53
November 2002 Investor Roadshow David Murray Chief Executive Officer Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer www.commbank.com.au

November 2002 Investor Roadshow - CommBank 2002 Investor Roadshow David Murray Chief Executive Officer Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer 2 The material that follows is a presentation

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November 2002 Investor Roadshow

David Murray

Chief Executive Officer

Stuart Grimshaw

Chief Financial Officer

www.commbank.com.au

2

The material that follows is a presentation of general background

information about the Bank‟s activities current at the date of the

presentation, 4 November 2002. It is information given in

summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not

intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential

investors and does not take into account the investment

objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor.

These should be considered, with or without professional advice

when deciding if an investment is appropriate.

A full colour version of this presentation is available on the News

& Information page of the Commonwealth Bank‟s Shareholder

Centre website http://shareholders.commbank.com.au/display

Disclaimer

3

Speaker’s Notes

Speaker‟s notes for this presentation are

attached below each slide.

To access them, you may need to save

the slides in PowerPoint and view/print

in “notes view.”

4

Agenda

The Australian Economy and recent Equity Market

Performance

Commonwealth Bank: Track Record, Differentiators and

Growth Drivers

How is Commonwealth Bank Positioned Against the

Current Outlook?

The Australian Economy and recent

Equity Market Performance

6

Australia’s Economy has been Resilient

%%

%

Source: Commonwealth Research

V A L U E O F R E T A I LT R A D E

0

5

1 0

1 5

J u l -9 5 J u l -9 7 J u l -9 9 J u l -0 1

0

5

1 0

1 5

% p a% p a

R E L A T IV E G D P G R O W T H

(a n n u a l % c h a n g e )

-3

0

3

6

9

S e p - 8 7 S e p - 9 0 S e p - 9 3 S e p - 9 6 S e p - 9 9 S e p - 0 2

%

U S

A u s t ra l ia

G D P

(a n n u a l % ch a n g e )

-2

0

2

4

6

S e p -8 8 S e p -9 1 S e p -9 4 S e p -9 7 S e p -0 0

%

L o n g -ru n

a ve ra g e

P R O F I T S( % o f G D P )

8

1 2

1 6

2 0

S e p -9 0 S e p -9 3 S e p -9 6 S e p -9 9 S e p -0 2

C o rp o ra te

p ro fi ts *

(p r i v n o n - fa rm )

S m a l l b u s in e s s

in c o m e * * % G D P ( fc )

%

7

Interest Rates & Credit Growth

Source: Commonwealth Research

CREDIT

(3 month-ended annual rates)

-10

0

10

20

30

Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02

Business HousingOther personal

%THE CASH RATE

4

5

6

7

Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02

CBA (f)

Market (f)

(Jun „02)

Market (f)

(Oct „02)

8

0

2

4

6

Jul-86 Jul-89 Jul-92 Jul-95 Jul-98 Jul-01

0

15

30

45

$bn '000

Owner-occupied

(ex refinance)

(rhs)

Investor

(lhs)

50

100

150

200

250

Sep-86 Sep-90 Sep-94 Sep-98 Sep-02

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Mortgage rate (rhs)

All Ords (lhs)

House Prices* (lhs)

Housing Market

Source: Commonwealth Research

%Index

*CBA Est. House Price Index

EQUITIES AND HOUSE PRICES

(RELATIVE PERFORMANCE)HOUSING LOAN

APPROVALS

Compound Annual Growth Rate: 1986-2002 2000-2002

All Ordinaries Index: 6.2% -3.5%

House Prices: 10.1% 20.5%

9

Housing Market

Brisbane

Sydney

Melbourne

Darwin

Perth

Adelaide

Hobart

Canberra

House Price as Multiple

of Gross Yearly AWE*

Source: CBA Research

AWE: average weekly earnings

Sep-02 Sep-99 Change

Sydney 10.6 8.5 25%

Melbourne 6.7 5.3 26%

Brisbane 6.0 4.8 25%

Perth 5.0 4.6 9%

Adelaide 5.0 3.8 32%

Hobart 3.7 3.5 6%

Canberra 5.6 4.5 24%

Darwin 5.6 5.1 10%

Total Australia 7.6 6.2 23%

10

Housing Market

Source: Commonwealth Research, unless otherwise marked

$‟0

00 %

pa

%pa

Source: Residex

*assumes principal repayment ratio fixed at 1997/98 level

5

10

15

20

<30 31-50 51-70 71-100 >1005

10

15

20

% %

Income ($'000pa)

DEBT REPAYMENT LEVELS(% of h/hold income, Mar'02)

Source: Melbourne Institute

H O U S E P R I C E S

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

M a r - 6 0 M a r - 6 8 M a r - 7 6 M a r - 8 4 M a r - 9 2 M a r - 0 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

R e a l

g r o w t h

( r h s )

L e v e l

( lh s )

S Y D N E Y H O U S E P R I C E S( d e f la t e d b y t h e C P I)

- 4 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

1 9 0 0 1 9 1 2 1 9 2 4 1 9 3 6 1 9 4 8 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 9 6

Q I- Q III 2 0 0 2

a t a n n u a l r a te

9 0 th

p e r c e n t ile

P R IN C IP A L R E P A Y M E N T S

0

10

2 0

3 0

S e p - 9 7 S e p - 9 9 S e p - 0 1

0

4

8

1 2

C u m u la t iv e

o v e r p a y m e n t

o f p r in c ip a l*

( r h s )

Pr in c ip a l

( % o f m o tg a g e

p a y m e n t)

( lh s )

11

Australian Equity Market Performance

Source: Deutsche Bank

As at close of business 15 October, 2002

World Equity Market Performance(US$ Currency adjusted YTD%)

-6%-11%

-14% -15% -17% -18%

-26%

-34% -34%

-62%-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

ASX/A

USTR

ALI

A

NIK

KEI/J

APAN

BOLS

A/M

EXIC

O

FTSE/LO

NDON

HAN

G S

ENG

/HK

DJI

A/US

CAC

/FRAN

CE

NAS

DAQ

/US

DAX

/GERM

ANY

BOVE

SPA/BRAZIL

Indices

YT

D P

erf

orm

an

ce

12

Australian Banks - Credit Quality

BELGIUM

GERMANY

AUSTRALIA

NORWAY

FRANCEEURO RETAIL

DENMARK

EURO WHOLESALE

EURO INTL

ITALY

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

US FIDUCIARY/TRUST

UK

US MONEY CENTERS

US MID CAP REG

US LARGE CAP REG

SWEDEN

CANADA

SWISS

SINGAPORE

HK40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

2002E Median Nonperforming Loans/Loans (%)

2002E

Med

ian

Lo

an

Lo

ss R

eserv

es/N

on

Perf

orm

ing

Lo

an

s (

%)

Developed Markets Median LLR/NPLs 100%

Developed Markets Median NPL/Loans 1.7%

Source: Merrill Lynch Global Banks Team

Global Asset Quality Map - Selected Regions/Segments (2002E)

13

Australian Banks -

Shareholder Value Performance

1

312

25

CBA ANZWBC NAB

Ind

ex

Source: Oliver Wyman & Co Shareholder Performance Index, 2002.

Period covered by index 1 Jan 1997 - 31 Dec 2001

Global Five Year

Shareholder Performance Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Commonwealth Bank:

Our Track Record

Our Differentiators and Growth Drivers

15

Recent Result Highlights

Solid Earnings Growth

Reported Profit up 10.7% to $2,655m

Cash Profit up 10.6% to $2,501m

Cash EPS up 10.1% to $1.97

Costs steady year on year

Improved productivity and cost to income ratio

High dividend payout ratio relative to peers

Capital position remains strong

Credit Quality and Provisioning remains strong

16

Net Profit*

* Net Profit after tax and outside equity interest - cash basis.

Excludes appraisal value uplift and goodwill amortisation.

1,109 1,153 1,1921,309

Full Year = 2,262 Full Year = 2,501

875 918 9751092

156164

12197

7871 96

120

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun-02

Banking Life & Super Funds M anagement

17

ROE and EPS

Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02

9488

91

103

12.46%13.10% 13.14%

14.61%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

EPS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

ROE

Earnings per share - cash bas is ROE - cash bas is

18

Dividend Growth

20 2024

36 3845 46 49

58 6168

20 22

36

4652

57 58

66

75

82

72

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Ce

nts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

First Half Second Half Payout Ratio

19

Asset Quality Overview

First Half Second Half

Charge for Bad & Doubtful Debts (6 months) $290m $159m

Charge for Bad & Doubtful Debts to RWA(annualised)

0.42% 0.23%

Impaired Assets (net of interest reserved) $983m $884m

Specific Provisions $309m $270m

General Provision $1,334m $1,356m

General Provision to RWA 0.96% 0.96%

20

Current Operating Outlook 2002-2003

Core business remains sound

Equity market volatility has continued in the first quarter

of 2003

Additional costs of governance to be included in first half

result:

expensing of employee option plans

restructuring provisions taken above the line

Commonwealth Bank: Differentiators

22

Segmentation: Aligned Domestic

Structure with Customer Needs

Retail BankingServices

PremiumFinancialServices

Investment &InsuranceServices

Institutional &BusinessServices

CustomerGroup

Personalbankingcustomers,Small businessbankingcustomers

Premium clientsincludingprofessionalsand business

Agents, Brokers,Financial Advisers

Institutional,Corporate,Commercialbusinesscustomers

Channels Branch, Ezy-Banking, ATM,EFTPOS,Phone, On-line,Mortgagebrokers

Relationshipmanagers,Premiuminvestmentcentres, phone,on-line.

Agents, Branches,Brokers, FinancialAdvisers, Premiuminvestment centres,DirectDealerships,Institutional Clients

Relationshipmanagers,Business centres

Support Finance, Risk Management, Human Resources, Strategy, Technology, Legal, Secretariat

23

Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002

Home Loans^ 20.4% 20.1% 20.1%

(Residentially Secured)

Credit Cards 21.4% 21.4% 21.6%

Retail Deposits^ 24.0% 24.1% 24.2%

Retail FUM (Plan for Life) 16.1% 16.1% 15.7%

Superannuation/Annuities 16.3% 16.4% 16.4%

Retail Broking 9.0% 8.5% 9.2%

Inforce Premiums 14.4% 14.5% 14.4%

^ Due to delays in implementing new APRA reporting methodology,

no market share data has been available since March 2002.

Australian Market Share

Scale : Strong Market Share Positioning

Rank

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

*

*

* March 2002 data

*

*

24

Australia’s Most Accessible Bank

Over 146m DirectBanking calls

Almost 2m registered NetBank users

Around 126,000 EFTPOS terminals

Over 10,000 third party advisers,

brokers and agents

Around 4,000 ATMs

Nearly 4,000 postal and private

agencies

Over 1,000 branches

Over 700 EzyBanking store locations

Around 700 personal lenders

Over 700 financial planners

Around 200 mobile bankers

Over 70 business banking centres

13 premium banking centres

Customer

ChoiceBusiness

Banking

Financial

Planners

25

Brand: We Have More Relationships

Than Any Other Financial Institution

Source: Research International, April 2002

Popularity of Australian Financial Institutions….

* Customers under 25 years of age

^ Excludes Youth customers

39 40

21

14

27

22

42

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Overall Youth* Premium Retail^

%

NAB Group ANZ Group CBA Group Westpac Group St George Group

26

Brand: We Achieve Consistently High

Ratings from Retail Customers

Source: Research International Brand Monitor

Average across all brand attributes for CBA

Vs average of ANZ, NAB and Westpac%

• In touch with its

customers

• Is leading the way

• Is doing new and

different things

• Has knowledgable

and competent staff

• Has friendly and

reliable staff 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan

'01

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

'02

Mar May Jul

CBA Other Major Banks

27

Strong Corporate Governance Policies

CEO is the only Executive Director

Roles of CEO and Chairman separate

Limits on Board members‟ terms of

office

Nominations Committee establish

criteria for Board appointment

Board induction, continuing education

and succession planning

Annual assessment of performance

Audit Committee independence

Limits placed on share trading

Options eliminated from executive

remuneration

Closure of Directors‟ retirement

scheme

Policy that covers non-audit work

conducted by External Auditor

Rotation of External Audit Partner

Commonwealth Bank: Growth Drivers

29

Established in All Components of the

Wealth Management Value Chain

Investment Products

Sales Teams / BDMs

CommInsure

Sales Teams / BDMs

Retail

Banking

Services

(Branch

Network)

Third Party

Premium

Financial

Services

Institutional&

BusinessServices

OnlineDirect

(Mail &

Telemarketing)

Customers

Commonwealth Bank Retail Distribution Channels

(Sales & Advice)

Product Manufacturer

Banking Products

Sales Teams

Third Party

Non Commonwealth

Bank Channels

30

Brand - Colonial First State

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

7.30

7.45

7.60

7.75

7.90

8.05

8.20

8.35

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

AMP

AMP

AMP

BTColonial

or

Colonial

First

State

Colonial

First

State

AXA

Colonial

First

State

ING

Consumer Brand Awareness - Unaided

3

Consumer Brand Awareness - Total

Consumer Purchase Intention

2

2

Adviser Brand Awareness - Overall

Opinion of Organisation

Colonial

First

State

Platinum

1

Perpetual

Source: Consumer Charts - Newspoll June 2002;

Source: Adviser Chart - ASSIRT Service Level Survey 2002

31

29 28

2731 33 33

1723

24 26 25

2722

181921

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002

$b

illio

ns

Australian Retail Funds Australian Wholesale Funds

International Funds Internal Life Assets

Average FUM

Funds Under Management

$103bn

32

Innovation through

FirstChoice Masterfund Product

You and your

Financial

Adviser

Colonial First

State FirstChoice

Your financial

future

Structure

Value

Simplicity

Service

Investments PensionEmployer

Super

Personal

Super

33

Premium and Business Opportunity

Business (Middle Market)

Premium Customers

Source : Commonwealth Bank illustration

Current market share

Natural market share

Current number of premium customers

Potential number of premium customers

34

Premium: A Differentiated Business

Model

Banking

Platform

Broking

Platform

Borrowing Services

Lending Services

Transactional Banking

Advisory Services

Direct Investment

Indirect Investment

Debt Products

Equity Products

Personal

Banker

Commercial

Banker

Investment/

Equities

Expert

Event Based

Adviser

Insurance

Expert

Client

Primary Relationship ManagerSecondary Relationship Manager & specialised advice

35

Business: Increasing Cross-sell

Corporate Segment Example Bundled Products Example

26%

Working

Capital

Services

26% of corporate clients use

products from all three areas

Financial

Markets

Corporate

Finance

Business Banking

Financial

Markets

Working

Capital

Services

Interest rate risk

management

FX products

Investments

Bill financing

Cash funded loans

Overdrafts

Transaction services

36

Productivity: Focus on Efficiency

Remove all remaining back-office

functions from branches

Streamline home loan processes

Streamline Business Banking

processes

Rationalise investment products

& systems

Organisational design

...to achieve:

• A better service

experience for

customers, through

greatly improved

turnaround times

• Elimination of

duplication and

inefficiencies

• Annual benefits from

FY 2004, following an

incremental net cost

of ~$120m in FY2003

Five productivity initiatives...

How is Commonwealth Bank Positioned

Against the Current Outlook?

Credit Quality

Capital Position

Investment Market Volatility

Productivity Focus

38

Commonwealth Bank Group:

Low Credit Risk Profile

Housing Loans

53% of total loan book*

Loan loss rate of < 3bps in 17 of last 20 years

55% average loan to valuation ratio

Extensive stress testing of loan portfolio undertaken

Asset Quality

Impaired assets to risk weighted assets of less than 1%

in line with domestic peers

Relatively low bad debt expense

Well provisioned

* Excluding securitisation (or 57% including securitisation)

39

Total Individually Rated* Exposures

Credit Risk

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002

Other BBB A AAA/AA

61%

Investment

Grade

* Corporate and business lending

40

Investment Grade Exposures by Size

$0-$50m

$50m-$100m

$100m-$250m

$250m-$500m

$500m-$750m

$750m-$1bn

>$1bn

8

customers

9

customers

13

customers

66

customers

99

customers

101

customers

>15,000

customers

41

Offshore* Loans & Advances by Industry

Other

Commercial

Government Agriculture

Finance

Construction

Personal

Leasing

* Excludes New Zealand (ASB )

42

Aggregate Provisions

* Includes Colonial

$m

illio

ns

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jun

94

Jun

95

Jun

96

Jun

97

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00*

Jun

01*

Jun

02

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

%

General Provision

Specific Prov ision

Total Provisions/Gross Impaired Assets (axis on right)

43

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jun

1994

Jun

1995

Jun

1996

Jun

1997

Jun

1998

Jun

1999

Jun

2000

Jun

2001

Jun

2002

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

%

Commowealth Bank Group (Other Countries)*

Commonwealth Bank Group (Australia)*

Net Impaired assets as % of Total Shareholder Equity* (axis on right)

Net Impaired Assets

* Excluding Colonial prior to 30 June 2000

Asian Crisis

Acquisition

of Colonial

Two

Accounts

%

44

Non-Accrual Loans by Size

$5m<$10m $50m<$100m

$20m<$50m$10m<$20m

>=$100m<$5m

1

Customer

2

Customers4

Customers4

Customers

12

Customers

As at 30 June 2002

45

Non Accruals by Industry

Mining

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Property &

Business ServicesFinance

Transport

Government

Other

As at 30 June 2002

Accommodation,

Cafes & Restaurants

46

Industry Exposures

Insurance

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Services to Agriculture, Forestry,

Fishing & Mining

-1.02.03.04.05.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%3%6%9%12%15%

Agriculture

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Transport and Storage

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Metal Mining & Manufacturing

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Exposure to selected industries

Accommodation, Cafes and

Restaurants

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

$b $b $b

$b $b

$b

Balances $m % Portfolio % Troublesome % ImpairedLeft Axis: Right Axis:

47

0.00%

4.00%

8.00%

12.00%

Tier 1 Capital Total Capital

Strong Capital Position

2H01 1H02 2H02 2H01 1H02 2H02

TotalTier 1

CBA Target Range

Strong credit ratings

Shareholders equity

up $637m

Strong regulatory

capital ratios

Payments to

shareholders of $1,622m

48

Economic Equity

Regulatory capital ratios can be misleading:

Risk weights are not risk aligned

Capital required for residential mortgages is overstated

No operational risk charge

No value placed on earnings and risk diversification

Internal models show the Group is strongly capitalised

49

Risk* GroupUnit Linked

Shareholder Funds in Life Insurance Companies

Income

$0.5 billion$2.1 billion

53%47%

Growth

$2.6 billion

67% 33% 50% 50%

*Risk includes traditional, investment account, annuities, personal risk and group risk.

50

Greater Cost Control & Targeted

Investment in Priority Areas

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

31-D

ec-0

0

30-J

un-0

1

31-D

ec-0

1

30-J

un-0

2

Group Cost to Income Ratio (Normalised)

Upgrading infrastructure to

improve service

Developing and managing

relationships with all customers

Product simplification &

rationalisation; packaging

products for premium customers,

and manufacture innovative new

products

%

Focus on achieving further

productivity improvements...

...by reducing costs and spending

to improve service quality and

drive revenue growth

51

Strategic Outcomes

Business Driver Profile 5-Year Plan

Growth in market share Major product groups At or above market

Margins Comparable for Continuing decline business mix

Sources of income Comparable financial Continued shift institutions toward non-interest

Costs Reduction in cost- 3%-6% p.a.income - best practice productivity change

Capital Management Optimise regulatory Rating AA-capital & maintain rating

Total Shareholder Return Relative to peers Top Quartile

52

Summary

The Australian Economy and the Australian Equities Market

Have been relatively resilient

Economic outlook remains positive in global context

Commonwealth Bank‟s strengths include:

Our track record

Our differentiators

Our growth drivers

How is Commonwealth Bank Positioned Against

the Current Outlook?

Low credit risk profile

Strong capital position

Productivity focus

November 2002 Investor Roadshow

David Murray

Chief Executive Officer

Stuart Grimshaw

Chief Financial Officer

www.commbank.com.au