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November 14, 2017
Rockport-Fulton Chamber of
Commerce Luncheon
Casualties (economic losses due to deaths/injuries)
Property damages (windstorm and flood damage)
Infrastructure damages (industry and public facilities)
Disruption to local business and economic activity before full
recovery
• Evacuation Period: Temporary shutdown of most businesses
• Recovery Period: Transitory loss of operational facilities and
infrastructure, customer base, and displaced workforce
Permanent loss of local businesses and residents
Permanent increase in insurance cost (homes and businesses)
Hurricane’s Costs
2
List of impacts from immediate to long term …
Disaster AreasTAMUCC UAS began surveillance 2 weeks after landfall …
Location: Holiday Beach community in Rockport, Texas.
3
The median age is remarkably high at 49, compared to 35 for Nueces
County• Residents aged 60 years and older (33%) and Winter Texans may be less likely
to return
More than one in five housing units are mobile homes that were more likely
to receive wind damage
A large portion of businesses are home-based, without an office
75% of households have insurance coverage, but the percentage of
households applying for FEMA Individual Assistance in the wake of Harvey
is among the highest
Drawing on local officials’ estimates and damage assessments, the area
sustained an average loss of 26% in the total value of residential and
business properties
Community Profile
4
Sources of vulnerability to storms …
Community Profile
Rockport Fulton
Aransas
County
Population (2016 Census) 10,645 1,577 25,721
Median Age 47.7 50.1 49
Housing Units 6,290 992 15,614
- Single-Family Units 3,993 81 10,145
- Attached, Multi-Family Units 1,470 463 1,979
- Mobile Home 746 28 3,288
- RV, boat, van 81 0 202
Annual Business Sales ($Mil) $779 $106 $885
No. of Businesses 1,316 775 2,712
Business Establishments 388 228 615
Property Damage from Harvey:
% FEMA Individual Assistance 68% 65% 45%
% Destroyed (equivalence) 35% 33% 26%
Sources: 2016 Census, EMSI, FEMA, and South Texas Economic Development Center.
5
Communities have concentration in different sectors
• Oil & gas and construction are concentrated in Rockport, and farming is
relatively large in Fulton
• A more diverse economy is more resilient in the context of rapid recovery
• Export industries do not rely on the local market
Retail and hospitality (accommodation and restaurants) make up at
last one in three business establishments
• These businesses depend on the local market, so they can’t fully recover
without fully restoring the community
Economic Profile
6
Aspects of resiliency …
Pre-Harvey Economic Profile by Size
Source: EMSI, 2017.
7
Farming$1.3
Mining, & Oil/Gas Extraction
$115.2
Utilities$2.9
Construction$89.5
Manufacturing$17.3
Wholesale Trade$31.4
Retail Trade$112.5
Transportation & Warehousing
$17.1
Information$17.0
Finance & Insurance
$36.8
Real Estate $59.1
Professional & Technical Services
$44.8
Administrative & Waste
Management$48.2
Educational Services
$1.2
Health Care & Social Assistance
$54.1
Arts & Recreation$16.0
Accommodation & Food Services
$79.9
Other Services $34.9
Rockport Economy ($ Mil Sales)
Farming$35.1
Mining, & Oil/Gas Extraction
$2.4 Utilities
$0.2
Construction$4.8
Manufacturing$1.2
Wholesale Trade$3.4
Retail Trade$10.5
Transportation & Warehousing
$3.3
Information$0.3
Finance & Insurance
$12.1
Real Estate $6.9
Professional & Technical Services
$4.3
Administrative & Waste
Management$2.5
Educational Services
$0.0
Health Care & Social Assistance
$0.6 Arts & Recreation
$1.0
Accommodation & Food Services
$15.0
Other Services $2.6
Fulton Economy ($ Mil Sales)
Pre-Harvey Economic Profile by Number
Source: EMSI, 2017.
8
Farming2
Mining, & Oil/Gas
Extraction12
Utilities1
Construction61
Manufacturing5
Wholesale Trade8
Retail Trade58
Transportation & Warehousing
2Information12
Finance & Insurance
24
Real Estate 26
Professional & Technical Services
32
Administrative & Waste
Management8
Educational Services
1
Health Care & Social
Assistance39
Arts & Recreation
8
Accommodation & Food Services
57
Other Services 32
Rockport Business Establishments
Farming1
Mining, & Oil/Gas
Extraction1
Construction3
Manufacturing14
Wholesale Trade8
Retail Trade39
Transportation & Warehousing
10
Information1
Finance & Insurance
10Real Estate
14
Professional & Technical Services
16
Administrative & Waste
Management19
Health Care & Social
Assistance18
Arts & Recreation
9
Accommodation & Food Services
45
Other Services 20
Fulton Business Establishments
The majority of businesses are still closed (about half)
• Loss of gross sales activity, including wage earnings, etc.
• A portion of businesses/residents are displaced at least temporarily
Loss in capital stock
• $90M damage to public facilities countywide (Rebuild Texas Commission)
• Replacement costs for estimated damage to residential and business
structures (26% average)
Harvey’s Immediate ImpactsImmediate direct economic losses …
Rockport FultonAransas
County
Residential ($ Mil) $327 $52 $812
Business ($Mil) $118 $7 $134
Total ($ Mil) $446 $59 $1,035
9
3 Phases:
• Direct Impact (immediate): Loss of economic activity and capital
• Recovery (transitory): Rebuilding efforts take effect
• New Normal (equilibrium): Long-run occurs years later
Model Assumptions:
• All industries shut down when the area was hit
• Immediate loss of residential and nonresidential capital stock (values correspond
to observed damages of homes and capital investment required for business
operations)
• Separate capacity (resources) constraints for local and regional economies
• Three alternative speeds in restoring businesses and residential and
nonresidential capital losses (100%; 25%; 10% per year)
Recovery ScenariosSimulations of direct impact and response over time with a regional economic model
10
Typical Recovery PathsCumulative losses of business sales will double if recovery lasts for 4 years instead of one year, and double again if recovery lasts for 10 years instead of 4 years …
11
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Source: South Texas Economic Development Center.
Output ($ Mil Sales)
Immediate Recovery (1 year)
Rapid Recovery (4 years)
Slow Recovery (10 years)
Coastal Bend Communities
with highest storm impacts
and lowest capacity:
• Aransas Pass
• Fulton
• Rockport
• Woodsboro
12
Source: Community Planning and Capacity Building RSF, FEMA, October 31, 2017.
Agua Dulce city
Aransas County
Aransas Pass city
Austwell city
Bayside town
Bee County
Beeville city
Bishop city
Corpus Christi city
Driscoll city
Fulton town
Gregory city
Ingleside city
Ingleside On The Bay city
Kingsville city
Kleberg County
Mathis city
Nueces County
Odem city
Port Aransas city
Portland city
Refugio County
Refugio town
Robstown city
Rockport city
San Patricio city
San Patricio County
Sinton city
Taft cityWoodsboro town
0
1
2
3
0123
Ca
pa
cit
y S
co
re
Impact Score
Coastal Bend Council of Governments
High
Lo
w
Medium
Me
diu
m
Low
Hig
h
LOW
C
AP
AC
ITY
HIG
H C
AP
AC
ITY
HIGHEST IMPACT HIGH IMPACT
FEMA Assessments of RecoveryImplication of communities with highest storm impacts and lowest capacity for recovery …
13
Vicious CycleWhy race against time for communities with high storm impacts and low rebuilding capacity?
Recovery
Process
Lesson from Celia of 1970 The storm only extended existing upward or downward momentum …
14
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
0
50
100
150
200
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, and South Texas Economic Development Center
Post-Celia Population Trends (Year 1970=100)
Port Aransas Rockport Refugio Town Corpus Christi Aransas Pass
On
Impact
Lessons from Recent StormsBoth cities experienced a permanent loss of population by >15%
15
20
40
60
80
100
120
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Year struck by Hurricane
Population Trends (Base Year = 100)
New Orleans (Katrina 2005)
Galveston (Ike 2008)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
On
Impact
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