds over current 5 minute interval and calculates the 5 minute average value of actual load at the end of the current interval. (LFC calculates the load area actual load value and writes to SCADA every 4 seconds and STLF simply reads the data from SCADA).
• STLF uses the last two hours 5-minute interval actual load (5 minute average) to forecast current interval + next 11 intervals forecast.
• STLF looks at previous day profile (actual – 5 minute average load) for load shape. If it is Monday, STLF looks at last week Thursday profile and if it is Saturday it looks at last week Saturday & Friday profile. If it is Sunday it looks at Saturday profile.
METFOctober 26, 2012
4
RTD VS SCED Summary: GTBD and System Lambda MAE
METFOctober 26, 2012
5
RTD VS SCED Summary: Load Zones LMP MAE
METFOctober 26, 2012
6
RTD VS SCED Summary: GTBD Error (Interval 6)
METFOctober 26, 2012
7
RTD VS SCED Summary: System Lambda Error (Interval 6)
METFOctober 26, 2012
8
RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 24SEP2012
METFOctober 26, 2012
9
SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 24SEP2012
METFOctober 26, 2012
10
RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 27SEP2012
METFOctober 26, 2012
11
SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 27SEP2012
METFOctober 26, 2012
12
RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 10OCT2012
METFOctober 26, 2012
13
SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 10OCT2012
METFOctober 26, 2012
