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Information | Analytics | Expertise
© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
MEXICO AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Mexico, D.F.
NOVEMBER, 2014
Guido Vildozo, Manager Latin America Light Vehicle Sales
Forecasts, IHS
© 2014 IHS
Agenda
• Global Outlook
• Global Cadence
• US Sales
• Mexico Sales
• NAFTA Production
• Mexico Production
• Key Takeaways
2
© 2014 IHS 3
… World Sales on a roll … But the strong climb has “tapered off” in recent months
© 2014 IHS
Source: IHS
Auto Demand Trends- Wobbles or bigger worries/ July 2014
World auto sales on a roll Lig
ht vehic
le s
ale
s
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jun-2
005
Sep-2
005
De
c-2
005
Ma
r-2
006
Jun-2
006
Sep-2
006
De
c-2
006
Ma
r-2
007
Jun-2
007
Sep-2
007
De
c-2
007
Ma
r-2
008
Jun-2
008
Sep-2
008
De
c-2
008
Ma
r-2
009
Jun-2
009
Sep-2
009
De
c-2
009
Ma
r-2
010
Jun-2
010
Sep-2
010
De
c-2
010
Ma
r-2
011
Jun-2
011
Sep-2
011
De
c-2
011
Ma
r-2
012
Jun-2
012
Sep-2
012
De
c-2
012
Ma
r-2
013
Jun-2
013
Sep-2
013
De
c-2
013
Ma
r-2
014
Jun-2
014
Millio
ns
World
SAAR
and
Trend
World
Without
China,
SAAR
and
Trend
July 14
© 2014 IHS
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8Jan'0
7
Jan'0
8
Jan'0
9
Jan'1
0
Ja
n'1
1
Jan'1
2
Jan'1
3
Jan'1
4
ASEAN C Europe E Europe Gr China
India Japan Korea Mid-East/Africa N America
S America W Europe
Se
aso
na
lly A
dju
ste
d S
elli
ng
Ra
tes
Ind
exe
d 2
00
7=
1
Source: IHS Analysis, X12 Seasonal Adjustment
2007
Sales Level
Lehman
Collapse
GC
SA
IN
AS
NA
WE
CE
JK MEA
Region light vehicle selling rates China remains on different path than other developing markets
EE
4
© 2014 IHS
Global light vehicle sales outlook
2013-14 sales volume
83.3
85.7
+ 1.9
+ 1.0
+ 0.6
+ 0.4
+ 0.2 - 0.2
- 0.6
- 0.7
83.2
83.7
84.2
84.7
85.2
85.7
86.2
86.7
87.2
2013 Greater China North America West Europe MiddleEast/Africa
Japan/Korea South Asia Central/EastEurope
South America 2014
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
+3%
5
© 2014 IHS
World light vehicle sales forecast Outlook optimistic due to US/Euro recovery and continued China growth
Source: IHS Automotive Sales Forecasts
85.7
88.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total sales 2006-13:
577 million vehicles
Total sales 2014-21:
767 million vehicles
An
nu
al sa
les, in
mill
ion
s
6
© 2014 IHS
Light vehicle sales forecast Importance of emerging markets will continue to grow
0
10
20
30
40
50
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Mature Markets
China
Others
Source: IHS Automotive, Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ, W Europe
Change 2001-21:
MM down 5%
China up 1,400%
Others up 200%
7
© 2014 IHS
Average Cycle Time by Region
8
Region 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Europe 7.0 7.1 6.0 6.3 6.0
Greater China 8.7 7.7 5.8 7.8 7.1
Japan/Korea 3.8 6.0 5.1 7.1 5.2
North America 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.5 4.9
South America 11.3 3.1 8.4 6.9 5.5
• Integration of global platforms into NA, China and South America increases ‘cycle velocity’
• Global cycle timing is declining towards sub 6 years as all regions move lockstep with global platform
timing
• Impact of delayed timing for several European mass market offerings reflective of extended timing.
For China, growth of domestic players with longer cadence underscore the shift.
© 2014 IHS
6.8 6.1
5.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Weig
hte
d C
ad
en
ce (
Years
) Program Cadence
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mu
lti R
egio
n S
har
e
Multi-Region Platforms
After 2015, multi-
region (global)
platforms approach
70% of volume
90
73
110 106 115 113
128 125
161
140
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Lau
nch
Ev
en
t C
ou
nt
Global Launch Events
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
2010
2015
2020
Average Platform Volume (Over 50K/Year)
Faster, Greater Scale & Integrated Industry Pace and Risk Rises …
© 2014 IHS 9
© 2014 IHS 10
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Oil- WTI - ($-per barrel) - L Brent - L Retail Gasoline Price - R
Oil Prices/Gasoline
© 2014 IHS 11
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6 Month Moving Average Actual
(Percent Yes)
Conference Board
Not just a needs based recovery, but wants driven
Intention to buy in the next six months
© 2014 IHS 12
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Direct (Bank) Loans Indirect (Dealer) Loans
(% - Accounts past due 30 days or more)
Months
Source: American Bankers Association
Auto Loans — Delinquency Rates
The first uptick in dealer delinquency rates in a year
© 2014 IHS 13
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Near 620 - 679 Sub 619Source: CNW Marketing Months
New Vehicle Sales – By Credit Score
Subprime credit has started to become available
© 2014 IHS 14
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Unweighted Average of Prime, Near and Subprime
Months
New Auto Loan Application Approvals
Source: CNW Marketing
Growth in jobs will return loan approvals back into the seventies
© 2014 IHS
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Percent)
CNW Marketing Months
Incentives to MSRP
Incentives activity is still under control
© 2014 IHS 16
U.S. New Light Vehicle Inventory
— Days Supply
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(Days Supply)
Months — Seasonally Adjusted
Light Trucks
Cars
Incentives will get rid of unwanted inventory, not production cuts
© 2014 IHS 17
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
ACTUAL
(Units in Millions)
August’s SAAR was the best single month selling rate since January 2006
US New Light Vehicle SAAR
© 2014 IHS 18
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Current Forecast July 2011 Forecast Jan-13
(Units in millions)
The forecast is roughly 300k to 600k per year higher than a few months ago
US Light Vehicle Sales
© 2014 IHS 19
70
80
90
100
110
120
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence
Million Units Index
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
SAAR vs. Consumer Confidence
© 2014 IHS 20
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millio
ns
LV Sales (left scale)
Million Units
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
SAAR
© 2014 IHS 21
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
2014/15 Outlook (Dec ‘13 forecast)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CY
FCST
87,450
81,293
88,267
82,007
89,250
88,750
88,750
91,332
90,510
94,561
103,423
125,305
1,110,898
ACT
85,504
79,938
85,682
76,907
88,244
84,127
96,050
103,881
89,116
moe -2.2% -1.7% -2.9% -6.2% -1.1% -5.2% 8.2% 13.7% -1.5%
EST
14*
92,061
101,823
124,705
1,108,038
EST
15*
93,102
85,930
91,808
79,869
91,006
91,079
91,902
94,133
92,853
95,851
105,251
127,253
1,140,037
YOY 8.9% 7.5% 7.1% 3.9% 3.1% 8.3% -4.3% -9.4% 4.2% 4.1% 3.4% 2.0% 2.6%
Deceleration to be expected and getting there will not be that easy
© 2014 IHS
22
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Light Veh -L Annual Change -R
Units
Forecast calls for increased competition and more credit
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
More manufacturing bring us to new highs?
© 2014 IHS 23
Presentation Name / Month 2014
NAFTA Used cars 24. Mexico may adopt or maintain prohibitions or restrictions on imports of used vehicles from the
territory of another Party, except as follows:
(a) beginning January 1, 2009, Mexico may not adopt or maintain a prohibition or restriction on imports
from the territories of Canada or the United States of originating used vehicles that are at least 10
years old;
(b) beginning January 1, 2011, Mexico may not adopt or maintain a prohibition or restriction on imports
from the territories of Canada or the United States of originating used vehicles that are at least eight
years old;
(c) beginning January 1, 2013, Mexico may not adopt or maintain a prohibition or restriction on imports
from the territories of Canada or the United States of originating used vehicles that are at least six
years old;
(d) beginning January 1, 2015, Mexico may not adopt or maintain a prohibition or restriction on imports
from the territories of Canada or the United States of originating used vehicles that are at least four
years old;
(e) beginning January 1, 2017, Mexico may not adopt or maintain a prohibition or restriction on imports
from the territories of Canada or the United States of originating used vehicles that are at least two
years old; and
(f) beginning January 1, 2019, Mexico may not adopt or maintain a prohibition or restriction on imports
from the territories of Canada or the United States of originating used vehicles.
© 2014 IHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Others Mitsubishi Daimler Suzuki BMW
Mazda Toyota Honda Fiat Ford
Volkswagen General Motors Renault/Nissan
Percentage
Nissan, GM and VW will
face competition
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Market Share
© 2014 IHS
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Millio
ns
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Units
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Bodytype
© 2014 IHS 26
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Infiniti Renault Nissan YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Renault-Nissan Alliance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HVAN E D C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 27
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Buick Cadillac GMC Chevrolet YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
General Motors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 28
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Porsche Audi SEAT Volkswagen YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Volkswagen Group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
F E D C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 29
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Chrysler Fiat RamJeep Dodge YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 30
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Mercury Lincoln Ford YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Ford Motor Company
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 31
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Toyota YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Toyota Motor Corporation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 32
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Acura Honda YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Honda Motor Company
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 33
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Mazda YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Mazda Motor Corporation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
D C B A
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 34
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Kia Hyundai YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Hyundai Motor Company
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 35
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Mini BMW YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E D C B A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS 36
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Th
ou
san
ds
Smart Mercedes-Benz YOY
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales
Daimler AG
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
F E D C B A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2014 IHS
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Mill
ions
Sales Production
Post
Restructuring
Lo
ca
liza
tio
n
Expansio
n
Exp
ort
s
• From 2001- 2009, regional sales eclipse output by 27% or 3.7 million units
• 2017 – 2021, future sales levels outpace production by less than 7.0% or by ~1 million units
• Positive sales trajectory tapers after peak in 2017
• Long-term output nears 18.5M units – far surpasses 16.0M unit pre-2009 levels
N. America - LV Sales and Production
© 2014 IHS 37
© 2014 IHS
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Y-O-Y %
Ch
angeO
utp
ut (M
illio
ns)
United States Mexico Canada Change
CAGR
1.2%
CAGR
7.1%
CAGR
-4.3%
2014 – 2020
38
North American Market Structure
© 2014 IHS 39
OEM 2013
(000s)
2014F
(000s) % ∆
∆ Units
(000s)
GM 3,287 3,375 2.7% 89
Ford 3,080 3,020 -1.9% -60
Chry/Fiat 2,509 2,749 9.5% 240
Detroit 3 8,876 9,144 3.0% 269
Toyota 1,863 1,960 5.2% 97
Honda 1,782 1,828 2.6% 47
Ren/Nissan 1,470 1,718 16.9% 248
Hyundai 769 767 -0.3% -2
Asian 4 5,884 6,273 6.6% 389
VW 654 626 -4.2% -28
BMW 297 349 17.3% 51
Daimler 206 248 20.1% 41
German 3 1,157 1,222 5.6% 65
Others 260 379 45.9% 119
Total 16.2M 17.0M 5.2% ~842
• Healthy production
growth rate as recovery
progresses
• Ford – Down time for F-
150 and 2015 programs
and less exports (MEX)
• Chrysler – Fiat-based
product ramps-up
• Nissan – Migration of
CUV production; Mexico
expansion
• Honda and Mazda start
new operations in
Mexico!
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production
2013 vs 2014
© 2014 IHS
4.94.2
1.93.1
3.43.43.2 3.3
4.4
2.9
1.9
2.73.1 3.2
2.83.2
2.9
2.5
0.9
2.0
2.4 2.4
2.42.4
2.4
4.6
3.2
4.1
6.4
7.2
5.5
7.4
0.50.8
0.5
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.9
-1
2
5
8
11
14
17
20
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
Mill
ions
40
• Production outlook follows demand recovery with import substitution and export activity
providing additional support
• Most manufacturers are poised to post gains; favors OEMs with further capacity
expansion plans: BMW, VW, Nissan, Toyota & Honda
• Global product/platform strategies enable competitive sourcing shifts
15.1
German 3
Asian 4
Chrysler/
Fiat
Ford
General
Motors
Others
8.6
13.1
17.4
15.4
17.2
5.6
4.7
2.9
2.9
0.6
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production
Growth Prospects
© 2014 IHS 41
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Europe
South America
Middle East/Africa
Greater China
Other
No
rth
Am
erica
n V
eh
icle
Exp
ort
s (
Mill
ion
s)
North American Vehicle Exports by Region
0.77 0.71
0.90
1.09
0.89
1.30 1.29 1.35
1.58
1.73
• Greater use of global
platforms allows for more
“export ready” product
• 40+ Free trade agreements
drive Mexican output
• Expansion of luxury
segment capability across
the region into Mexico
• EU sovereign debt crisis
tempers EU exports, yet
BRIC demand grows
• Sourcing patterns favor NA
expansion as a safe haven;
with currency hedge &
export prospects
1.83
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production
Exports bolster prospects
30
43
24 23
20
17 18
25
16
34
21
29
34
37
32
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
North American Program Launches
42 Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast
Market Dynamics
Launch Activity Surges, Investment & Competition Too
© 2014 IHS
© 2014 IHS
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
PROD
(Millions of units)
Forecast at risk due to Brazil
Mexico Light Vehicle Production
More growth to come
© 2014 IHS 44
Presentation Name / Month 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL VOLUME 2,258,727 2,547,270 2,865,872 2,926,860 3,243,398 3,360,884 3,562,545 4,225,453 4,492,197 4,802,667 4,930,505
PLATFORMS BEING PRODUCED 19 19 19 19 22 21 28 27 31 30 29
NUMBER OF LAUNCHES 0 1 2 2 4 0 7 1 7 2 1
VOLUME/PLATFORM 118,880 134,067 150,835 154,045 147,427 160,042 127,234 156,498 144,910 160,089 170,017
© 2014 IHS 45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Europe South AmericaMiddle East/Africa AsiaNorth America
No
rth
Am
erica
n V
eh
icle
Exp
ort
s (
Mill
ion
s)
Mexico Vehicle Exports by Region
1.64 1.37
1.76
1.98
1.71
2.14
2.32 2.37
2.64
2.94
• Greater use of global
platforms allows for more
“export ready” product
• 40+ Free trade agreements
drive Mexican output
• Expansion of luxury
segment capability across
the region into Mexico
• SA exports hurt by Brazil
and Argentina
• Sourcing patterns favor NA
expansion as a safe haven;
with currency hedge &
export prospects
3.25
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production
Exports bolster prospects
© 2014 IHS
Global Top 10 Production Countries
2010 2014 2015 2020
1 China China China China
2 Japan United States United States United States
3 United States Japan Japan Japan
4 Germany Germany Germany India
5 South Korea South Korea India Germany
6 India India South Korea Mexico
7 Brazil Mexico Mexico Brazil
8 Spain Brazil Brazil South Korea
9 Mexico Thailand Spain Thailand
10 France Canada Thailand Spain
46
• Mexico is definitely on the industry’s radar
• Will continue to ascend among Top 10 in the 2015-2020 time period
• Could build more than Brazil!
© 2014 IHS
Agenda
• Global Outlook
• NAFTA Sales
• NAFTA Production
• Mexico Production
• Key Takeaways
47
© 2014 IHS 48
• Global growth is driven by TRIAD as opposed to emerging nations in 2014
• US has another solid year, we are now back to business as usual
• July/August Mexico sales could herald potential of the market
• Used car imports should hold momentum
• SUVs will diversify, here comes the wave of B-SUVs
• Luxury Segment is key
• NAFTA production sees more investment, particularly due to localization
• Mexican production is at 3 million unit mark quickly ascending to 5 million units!
• Continues to rely heavily on the US
Key Takeaways
Guido Vildozo
Manager, Latin America Vehicle Sales
Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!
© 2014 IHS
For more information,
please contact
IHS Customer Care
800 447 2273 (IHS CARE)
+44 (0) 1344 328 300
50
