10
November 2014 Monthly Update Politics The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has reached staff-level agreement with the Serbian authorities, subject to approval by the IMF’s management and executive boards, on an economic program that could be supported by a 36-month precautionary stand-by arrangement, the IMF said in a press release. The proposed access could total around EUR 1 billion, or 200% of quota. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will send a mission to Serbia in mid-May to review the country’s performance in the first quarter of 2015 under a three-year precautionary stand-by arrangement subject to approval from the IMF’s management and executive board. The Budget law for 2015, will be submitted to the Parliament in December. On November 28 th , the government adopted a bill on changes and amendments to the Law on Planning and Construction, seeking to strengthen legal security and transparency, and simplify procedures. European commissioner for neighborhood policy and enlargement negotiations Johannes Hahn said that he is certain that Serbia will open a chapter of EU accession talks in the coming weeks or months, noting that the new approach, applied to Montenegro and Serbia, is to first open chapters 23 and 24, which deal with the rule of law. Serbian Prime Minister Mr. Vucic visit to Israel described as historic by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ministers agreed that there is room for Serbia and Israel to expand their cooperation to industrial production, agriculture, information technologies, and security issues. Fiscal Sector The Securities Commission has given its approval for publishing the prospectus for Serbia’s first public offering of a munici pal bond, to be issued by the City of Sabac, Securities Commission Chairman Zoran Cirovic said on November 26 th , noting that this will also be the first municipal bond to be listed on the Belgrade Stock Exchange (BSE). In October 2014, public debt of the Republic of Serbia increased from RSD 2,628.3bn (EUR 22.1bn) at the end of September 2014, to RSD 2,664.9bn (EUR 22.2bn) at the end of October 2014. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology) ratio was at the level of 68.1% at the end of October 2014. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is 41.8%, USD 30.7%, RSD 22.0%, SDR 4.3%, CHF 0.7% and other 0.5% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). Up to the end of October 2014, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 433.3bn (EUR 3.6bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 338.2bn (EUR 2.8bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 95.1bn (EUR 0.8bn). Vast majority of items repaid up to date belong to government securities issued on domestic market RSD 282.0bn (EUR 2.3bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 233.7bn (EUR 1.9bn) and interest payments were RSD 48.3bn (EUR 0.4mln). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 67.1bn (EUR 556.7mln), out of which principal RSD 29.0 bn (EUR 240.3mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 38.6bn (EUR 320.0mln) out of which principal RSD 31.5bn (EUR 261.3mln), while interest were RSD 67.1bn (EUR 58.7mln). In the period January October 2014, PDA received RSD 413.7bn (EUR 3.5bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic currency amounted to RSD 312.4bn (EUR 2.6bn) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 101.3bn (EUR 851.1mln). Total receiving at the end of October 2014, amounted to RSD 509.8bn (EUR 4.3bn). At the auction of 10-year EUR denominated Government Bonds of the Republic of Serbia (reopening from 9 April 2014), issued on 19 of Novembar 2014, the volume of Government bonds issued amounted to EUR 25,962,000. The total volume of offers amounted to EUR 33,340,000, i.e. 128.42% of the issued volume. Government Bonds were sold at YTM of 5.50%. The maturity date of the said bonds will be 11 of April 2024. The coupon (5.00% annualy) payment date is 11 of April. The payments are on annual basis until maturity date 11 of April 2024. Economy A reorganization plan for state power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), which the Mining and Energy Ministry has sent to the government for adoption, envisages carrying out the company’s corporatization before turning it into a joint-stock company, “in which the state will always be a majority shareholder,” Minister Aleksandar Antic said. EPS should become a joint-stock company in September 2016, according to the Minister. The plan calls for organizing EPS as a group with three clearly defined lines of business production, supply, and distribution a structure that would replace the current 13 subsidiaries. The process will also result in clear data on EPS’ property and its value. On November 6 th , Serbian and French officials and companies signed six documents, including a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the construction of Belgrade’s metro, following a Serbian-French business forum, held as part of French Prime Minister Manuel Valls’ two-day visit to Belgrade. The documents include an MoU between airport operator Vinci Airports, part of French concessions and construction firm Vinci, and Belgrade’s international airport operator, Aerodrom Nikola Tesla, on the develop ment of international airports in Serbia, and a letter of intent between Serbian state power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS) and energy solutions company Schneider Electric in Serbia. The documents include a bilateral social security agreement, transportation and infrastructure agreement, and an agreement on technical cooperation in the field of public-private partnerships (PPPs). On November 4 th , the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Serbia hosted Economy Minister Zeljko Sertic, who presented the ministry’s measures for galvanizing the economy, including through removing obstacles to doing business, boosting business liquidity, providing incentives to investments, and the government’s efforts to draw foreign direct investments. Minister Sertic said that an attractive business environment requires aligning legislation and accompanying regulations and removing bottlenecks, simplifying procedures, and creating a predictable and fair business environment. Foreign Direct Investments KWS Srbija, a Serbian subsidiary of the German-based plant breeding company KWS, officially opened a seed processing factory in Becej on November 28 th , in a EUR 30 million investment. Delhaize Serbia unveils EUR 50 million distribution center in Stara Pazova, as Delhaize Group CEO says “billions of dinars” to be invested in modernization of retail network in Serbia in coming years.

November 2014 Monthly Update - javnidug.gov.rs update for investors/2014/Republic... · November 2014 Monthly Update ... the state will always be a majority shareholder,” Minister

  • Upload
    vantruc

  • View
    215

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

November 2014

Monthly Update

Politics The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has reached staff-level agreement with the Serbian authorities, subject to approval by

the IMF’s management and executive boards, on an economic program that could be supported by a 36-month precautionary stand-by

arrangement, the IMF said in a press release. The proposed access could total around EUR 1 billion, or 200% of quota. The

International Monetary Fund (IMF) will send a mission to Serbia in mid-May to review the country’s performance in the first quarter

of 2015 under a three-year precautionary stand-by arrangement subject to approval from the IMF’s management and executive board.

The Budget law for 2015, will be submitted to the Parliament in December.

On November 28th, the government adopted a bill on changes and amendments to the Law on Planning and Construction, seeking to

strengthen legal security and transparency, and simplify procedures.

European commissioner for neighborhood policy and enlargement negotiations Johannes Hahn said that he is certain that Serbia will

open a chapter of EU accession talks in the coming weeks or months, noting that the new approach, applied to Montenegro and Serbia,

is to first open chapters 23 and 24, which deal with the rule of law.

Serbian Prime Minister Mr. Vucic visit to Israel described as historic by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ministers agreed that

there is room for Serbia and Israel to expand their cooperation to industrial production, agriculture, information technologies, and

security issues.

Fiscal Sector The Securities Commission has given its approval for publishing the prospectus for Serbia’s first public offering of a municipal bond,

to be issued by the City of Sabac, Securities Commission Chairman Zoran Cirovic said on November 26th, noting that this will also be

the first municipal bond to be listed on the Belgrade Stock Exchange (BSE).

In October 2014, public debt of the Republic of Serbia increased from RSD 2,628.3bn (EUR 22.1bn) at the end of September 2014, to

RSD 2,664.9bn (EUR 22.2bn) at the end of October 2014. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology) ratio

was at the level of 68.1% at the end of October 2014. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is

41.8%, USD 30.7%, RSD 22.0%, SDR 4.3%, CHF 0.7% and other 0.5% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). Up to the end of October

2014, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 433.3bn (EUR

3.6bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 338.2bn (EUR 2.8bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 95.1bn

(EUR 0.8bn). Vast majority of items repaid up to date belong to government securities issued on domestic market RSD 282.0bn (EUR

2.3bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 233.7bn (EUR 1.9bn) and interest payments were RSD 48.3bn (EUR 0.4mln).

Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 67.1bn (EUR 556.7mln), out of which principal RSD 29.0

bn (EUR 240.3mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 38.6bn (EUR 320.0mln) out of which

principal RSD 31.5bn (EUR 261.3mln), while interest were RSD 67.1bn (EUR 58.7mln). In the period January – October 2014, PDA

received RSD 413.7bn (EUR 3.5bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic currency amounted

to RSD 312.4bn (EUR 2.6bn) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 101.3bn (EUR 851.1mln).

Total receiving at the end of October 2014, amounted to RSD 509.8bn (EUR 4.3bn).

At the auction of 10-year EUR denominated Government Bonds of the Republic of Serbia (reopening from 9 April 2014), issued on

19 of Novembar 2014, the volume of Government bonds issued amounted to EUR 25,962,000. The total volume of offers amounted to

EUR 33,340,000, i.e. 128.42% of the issued volume. Government Bonds were sold at YTM of 5.50%. The maturity date of the said

bonds will be 11 of April 2024. The coupon (5.00% annualy) payment date is 11 of April. The payments are on annual basis until

maturity date 11 of April 2024.

Economy A reorganization plan for state power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), which the Mining and Energy Ministry has sent to the

government for adoption, envisages carrying out the company’s corporatization before turning it into a joint-stock company, “in which

the state will always be a majority shareholder,” Minister Aleksandar Antic said. EPS should become a joint-stock company in

September 2016, according to the Minister. The plan calls for organizing EPS as a group with three clearly defined lines of business –

production, supply, and distribution – a structure that would replace the current 13 subsidiaries. The process will also result in clear

data on EPS’ property and its value.

On November 6th, Serbian and French officials and companies signed six documents, including a memorandum of understanding

(MoU) on the construction of Belgrade’s metro, following a Serbian-French business forum, held as part of French Prime Minister

Manuel Valls’ two-day visit to Belgrade. The documents include an MoU between airport operator Vinci Airports, part of French

concessions and construction firm Vinci, and Belgrade’s international airport operator, Aerodrom Nikola Tesla, on the development of

international airports in Serbia, and a letter of intent between Serbian state power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS) and energy

solutions company Schneider Electric in Serbia. The documents include a bilateral social security agreement, transportation and

infrastructure agreement, and an agreement on technical cooperation in the field of public-private partnerships (PPPs).

On November 4th, the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Serbia hosted Economy Minister Zeljko Sertic, who presented

the ministry’s measures for galvanizing the economy, including through removing obstacles to doing business, boosting business

liquidity, providing incentives to investments, and the government’s efforts to draw foreign direct investments. Minister Sertic said

that an attractive business environment requires aligning legislation and accompanying regulations and removing bottlenecks,

simplifying procedures, and creating a predictable and fair business environment.

Foreign Direct Investments KWS Srbija, a Serbian subsidiary of the German-based plant breeding company KWS, officially opened a seed processing factory in

Becej on November 28th, in a EUR 30 million investment.

Delhaize Serbia unveils EUR 50 million distribution center in Stara Pazova, as Delhaize Group CEO says “billions of dinars” to be

invested in modernization of retail network in Serbia in coming years.

November 2014

Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia; National Bank of Serbia; Bloomberg; Ministry of Finance and Economy * Estimated value; **According to NBS methodology Foreign Debt consist of Public and Private sector debt; *** According to methodological concept of IMF and EU “BPM6” applicable from April

2014; Ɨ General Government;

Macroeconomic Data Real GDP growth %

Industrial

production

Oct14/ Oct13

in %

CPI Current acc.

Balance***

Government bonds on international

market YTM as of 30th November

Currency

units/USD

Currency

units/EUR

2012 2013 2014* Oct'14 Sep'14

Ann. %

Sep

last12 months

mlnEUR

% of GDP

Serbia 2017

Serbia 2018

Serbia 2020

Serbia 2021

30 Nov 2014

30 Nov 2013

30 Nov 2014

30 Nov 2013

-1.0 2.6 -2.0 -11.2% -0.2 1.8 -2,010.4 -6.1 3.642% 4.105% 4.318% 4.670% 96.8325 83.7329 120.5468 114.0442

* Estimated value

• CPI COICOP is defined as a measure of average change of retail prices of goods and services used for personal consumption. Prices

of these products and services in October 2014 in relation to September 2014 decreased by 0.2%, on average. Consumer prices in

October 2014, compared with October 2013, increased by 1.8%, and in relation to December 2013, increase amounted to 2.2%.

Observed by main groups according to destination of consumption in October 2014 in relation to the previous month, the greatest

decrease of prices was noted in the following groups: Food and non-alcoholic beverages (-1.4%), Furnishings, household equipment

and routine household maintenance and Communication (by -0.4%, each) and Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-0.1%). The increase

of prices was noted in the groups Recreation and culture (2.5%), Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (1.0%), Education

(0.8%), Health (0.6%), Restaurants and hotels (0.5%), Clothing and footwear (0.4%) and Transport (0.1%). Prices of other products and

services mostly remained unchanged.

• The overall external trade in the Republic of Serbia for January – October 2014 amounted to:

- USD 29,796.8 million - which was a 3.6% increase compared to the same period 2013;

- EUR 22,103.2 million - which was an increase of 1.6% compared to the same period 2013.

The value of exports amounted to USD 12,503.6 million, which was 4.0% increase when compared to the same period last year, while

the value of imports amounted to USD 17,293.2 million, which was 3.3% increase relative to the same period last year. Expressed in

Euros, the value of exports amounted to EUR 9,275.0 million, which was the increase of 2.0%, compared to the same period last year.

The value of imports amounted to EUR 12,828.2 million, which was 1.3% increase when compared to the same period last year. The

deficit amounted to USD 4,789.6 million, which was an increase of 1.7% in relation to the same period last year. The deficit expressed in

Euros amounted to 3,553.2 million, which was a decrease of 0.4% compared to the same period last year. The export - import ratio

equaled 72.3% and was higher if compared to the same period last year when it was 71.9%. Expressed in Euros, the value of exports

amounted to EUR 980.7 million, which was a decrease of 6.6%, compared to the same month last year. The value of imports amounted

to EUR 1,386.5 million, which was 2.3% decrease when compared to the same month last year.

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

2.6%

2.2%

5.0%

20.1%

81.4%

Real GDP growth (%)

Inflation rate Ann. (%)

Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Oct 2013

**Foreign Debt (% GDP)

2013

-2.0%

1.8%

4.5%

20.8%

79.5%

*GDP growth for 2014 (%)

Inflation rate Ann. Oct (%)

*Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate April 2014

**Foreign Debt as of Sep 2014 (% GDP)

2014

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

% Belgrade OverNight Index Average

250.0

450.0

650.0

850.0

1,050.0

1,250.0

1,450.0

1,650.0Belgrade Stock Exchange Indices

Belex 15 index Belex line index

November 2014

Currency, Interest Rates and FDI

Key Policy Rates of National Bank of Serbia Current value Last change Date of last meeting Next board meeting

Key policy rate - 2w repo 8.00%

-0.50% 13.11.2014 11.12.2014 Deposit facility interest rate 5.50%

Lending facility interest rate 10.50%

Source: National bank of Serbia

Source: National bank of Serbia

• NBS FX reserves amounted to EUR 10,714.6 million at end-October, covering M1 by 313 percent and more than seven months of

imports of goods and services. Major inflow to FX reserves came from the sale of euro-denominated government securities in the

domestic financial market (EUR 45.3 million). Larger outflows were registered on account of settlement of liabilities to foreign

creditors (EUR 96.1 million), banks’ withdrawal of higher allocations under FX reserve requirements (EUR 39.6 million, net) and

repayment of debt to the IMF (EUR 30.4 million). Net FX reserves, defined as FX reserves less banks’ required reserves and drawings

from the IMF, came at EUR 7,865.0 million. Trading volume in the IFEM reached EUR 544.4 million, down by EUR 50.6 million from

the month before. In the year to October, IFEM trading volume totalled EUR 4,679.6 million. The dinar depreciated against the euro by

0.2% nominally, while the NBS intervened in the IFEM by selling EUR 140 million in order to ease excessive short-term volatility of

the exchange rate.

• The industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in October 2014, when compared to October 2013, decreased by 11.2% and in

relation to 2013 average, it increased by 2.7%. Industrial production in the period January – October 2014, compared with the same

period 2013, decreased by 6.3%.

Foreign Direct Investments in Serbia in period 2008 – September 2014

Source: National bank of Serbia; *FDI value has been presented in compliance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International

Investment Position Manual, International Monetary Fund, 2009 (BPM6) from the end of 2013.

56789

1011121314

% National Bank of Serbia Interest Rates

Key policy rate - 2w repo Deposit facility interest rate

Lending facility interest rate

80859095

100105110115120125

In RSD Exchange Rates

EUR/RSD USD/RSD

1,824 1,373 860 1,827 242

1,229 1,047

5.6%

4.7%

3.1%

5.0%

0.8%

3.6% 3.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* September

2014*FDI (net), EUR million FDI (net), %GDP

November 2014

Public Debt Report

Public Debt Stock and Structure as of 31th

October 2014: EUR USD RSD GDP%

Direct Liabilities (A)

Internal Debt 8,071,405,192 10,143,335,947 961,213,958,653 24.4%

External Debt 11,593,837,280 14,569,976,806 1,380,696,169,088 35.1%

Direct Liabilities in Total 19,665,242,472 24,713,312,753 2,341,910,127,741 59.5%

Indirect Liabilities (B)

Internal Debt 689,458,046 866,442,016 82,106,731,361 2.1%

External Debt 1,855,020,498 2,331,204,500 220,912,165,141 5.6%

Indirect Liabilities in Total 2,544,478,545 3,197,646,515 303,018,896,502 7.7%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt (C)

Internal Debt 323,561,096 406,619,271 38,532,502,653 1.0%

External Debt 123,253,863 154,893,146 14,678,154,691 0.4%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt in Total 446,814,959 561,512,417 53,210,657,344 1.4%

Central Government Public Debt (A+B) 22,209,721,017 27,910,959,268 2,644,929,024,243 67.2%

General Government Public Debt (A+B+C) 22,656,535,976 28,472,471,686 2,698,139,681,587 68.6%

Date Internal Debt External Debt Monthly Change of

Public Debt Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities

30/11/2013 154.6 0.0 49.8 2.5 206.8

31/12/2013 8.5 5.3 639.0 -19.1 633.6

31/01/2014 33.9 -18.5 129.0 -6.1 138.2

28/02/2014 203.4 -18.4 -62.0 -4.5 118.6

31/03/2014 156.4 5.6 -55.1 2.1 108.9

30/04/2014 128.3 -22.6 -18.6 1.3 88.4

31/05/2014 18.9 -54.2 102.5 -12.3 54.9

30/06/2014 69.4 -18.5 -14.7 -26.3 9.9

30/07/2014 149.0 3.0 139.3 -11.8 279.5

31/08/2014 111.3 2.1 841.4 -10.8 944.0

30/09/2014 35.5 -14.0 223.1 -14.0 230.5

31/10/2014 110.8 -32.2 64.2 -47.3 95.5

In EUR million

Source: Public Debt Administration

18,600

18,900

19,200

19,500

19,800

20,100

20,400

20,700

21,000

21,300

21,600

21,900

22,200

22,500

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000

13,500

15,000

16,500

18,000

19,500

21,000

22,500

In m

illi

on

EU

R

In m

illi

on

EU

R

External debt - indirect liabilities External debt - direct liabilities

Internal debt - indirect liabilities Internal debt - direct liabilities

DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC DEBT

November 2014

INTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS EXTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS

Source: Public Debt Administration

Source: Public Debt Administration

Source: Public Debt Administration

39.5%

37.5%

38.0%

38.5%

39.0%

39.5%

40.0%

40.5%

41.0%

Internal Public Debt/Total Public Debt Ratio

60.5%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

External Public Debt/Total Public Debt Ratio

8,071

689

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

In m

illi

on

EU

R

Internal Public Debt Dynamics

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

11,594

1,855

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

In m

illi

on

EU

R

External Public Debt Dynamics

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

55.7%

44.0%

0.3%

Internal Debt Currency Structure

RSD EUR USD

40.3%

50.6%

1.2% 7.0% 0.8%

Extrenal debt Currency Structure

EUR USD CHF SDR Other

November 2014

Government Securities DOMESTIC MARKET OVERVIEW

Source: Public Debt Administration

EUROBOND OVERVIEW

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Source: Bloomberg

6.70% 7.24%

8.20%

9.00%

10.00% 10.80%

11.79%

6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%

10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%12.5%

3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y

Last Primary Auctions Accepted Rates

6.91%

7.60%

8.97%

10.22%

12.18% 12.19%

12.08%

6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%

10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%12.5%13.0%

3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y

Average Accepted Rates at Primary Auctions

4.304.604.905.205.505.806.106.406.707.007.307.607.90

96 $98 $

100 $102 $104 $106 $108 $110 $112 $114 $116 $118 $120 $

In p

erce

nta

ge

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2021

Closing price YTM

170 bps

200 bps

230 bps

260 bps

290 bps

320 bps

350 bps

380 bps

410 bps

440 bps

470 bps

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

In p

erce

nta

ge

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 7Y

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Tap

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 28.09.2021

Coupon: 7.25% semi-annual

*Size: USD 2.0bn

**Re-offer yield: 6.625%

Re-offer price: 104.179

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 497.0 bps

Announcement date: 27.09.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

*Primary auction USD 1,0bn 21.09.2011.; Tap Issuance 27.09.2012.

USD 1,0bn. **Tap Issuance re-offer yield.

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Price/Yield

Date Closing Price YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

30/11/14 114.92 4.670 0.1% -0.8%

31/10/14 114.82 4.708 2.3% -8.6%

30/09/14 112.19 5.149 -2.6% 9.5%

31/08/14 115.17 4.702 0.8% -3.5%

31/07/14 114.20 4.873 -0.3% 0.6%

30/06/14 114.54 4.843 -1.7% 5.9%

31/05/14 116.48 4.573 4.3% -14.0%

30/04/14 111.68 5.319 -0.7% 2.1%

31/03/14 112.51 5.211 0.5% -1.8%

28/02/14 111.97 5.308 6.1% -16.1%

31/01/14 105.51 6.328 -0.3% 0.7%

31/12/13 105.82 6.285 0.8% -2.3%

November 2014

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 21.11.2017

Coupon: 5.250% semi-annual

Size: USD 750.0mln

Re-offer yield: 5.450%

Re-offer price: 99.135

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 482.5 bps

Announcement date: 14.11.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Source: Bloomberg

3.20

3.50

3.80

4.10

4.40

4.70

5.00

5.30

5.60

5.90

6.20

6.50

95.0 $

96.0 $

97.0 $

98.0 $

99.0 $

100.0 $

101.0 $

102.0 $

103.0 $

104.0 $

105.0 $

106.0 $

107.0 $

108.0 $

In p

erce

nta

ge

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2017

Closing price YTM

230 bps

250 bps

270 bps

290 bps

310 bps

330 bps

350 bps

370 bps

390 bps

410 bps

430 bps

450 bps

470 bps

490 bps

510 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

In p

erce

nta

ge

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 3Y

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017 - Price/Yield

Date Closing Price YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

30/11/14 104.49 3.642 0.6% -6.8%

31/10/14 103.82 3.906 0.9% -7.8%

30/09/14 102.94 4.235 -1.3% 10.9%

31/08/14 104.29 3.818 -0.2% 0.7%

31/07/14 104.48 3.790 -0.2% 0.5%

30/06/14 104.65 3.772 -0.7% 5.7%

31/05/14 105.43 3.569 1.9% -14.6%

30/04/14 103.49 4.179 -0.4% 2.4%

31/03/14 103.90 4.083 -0.6% 4.1%

28/02/14 104.54 3.923 3.0% -18.4%

31/01/14 101.51 4.808 0.7% -4.0%

31/12/13 100.84 5.008 0.7% -3.8%

November 2014

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 25.02.2020

Coupon: 4.875% semi-annual

Size: USD 1.5bn

Re-offer yield: 5.150%

Re-offer price: 98.401

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 378.4 bps

Announcement date: 14.02.2013

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020 - Price/Yield

Date Closing Price YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

30/11/14 102.58 4.318 0.7% -3.3%

31/10/14 101.91 4.467 2.0% -8.6%

30/09/14 99.94 4.887 -2.0% 9.5%

31/08/14 101.99 4.461 0.4% -1.7%

31/07/14 101.63 4.540 0.0% 0.1%

30/06/14 101.67 4.535 -1.3% 6.3%

31/05/14 103.05 4.267 3.5% -13.9%

30/04/14 99.58 4.958 -0.6% 2.5%

31/03/14 100.18 4.839 0.2% -0.8%

28/02/14 99.99 4.877 4.8% -15.6%

31/01/14 95.42 5.781 0.3% -0.7%

31/12/13 95.17 5.821 1.3% -3.8%

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Source: Bloomberg

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

89.0 $

91.0 $

93.0 $

95.0 $

97.0 $

99.0 $

101.0 $

103.0 $

105.0 $

107.0 $

In p

erce

nta

ge

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2020

Closing price YTM

210 bps

240 bps

270 bps

300 bps

330 bps

360 bps

390 bps

420 bps

450 bps

480 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

In p

erce

nta

ge

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 6Y

November 2014

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018 - Price/Yield

Date Closing Price YTM Monthly price change %

Monthly yield change %

30/11/14 106.47 4.105 0.1% -1.3%

31/10/14 106.37 4.160 1.7% -10.5%

30/09/14 104.59 4.649 -1.7% 10.6%

31/08/14 106.43 4.205 -0.2% 0.7%

31/07/14 106.66 4.176 -0.1% 0.1%

30/06/14 106.80 4.173 -1.1% 6.5%

31/05/14 108.00 3.917 2.4% -13.8%

30/04/14 105.43 4.546 -0.6% 2.8%

31/03/14 106.06 4.422 0.2% -1.3%

28/02/14 105.89 4.480 3.7% -16.4%

31/01/14 102.16 5.360 0.4% -1.9%

31/12/13 101.74 5.465 0.6% -2.6%

Spread to Benchmark Spread to US Dollar Swap Interest rate

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

96.0 $

98.0 $

100.0 $

102.0 $

104.0 $

106.0 $

108.0 $

110.0 $

In p

erce

nta

ge

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2018

Closing price YTM

190 bps

210 bps

230 bps

250 bps

270 bps

290 bps

310 bps

330 bps

350 bps

370 bps

390 bps

410 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

In p

erce

nta

ge

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 5Y

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch); B1(Moody’s)

Maturity: 03.12.2018

Coupon: 5.875 % semi-annual

Size: USD 1.0bn

Re-offer yield: 6.125%

Re-offer price: 98.937

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 476.5 bps

Announcement date: 21.11.2013

Listing: London Stock Exchange

November 2014

Amortizing bond - London Club 2024

Auction Date Maturity Date Par Value Market value Coupon %

01/10/2004 01/11/2024 1,080,000,000 972,000,190 6.75%

Price/Yield

Date Closing Price YTM Monthly price change % Monthly yield change %

30/11/14 101.69 6.515 0.0% -0.1%

31/10/14 101.68 6.519 0.5% -1.1%

30/09/14 101.13 6.594 -0.2% 0.5%

31/08/14 101.3 6.56 -0.1% 0.3%

31/07/14 101.51 6.544 -0.1% 0.2%

30/06/14 101.60 6.533 -0.2% 0.3%

31/05/14 101.78 6.511 0.2% -0.4%

30/04/14 101.59 6.538 0.8% -1.6%

31/03/14 100.77 6.646 -0.4% 0.9%

28/02/14 101.21 6.589 1.3% -2.6%

31/01/14 99.88 6.765 1.1% -2.0%

31/12/13 98.83 6.904 0.2% -0.3%

AMORTIZING BOND – LONDON CLUB 2024 OVERVIEW

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Source: Bloomberg

6.30

6.40

6.50

6.60

6.70

6.80

6.90

7.00

7.10

7.20

7.30

7.40

7.50

7.60

7.70

7.80

7.90

8.00

94.0 $

95.0 $

96.0 $

97.0 $

98.0 $

99.0 $

100.0 $

101.0 $

102.0 $

103.0 $

In p

erce

nta

ge

Price/YTM Graph Amortizing Bond - Serbia London Club 2024

Closing price YTM

425 bps

450 bps

475 bps

500 bps

525 bps

550 bps

575 bps

600 bps

625 bps

650 bps

675 bps

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

In p

erce

nta

ge

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 10Y