NPFMC -- Jane DiCosimo

NMFS -- Loh-Lee LowMike SiglerGrant Thompson Lowell FritzAndy Smoker

USF&W -- Kathy Kuletz ADF&G -- Ivan Vining

Kristin MabreyUniv.Alaska -- Brenda Norcross WDF&W -- Farron Wallace Halibut Comm-- Bill Clark

BSAI Plan Team Members (12 Members)

Total U.S.LandingsTotal U.S.Landings

4.9 million mt (1998-2001)4.9 million mt (1998-2001)

24%

51%

10%5%

10% Northeast

Southeast

Alaska

Pacific Coast

Western Pacific

Alaska LandingsAlaska Landings2.5 million mt (1998-2001)2.5 million mt (1998-2001)

2%

15%2% 0%

81%

Groundfish

Shellfish

Salmon

Herring

Nearshore

Alaska Groundfish LandingsAlaska Groundfish Landings2.0 million mt (1998-2001)2.0 million mt (1998-2001)

10%2%

88%

Bering Sea-Aleutians

Gulf of Alaska

Halibut

Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska LandingsLandings

2.5 million mt (1998-2001 Average)2.5 million mt (1998-2001 Average)Average Annual Ex-Vessel value = $822 Average Annual Ex-Vessel value = $822

MillionMillion

Herring

1%

Salmon

28%

Shellfish

21%

Nearshore

0%

Groundfish

50%

Bering Sea-Aleutians Groundfish Bering Sea-Aleutians Groundfish CatchCatch

25 Year History (in thousands of mt)25 Year History (in thousands of mt)

0

200400600800

100012001400160018002000

Years 1977-2001

Exploitable BiomassExploitable Biomass

By Major Species Groups

BSAI Exploitable BiomassBSAI Exploitable BiomassYr 2003 Total = 19.66 MMTYr 2003 Total = 19.66 MMT

Pollock-EBS56%

Rockfish Total3%

Sablefish0%

Others4%

Atka Mackerel2%

Pacific Cod8%Pollock-

Bogoslof1%

Pollock-AI1%

Flatfish Total25%

BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassBSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMTYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT

Yellowfin Sole32%

Flatfish Sole12%

Greenland Turbot

2%

Arrowtooth Flounder

13%

Rock Sole18%

Other Flatfish23%

BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassBSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 596,000 MTYr 2002 Total = 596,000 MT

Northern27%

Other Red - AI2%

Other R - EBS1%

Shortraker+Rougheye

5%

POP65%

Estimated ABCsEstimated ABCs

By Major Species Groups

BSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs BSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs Yr 2003 Total = 3.33 MMTYr 2003 Total = 3.33 MMT

(Up 147,000 mt from 2002)(Up 147,000 mt from 2002)

Pollock-EBS70%

Flatfishes 17%

Pollock-AI1%

Pollock-Bogoslof

1%

Pacific Cod7%

Atka Mackerel2%

Others1%

Sablefish0% Rockfish Total

1%

BSAI Flatfish Complex ABCBSAI Flatfish Complex ABCYr 2003 Total = 559,880 MTYr 2003 Total = 559,880 MT

Yellowfin Sole20%

Flatfish Sole12%

Greenland Turbot

1%

Arrowtooth Flounder

20%

Rock Sole20%

Alaska Plaice24%

Other Flatfish3%

BSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsBSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsYr 2003 Total = 24,663 MTYr 2003 Total = 24,663 MT

POP60%

Shortraker-Rougheye

4%

Other R - EBS2%

Other R - AI4% Northern

28%

DescriptionDescription

Species-by-SpeciesSpecies-by-Species

Assessment Theme Assessment Theme ABC = Biomass x Exploitation

Rate1. Determine Biomass from

-- Surveys….Hydroacoustics, Trawls-- Models…..Age or Length-Structure

Models

2. Determine Exploitation Rates-- F msy

-- F overfishing ……. Example F 35%

-- F abc …………… Example F 40%

Assessment Theme Assessment Theme

Fishing Rates chosen according to 6 Tiers of Data Quality (Pages 5-6 of SAFE Summary)

Tier 1 -- reliable B, Bmsy, pdf of Fmsy Tier 2 -- reliable B, Bmsy, Fmsy, F35, F40Tier 3 – reliable B, B40, F35, F40Tier 4 – reliable B, F35, F40Tier 5 -- reliable B and MTier 6 –- reliable Catch History Data

EBS PollockEBS Pollock

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

0020

02

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Catch (MMT)

Age 1 Billions

Biomass (MMT)

EBS Pollock AssessmentEBS Pollock AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Year 2002 SurveysBottom Trawl Biomass = 4.82 mmt, up 16%EIT Survey Biomass = 3.6 mmt, up 18%

2. Year 2002 Models7 scenarios of Age-Structure Models, Used Model 1Age3+ Biomass for 2003 = 11.8 mmt, up 6%

3. Recruitment1998 & 1999 Year Classes both Above Average

Aleutian Island Region Aleutian Island Region Pollock AssessmentPollock Assessment

Survey Biomass

80

8386

9194 97 0

2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Year

1. Model don’t work, Not unit stock

2. Survey Biomass Year Biomass 1991 167,140 1994 77,503 1997 93,512 2000 105,554 2002 175,000

3. ABC = 0.75 * B2002

(Tier 5)

Bogoslof Region PollockBogoslof Region PollockSurvey BiomassSurvey Biomass

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002

Biomass (MMT)

Bogoslof Region Pollock ABCBogoslof Region Pollock ABC

1. Plan Team Method – Tier 5 ABC = Biomass x 0.75 M

ABC = 34,000 mt

2. SSC Method – Use 2 mmt as Target Biomass

ABC = 4,070 mt

BSAI Pacific CodBSAI Pacific Cod

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

0020

02

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Catch (MMT)

Age 3 RecruitsMillions

Age 3+Bio

96

Pacific Cod AssessmentPacific Cod AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Year 2002 Surveys-- EBS Trawl Biomass = 617,000 t, down26%

2. Year 2002 Model-- Update of Last Year’s Model-- Estimated 2003 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.68 mmt, up 9%

3. Recruitment-- Year classes since 1992 have been below average

-- Except for above average 1996 & 1999 year classes

EBS Yellowfin SoleEBS Yellowfin Sole

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

0020

02

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4Catch (MMT)

Age 5 Billions

Age 2+Biom

Yellowfin Sole AssessmentYellowfin Sole AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Survey Biomass

-- Relatively high biomass, doubled from 1975-79-- Declining in recent years as strong year classes passes out of the population2. Models-- Estimated 2003 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.55 mmt, down 1% -- biomass is still high but definitely declining3. Recruitment-- Lowered recruitment in last decade

EBS Greenland TurbotEBS Greenland Turbot

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Catch (TMT)

Age 2 Millions

Age 1+Biom (TMT)

Greenland Turbot AssessmentGreenland Turbot AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Survey Biomass-- EBS Trawl Biomass assess juveniles only

2. Modeling-- Yr 2003 Age 1+ biomass = 115,700 mt, down 5-- biomass is generally low and relatively stable

3. Recruitment-- Generally Low recruitment in last 2 decades

EBS Arrowtooth FlounderEBS Arrowtooth Flounder

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Catch (TMT)

Age 2 (Milions)

Age 1+Biom (TMT)

EBS Rock SoleEBS Rock Sole

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500Catch (tmt)

Age 4 Billions

Age 2+Biom (TMT)

EBS Flathead SoleEBS Flathead Sole

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Catch (TMT)

Age 3 Billions

Age 3+Biom (TMT)

EBS Alaska PlaiceEBS Alaska Plaice

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000Catch (TMT)

Age 2 Billions

Age 1+Biom (tmt)

Bering Sea/Aleutians POPBering Sea/Aleutians POP

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

0020

02

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Catch TMT

Age 3 Thousands

Age 3+Biom (TMT)

POP AssessmentPOP AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Present Assessment-- Single Model to Combined Bering Sea/Aleutians Areas

2. Biomass Trend-- Rather Stable Trend in recent years after some rebuilding

3. Recruitment-- Rather Poor Recruitment in recent years

Other Red Rockfish Other Red Rockfish Notable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Other Red Rockfish Split into:-- Northern-- Rougheye/Shortraker

2. Tier 5 ABC = Average 1991-2002 Survey Biomass x 0.75MStock EBS AleutiansNorthern 18 mt 6,6980 mt

(99.7%)Rougheye-Shortraker 137mt 830 mt

(85.8%)

Other Rockfish Other Rockfish AssessmentsAssessmentsNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Presently Managed as a Complex2. Author Recommend separating out Dusky Rockfish

-- Catch rate maybe as high as 34%3. Plan Team disagree, maybe catch rate estimated high

-- Noted survey biomass has not decreased

4. Tier 5 ABC = Survey Biomass x 0.75 MStock Year Survey Biomass ABC

EBS 2002 18,000 960

AI 2002 15,000 634

Aleutian Islands Atka Aleutian Islands Atka MackerelMackerel

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Catch TMT

Age 1 Billions

Age 3+Biom (TMT)

Atka Mackerel AssessmentAtka Mackerel AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. New Assessemnt Model – AD Model Builder2. Authors ABC Considerations

-- Survey Biomass 2002 = 773,000 mtup 51% from 2000 survey; Shows high variability

-- Yr 2003 Model biomass = 358,000 mt, down 7 % from Yr 2002;

-- Max Permissible F40 would yield ABC = 82,800 mt-- 1998 Year Class showing strength

3. Plan team favors using average F over last 5 years -- ABC = 51,000 mt -- slight increase over 2002 ABC of 49,000 mt

4. ABC apportioned by area using weighted last 4 survey biomass

Sablefish-all areasSablefish-all areas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Catch (TMT)

Age 2 Millions

Age 4+Biom (TMT)

Sablefish AssessmentSablefish AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Longline Survey Abundance-- Increased 5% in numbers and 7% in weight

2. Modeling-- Abundance now appears moderate

and increased from recent lows3. ABC according to Tier 3b

-- Max Permissible F 40 adjusted gives ABC = 25,400 mt-- Team and Author recommend ABC = 18,400 mt

Simulation shows spawning biomass will have low probability of dropping below historic low biomass

4. ABC is apportioned by 5-year exponential weighting of abundance indices by region: EBS, AI & GOA

Squid AssessmentSquid AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features

1. Squid ABC is calculated under Tier 6…. average catch from 1977-1995

2. Begin managing by Major Taxonomic Groups

a. For Sculpins & Skate …. ABC = Tier 5 Situation = 0.75M * Biomass

b. For Sharks and Octopus ….. ABC = Tier 6 = Average 1977-1995

Summary Summary (From Table 4)(From Table 4)

(Pollock)(Pollock)

Stock Biomass (mt)

ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 from 2002)

Pollock, EBS

11,100,000

2,330,000 Up 10 %

Pollock, AI 175,000 39,400 Up 65%

Pollock, Bogoslof

232,000 34,000 Down 6%

Summary Summary ( fromTable 4)( fromTable 4) (Cod and Sablefish)(Cod and Sablefish)

Stock Biomass (mt)

ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 from 2002)

Pacific Cod, BSAI

1,680,000 223,000 Same

Sablefish, EBS

31,000 2,550 Up 32 %

Sablefish, AI

39,000 2,740 Up 7 %

Summary ( fromTable 4) Summary ( fromTable 4)

(Flatfishes)(Flatfishes) Stock Biomass

(mt)ABC (mt) ABC

Change(2002 fr 2001)

YellFn. Sole

1,554,000 114,000 Down 2 %

Grn. Turbot

112,000 5,880 Down 27 %

Arrow. Fl 597,000 112,000 Down 1 %

Rock Sole 877,000 110,000 Down 51 %

Flathead S 550,000 66,000 Down 20 %

Alaska Plaice

1,083,000 137,000 Down 4 %

Other Flats 107,000 15,000 Down 17%

Summary Summary ( fromTable 4)( fromTable 4) (Rockfishes)(Rockfishes)

Stock Biomass (mt)

ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 fr 2002)

POP, BSAI 375,000 15,100 Up 2 %

Northern R 156,000 7,000 Up 4%

ShortRaker-Rougheye

32,000 967 Down 6%

Other R, EBS 18,000 960 Up 165%

Other R, AI 15,000 634 Down 6%

Summary Summary ( fromTable 4)( fromTable 4) (Atka Mackerel & Other Species)(Atka Mackerel & Other Species)

Stock Biomass (mt)

ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 fr 2002)

Atka Mackerel

358,300 51,000 Up 4 %

Squid NA 1,970 No Change

Other Species

695,000 60,800 Up 55 %

2003 Female Spawning Biomass 2003 Female Spawning Biomass versus Bversus B4040 Target Levels Target Levels

0

200

400

600

Pol Cod YS GT AF RS FS AP POP AM Sab

B40

SpB2003

4 Cases when Max Permissible ABC 4 Cases when Max Permissible ABC was Adjusted Down by Plan Teamwas Adjusted Down by Plan Team

Stock Maximum Permissible ABC (mt)

Recommend PT ABC

(mt)

Main Reasons for Adjustment

Pacific Cod 278,000 223,000 Risk-Adverse Optimization

Green. Turbot

17,800 5,880 Low B & R

Sablefish, All 25,400 18,400 Simulated Catch

Atka Mackerel

82,800 51,000 Average 5-Yr F

Spawning Biomass – Pacific CodSpawning Biomass – Pacific Cod

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

00

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – Greenland Spawning Biomass – Greenland

TurbotTurbot

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

2000

2002

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – SablefishSpawning Biomass – Sablefish

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 9920

02

B40

FSB

Projected Spawning Biomass – Atka Projected Spawning Biomass – Atka MackerelMackerel

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – Yellowfin Spawning Biomass – Yellowfin SoleSole

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

0020

02

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – Arrowtooth Spawning Biomass – Arrowtooth

FlounderFlounder

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820

00

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – Flathead SoleSpawning Biomass – Flathead Sole

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 9920

01

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – Alaska PlaiceSpawning Biomass – Alaska Plaice

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 9920

01

B40

FSB

Spawning Biomass – Pacific Ocean Spawning Biomass – Pacific Ocean

PerchPerch

0

50

100

150

200

250

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

2000

2002

B40

FSB

Adjustments to ABCsAdjustments to ABCs- due to Ecosystems- due to Ecosystems

The Team was unable to isolate individual cases where ABC adjustments are needed to be made to address ecosystem concerns.

BSAI Groundfish ComplexBSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2003Yr 2000 to Yr 2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

Biomass ABC

2000

2001

2002

2003

Exploitable Biomass– 19.8 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High

ABC– 3.33 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High

Year 2003 SummaryYear 2003 Summary

0

1

2

3

4

ABC TAC

ABC = 3,331,001 mt

TAC = 2,000,000 mt

5 Cases when Plan Team ABC is 5 Cases when Plan Team ABC is different from SSC’s ABCdifferent from SSC’s ABC

Stock Plan Team ABC (mt)

SSC’s Recommend ABC (mt)

Main Reasons for Adjustment

Pollock, Bogoslof

34,000 4,070 SSC Adjusted F rate

Sable fish(EBS & AI)

18,400(2,550 &

2,740)

20,900(2,900 & 3,100)

PT – constant C SSC–similar trend

Northern Rockfish

7,000 121 EBS6980 AI

Reliability of Survey Biomass

Atka Mackerel

51,000 63,000 PT – Ave 5yr FSSC – constant buffer

Other Species

60,800 43,300

From Harvest Strategy (FFrom Harvest Strategy (F4040) Report) ReportFrom Page 121“It is easy enough to say that a management system could be made more protective of ecosystem properties…….

But current knowledge does not allow precise scientific specification of what margin or threshold would be appropriate to achieve what level of protection of various ecosystem properties”

From Harvest Strategy (FFrom Harvest Strategy (F4040) Report) Report

From Page 121“The decision to use F40% rather than F35% was deliberately protective, and was intended to function as a buffer against several sources of uncertainty”

“ Nevertheless, it is not clear how much of the margin between F35% and F40% was ‘allocated’ to ecosystem considerations”

ABC Rates for RockfishesABC Rates for Rockfishes

Stock Biomass (mt)

ABC (mt) ABC Rate

POP, BSAI 375,000 15,100 4.03 %

Northern R 156,000 7,000 4.49 %

ShortRaker-Rougheye

32,000 967 3.02 %

Other R, EBS 18,000 960 5.33 %

Other R, AI 15,000 634 4.22 %

Adjust for Climatic Regime Adjust for Climatic Regime ShiftsShifts

3 Regimes – Years 1965 - 77– Years 1978 - 88– Period 1989 - 97 ?– Another Regime ?

Earlier Regimes– 1899-1924

– 1925-47

– 1948-76

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

PC1 SCORES (Hare & Mantua)

?

End of Slide PresentationEnd of Slide Presentation

Utilization of ResourcesUtilization of Resources

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

Groundfish Shellfish Salmon Herring

RAY

CPY

BSAI Groundfish ComplexBSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2003Yr 2000 to Yr 2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003

Biomass

ABC Exploitable Biomass– 19.8 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High

ABC– 3.289 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High

Spawning BiomassSpawning Biomass

Spawning Biomass -- EBS Spawning Biomass -- EBS PollockPollock

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

B40

FSB

Pacific Halibut CatchPacific Halibut Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)25 Year History (in thousands of mt)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Years 1977-2001

Gulf of Alaska Groundfish CatchGulf of Alaska Groundfish Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)25 Year History (in thousands of mt)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Years 1977-2001

EBS PollockEBS PollockLong-Term Biomass TrendLong-Term Biomass Trend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Age 3+Biomass(MMT)

Bottom Trawl SurveyBiomass (mmt)

Year-class estimates -- EBS PollockYear-class estimates -- EBS Pollock

Year class index

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999

Nu

mb

ers

at

ag

e 1

78

82

8992

96 98-99

BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassBSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT, downYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT, down

Yellowfin Sole33%

Flatfish Sole11%

Greenland Turbot

2%

Arrowtooth Flounder

12%

Rock Sole18%

Alaska Plaice22%

Other Flatfish2%

BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassBSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 596,000 MTYr 2003 Total = 596,000 MT

POP63%

Shortraker-Rougheye

5%

Other RedR -EBS3%

Other RedR - AI3% Northern

26%