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PROCTER AND GAMBLE
November 10, 2009
By: Ron Sivick
Current price: $61.94 52 week range: $43.93 - 66.82 Market cap: 180B Large Core, Classic Growth Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: Personal Products Rating: Beta: 0.55
Company Overview
Founded in 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio engages in the manufacture and sale of
consumer goods worldwide Offers products to mass merchandisers,
grocery stores, drug stores, and membership club stores
Operates in three global business units Beauty Health and Well-Being Household Care
Company Overview Cont’d
Largest consumer product manufacturer Offers multiple products in a category and often
more than one brand, in order to reach the most possible shoppers
Continually improving products to increase brand loyalty
Has 23 brands which generate more than $1 billion in sales annually and another 20 brands that generate more than $500 million in sale
Focuses marketing and product development on its beauty-care and health-care segments as well as on developing markets
Overview cont’d
Continuing to expand to countries where they have no presence
Has doubled the sales it derives from developing markets, acquired and integrated Wella and Gillette, and divested a number of lower-margin brands
Beat EPS estimates for fourth quarter and year
Categories of Products
Air Fresheners Antiperspirants &
Deodorants Baby and Child Care Hair Care Hair Color Health Care Pet Nutrition Prescription Drugs Prestige Fragrances Batteries Household Cleaners
Shaving Skin Care Small Appliances Snacks Paper Products Oral Care Laundry & Fabric Care Cosmetics Dish Washing Feminine Care Body Wash & Soap
Global Presence
Argentina Egypt Japan Poland
Australia Finland Lebanon Portugal
Austria France Mexico Spain
Belgium Germany Morocco Sweden
Brazil Great Britain Netherlands Switzerland
Canada Greece Norway Turkey
China India Panama USA
Colombia Ireland Peru Venezuela
Czech Republic Italy Philippines
Net Sales Change
Net Sales Change Drivers vs. Year Ago (2009 vs. 2008)
Volume with Acquisitions & Divestitures
Volume Excluding
Acquisitions &
Divestitures
Foreign Exchange Price
Mix/ Other
Net Sales Growth
BEAUTY Beauty -2% -1% -4% 2% 0% -4%Grooming -6% -5% -6% 5% -2% -9%
HEALTH AND WELL-BEINGHealth Care -4% -3% -5% 4% -2% -7%Snacks and Pet Care -6% -6% -4% 9% -2% -3%
HOUSEHOLD CAREFabric Care and Home Care -3% -3% -5% 6% 0% -2%Baby Care and Family Care 1% 2% -4% 5% -1% 1%
TOTAL COMPANY -3% -2% -4% 5% -1% -3%
Net Income 2000-2009
Year Net Income (Millions)2000 $3,542 2001 $2,922 2002 $4,352 2003 $5,186 2004 $6,481 2005 $7,257 2006 $8,684 2007 $10,340 2008 $12,075 2009 $13,436
TTM $13,395
Sales by Business Segments
46%
33%
21%
Sales
Household Care
Beauty
Health and Well Being
Cross Sectional Analysis
Valuation P & G Johnson & Johnson Kimberly-Clark
P/E 14.23 13.17 14.6P/B
2.7 3.57 4.79P/S
2.27 2.73 1.41P/CF
12 11.1 8.8
Dividend Yield 2.90% 3.30% 3.80%Forward P/E
15.11 12.23 12.28Wall St. Rec.
2.2 2.2 2.5
Sell (5) Hold (3) Buy (1)
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Strong focus on Research and
development Leading market position Diversified product portfolio Strong brand portfolio
SWOT Analysis
Weaknesses Increasing instances of product Dependent on Wal-Mart Stores for
majority of its revenue
SWOT Analysis
Opportunities Expansion in developing markets Future growth plans Growing Indian FMCG market
SWOT Analysis
Threats Regulatory Environment Global Economic Conditions Counterfeit goods
Valuation
Morningstar Fair Value $77.00 Consider buying $61.60My Estimate $80.36
Recommendation
Investment rationale Focus on disciplined cash and cost
management along with investing in capacity, innovation and consumer value to sustain market share during the recession
Continuing to utilize their billion-dollar brands in growing markets
Have turned their focus to the business segments that will derive the most profit growth
Extended the availability and affordability of P&G brands to more low-income consumers
Recommendation Have chosen to focus on five core strengths that are
required to win in the consumer products industry: Consumer understanding
Interact with more than five million consumers each year in nearly 60 countries
Brand-building Built the strongest portfolio of brands in the industry with
23 billion- dollar brands and 20 half-billion-dollar brands Innovation
Leader in the industry Go-to-market capability Scale
Knowledge sharing, common systems and processes, and best practices as it is by size and scope