FILE COPY C-27

NOTES ON AGRICULTURE IN INDIA

BY

G.H. Bacon

CONSULTANT

THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

Washington, D.C.

November 15, 1956

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These notes result from a hurried visit to India from mid-April tomid-June, 1956. They are therefore very sketchy and deliberately omitmany important topics which there was insufficient opportunity of appraising.The impressions recorded are obtained from many consultations, a few, butwidely spread, visits to villages, and study of a selection of the amplewritten material available. The sections were written as separate notesand therefore lack continuity and are sometimes repetitive.

I. Fundamental and long-term aspects.LandWaterLand PolicyResearch and Personnel 1cFertilisers and Crop Husbandry 12Animial Husbandry 15Credit and Cooperatives 1ECommunity Development 21Conclusions 25

II. First Five Year Plan -1951-1956. 26

III. Second Five Year Plan, 1956-1961. 31

IV. Cotton Production. 43

V. Oilseeds Production. 50

VI. Jute Production. 58

VII. M1onsoon Effects on Food Grain Production. 62

VIII. Agricultural Irmports ad Exports. 63

Tables

I. Area and Production of Principal Crops 66II. Agricultural Production: Targets and Achievements 68

III. Sample Survey Data from West Oengal 69IV. Achievements of Community Development Program 73

V. Main Commercial Types of Cotton 77VI. Distribution of Jute and Mesta Production, 1955/56 79

Graphs.

Supply of Food Grains. Fluctuations in Jute Acreage.

I. Fundamental and Long-Term Aspects

LAND

1. Land Use Statistics, 1954/5

Million AcresNet area sown 315Current f allows 28

CULTIVATED AREA 33

Fallows other than current fallows 29Uncultivated land excluding fallows 95

CULTUABLE AREA 7

Not available for cultivation 122Forests 133

TOTAL CLASSIFIED 7i2

Unclassified 89

GROSS ARA 811

1/ Second Five Year Plan, p.322.

The above data are admitted to be incomplete, and the meaning of the termsused is not clear. There is no over-all land use survey, and standards ofclassification vary from State to State. The net area sown may vary by about

51 according to the incidence of rainfall in marginal areas. The term fallowgenerally means not sown; it rarely implies a positive cultural process.

Reclanation.

2. Recent investigations have indicated that only a small prcportionof the 124 million acres described as culturable, but not cultivated, is bothsuitable for reclamation and capable of reclamation at economic cost. Indeedit is suggested that a withdrawal from marginal areas taken up under theGrow More Food Campaign may result in a shrinkage of the net cultivated area.The vast areas of potentially cultivable jungle and hill land not yet de-veloped, the extensive flood margins and erosion slopes of the great riversand the saline swamps of the southern coasts seem to offer a great potentialfor expansion of the cultivated area, though doubtless at a higher cost peracre than has hitherto been acceptable. Some increase will be obtainedthrough extension of irrigation into desert areas. 1.8 million acres fallsinto this category during the Second Plan period. Deep plowing of landagainst kans grass is excluded from consideration here, because kans is a

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weed of cultivation and the land it occupies is therefore already classi-fied as cultivable. The process is one of temporary amelioration ratherthan of reclamation.

3. Until land use surveys have been completed and the practicabilityof reclamation projects has been worked out, both target and time-,ablemust remain speculative, but reclamation of at least a million acres a yearin the next thirty years and an eventual total of not less than 400 millionacres appear to be reasonable hopes. There secrms to be need, however, fora wider view of the value of additional land in relation to the costs ofreclamation. The clearing of forest land by the Central Tractor Organisationin West Bengal at a cost of about Rs. 400 per acre was considered too ex-pensive, even though in that locality of good soil and rainfall the costwas no more than the value of two or three yearst produce. iuch of thereclamation postulated, particularly where it involves training works onthe great rivers, will be much more costly.

Land Improvement.

4. The need for surface drainage is widely apparent, both for majorworks to drain extensive tracts of land and for small runnels and ditchesto drain individual fields and farms. Roads and canals are too often con-structed without regard to the blocking of natural drainage lines or withoutprovision of alternative drainage. It is a fair guess that the monsooncauses more loss of crop through unspectacular temporary water-loggingthan through drought or spectacular floods. Fertiliser and better seedare wasted if the young crop is killed or stunted by drowning, and pro-longed wetness of the land may so delay weeding that the damage is notconfined to the kharif crop but extends to the rabi crop, which faces de-pletion of nutrients and too late a sowing date. Attention to surface drain-age is one of the most straightforward and urgent mans of raising cropyields on flat lands. At village and farm level it affords a useful fieldof activity for the National Extension Service, which has need of surveyorsfor the purpose.

5. Sub-surface drainage for desalination and lowering of the water-table is required to recover or to improve areas, perhaps totalling twomillion acres, that have deteriorated under irrigation.

6. Parallel with the problem of getting rid of excess water is thatof preventing its running off before a sufficient quantity has soaked intothe ground. Even land which is almost flat benefits from judiciously placedlow bunds, and on sloping lands in India it is rare to see land that isadequately bunded as regards number of bunds and their alignment along thecontour. The waste of p ecious water and loss of crop potential must beenormous. With such a dense and underemployed agricultural population itis reasonable to expect that this loss will be checked in time as adviceand technical skill become available. Among present handicaps are (a) thescarcity of men with skill enough to demark a contour, and (b) fragmentation

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of holdings. In this latter respect consolidation will be even more valua-ble in the rainlands than in the irrigated areas. There must be 20Dmillion acres that would be improved by better bunding or other water-conserving techniques, and the potential crop increase may be of the order30% from the additional soil moisture which in turn would offer scope forthe increased use of fertilisers. Contour bunding on 1.5 million acres isincluded in the Statest programs for the Second Plan, but the wide-scalesolution must be with the National Extension Service.

7. Soil conservation on a national scale is the concern of the CentralSoil Conservation Board which was set up in 1953. In the First Plaa 700,000acres were subject to conservation measures, mainly the bunding of agri-cultural lands in Bombay. The Second Plan provides Rs. 200 million forwork on 3 million acres, of which 2 million are agricultural land and therest is river catchment areas, erodable waste lands and areas subject todesert and dune encroachment. Ravine and gully formation and the s4ilt loadof rivers demonstrate the serious rate of erosion which is inevitable insuch an intensively grazed and cultivated country unless counter-measuresare taken. Most tea planters and some vegetable growers on hill slopeshave learned the value of terracing, but careless cultivation has been re-sponsible for the loss of vast loads of soil. The Second Plan documentnotes: " recent erosion sivey of areas in Bombay which are exposed toscarcity conditions has shown that more than two-thirds of the cultivatedarea has been severely eroded, and about one-fourth of the land has beenrendered useless for agricultural purposes." Rs. 6.5 million are includedin the Second Plan for an erosion survey of 10 million acres in problemareas. Four thousand personnel are required and training arrangements andresearch projects have been instituted. The magnitude of the task ofchecking soil erosion in all its forms is enormous and during the many yearsthat must lapse before control is obtained erosion will be a factor tendingto decrease agricultural output.

WATER

8. With its reservoir of snow along the northern border giving de-pendable flow to great rivers and unknown replenishment of well fields,with a rainfall exceeding 50" over 69% of the country and less than 15" overonly 7%, with winter rains coming to the aid of the comparatively thirstysouth and with permeable soils permitting formation of sub-surface supplies,India is indeed well endowed with agriculture's first requirement.

9. The rainfall is fully adequate for production of crops and grazingover 90% of the country in an average year. Full utilisation of the rain-fall depends firstly on the establishment of conditions permitting maximumabsorption of water by the soil, secondly on its conservation by cleanweeding and surface tillage and thirdly on the punctual removal of surplusstanding water. Drainage, and prevention of run-off by banding, havealready been mentioned. Dry farming techniques are naturally traditionalin the drier areas but are not fully applied, and the value of their appli-cation in areas of heavier rainfall is insufficiently appreciated. As

recognized in the Second Plan document, this subject offers a field forresearch, demonstration and extension of the greatest importance. Raisingthe content of moisture in the soil would not only give an appreciabledirect increase in yields but it would also afford scope for the use offertilisers and heavier yielding varieties. In a combination of thesemeasures and pest and disease control lies the hope of eventually doublingthe yield per acre of rain-fed land.

10. Conservation of water resources on the large scale is inseparablefrom soil conservation measures on the one hand and afforestation programson the other. The construction of storage reservoirs heightens the needfor reducing the silt load of rivers. Extensive areas of the catchmentbasins consist of denuded hills that urgently call for vegetative cover.Those areas suitable for closely terraced agriculture will doubtless bedeveloped in that manner as pressure on the land increases. The scope forsuch development is vast. In the meantime afforestation is urgently re-quired on a much bigger scale than has so far been provided for. TheFirst Plan provided Rs. 96 million with which 75,000 acres were afforestedand 3,000 miles of forest roads were constructed or improved. More than20 million acres of formerly privately owned forest was brought underGovernment control. The Second Plan provides Rs. 270 million for the re-planting of 380,000 acres of derelict forest, the construction or repair

of 7,400 miles of forest road, the planting of 50,000 acres teak, 50,000acres of matchwood and 13,000 acres wattle and blue-gum. Training facilitieshave been arranged for some 3,000 additional staff. A Forestry Comissionis to be set up to advise and assist the States. About 22% of India'sland surface is under forests but most of the natural forest contains alow proportion of valuable timber and would be better clear-felled and re-planted with useful species or in part used for terraced agriculture. Inthe meantime, where the vegetation is thick enough, it serves a valuablepurpose in conserving soil and water.,

Irrigation.

11. Theoretically the surface and ground water resources of Indiaare sufficient to irrigate all the cultivabl area, but as availabilitiesof land and water are frequently not coincident and much of the land istopographically unsuitable for irrigation the area that can economicallybe brought under irrigation is estimated to be 236 million acres. Thiscompares with present and prosoective areas under irrigation as follows:

1951 51.3 million acres1956 66 " "1961 85 " (est.

After completion of projectsin hand and projects in

Second Plan 106 " (est.'

1/ Other versions of these figures show differences up to 2%. Thereis no accurate survey of irrigated areas.

Unfortunately a high proportion of the unirrigable area lies in zoneswhere rainfall is scanty, and much of the irrigable area lies in zonesof fairly heavy rainfall. However, there are few places in the countrythat would not benefit from irrigation at some time of the year, notablyin November and December. The figure of 236 million acres is very ten-tative as surveys are far from complete. Difficulties that may be revealedby further investigations should be more than offset by an upward revisionof the present conservative idea of the ceiling cost per acre that anirrigation scheme can stand. At present the planners have in mind anaverage figure of Rs. 300 per acre, which is very low compared with whatis acceptable in other countries. It is intended that progress towardsfull development shall be achieved at the rate of 3 or 4 million acres perannun and that the development shall include improvement in supplies tomuch of the area already scheduled as irrigated but where the water supplyis inadequate and undependable. Up to the present major structural en-gineering has been well executed, but there is room for groat improvementin field distribution and water usage, and in relation between wator avail-ability, crop requirenents and cropping pattern.

12. Full development therefore implies not only an additional 170million acres irrigated but assured water supplies that will allow peren-nial irrigation, with double or even treble cropping, over a substantialpart of the area. The increase in food grains by the yardstick at presentin use would be 34 million tons (over the 195/6 estimate of 63.3 million9but if the potential scope for improvement by drainage, fertilisers, bettervarieties and better husbandry is taken up, as it surely will be, 5he in-crease could be much more than double this figure. There is no doubt thatwater is the key to agricultural production in India: getting the rain-water into the soil, expanding the irrigated area, and prompt removal ofsurplus water.

13. In selection of projects submitted by the States, accouni istaken of costs and benefits, famine insurance, flood control and a fairspread of development over the country. A return of 4-JIS on invesnmentis considered satisfactory but is not insisted upon. Interest chargesincurred during the construction period are treated as capital investment.While it is intended that projects shall moot their own capital and runningcosts, no attempt is made to accumulate surpluses for financing furtherdevelopment. Estimates of costs of major projects now under constructionhave risen substantially during the construction period by reason of in-creased cost of labor and materials and widening of the scope of te project.Field costs and benefits are apparently estimated without any detailed surveyof the land to be irrigated and with no firm plan for water usage. Majorconstruction works are sometimes carried out by the Centre on behalf ofthe State (Hirakud), sometimes by the Irrigation Branch of the State'sPublic Works Department (Bhakra-Nangal), sometimes by a statutory corpora-tion (Damodar Valley Corporation) and sometimes by private contractors, who

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may also participate in the first three categories. Formation of aNational Construction Corporation is under consideration. Full use hasbeen and is being made of foreign technicians.

14. Direct returns from irrigation projects consist of water ratesand betterment levies. Some States are reluctant to impose bettermentlevies and there is general reluctance to increase water rates. The better-ment levy is designed to be a payment to the Government by the land ownerin respect of the increased capital value of the land deriving from theaccession of irrigation facilities. If the supply of irrigation water isperennial the levy is Rs. 100 to Rs. 175 per acre, payable in up tc twentyannual installments. On the data given for the Bhakra-Nangal project itappears that a betterment levy at the higher rate would cover the capitalcost of the irrigation works, including the irrigation share of the storagestructures. Water rates have been raised only 50% above their pre-warlevel, They vary from State to State. Examples:-

Water-rates per acreP.E.P.S.U. 1/ Uttar Pradesh 2/

Wheat Rs. 6 Rs. 12Cotton 8Rice 9 14Sugarcane l4 32Gram 8Forage 2 3

1/ Conversation with Bhakra-Nangal staff.2/ Chabaria, east of Moerut.

In the Punjab water-rates approximate to about one rupee per acre-watering,with leniency towards forage crops. Water-rates rately exceed 6% cf thegross value of the crop and are often much IDss than this, providing astriking contrast with practice in other countries. As the farmer's grossoutput is often increased 100% by irrigation it would seem not unreasonableto ask him, despite his poverty, to make a larger contribution to the costof the project. Otherwise it appears that some irrigation projects willhave to be subsidized to provide for the high standard of maintenance andmanagement that is necessary for development of full efficiency.

15. Of the 66 million acres under irrigation some 0 million areirrigated by tube wells, shallow wells and tanks, The last two are oftenhighly dependent on replenishment by annual rainfall and so are not sosure a source of water as a good major irrigation scheme. Minor irriga-tion is more exposed to shortcomings in maintenance arrangements. It willtherefore be replaced by major irrigation projects as the latter spread,but in the meantime it is capable of rapid expansion and it will remainto make an important permanent contribution in areas where major irriga-tion is not practicable. The development of electric power has stimulated

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the expansion of tube well irrigation which is expected to expand by twomillion acres in the Second Plan period as compared with 0,7 million acresin the First Plan period. The cost of irrigating an acre of wheat by tubewell is said to be about Rs. 20 in the Punjab and about Rs. 100 at Anand(Bombay State). Installation of tube wells, being expensive, is usuallya State responsibility. The digging of shallow wells will be promoted byconsolidation of holdings, Particularly in undulating country there isgreat scope for expansion of tank irrigation, and the National ExtensionService should stimulate cooperative effort in this field.

16. Full exploitation of minor irrigation potential requires surveys,notably completion of the ground water survey, financial aid to smallprivato undertakings, stimulation of cooperative action and maintenanceservices for both State and private installations. Major irrigaticn par-ticularly requires attention as regards field distribution and water usageand calls for a large staff skilled in such matters to advise and supervisethe cultivators, to regulate water flows and to see that minor distributoryworks are properly executed and maintainedo

LAND POLICY

17. The declared aims are the removal of social injustices and thepromotion of agricultural efficiency. Since independence, considerableprogress has been made towards removal of oppressive exploitation of tenantsand this is doubtless largely responsible for the spirit of receptivenesswhich is today apparent in the agricultural community and which made possiblethe attainments of the First Five Year Plan. Progress, procedures and phi-losophies differ markedly from State to State, and availability of data isuneven and very inadequate. Table III gives the findings of a sample sarveyof two districts in West Bengal which illustrate the problems of fragmen-tation and unviable holdings.

Abolition of Intermediaries.

18. The term intermediaries appears to cover not only the zarindars,intermediate betwoen the large land owners and the cultivators, bu-1 alsothe large land owners themselves, who are regarded as intermediate betweenthe cultivators and the land. In some States progress has been re-artedby the lack of land registers and clarity of title and the adminis-rativedifficulties of organising alternative machinery for collection of rentsand revenues and for the management of lands accruing to the Government.Assessment of compensation to the intermediaries is another major -ask.The total amount involved is about Rs. 4,500 million. Payments are spreadover twenty years and may be partly in cash but are mainly in Governmentbonds.

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Leases.

19. Some States permit private leasing, generally with safeguardsfor the tenant. Rents have in some instances been restricted, to as lowas one-sixth of the gross value of the crop, but elsewhere no restrictionhas been imposed and rents may be as high as one-half of the crop value.Some States have assumed landlordship at the rthts previously payable.

Ownership.

20. In some States the policy is towards transference of ownershipto the tenant, but, where this involves the tenant in a capital payment,the option of ourchase has often not been exercised because of proverty.It is remarkable that State ownership, which has the advantages of avoidingfragmentation and can provide sanctions against misuse of the land, escapes

discussion in the Plan documents. Under the Bhoodan movement some 4 millionacres have been given up by private owners for the rohabilitation of land-less workors and about 300,000 acres have been distributed.

Ceilings.

21. Sevoral States have imposed a ceiling on future acquisition ofagricultural land, ranging from 8 to 50 acres, but little action has beentaken towards applying ceilings to present agricultural holdings farmedby a resident owner or manager. The publicity given to the intentiorn todo so probably misrepresents the firmness of tho intention. The SecondPlan document points out the advantages of exempting plantations, dairyfarms and "efficiently managed farms which consist of compact blocks,"Fear of losing their farms has induced many town-resident land owners toreturn to residence on the land.

22. In the highly productive agricultural countries the enterprisingcapitalist farmer has been the principal contributor to the rate of progress.He exposed the need for research and he exploited the results of it. Inthe fields of farm management and economics he was his own research worker.He adventured, sometimes losing money, sometimes profiting, and the massof less educated farmers and small holders benefited from his experienceand example. Indian agriculture has suffered from lack of concern on thepart of the capitalist save in his capacity as rent collector. Today,however, there are qualified young men prepared to devote their brainsand resources to private faning. It will be very damaging to the rateof progress if such men are diverted from farming through uncertaintyabout Government policy, Nothing could do more to stimulate agriclturalprogress than positive assurances encouraging private investment ia agri-

culture by bona fide resident and qualified farmers in numbers sufficientto have demonstrational value but insufficient to imperil the basic policyof peasant--ownership.

Consolidation*

23. The process consists in giving each parcel of land within avillage boundary a value related to its productivity and then allottingto every owner a single holding of a productivity value approximating tothe sum of the values of his several parcels. Consolidation providesopportunity for logical alignment of canals, roads and drains in additionto its obvious advantages in agricultural operations. Its benefits appearto be appreciated, particularly in irrigated areas and where well-diggingis feasible. It can also be of great value in rainfed areas requiringbundin6 and other conservation measures. Consolidation programs have beenin operation in different parts of the country for more than a generationand the slow progress has been mainly due to the shortage of staff. Themain areas so far covered are 4 million acres in the Punjab, 2.5 millionacres in Madhya Pradesh, about one million acres in P.E.P.S.U. and 1,060villages in Bombay. It is progressing in 21 districts in Uttar Pradeshwhere the prevalence of bureaucratic rather than domocratic procedures isillustrated by the fact that appeal from the decisions of the Land SettlementOfficer lies only through a hierarchy of officials, ending at District level,and not to a local tribunal as might have been expected. The disquietingfeature of consolidation is its impermanence. Although some States havelegislation designed to prevent sales of land that would reduce a holdingto less than a specified limit (. acres in the Punjab) there appears to beno protection against refragmentation by operation of the laws and customsof inheritance. It will doubtless be a long time before public oTinioncan accept alterations in traditional inheritance procedures,

Land Revenues.

24. In the Punjab before the second world war Land Revenue was in-tended to be equal to 25% of the not crop proceeds. It was paid by thelandlord. If the latter received rent in cash, the rent approximatelyequalled the whole of the net crop proceeds, allowance being made for thevalue of the cultivator ts labor. Thus cash rents provided a basis forassessment of Land Revonue. In general, Land Revenue rates have r.ot beenre-assessed since the pro-war poriod. In the Punjab 1/ today the rateis Rs.3 per acre, about 2-"% of the gross crop value. In Uttar Pradesh 2

the rate is Rs. 6 per acre. In the area visited the crops were betterthan in the Punjab example, and included sugar cane, so the rate is againabout 2- i of the gross crop value. The Bhakra-Nangal authorities gavea figure for Land Revenue of 2 or 3 rupees per acre. (The examples quotedare the same as those used to illustrate watr-rates in paragraph 14.)

1/ Tarn Taran tahsil, Amritsar.2/ Chabaria village, Meerut,

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The philosophy of lenience towards the improverished peasantry is under-standable, but the feasibility of collecting more direct revenue fromagriculture must surely be due for consideration. The cultivator haslargely been relieved of the burden of oppressive rents, his prices aremuch higher than pro-war, and he is slowly (for the most part) beingoffered facilities for increasing his output. An upward revision 1/ ofLand Revenue, with removal of anomalies as between different States, appearsto be a logical development. It would, moreover, enable States to adopta more progressive policy towards expenditure on agricultural improvementprojects. Land Revenues and Agricultural Income Tax accrue to the States.In 1955/56 the two items were Rs. 780 million and Rs. 50 million respectively,together comprising 8.6% of total Centre and State revenues and representingjust under 25 of the gross value of agricultural production, which accountedfor about Rs. 42 billion of the not national product of Rs. 98 billion.

2ESEARCH AND PERSONNEL

Research.

25. Organized agricultural research started in India early in thecentury and much of it achieved world-wide reputation. Although the fieldapplication of the results of research is lagging far behind the knowledgeobtained, there is little doubt that research resources today are in-sufficient to investigate all the problems facing Indian agricultxre.There is much planning and committee work of high quality, but the ma-chinery for practical achievement is often inadequete.

26. In 1955 a joint Indo-American tean of agricultural scientistsreported on agricultural research and education in India. They note:"Agriculture as practiced in India is primarily based on an artisanshipdeveloped through generations of experience of those who tilled the soil.Today's cultivator has confidence in production methods that years oftrial have evolved. His economic position precludes ready adoption ofacceptance of new cultural practices, crop varieties or other improvements.New techniques must be as foolproof and freo from economic risk as possiblebefore they are offered to the cultivator. Any neglect in this regardwould result in a loss of confidonce of the cultivator not only in theorganization that did the research job to develop the new technique butalso in the organization that extended the new technique to him."

27. Agricultural research is conducted at a number of insti.utes,some of which are responsible to the Centre and. some to the States.The Central Research Institutes are responsible to different adrinistra-tive heads in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. The researchinstitutes associated with agricultural colleges are responsible inpart to the universities and in part to the States. There are also afew independent research institutes. The Indian Council of AgriculturalResearch was established in 1929 as a technical wing of the Minisary ofFood and Agriculture to coordinate agricultural research throughout the

I/ See Report of the Taxation Enquiry Committee (N1ew Delhi, 1955).

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country and to direct financial assistance towards projects requiringsupport. Its powers of coordination are, however, limited to the pro-jects which it sponsors. Moreover, the coordination is achieved morethrough study of reports than through field inspections. The financialsupport is usually in the form of grants for five years or less, andthis also applies to the financial support given by the various CommodityCommittees. A major weakness of the commodity approach to agriculturalresearch is the neglect of basic techniques of agriculture and soil manage-ment which transcend the limits of individual crops.

28. The Indo-American Team has made recommendations regarding coordina-tion of the research effort by strengthening the Indian Council of Agri-cultural Research and oxtending its powers, and by better deployment offinancial provision and substantially increasing it. One of the rindeficiencies pointed out by the Team is in regard to research on pestsand diseases. They found that few institutes had more than one soniorresearch worker to deal with all the important post and disease problemsin the State. They noted that in the whole of India only two full-tinescientists are engaged on the important problem of insect vectors. Theynote, however, that there are available and working in India a number ofhighly competent, well-trained scientists to provide the nucleus of guidingleadership for more adequate research on the problems which most needattention. They also note an undesirable separation in some instancesof institutes dealing with animal and crop husbandry, which should becoordinated at the research level as they are in farming practice.

Staff.

29. The present short-term financial support for many research pro-jects militates against recruitment of high-quality staff. In pointingout the need for long-term planning and continuity of research programs,the Team emphasized the need for permanent staff cadres with satisfactorycareer prospects. A greater degree o devolution of authority un5o headsof research institutes and by thom to their section chiefs is essentialto efficient working and to development of responsibility in subordinatestaff,

30. As regards senior staff, the Team notes: "The direction orsupervision of research for educational programs in agriculture as in anyother field must be ontrusted to individuals who have a full understandingof the problems, requirements and potentialities in these technical fields.The increasing tendency in India in some States or institutes to olaconon-technical adDinistrative officers in charge of agricultural risearch,education and other technical services is a move towards modiocriby intechnology. This particularly applies to key positions of State Directorsof Agriculture. Since these posts have immediate responsibility forresearch and education in agriculture at the State level there shouldbe proper technical leadership at the head to lead stability and serveas a stimulating and driving force." It appeared that too often the manwith the responsibility lacked the knowledge and experience to make wise

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decisions or to be effective at the conference level. The man with theknowledge felt little responsibility for decisions with which he oftendisagreed. He therefore felt no challenge to exert his best efforas and

. thus he failed to inspire his subordinates at all lovels.

31. In a country such as India whore the administrative officer isso often dealing with the problems of an agricultural community, it isanomalous that the qualified agriculturist should be specifically ineligibleto compete for the Indian Administrative Service. Exaggerated faiah inthe value of the generalist as opposed to the man with a professionaltraining is one of the unfortunate legacies of British rule.

32. The Team also notes: "The disparity between the salaries ofscientists or teachers in agricultural and administrative positions is un-realistic and results in a down-grading of scientific stature in India anda loss of a disproportionate share of India's intellectual competence whichis decanted off into the administrative field. An early review of thesalary scales of the scientific staff in agriculture by the next Pay Com-mission is essential to ensure salary adjustments that will attract andhold scientific personnel." The difficulties of raising the agriculturalefficiency of the impoverished peasantry are so great that only men ofimagination, resourcefulness and drive are likely to be effective. Becauseof the importance of agriculture to India, a fair share of the best brainsand strongest personalities must be drawn into this task by creation of anelite service, inferior to none in ronumeration, prestige, prospects andultimate authority, so that the best students will compete for places inagricultural training centers as they now compete for the Indian Administra-tive Service. This elite service should cover the whole field of research,agronoly, extension, cooperation, credit and marketing organization.

33. The Teamts review of agricultural education does not perhaps makea sufficient distinction between the training of highly-educated alri-cultural scientists on the one hand and the training of agricultural tech-nicians and extension workers on the other. It is clear that a great dealof agricultural and allied training is required at standards lower thanthose usually associated with a university. There will be loss in thelong run if universities are diverted from the maintenance of a high stan-dard of intellectual discipline, and if highly qualified research workersare distracted from their duties in the course of meeting the immediateneed.for training a large number of extension workers.

FERTILISERS AND CROP HUSBANDRY

Manurial Requirements.

34. Knowledge of the use of artificial fertilisers vzs_ largely re-stricted to the research institutes until, under the Grow Moru Fool Cam-paign, experiments were extondod to cultivators' fields. This prolram wasamplified in 19,04 by the inauguration of an all-India scheme for fertiliser

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demonstration trials by the Indo-U.S. Technical Cooperation Mission, whichis also about to set up twenty-four soil-tosting stations. These will notonly provide the advice needed by the National Extension Service but willalso slowly accumulate a comprehensive knowledge of the fortilisor require-ments of soils throughout the country. Leaching and continued croppinghave reduced the soil nutrient status to a very low level. Nitrogen isuniversally deficient, the coarscr soils are often short of phosphate andgood response to potash has been obtained on deltaic soils in West Bengal.

35. A summary of the data of 0,000 out of the 60,000 demonstrationtrials carried out in the kharif of 1954 shows yield increases of tetween

4 and 15 maunds 1/ of paddy per acre from a dressing of 30 lbs. nitrogen.The highest percentage increase was 5%, from 21.6 to 32.9 maunds, on redgravelly soil at Tumkur in Mysore State (average of 03 experiments) andthe highest absolute increase was 15.1 maunds, from 32.8 to 47.9 on grey-brown soil in the Punjab. Additional responses where phosphate (30 lbs.P205 ) was added to the nitrogenous dressing were much more variable,ranging from nil to 11.5 maunds per acre (control 20.7 maunds, with nitrogen31.9 maunds, with nitrogen and phosphate 43.L maunds, average of 15 experi-monts in the Punjab). Urea as a source of nitrogen generally gave the sameresponse per unit as sulphate of ammonia. Data relating to crops other thanpaddy were comparatively meager but indicated the responsiveness to fertiliserof crops such as maize, bajra (pennisetum), 0leusine and cotton.

36. In the winter of 1953/54 a widely spread range of simple experi-ments was conducted on cultivators' fields of wheat, A dressing of 20 lbs.nitrogen in the form of sulphate of ammonia raised the average yield from14.6 to 16.9 maunds per acre (312 experiments). The highest increase was4.0 maunds on 18.9 at Nawanshahar in the Punjab, and the largest percentageincrease was 37%, from 7.7 to 10.6 maunds at Summerpur in Rajasthan.Phosphate (20 lbs. P205) alone gave an average increase of 1.9 maunds, andphosphate and nitrogen together gave an average increase of 3.6 maunds,the highest increase being 6.7 maunds on 25.9 at Raisingnagar in Rajasthanand the greatest percentage increase was 57%, from 8.3 to 13 maunda peracre at Pisanganj in Ajmer.

37. In calculating the results of fertilisor usage on a large scaleit is generally assumed that one ton of sulphate of ammonia will producetwo tons increase in yield of food grains. This may well be so underpresent conditions, but the results quoted above show that as knowledgeof soils and fertiliser usage increases a much higher average response maybe expected. The averages of the experiments show an increase of 3.8 tonsof paddy or 1.9 tons of wheat from one ton of sulphate of ammonia. Hadthe fertiliser been applied only to the most responsive soils the averageincreases sould of course have been much higher. The top figures quoted,which are averages of 17 and 18 experiments respectively, are 8.4 tonspaddy or 3.2 tons wheat from one ton sulphate of ammonia. Although theexperiments were conducted on cultivators' fields doubtless some elementof "better methods of cultivation" entered into the results. It is to

1/ One maund = 82-2/7 lbs..

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be expected that a farmer who takes the trouble to use fertiliser willtake trouble in other ways also, otherwise he will not get the full rc-turn from his outlay.

Fertiliser Usage.

38. Although most of the experimental work with fortilisers has sofar been on irrigated crops, encouraging results have also been obtainedwith rain-grol:m crops. With the expansion of irrigation and improved con-servation of moisture in rain-crop farming the scope for fertiliser usageand the potontial increase in yield will become enormous. Of the envisaged400 million cultivable acres the proportion that will be too dry to be agood fertiliser risk will be offset by the area of double or treble cropping,One-tenth of a ton per acre of fortilisers of the nature of sulphate ofammonia and superphosphate is a conservative figure for the intensive agri-culture that is expected to develop in time, so Indials ultimate fertiliserrequirement is likely to be of the order of 40 million tons annually.

Average consumption in metric tons of artificialfertilisers in 1953/54, per 1,000 acres. 1/

Nitrogen P205Japan 36-.2 T.9Egypt 18.4 2.0Western Europe 12.3 15.2U.S.k. 3.6 14.4India .2 .1

1/ Adapted from FAO 1onthly Bulletin, November 1954.

The 1953/54 Japanese rate of consumption on 400 million acres would requireabout 72 million tons of sulphate of ammonia and 53 million tons of suer-phosphate.

39. During 1954 and 1955 the cost of a given weight of sulphabe ofammonia on the farm was generally very close to the farmers' price Dfdouble that weight of grain, i.e. the cost of the fertiliser approximatelyequalled the avorago expected increase in yield. An increase loss thanaverage, by reason of drought, flood or disease, would involve the farmerin loss. There was no inducement to take the risk. Only where farmerscould safoly expect an increase above the average, as where land aziwater supply were favorable to cultivation of rice by the Japanese method,could they be oxpected to invest in fertilisor for food grains. Greatlyextended use of fertilisers is to the advantage of the Indian economy,but it will not be attained unless it is attractive to the farmer. Therelationship between the cost of fortiliser and the price of farm produceis therefore a matter of national concern. India may find it expedient

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to subsidize fertilisors, as has been done in other countries at timeswhen increased farm production was imporative. So long as supplic3 arolimited it is important that the National Extension Service, aided by thesoil-testing stations, directs fortiliser to the areas where the highestresponses can be expected with the least risk.

Organic Manures.

40. The loss of dung as fuel is enormous except where altoniative fuelis readily available. Gil cakes and cotton seed are also used extensivelyas fuel, but large quantities, which could moro profitably be processedand used as cattle feed, are used as manure. Green manuring gives goodresults but will always be limited to areas where water supply is adequateand where the farmers can afford the waiting time involved. Important de-velopments are taking place in the composting of urban refuse.

Improved Strains.

4l. Some of the comorcial crops, notably cotton and sugar cane, havelong boon subject to a continuous procoss of varietal improvement by dis-semination from the research centers. Similar work on food crops receivedimpetus from the Grow More Food Campaign, but at the end of the First Planperiod, on-ly 3% of the area under cereals was sown with improved varietiC3,,It is intond.ed that by the end. of the Second Plan every block of 100villages shall have its own seed-farm for multiplication of seed providedby the research farms. Exporience in other countries has shown the greatpotontial lying in varietal improvement, and this holds equally good pros-pects in India as the output of the research workor and the methods of thefarmer improve.

Pest Control.

62. Pests and plant diseases take a heavy toll of crops in India.There seems to be a tendency to accept this as largely unavoidable and neitherprevontive nor curative measures receive vigorous attention as a generalpolicy. A stronger agricultural administration, the development of theNational Extension Service and domonstrations of techniques by the Indo-U.S.Technical Mission should open the way to reduction of unnecessary croplosses and to the extension of heavy-yiolding variAtics into areas nowtoo dangerous for them.

.NIhL HUSEaLdDR-

43. The size of India's livestock population is shown by the follwingtable. (Source: FAO Yearbook, 1954.) The Indian f igures are from the1951 census.

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M1illion hoad

India World

Horses 1.5 75.6Hulos 0.1 16.2 1/Donkeys 1.2 36.0 T/Cattle 155.1 797.0 -Buffaloes 43.4 76.4 1/Pigs 4,4 328.1Shoop 38.8 80.0Goats 47.1 286.0Camels 0.6 9.6 1/Poultry 73.4 n.a.(Human population 384 2600 )

1/ Excluding U.S.S.f.

India has nearly one-fifth of the world's cattle population, over a half ofthe world's buffaloes and one-sixth of the world's goats. The general pre-judice against taking life, supported by law in many States in the case ofcattle, coupled with shortage of forage, has resulted in a low level ofproductivity and performance that is the weakost feature of India's agri-culture today. It is estimated that available food supplies are notsufficient for proper maintenance of more than half the present livestockpopulation.

44. The working bullock is essential to the farmer and is unlikelyto become less so in the foreseeable future. Although in some areas thereis a shortage of bullock power thero is a surplus in others. Over thecountry as a whole there is no doubt that a smaller number of well fedbullocks would moot cul-tivation and draft requirements better than thepresent 60 million or so ill-fed working animals. Buffaloes are mainlykept for their milk, and the total output of buffalo milk is thought tobe greater than that of the far larger number of cows. The inhorent meritsof some of the indigoenous breeds have long been known through the work ofthe military dairies and, later, of the research institutes. Good manage-mont and selective breeding increased the average daily milk yield in thefamous Sahiwal herd from 10.5 lbs. to 24.5 lbs. btween 1914 and 193, andin the same period the service ago of hoifers was reduced from 32 monthsto 21 months. The best cow has averaged over 10,000 lbs. in her eightlactations. The general average for cows throughout the country is thoughtto be betwoon 400 and 500 lbs., barely sufficient to rear the calf. Theaverage of buffaloes is thought to be over 1,000 lbs., and as they arebetter utilizers of coarse fodder they are relatively loss responsive toimprovement in foeding and management. Moreover, they are generally morecarefully tended than are cows.

$. The first roquirement in livestock improvement is an economicapproach to the subject, leading to attainment of a proper relationship

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between number of cattle and availablo fodder. Until this has been achieved,the noxt step, improvomont by seloctivo brooding, can have little effect.Unfortunately the autnorities are paying noro attention to the latter, forit is much casier to institute breeding prograns than it is to reducenumbers in the face of tradition and the law, or to grow more forage 1/in the face of pressure on the land to meet human noods. The probLem ofwithdrawal of unproductive surplus cattle has boon nominally tackl3d bythe establishient of gosodans or concntration camps. The number thatcan be catered for in this way is trivial and will make no appreciablecontribution to the solution of the problem. Humanitarian and economicaims cannot be reconciled by a. gosodan policy, for either the cattle th(re-in are being starved to death or they are consuming forage that could bebetter used for productive animals. If there are areas where surplus graz-ing is available, the establishment therein of gosodans for cattle waitingto return to productivity, e.g. for in-calf dry cows or for working bullocksduring the slack season, would be useful. There soms to be no solutionto the problem of over-population so long as the antipathy to slaughteringexists, but it is encouraging to hear that there is no projudice againstthe castration of scrub bulls and the sterilization of inferior foales.Widespread establishment of these practices would reduce the proportionof animals that are almost useloss from birth, while not affecting theproportion that is uscless through age.

46. Solution does not lie in increasing the fodder supply, firstlybecause there is no land to sParo for the purpose and secondly Occause, newthat opidomic diseases are controlled, malnutrition provides the only brakeon further increase in numbers. Slowness to maturity and long intervalsbetween gestations are charactoristic of ill-fed cattle. Any increase infood supplios would. cause an incroase in birth-rate unless restrictive actionwas taken. A country with such high population pressure cannot afford todevote much land to feeding livestock. More units of human food are obtainedby hunan consumption of crops than by convertin-, crops into human foodthrough the ro,diuin of livestock. It is fortunate that so many Indians havevegetarian tendencies. The logical long-torn development is the maintenanceof that number of working and milch cattle that can be well fEod on the by-products of human fod cros and cash crons and. on well-managed grazinglands which are unsuitable for cultivation. host crop residues are alreadyused in this way, but there is extensive unoconomic use of oil-cakes andcotton seed as fucl and manure, and there is scope for simple chemi:altreatment of cuarse roughago to improve its digestibility. Under an in-tensive agricultural system the output of odible crop residues will greatlyincrease. Only if this is insufificient to maintain the roquired numberof working animals and the nocessary output of nutrients of anilal originwill the growing of more foragc crops be a logical development except nearurban areas where the demand for livestock products is concontrated. Im-portation of dried milk may prove to be a sound permanent economic propo_sition.

1/ At present 3-1% of the cultivated area.

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47. So long as the problom of numbers remains unsolved the work onhealth and breeding, now largoly associated with the C'immunity DevolopmentProgramme, can have only limited value. Under what is known as the KeyVillage Scheme, veterinary efforts are concentrated in selected areas whorethree or four adjacent villages have jointly about 2,000 ccws of broodingago. Stud bulls and artificial insomination services are provided, andscrub bulls are castrated. During the First Plan period 600 Key Villagesand 150 artificial insemination centors were ostablished. The numbers pro-jected for the Second Plan period arc 1,258 and 245 respectively. Resultswill not be assessable until some years have elapsed.

48. In the densely populated areas sheep and goats, the main sourceof the meat consuied in the country, are exposed to the same fodder shortageas are cattle, with the goat having the advantage of a powerful digestivesystem. In the hill-grazing areas there is scope for improvement in qualityof wool and hair of value for internal use and for export. Host of the woolat present is too coarse for the manufacture of good cloth and is exportedfor carpet making, the export value being about Rs. 80 million. Imports offine wools cos- about Rs. 120 million. Experimonts in brooding suggestthat this import can eventually be mot by home production. Work on improve-ment of hill pastures would alnost certainly reveal an important potentialfor development, but, as in the case of cattle, the comparativoly Easybrooding experiments at Government farms arc recoiving more attention thanthe more difficult quostions of management and nutrition under the condition-applying to extensive development. It has boon demonstrated that there isconsiderable scope for increasing carcass weights of native shoop.

40. In sharp contrast with cattle, the poultry population is relativelylow, only one-third of a bird -er head of population. Egg consumption perannum is said to be only four per person. Production of poultry products bymodern commercial methods is fraught with financial risk, particularly intropical countries. In India a few cormnorcial projects in torporato hillclimates would usefully icet urban needs, but the greatest scope for develop-ment is in the increase in number and improvement in quality of the low-costscavenging fowl population of the villages, which is such an importantcontributor to human nutrition in many countries. That it is not Co inIndia is probably due to the aversion to taking life, giving latitude topredators such as rats, jackals and foxes, and these must be dealt withbefore any breeding and propagation policies can have extensive effect.

AG?ICULTURAL C-UE]DIT AN.D CCOPE.RTIVES

50. It is estimated that 700 of the total agricultural credit is pro-vided by money-lenders and 20% by merchants and landlords. Only 3% is pro-vided by cooperative societies and a similar amount directly by Government.Land reforms having reduced the position of the landlord as a source ofcredit, the need for institutional credit is increased. Without it thegroat majority of farmers will be unable to take much advantage of improved

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techniques. The picture of hopeless resignation to indebtedness has changedsince the rise in agricultural prices induced by the second world war. Itis estimated that the actual debt is much the same as pro-war, i.e. aboutone-quartor, in terms of valuo, of what it used to be. There is now amore positive approach to borrowing, and, if plans for provision of creditfacilities are successful, institutional agricultural credit for productivepurposes should rapidly increase at the expense of the more costly privateborrowing.

Taccavi Loans.

51. Since 1883 Government funds have boon available on loan for landimprovemont (up to twenty years) and for seasonal purposes. Under thestimulus of the Grow More Food Canpaign the use of taccavi loans for purchaseof fertilisers and improved seed has been greatly extended and concessionalrates of interest arc char7ed. Responsibility for the granting of Loans upto Rs. 2,000 lies with the District Collector who has limited powers ofdel3gation of authority to subordinates to issue loans for smaller amounts.Security of land or other immovable proporty is usually required and this,coupled with formalities and shortage of authorisod staff, has restrictodthe loans to the logalistically credit-worthy, and to these among t-enwho succeedod in gotting their applications processed. The advent of theNational Extension Service staff has made possible a more liberal policy,including provision of small unsecured loans for seasonal credit. Phesize of the allotment made for the purpose in the budgets of the StatoGovernments may operate as a linitation, and the State Bank of India ismaking increasing provision for credit to State Governments for agriculturalcredit, includin,, taccavi loans. No continuing data for the amount oftaccavi loans are available, but the total sanctioned in 1953/54, by 26out of the 29 States, was Rs. 205.4 million. The All-India Rural CreditSurvey describes taccavi as "the ill-Performcd disbursoment of inadequatemonies by an ill-suited agency". Nevertheless, it is a useful tool avail-able to the National Extension Service until the cooporative credit systemcan be extended, and it has been the moans of promoting the use of fortili-sers, which are largoly distributed as taccavi loans in kind..

Cooperative Credit.

52. Since the establishmont of the cooperative movement in 1904progress has been very uneven and has genorally depended on the devotionand enthusiasm of a few individuals. The All-India Rural Credit Surveynotes that "The failure of cooperative credit is explicable in terms ofthe total impracticability of any attempt to combine the very weak in com-petition with the very stron... The problem is not so much the reorganiza-tion of cooperative credit as of the creation of new conditions in whichit can operate effectively and for the benefit of the weaker... The forcesof transformation have to be at least as powerful as those which are soughtto be counteracted." The policy is therefore now directed towards activeGovernment partnership in cooperatives. Although this may vitiate ohe

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educative value of the cooperative principle it should provide an effectivesystem for getting credit to the smaller fnrmers, provided that dependablesupervisory staff in sufficient numbers can be trained and are given ade-quate discretionary powers.

53. In 195/55 the advances granted by various types of primary creditinstitutions were:-

Rs. millionAgricultural credit societies 354.8Grain banks 3.9Primary land mortgage banks 14.5

In the Second Five-Year Plan the target for provision for cooperative creditis Rs. 2,250 million, as compared with Rs. 430 million in April, 1955. Thediversion of this sum into appropriate usage will necessitate an administra-tive effort that may be impossible of attainment despite the envisagedexpansion of the National Extonsion Service and the training scheme forcooperative staff sponsored by the Reserve Bank of India.

Cooperative Societies.

54 The following data show the statistical position for the year er:L1g30th. June, 1954:

Primary Agricultural Credit Societies

Number 126,954Membership 5,849,380

Loans advanced Rs. 296.4 millionWorking capital Rs. 544,1 1

Grain Banks

Number 7,865Hembership 644,116

Loans advanced Rs. 3,5 millionJorking capital Rs. 17.8 "

Primary Agrlicultural Non-Credit Societies

Number 30,306HIembership 2,511,386

Value of goods received Hs. 312.0 millionValue of goods sold Rs. 337.4 "Working capital Rs. 215.5 "

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5$. The four States of Andhra, Bombay, Madras and Uttar Pradash accountfor nearly 75% of the membership. Credit societies continue to increase,to somo extent by conversion of non-credit societies, which tend to de-crease. Many of the societies exist in little more than name, and super-vision is often limited to audit. There are however many examples of activesocieties serving a useful purpose. The sugar cane societies, based onsugar factories, regulate flow of cane to the mill and organize supply offertiliser to the growers. A striking example of effective cooperation isprovided by the Kaira District Cooperative 1'ilk Producers' Union, withheadquarters at Anand in Bombay State. This is a union of over 60 villagesocieties with a total membership of about 20,000. The Union collactsbuffalo milk over an area of 600 square miles. With few oxceptions themembers are small farmers with only one or two buffaloes in milk. Withoutorganisation they would be at the mercy of middlemen. The Union has itsown pasteurising pleat and Sends the milk for sale through the BombayMilk Scheme. With financial aid from the Govemment of Bombay the Unionhas set up processing plant to make economic use of seasonal surplases.Needless to say, this remarkable achievement was not attained withoutconsiderable Government sponsorship, and its success has doubtless con-tributed to the decision to foster cooperatives by State partnership whereappropriate.

$6. To facilitate the collection of milk in the Kaira Distri2t thearea was accorded priority in execution of its village road program, so ithas achieved two of the essentials to agricultural development: motortransport and market organisation. A vast improvement in these two facili-ties is required if the avorage farmer is to have inducement to producefor sale a surplus to his own requirement. At present the price to theproducer in the village is, in the case of most agricultural commolities,very low compared with that to the consumer in the towns. Two tho-isandmarketing societies are included in the Second Plan, but a hundred timesthis number are needed.

57. Cooperation is either necessary or beneficial in many as-ects ofrural life and agricultural operations. It does not, however, follow thatcooperative farms, which are under consideration, are desirable. In Indiait seems that loyalty to the family is far stronger than loyalty to thecommunity, and it is doubtful if farms run on communal or collective lineswould be generally successful.

THE COUNI TY DEVELOPEIT PiiO3R1A

$8. The determination to do something constructive for the impoverishedrural masses led the Government to embark on the Community Development Programin 1952. In conception, if not yet in accomplishment, it is perha3s themost dramatic feature of the First and Second Plans. It owes much to theAmerican belief in the value of extonsion work. The Ford Foundation tookpart in shaping the scheme and it gavo a load in establishing pilot projects

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and training villago workers, which it is still doing. The U.S. Governmentmade a grant of Rs. 35 million for equipping the first 55 projects; it hassince made other grants and has provided extension experts und.er the Indo-U.S. Technical Cooperation Program.

59. The scheme started in 55 Community Development Blocks. The aim isto bring progressive influences to bear simultaneously on all aspects ofvillage life. A block covers an area of about 100 villages. The DistrictCollGctor is normally the chief executive officer, and he is assisted by aProject Executive Officer in charge of three blocks each supervised by aBlock Development Officer. In each block are exports in social education,agriculture, animal husbandry, cooperation, public health and perhaps civilengineering, and ten Village Level Workers on whose efficiency the successof the scheme depends. In practice, staffing is governed by availabilities.It has in particular been difficult up to the present to recruit a sufficientnumber of women for domestic education, health and midwifery, but noro womenare now coming forward for training. Where departmental staff were alreadyworking in the area they were put under the Block Development Officer (ortransferred to other duties, according to the attitude of their departments.)

60. Expansion of the program has been rapid. It was the intentionthat after throe years or so of "intensive development" as Communioy Projocts,blocks would then be served by a less intensive National Extension Sorvicewhich would be a continuing feature of the public service. Actually, however,under the pressure for expansion, the diluter National Extension Service wentahead, and as the staff situation permitted National Extension Service Blockswere selected for three years of Intensive Development on the Community Projectpattern. The coverage to date is given as:

No. of No. of Population,Blocks Villages Millions

Community Project orIntensive DevelopmentBlocks

1952/53 167 25,264 16.41953/54 53 7,693 4.01955/56 (converted) 152 15,200 10.0

1956/57 (converted) 185 18,500 12.2

National ExtensionService Blocks

1953/54 30 3,000 2.01954/55 1L2 14,200 9.31955/56 258 25,800 17.01956/57 172 17,200 11.3

Total 1,159 126,857 82.2

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It looks as though this assessment of coverage is affected by doublecounting as regards the "converted" Community Project Blocks, which werepresumably first recorded under National Extension Service Blocks. Ifthis is so the totals should be:-

No. of No. of Population,Blocks Villages Millions

822 93,157 60.0

In American experience the maximum number of families that an extensionworker can effectively influence is 500. On this basis the 11,590 JillageLevel Workers should be dealing with about 6 million families instead ofthe 16 million quoted above. In view of the greater density of the agri-cultural population in India maybe the American basis is not applicable,but there seems to be a probability that the extension workers are iealingwith too many people too lightly to have much effect, or more wisely, theyare dealing with a far smaller number of people than is indicated by thestatistics.

61. The achievements of a project which depends for its success onthe morale of its staff and the response of the people are understaadablywritten up in enthusiastic terms. The statement of achievements given inTable IV may be exaggerated and certainly includes departmental and otheractivities that would have happened without the Community DevelopmentProgram. Undoubtedly much useful work has been accomplished, and objectivesurveys show a sigaificant increase in crop yields in the areas covered bythe program. The increase is sometimes put as high as 25-30% and is largelyascribed to the organization of supplies of fertiliser and improved seed.There has been substantial development of earth roads, and structural im-provements within the villages. The degree of success achieved may besurprising to those with past experience of attempts to rouse the villagersto self-help. It must be attributed to the psychological and moral stimulusof realization of independence, accompanied by at least partial relief fromsome of the oppressive features of the former social structure.

62. The dangers of embarking on so large a program at such spaed wererecognised, but arguments in favor of starting slowly and thoroughly wereoutweighed by the political and psychological advantages of achieving andpublicising a country-wide scheme as soon as possible. Up to the presentthe policy appears to be justified, but disappointment may result to bothstaff and villagers if tangible services fail to keep pace with newlycreated demands, or if the necessarily hurried staff training proves in-adequate.

63. The program is kept under constant review, and evaluation reportscontain imiuch sound and constructive criticism. kmong the more importantobservations are:-

(a) Over-anxiety to show tangible results has led to concentration onphysical achievements. Inspiration and training towards communityself-management through village councils and cooperatives havebeen neglected, with danger of discontinuation of effort when theintensive phase ends.

(b) Without the education in democracy implied above, the benefits ofextension work will be mainly enjoyed by the conparatively in-fluential and well-to-do.

(c) The dual control of subject-matter specialists, partly by thetechnical departments and partly by the Block Development Officers,presents difficulties that are difficult of satisfactory solution.

(d) Control through the District Collector has led to a "revenueapproach" in some districts. It is difficult, however, to seehow else the program could have been launched so effectively, andmost Collectors have welcomed the liberalising of their functionsand have avoided an authoritarian approach.

(e) Insufficient thought has been given to problems of maintenance ofnew works, particularly after completion of the intensive phase,Disheartenment may result if, through lack of surveyors, communa..efforts in road-building are spoiled by failure to take drainageinto account.

(f) There is need for more research into all aspects of improvement ofvillage life, and better interchange of information between re-search units and field workers.

64. To the extent that resources are limited it would be logical atthis period, when increased agricultural output is so urgently required,to concentrate effort and services in the areas of greatest potential forrapid increase in productivity. For example, an area newly developed byirrigation, where the farmers need guidance in new techniques and wherefertilisers and good seeds can have full effect, would give a far greaterreturn for a concentrated effort than would a far larger area under rain-fed cultivation.

65. It is the intention to attain country-wide coverage by the end ofthe Second Plan period, and large-scale training programs have boon organisedfor the several categories of personnel. An increase of about 200,000 workersis required in addition to the 80,000 serving the present program. It isintended that of the total coverage not less than h0% shall be in the in-tensive phase, i.e. Community Project Blocks, and the remaindor shall bein the less intensive phase of National Extension Service Blocks. Thesheer magnitude of the task of training workers on this scale for an ad-mittedly difficult task (how experienced, one wonders, are the trainersof the trainees?) and of stepping up supporting services for every village

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in India fills one with misgivings. On this program, more than on any othersingle activity, depends the vitality of rural India and therofore theeconomic and political future of the country. The launching jf the programis itself an act of faith that inspires hope for its success.

CONCLUSIONS

66. It is not reasonable to ascribo to the several factors reviewedin the forogoing pages possible individual contributions to increased pro-duction. They are inter-actionary and complementary, and require to bekept in balance. To push fortilisers, for example, too far ahead cf controlof weeds, posts and diseases, or to push superior crop varieties too farahead of bettor soil and water relationship, or to push extension workahead of supporting services, would be as wasteful as to push imprcvCd breedsof cattle ahead of management. Proper application of knaown technicus, inconjunction with the possible expansion of irrigation and the cultivatedarea, could increase India's agricultural output four or five-fold. Bythe time that has been achieved new techniques will have boon evolved andthe way will be open for further progress. Results of the crop competi-tions organised for the Grow More Food Campaign show yields about seventimes higher than the local average. India's yields are at present amongthe loTest in the world. With the labor force available they could beamong the highest. The example of Japan has not passed unnoticed.Dr. S. R. Sen, India's leading agricultural economist, notes: "The emphasisin Japan is on maximizing yield per unit of land by substituting land asmuch as possible by capital and labor. Although production mad distributionare on a highly individualistic basis the state has provided so mary facili-ties by way of highly developed transport and markting organisations,easy credit, efficient research and extension services, etc., that theyields per unit in Japan are among the highost in the world."

67. There seems to be no reason why expansion of output at the rateof about 3% per annum should not continue for many years. There is a greatdeal of scopo for progress that is technically easy but is retarded bypoverty and ignorance. As progress becomes technically more difficult therate will be maintained by the increasing power of educational forces thatwill develop more slowly. A hundrod years from now there will still beplenty of scope for further increase.

68. Among the many requirements for agricultural development the foro-most is drafting the best brains and personalities into the service ofagriculture and giving those trained technicians the responsibility forgotting on with the job.

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II. First Five Year Plan, 1951-1956

69. At the beginning of the First Plan period India's food grainproduction was some 6'P short of internal requirements, imports were ex-pensive and there was need to increase the per capita consumption as wellas to provide for population increase. Self-sufficiency had been attainedin sugar, but consumption was expected to increase. The per capite con-sumption of edible oils was considered too low and it was also desired toincrease exoortable surpluses. It was also highly desirable to recduce theimports of raw jute and of long and medium staple cotton by stepping uphome production. A summary of achievements in relation to the targets isgiven in Table II. In relation to the targets the achievements are satis-factory except in the case of jute, which suffered a reduction in areaafter the fall in price in 195:2/3. The current sugar production is saidto be sufficient to meet internal needs, so the demand has increased moreslowly than expected.

Crop Statistics.

70. It is admitted that there are difficulties in the way of obtainingaccurate statistics of area and production. Nevertheless, it is claimedthat the present basis of assessment has not changed during the First Planperiod to an extent that invalidates comparisons between the years. Othe-,observers suggest that the tendency to understate production of food graineduring the years of procurement has been replaced by a tendency to exaggeratethe effects of action taken under the Plan. It seems to be generally ad-mitted that there is a tendency to underestimate in a good year and to over-estimate in a bad year.

Monsoon Effoects.

71. Those who ascribe most of the First Plan increases to a favorableseries of monsoonssarc outnumbered by those who will not credit the weatherwith more than a small proportion of the increases and ascribe the majorpart to human efforts and increased potential. Unfortunately there is noanalysis of production according to climatological zones. Floods End ub-timely heavy rain probably cause even more loss of crop than does drought,and the monsoons are never good or bad over the whole country. Because ofthe wide range of conditions, Indian production of food grains and oilseeds is unlikely to gain or lose more than 12- 54 from monsoon effects.There is no doubt that the monsoon in the final year of the plan was nobetter than that in the base year, and that the difference in yield betweenthe two years was due to human effort.

Expansion of Area.

72. During the First Plan period. some 2.9 million acres was reclaimedfrom forest, scrub or kans-grass by the Central and State Tractors Organiza-tions. The increase in yield from kans-grass treatment is assessed at only

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two or three maunds of grain per acre (most of the land being already undercultivation) but much of the uncultivated land reclaimed is highly pro-ductive, and 120 of the increase in yield is ascribed to the work 3fGovernment tractor organisations.

73. Private endeavor is thought to have brought an additional 16.2million acres under cultivation. Some of this land is marginal and sus-ceptible to drought, but its contribution to the increase in food grainproduction in a normal year is assessed at 4O%, easily the most importantindividual contribution.

Major Irrigation.

74. The area served by major irrigation schemes has increased by6.3 million acres during the First Plan period. 1/ The figures must beregarded as approximate, and the degree of irrigation ranges from a fullwater supply permitting continuous cropping to a thinly spread supply thatis insufficient adequately to supplement rainfall in drought years. Ingeneral the major irrigation schemes provide supplemental water for a largearea of kharif and winter crops, and a limited quantity of summer water forrelatively small areas of perennials such as sugar-cane, and of forage andvegetable crops.

75. The increase is not entirely net gain, for some areas (a veryminor proportion of the whole) have gone out of cultivation because irriga-tion brought a damaging rise in the water-table, and there has been somereplacement of minor irrigation. The lessons learnt are being applied, forexample in lining canals where seepage would be harmful and leaving themunlined where seepage would usefully contribute to underground supplics.

76. No figures are available for the cropping pattorn of the irrigatedareas, but it is thought that extension of major irrigation during the Planperiod is responsible for 135 of the increased food-grain production.

Minor Irrigation.

77. This includes tube wells, shallow wells, tanks, pumps, etc. Tankirrigation is highly developed in Madras and well irrigation in UttarPradesh, to the extent, in each case, of more than one-third of the wholecountry's tank or well irrigation respectively. The area under minor irriga-tion in 19-5/01 was about 30.8 million acres. During the First Plan periodit increased by 10.3 million acres. I4here the underground water supply isassured, well irrigation offers better facilities for intensive cultiva-tion than are obtainable from most of the canal schemes, but where re-plenishment depends on rainfall (as alwa,rs in the case of tanks) a lightmonsoon is damaging and two successive light monsoons are disastrous, soon the whole major irrigation is regarded as giving a more assurc returnthan minor irrigation. Hinor irrigation works are vulnerable to deroliction

1/ Area under canal irri.ation in 1950/1 was 20.7 million acres.

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through inadequate maintenance services, and it is doubtful that the in-crease in area quoted is a not figure. Tionty fou2 percent of the increasein food-grain production is attributed to minor irrigation.

FOrtilisers.

78. It is doubtful that during the Plan period there has been anincrease in use of organic manures to affect production appreciably. Inparts of the southern half of the country, where fuel shortage is lessacute, manuring with cattle duig is assiduously practiced. In the hotterand drier areas it must be assumed that dung will be a necessary fuel forlong years to cone, and compostable residues, both urban and rural, cansuffice for only a small proportion of manurial needs. 1W4herever soilmoisture is adequate the factor keeping yields down to their present lowlevel is generally lack of plant nutrients, so the stress laid on the arti-ficial fertiliser program was well placed.

79. The consumption of sulphate of ammonia increased from, about275,000 tons in 194)/50 to slightly over 610,000 tons in 1955/56. Df thislatter figure, about 100,000 tons was allocated to plantation crops butotherwise the destination of the fertiliser is not known. Sugar caae, withsupply organised through the growers cooperatives, may take 200,000 tons,cotton may take 100,000 tons, tobacco, jute and other cash crops may drawsubstantially on supplies, leaving relatively little for food crops. Sixpercent of the increase in food crops is attributed to the use of artificialfertilisers, corresponding to a consumption of armonium sulphate of about250,000 tons.

Further details regarding fertiliser consumption are givea inTable II.

Improved Seed.

80. Some of the commercial crops, notably cotton and sugar caae, havelong been subject to a continuous process of varietal improvement by dis-semination from the research centers. The area under varieties better thanthose of fifty years ago is, perhaps, of the order of 70%. The area underthe latest products of the plant breeder is of necessity always small but,sponsored by comorcial interests, is always increasing.

81. Varietal improvement of food crops has also received the attentionof research workors for many years. The Grow Aore Food Campaign directedattention to the multiplication and distribution of the recommended seeds.Achievements during the Plan period were:-

-29-Distribution of Improved Cereal Seeds

Thousand Tons Percentage ofPaddy Wheat Other Total total seed sown

1951/52 37.4 19..4 4.1 60.9 1.71952/53 32.8 1;.5 4.3 56.6'1953/54 27.7 26.8 3.8 58.3195 /55 34.5 28.0 5.0 68.81955/56 target 60.8 57.5 4.3 127.0 3.0

82. Better seed is expected to increase yields by 10-1"/. One ton ofbetter seed should produce a yield increase of two tons. The Grow -ore FoodEnquiry Cormittee (1952) noted that the area sown with better seed was sub-stantially loss than it should have been in relation to seed issues. On theother hand there was doubtless a substantial saving of good seed by thefarmers for subsequent sowing, and private distribution of it to neighbors.Only 20 of the increase in food grains during the First Plan period iscredited to improved seeds.

Improved Hethods of Cultivation.

83. It is many years since research stations evolved better implementsfor the small farmer. Their adoption has been handicapped by their costand the lack of spares and survicing. Enhanced attention to peasant t simplements has made no contribution to First Plan increases. On the otherhand there is a slow but increasing appreciation of the advantages of line-sowing, which, in contrast to broadcasting, permits some measure of woed-control by bull-dram implements.

84. The Japanese method of rice cultivation has afforded a specifictopic for extension workers. To many Indian farmers it is not esseatiallynew, but consists in a series of improvements to old practices, notably

a) eliminating light seeds by flotation in brine instead of bywinnowing;

b) heavily manuring tho seed-bed, which may also be raised to facili-tate lifting of seedlings;

c) applying more fertiliser in the field, up to 100 lbs. nitrogenper acre;

d) setting one or two plants per hole instead of four to eigAt;

o) planting in straighter rows to facilitate inter-tillage.

The method can be appliud only where water supply is abundant, i.e. whereyields would in any case be higher than the country's average. It demandsmore labor, and cash or credit facilities for procurement of fertiliser.The area sown by this method in the last year of the Plan period is estimated

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to be 1.6 million acres and the resultant increase, at about 12 maunds peracre, should be about 700,000 tons paddy, equivalent to 470,000 tons riceor 0.9% of the base year production of food grains.

Community Development.

85. Agricultural services, of varying degrees of intensity and of-ficiency, have been long established in some of the States, and there aremany community development schemes of long standing, some of them highlysuccessful, but the vast majority of the rural population has had littleencouragement towards material or spiritual progress. In 1952 the Govern-ment embarked on a country-wide Community Development Programme to affectall aspects of village life. Community Development Projects are the moreintensive form and the National Extension Sorvice the diluter form of thisfundamental education program, which, by the end of 1956, nominally coversone-fifth of the rural population.

86. It is doubtful that during the time available in the First Planperiod the Community Development Programme has had much substantiaL effecton agricultural production, although a useful start has boon made. A listof achievements is given in Table IV, but it should be noted that the listincludes work that would have been carried out privately or through agenciesother than the Community Development Programme had that not come iatoexistence.

Summary.

87. The Statistical and Economic Adviser to the Ministry of Food andAgriculture suggests that the increased potential developed during theFirst Plan period nay be reviewed as follows:-

Increased production of food grainsMillion tons

Good Average BadSource of increased potential Honsoon honsoon Qonsoon

(1) Major irrigation 1.5 1.3 1.2(2) Minor irrigation 2.4 2.4 1.8(3) Land roclaimod by Centro and State

Tractor Organisations 1.5 1.2 .9(4) Land reclaimed by other means,

mostly private enterprise 5.7 h.0 1.5(5) Fortilisers .6 .57 .4(6) Better soods .2 .2 .2

11.9 9.67 .0Say 12 10 6

Production potential in base year 58 54 50Production potential in 1955/56 70 64 56

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It may be that some of the figures, notably item (4), arc on the high side,having taken insufficient account of concurrent reductions. Moreover, onlyitem (1) and parts of items (2), (3) and (4) can be regarded as permanent.Item (2) is largely dependent upon maintenance services, which are not yetadequately developed, and items (3) and (4) are to some extent dependentupon follow-up activities.

88. It may be thought that insufficient credit for the increased pro-duction has been given to the farmer himself who, by greater effort withinhis old limitations, may have been largely responsible. In villages thathave never heard of Community Development the farmers, doubtless becauseof the lightening of their burdens by the reforms of recent years, appearto be keen and industrious. "....extension agents who thought that theywere fighting an uphill battle against popular prejudice and apathy actuallydiscovered that they were proaching to the converted, almost to the im-

patient." 1/

III, The Second Five Year Plan, 1956-1961

Objectives.

89. The Plan aims at an increaso in production of food grains suffi-cient to provide both for the expected increases in population and in percapita consumption0 It is also intended to meet the expanding requirementsof "the raw materials needed for a growing industrial economy and also to

make available larger exportable surpluses of agricultural commodities.'The principal targets are set out below:-

1/ Evaluation Report on the Second Year's Working of Community Projects;Sumnary, p. 19.

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Second Plan Production Targets

Est. 1/ Target__955/6 1960/61 Increase $ Incroase

hillion tonsFood grains 65.0 75.0 10.0 15Hajor oilseeds 5.5 7.0 1.5 27Sugar cano (gur) 5.8 7.1 1.3 22

Million bales 2/

Cotton 4.2 5.5 1.3 31Jute 4.0 5.0 1.0 25

Thousand tons

Coconut oil 130 210 80 62Areca nut 81 )9 18 22Tobacco 250 250 - -Black pepper 26 32 6 23Cashew nut 60 80 20 33

Million pounds

Tea 644 700 56 9

1/ As shown in SecondPlan document. For later estimates sea Table I."/ Cotton 392 lbs; jute 1400 lbs.

Irrigation.

90. The increase in area irrigated by major works during the FirstPlan period was 6.3 million acres. During the Second Plan period an in-crease of 12 million is expected, of which 9 million will result fromprojects started during or before the First Plan period.

91. Minor irrigation, which expanded to irrigate an additional 10.3million acres in the First Plan period, is expected to cover a further9 million acres by the end of the Second Plan period. It is not y3t clearto what extent land proviously irrigated by minor works will fall withinmajor irrigation schemes, but by analogy with the First Plan, whera thenet increase from 6.3 + 10.3 is given as 15, it may be assumed that thenet increase will be about 19 million acres.

92. Information on cropping patterns on the areas to come under irriga-tion is lacking. There is no directed cropping, so farmers' needs, producer

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prices and water availabilities decide the pattern. The expansion of irriga-tion offers an assured 7/ or so increase in food grains, oilseeds and cotton,and substantially greater increases if fertilisers are used. In West Bengaland Bihar the irrigation developments will facilitate expansion of luto ifother considerations permit. The over-all acreage of sugar-cane is notlimited so much by water shortage as by policy and processing facilities,but the extension of irrigation will clearly make it possible to grow canein areas which have hitherto been unable to do so.

Fertilisers.

93. The consumption of sulphate of ammonia in 1955/56 was about610,000 tons. The use of other nitrogenous chemicals was negligible. Duringthe Second Plan period it is intended to increase production of sulphate ofammonia and also to manufacture urea, ammonium nitrate - sulphate andcalcium ammonium nitrate. It is intended that consumption in 1960/61 shallbe:-

Thousand tonsSulphate of amdonia 640Urea 142Afmonium sulphate - nitrate 452Calcium ammonium nitrate 326

1/ Figures obtained in June 1956, later than those given in the SecondPlan document. Approximate nitrogen contents are 20, 45, 26 and 33%respectively.

In terms of sulphate of ammonia this is equivalent to over two million tons,an increase of 2h40 over 1955/56.

94. By the end of the First Plan period two-thirds of the ammoniumsulphate requirement was hone-produced, and plans are well advanced forincreasing production of sulphate of ammonia and developing production ofother nitrogenous fGrtilisers so that by the end of the Second Plan periodimports may be reduced despite the greatly increased consumption.

95. The Plan postulates an increase of 2.5 million tons of food grainsfrom increased use of fertilisers. According to the yardstick in commonuse this implies an application of 1.25 million tons of sulphate of ammonia.

A maund _/ of sulphate of anmonia costs the cultivator about Rs. 16 and

*/ 82-2/7 lbs.

the average response is two maunds of grain worth, to the grower, aboutRs. 20. His investment in fertiliscr is exposed to the risk of drDught,flood, post and discase, and the prospective increase offers insufficientincentive. The value of the increase should be at least doublu th: costof the fortiliser, At present price levels the advantage of fertiLisinggrain crops is more to the national interest than to that of the individualfarmor. A rise in food grain prices would be contrary to policy; to sub-sidize fortilisers for food crops in distinction to those used for cashcrops would be impracticable. It is therefore to be expected that thebulk of the fertiliser will be used on cash crops until price levelschange. The planners hope that by 1960/61 the ox-factory price of sulphateof annonia will be Rs. 175 par ton as against the present price of Rs. 270.

96. If there is difficulty in getting the fertilisor applied to foodgrains, how much can reasonably be expected to be used on other crDps by1960/61, in view of distributional difficulties, consorvatism, poverty andthe impediments to rapid oxpansion of credit facilities? Here is a guess:-

Million acres Fertiliser, tonsTotal hanured Per Acre Total

Sugar-cane 4 3 .2 600,0j0Oilseods 30 3 *05 150,0JOCotton 20 4 .1 00,0JOJute 1.5 .5 .1 501joTea, Coffee 1 .2 .2 100,0JOTobacco 1 .5 .1 So,AJOTruck crops, etc. 50,iJO

1,000,000

If this picture is not too conservative - and it shows a rapid advance onpresent performance - there will be at least 600,000 tons of ammoniumsulphate (or equivalent) to be used on food grains if the envisaged ferti-liser procurement is not to prove excessive.

97. There is little doubt that of the food-grain area of 270 millionacres some 100 million acres could use about 10 million tons of fertiliserwith great benefit to the balance of payments and some over-all gain tothe farming community. In order, however, to got even the relativelytrifling quantity of 600,000 tons applied to food grains there must be:-

a) a fortilisor:grain price ratio to the farmer of 1:1 by weight,or preferably 4:5;

b) an adequate distribution and storage system;c) a rapid expansion in credit facilities.

The planners' confidence regarding b) and c) is not wholly shared by themission. The National Extension Service is expected to serve as the credit

agency, but present practice allows credit only to the credit-worthy,

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thereby excluding the majority of farmers. Establishment of a system ofsupervised credit to farmers without security is of the greatest importance,but it will take time and is unlikely to have much effect before the endof the Second Plan period. No suggestions have been put fcrward on point a)save the reduction in price mentioned in paragraph 9h. A price to thefarmer of Rs. 12 per maund for fertiliser (corresponding to Rs. 175 per tonex-factory) and Rs. 15 per maund for grain would satisfy the conditions.Attainment of the reduction in fertiliser price is likely to be gradual,so the prospects for use of fertiliser on food grains must depend in thefirst instance on higher producer prices, and then on distribution andcredit.

98. On balance it appears that the fertiliser program is ambitious,yet the need for fertiliser is so great and the quantity planned is sosmall in relation to the ultimate requirement that it is difficult to be-lieve that use and purchasers will not be found for the target procurement.Two million tons of sulphate of ammonia is no more than a minimal cressingfor the planned increase in area under irrigation.

99. Towards the end of the First Plan period the value of phcsphaticmanures was becoming increasingly appreciated. On phosphate-deficientsoils the addition of superphosphate, in the presence of adequate nitrogen,gives an increase in yield equal to that induced by a nitrogenous c.ressingon nitrogen-deficient soils. The Second Plan provides for the consumptionof 720,000 tons of home-produced suporphosphate by 1960/61.

ImDroved Seeds.

100. The dissemination of better seeds has been retarded by lack offacilities for multiplication, distribution and credit. It is now plannedthat every National Extension Service Block shall have its own seed-farm.Acquisition of the land and establishment of seed-farm management till takesome time, and it is unlikely that research centres are immediately readyto supply sufficient stocks of seed of all appropriate crops suited toevery locality. Nevertheless by the end of the Second Plan period theimpact of the program should be such as to effect a one or two percentincrease in the yield of most crops, a trifle compared with the part thatimproved varieties can eventually contribute to increased agriculturalproduction.

Improved Agricultural Practices.

101. Improvements in this field will be slow, because of the farmers'limited resources. Enforcement of phyto-sanitary practices might sub-stantially increase the yield of cotton, but there is no indication thatthis will be done. It is planned to increase the area under the Japanesemethod of rice cultivation from 1.6 to 4 million acres. This presumesthat the cultivators will buy the fertiliser. The resulting increase wouldbe about one million tons paddy. (1955/56 estimated yield of paddy isabout 38 million tons.)

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Animal Husbandry.

102. Little progress towards the solution of the problem of numbers inrelation to forage supply is likely to be achieved during the Second Planperiod. The ban on slaughtering adopted by most of the States was a re-trograde step. The First Plan aimed at establishing gosodans (concentrationcamps) for 320,000 cattle, 0.2% of the country?s cattle population. In theevent it was found possible to provide accommodation, with considerabledifficulty, for only one-fortieth of the envisaged number. The Second Planloss ambitiously aims to provide gosodans for only 30,000 head. It isclear that herein lies no solution to the problem of India's surplus cattlepopulation. The hopeful aspect lies in the villagers' acceptance of apolicy of sterilization of inferior females, as well as of scrub bulls.

Only 3 or SO of the cultivated area is at present sawn to forage crops andthere is little prospect of diversion of more land to this purpose on anyappreciable scale. Present forago supplies, including crop residues, areestimated to fall short of requirements by 40D'. Breeding policies can havenegligible effect on production while malnutrition predominates.

103. The Aarey Dairy and the Anand Cooperative Scheme, both supplyingBombay with milk, are magnificently conceived and executed, bringing cleanmilk to the city-dweller and profit to the producer. The Second Plan aimsat organizing a further thirty-six urban supply schemes. If achieved, thesewill not only be of great local benefit but will surely contribute to thedevelopment of an economic approach towards the cattle population problem.

lo. The Second Plan wisely avoids specification of quantitativetargets and describes long-term programs of staff training,rosoarch, breeding

& disease control. An exception is mention of a target of per capita avail-ability of eggs. It is hoped to double the present low average productionof 50 eggs per hen per annum, and to raise the per capita availability ofeggs from four to twenty per annum by the end of the Plan period. Thisseems to be ambitious in relation to the time available, but should beattainable in the fairly near future.

Community Development, Credit and Cooperatives.

10, It is intended that the National Extension Service shall attain100% coverage by 1960/61 and that 40," of the blocks shall be under theintensive phase known as Development Projects. As these services are tobe responsible for agricultural extension, the expansion of agriculturalcredit facilities and development of the cooperative movement they are ofvital importance to agriculture. Good basic training is only a fund.ationto the development of workers in the difficult fields of extension, creditsupervision and cooperation. They become effective only with exparience.The expansion of the Community Development Programme will therefore havefar greater impact on agriculture after the Plan period than during it,although the additional workers will contribute towards fulfillmeat ofthe Plan targets.

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Food Grains.

106. It is expected that the planned increase of 10 million tons offood grains will comprise 3 to 4 million tons of rice, 2 to 3 million tonsof wheat, 2 to 3 million tons of other cereals and 1.5 to 2 million tonsof pulses. The 10 million ton increase is tentatively ascribed to thefollowing agencies:-

Million tons1) Major irrigation 2.42) Hinor irrigation 1.83) Fortilisers and manures 2.54) Improved seeds 1.05) Land reclamation and development .86) Improved practices 1,5

10.0

As already explained, there are doubts regarding the readiness of farmorsto use fortilisers on food crops at present prices. If the fertiliserprogram can be carried out as planned the 10 million ton target shoald beattained and may be exceeded.

107. The First Plan period saw the reduction of grain imports fromabout five million tons per annum at the beginning of the period to lessthan a million tons per annum in each of the last two years. The SecondPlan documnt estimates total food grain requirement in 1960/61 to be70.5 million tons at the present rate of consumption. Attainment of aproduction of 75 million tons would therefore leave a margin for in.reasein per capita consumption and for underestimation of the rate of increasein population. (The Plan document postulates a requirement of 75 mlliontons based on an increase in per capita consumption from 17.2 to 18.3ounces per adult.) It appears that self-sufficiency has almost been attainedin all but below-average years. Government stocks are low at presoat andarrangements are in hand for the import of 2.4 million tons of rice fromBurma and 3.6 million tons of wheat from the U.S.A. Unless the monsoonsare unfavorable it seems unlikely that further imports of food grains willbe necessary during the Second Plan period.

Cash Crops.

108. The main agricultural commodities contributing to exports in

1954/55 were:-

Rupees % of allMillion exports

Tea 1,471 25.4Jute goods 1,244 21.5Cotton goods 670 11.4Vegetable oils and oilseeds 229 4.0Raw cotton and waste 20Hides, skins, wool, hair 17Spices 114 2.0obacco 111 1.9Cashew nuts 110 1.9All agricultural exports 4,523 76.7

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109. All the above enter substantially into internal trado. rhe mostimportant cash crops that are consumed wholly, or nearly so, within thecountry are sugar cane, coconut, arecanuts, coffee and rubber.

Tea.

110. No firm development program is included in the Plan, but mentionis made of a production target of 700 million pounds and an export targetof 500 million pounds, increases of about 10% over First Plan achi3vements.No doubt internal consumption will continue to increase, but expansion ofexports presumes successful competition in the fields of quality and price.Uncertainty regarding Government policy towards plantation owners and laboris deterring all but the wealthiest planters from a rational program oferadicating old bushes and replanting with new varieties of superior yieldand quality and also from investment in improved processing machinery.These factors, coupled with imposts, are blamed by planters, both Indianand British, for the rapid competitive development of tea in East Africa.The future export position of Indian tea is dependent not only on expandingoverseas demand but also on Government policy towards the tea-growingindustry.

Jute.

111. It is intended to raise production from 4.14 million bales (1955/56estimate) to 5 million bales by increasing the yield per acre from about2.6 to 3 bales. This is to be achieved by use of improved seed and bettercultural practices. It is also planned to improve the quality by improve-ment of rotting facilities and techniques. Both these objectives arepracticable, but in view of the difficulties of getting a multitude ofimpecunious producers to adopt improvements it seems more realistic toseek increased output from an increase in area. This will not be obtainedso much in the established jute-growing areas, where a high proportion ofthe land suitable for jute is already cropped with it, as in the new irrigatedareas developing in West Bengal and Bihar. Trials of jute in these areashave given promising results. Moreover superior rotting facilities will

be more easily obtainable in the canalised areas.

112. Expansion of jute production appears to be highly dependent onthe jute-rice price ratio. If the farmer's price for jute is not twicethe price that he has to pay for rice he will, as demonstrated in theFirst Plan period, reduce his jute area in favor of rice. On the wholethe prospects for expansion of jute production, while agriculturallypracticable, do not appear to be favorable.

Vegetable Oils and Oilseeds.

113. The Plan provides for the following expansion of production:-

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Thousand Tons1954/55 1960/61

Groundnuts 4,128 4,700Sesame 589 651Brassica 962 1,060Linseed 388 b28Castor 124 161

6,191 7,OO

1955/56 production may be about 5.7 million tons, against the First Plantarget of 5.5.

114. With the exception of castor, the oilseeds compete for land withfood grains and cotton, so the additional output must come from increasedyields per acre rather than additional acreage. The area planted to castor,which is grown on hilly and stony land unsuitable for other crops, vill notincrease much unless the price becomes more attractive, which seems unlikely.The development of irrigation will help the brassicas and linseed but willhave less effect on groundnuts and sesame. Sesame is eusceptible to bothshortage and excess of rain and it is difficult to foresee much increasein yield per acre. Groundnuts respond to good cultivation and manuringand much higher yields should eventually be attainable. On the whole thetargets for the crops specified seem over-ambitious and an increase ofabout 19" on the First Plan target, to about 6.6 million tons, appears tobe a more reasonable expectation.

115. In terms of oil, the Second Plan target requires an increase ofabout 390,000 tons of vegetable oils over the probable 1955/56 production,or 450,000 tons over the First Plan target. The cotton target for 1960/61

(5.5 million bales of 392 lbs.) postulates a production of cotton seed ofnearly two million tons. After deduction of sowing seed, there remains apotential extractable oil content of about 270,000 tons. There are nofirm data regarding the amount of cotton-seed oil extracted in India today,but it is thought to be in the neighborhood of 8,000 tons. Development offull utilization of cotton seed could make the following contribution:-

In terms of oil; thousand tons

First Plan target 1,65019% increase 315 1,965Cotton-seed oil, say 265

2,230

Second Plan target 2,100

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Without exploitation of cotton seed the export target of Rs. 20 millionfor vegetable oils is unlikely to be attained, particularly in view ofthe probable increase in internal demand, which may prove to be very re-sponsive to rising prosperity.

116. There appears to be a strong case for investigation of the invest-ment and managerial requirements of plant to extract oil from cotton seedby modern methods and to make full use of the residues. There would beprejudices to be overcome against the use of cotton-seed oil for culinarypurposes, and distribution of cotton seed and other cakes would be necessaryto replace the cotton seed now used as cattle feed. This question has beendiscussed at some length in FA0/56/3/1981 of March, 1956, which also pointsout the wastefulness of using cotton seed and oil cakes as fertilizer ina country that is so short of cattle feed as is India.

Cotton.

117. The 1960/61 target is 5.5 million bales, an increase of 31% overthe 195/6 figure of 4.2 quoted in the Second Plan document. The targetis not expressed in terms of area; it is intended that the increase shallmainly derive from increased yields per acre. The expansion of irrigationduring the Second Plan period should double the area of irrigated cotton,and this alone should increase production by nearly a million bales andwill also facilitate the attainment of another aim - a further (buo un-specified) increase in the proportion of long staple. The spread of disease-resistant and higher yielding varieties, the use of fertilisers and theadoption of pest and disease controls all offer a great potential for in-creasing and improving output. Unless there is imbalance between cottonprices and those of food crops the target should be comfortably attained.

118. Production of short staple and cotton waste for export are capableof expansion should the demand increase beyond the recent average of 50,000tons, which is not envisaged in the Second Plan document. Imports of superiorstaples are expected to continue at the level of about 120,000 tons. It maybe expected that the import will contain a highor proportion of 1-3/8" staplewith the increasing internal demand for superior cloth and with the increasinghome production of 1-l1P. Export of piece-goods is planned to rize from867 million yards in 19 4 and 747 million yards in 195 to 1,000 millionyards by 1960/61, which conflicts oddly with the statement made by the Indiandelegate to the International Cotton Advisory Committe on 11th. May, 1956:"In view of the decline in international trade it is very difficult to re-concile the desire of countries to increase cotton production and exports."

Hides, Skins, Wool, Hair.

119. Apart from breeding programs, no plans are described for improvingthe quality of the products or expanding internal use. There will always bea market for any exportable surplus. Exports are expected to continue at thepresent level.

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Spices.

120. Increasing competition is being met from other countries, but itshould be possible to maintain exports, if not to increase thcM. Specifically,it is planned to increase the production of black pepper from 26,000 to32,000 tons. As this is perhaps the most profitable crop to the farmer onthe Malabar coast the increase should be attainable.

Tobacco.

121. The Plan stresses improvement in quality rather than of quantity,which is sometimes excessive. Indian-grown Virginian is inferior to thatgrown in Africa and exports depend largely on the size of the African crop.Internal demand will doubtless increase, but the expansion of exports fromRs. 110 million in 1954 and 1955 to Rs. 170 million in 1960/61 must beconsidered doubtful.

Cashew nuts.

122, This indigenous tree occurs mainly in Madras and Travancore -Cochin. Processing is practically an Indian monopoly, and nuts are importedfrom East Africa for processing and re-export. It is planned to increasehome production from 60,000 to 80,000 tons per annum, but as the cashew isa slow maturing tree of low value per acre it is improbable that the ob-jective will be achieved by 1960/61. It would probably be possible toincrease imports from Africa. The export demand for processed nuts is saidto be in excess of present supply.

Availability of Cashew Nuts, Thousand Tons

Average1949/53 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

Home 46 54 50 8 52 62 53Imported 47 28 47 66 62 47 58

Sugar Cane.

123. Sugar cane is a profitable crop to those having sufficieat irriga-tion water and ease of access to a sugar factory. Attainment of tie targetwill present no agricultural difficulties. The production of white sugaris expected to be increased from 1.67 million tons in 1955/56 to 2.25 milliontons by 1960/61. Of this increased output of 580,000 tons the share ofcooperative sugar mills is to be about 350,000 tons, and here there must bemisgivings that a policy of refusing licenses to private enterprise to leavethe way open for cooperatives may retard the program, because cooperativeenterprises will need time and good men for their organisation.

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Coconuts.

124. The present production of 130,000 tons of coconut oil is 40,000tons short of requirement and the deficit is estimated to increase to 80,000tons by 1960/61 unless production increases. The Plan aims at increasingproduction to 210,000 tons by 196/61. This 60% increase appears to be anunrealistic targot at the time available. A loaf disease is at presenttaking toll of yield and shortening the life of trees. Unless this can bechecked the output of oil is more likely to fall than to rise.

Arecanuts.

125. Present production is 81,000 tons against a requirement of 118,000tons, which is likely to be 129,000 tons by 1960/61. As this palm takeseight to ten years to come into bearing, extension of the area will have noeffect during the Plan period, and little expansion took place in the FirstPlan period. It is, however, hoped to increase production to 99,000 tonsby 1960/61 by improved cultural practices and prevention of pests and disea-ses, and also to carry out an extensive planting program.

Coffee.

126. No firm development plan has been approved, but a plan for in-creasing production from 25,000 to 48,000 tons over fifteen years is underconsideration. Agriculturally this presents no difficulty; present estatesafford ample scope for rehabilitation and there are ample facilities forexpansion of the area. Vigorous expansion is, however, unlikely underexisting sales arrangements which offer only a limited incentive to invest-mont. All the crop has to be sold to the Coffee Board which pays a pricereflecting cost of production plus a margin of profit. Recent prices tothe Indian producer have been little over half of world coffee prices. Theoccasional surpluses to internal consumption are sold by the Coffo3 Boardfor export at a handsome profit. About one-third of the crop is rebustaand two-thirds arabica. The quality is fair, but foreign buyers cannotestablish a steady trade under present arrangements. Only 0.1% of theestates, covering 13% of the coffee area, is owned by foreigners.

Rubber.

127. No firm development program has yet been approved for rubbor; buta scheme for replanting 70,000 acres at the rate of 7,000 acres a year, andfor planting an additional 10,000 acres at the rate of 2,000 acres a yearis under consideration.

IV. Cotton Production

128. In the year 450 B.C., Herodotus recorded that "India has wildtrees that bear fleeces as their fruit... Of those the Indians make theirclothes." Pliny, in 73 A.D., complained of the drain on Roman sestercesfor purchase of Indian cloth worth about 15 million rupees. The textileindustry continued to flourish, and purchase of cloth was one of the earlyobjectives of the East India Company. A century later the IndustrialRevolution was born. It synchronised with the consolidation of Britishpolitical power in India and started a transference of emphasis from exportof cloth to export of raw cotton. Manchester fabrics soon appeared on theIndian market and by 1913 India imported from the United Kingdom more thanhalf of the cloth that she consumed. Past history and present economycombine to give cotton a special significance in India's political thinking.

129. In 1938/39 the area under cotton in undivided India was 23.5million acres, producing 5 million bales. During the war priority wasgiven to food crops; the cotton area was reduced to 14.4 million acres whichproduced 3.6 million bales. At partition India lost nearly 0 of thecrop, including 45% of the long and medium staples. ills sited in Indiaformerly used nearly one million bales of cotton from Pakistan territory,Since partition Indian production has steadily expanded:-

Area Production ConsumptionIndian Foreign Total

Million acres Million bales

1947/48 10.7 2.2 2.9 1.3 4.21948/49 11.3 1.8 3.1 1.1 .319b9/50 12.2 2.1 2.5 1.1 3.7195D/51 14.5 2.9 2.5 1.1 3.61951/52 16.2 3.1 3.0 1.1 4.11952/53 15.7 3.2 3.6 .8 61953/54 17.3 3.9 3.9 .7 .61954/55 18.7 4.2 4.1 .6 .8195/56 19.9 4.0 3.7 1/ .7 1/ b.4 1/

1/ Estimate of East India Cotton Association.

Distribution and Varieties.

130, The following table indicates the distribution of this development:-

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Thousand acresState 1947/48 1954/55 1955/6Andhra 711 702Bombay 2,091 4,578 5,092Madhya Pradesh 2,910 3,847 3,970Hadras 1,308* 872 796Punjab 294 759 813Uttar Pradesh 154 146 136Hyderabad 1,906 3,048 3,192iadhya Bharat 826 1,562 1,773

Nysore 53- 436 423Pepsu 193 430 455Rajasthan 207 483 547Saurashtra 533 1,182 1,281Other States 180 292 345

Total 10,655 18,346 19,525

* Andhra and parts of Mysore State are included in theMadras State.(Source: Indian Central Cotton Committee.)

131. In the last five years the area of cotton under irrigation hasincreased from 1.1 to 1.8 million acres, i.e., from 8% to 9o of the totalcotton area. The main areas of irrigation are:

Thousand acros % of cotton areaapproximatcly of State

Punjab 770 95Pepsu 450 100Iadras 160 20Rajasthan 270 50Uttar Pradosh 80 60

1,730

Rainfall in the cotton tracts ranges from 12" per annump in the north-westto 100" in Assam. It is grown from sea-level up to 3,000 feet. Some ofthe arboroum and herbaccum cottons are strong-rooting, hardy, pest-resistantplants able to thrive on poor soils and under drought conditions where fewother crops would give an equivalent return, end this should be taken intoaccount in considering India's low average yield which may be 80 lbs. lintin the rain-fod areas as against 180-250 lbs. under irricgation. The growingof hirsutum (Aerican) types is largely restricted to areas where irrigationis available or where soil and climate provide adequate soil moisture andwhere posts are not too severe.

132. The antiquity of cotton-growing in India over a wide ran-e ofclimates and soils has resulted in a bewildering number of varietiDs. Very

short and harsh staples constitute a high proportion of the crop, andyields compare very unfavorably with those obtained in other countries.Distribution, description and production of the main commercial types aregiven in Table V. Indian definitions of staple length are:-

Short, 11/16" and belowM1ediu, below 7/8" and above 11/16"Long, 7/8" and above

The term "extra long" is sometimes used to describe lint over 1-1/16".Iost of the short and much of the medium staple is coarse. The followingtable shows the trends in staple production:-

Thousand bales of 392 lbs.Long Modium Short 'Total

1947/48 319 (15%) 1,12h ( o) 745 (34%) 2,188Average 1948/54 676 (25%) 1,257 (466%) 793 (29%1) 2,7261954/55 1,587 (370) 1,886 (43%) 825 (20,) 4,298

(Source: Indian Central Cotton Committee.)

Agricultural Aspects.

133. According to dependence on irrigation or on either or bo-h ofthe monsoons, sowing and picking seasons range over the whole calendaryear. Different seasonal practices are often in geographical juxtaposi-tion, with, one must presme, benefit to posts and diseases.

13h. More often than not, cotton is unfavorably placed in the cropsequence. Of necessity it commonly follows wheat or millot. If i" followsground-nuts, yields are 15-20% higher. Inter-cropping with maize, millet,pulses and other crops is common. Ordinarily there is sufficient manureonly for the food crop, and the residual effect left for cotton will benegligible. The area of cotton receiving sulphate of ammonia is somethingless than 5. Although over much of the rain-f-3d area soil moisturO isas restrictive to yields as is plant nutrients, much of the cotton areawould respond to fertilisor, and trials on cultivators' fields show a 30%increase with a dressing of 30 lbs. nitrogen. On some soils the addition

of 30 lbs. P209 gives an additional 209 increase. Responses to fertilisersare often obscured by pests and diseases.

135. Much of the cotton is sown broadcast, increasing the difficultyof weeding and obtaining the optimum distribution of plants. Line-sowingis, however, increasing and with it the practice of bull-hoeing. Yieldssuffer severely if there is delay in weeding and thinning.

136. Jassids, aphids, spotted and pink boll-worms and the leaf-rollerare the chief insect posts. Among diseases wilt is serious and blackarm is

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is becoming so, particulary in the south. It is said that losses frompeats and diseases amount to only 5 or 7%, but a true figure is probablymuch higher. The status of an individual post or disease is a verydifficult thing to measure. The Professor of Agriculture, Ludhiana,put losses from jassids in the Punjab at 25%. Pink boll-worm infestationin Hyderabad is 20%. In some areas, e.g. Hyderabad, short staples aregrown in preference to Americans because of their greater resistance tojassids, and Americans are relegated to the less favorable higher altitudesnot favored by jassids. Post and disease incidence probably play3 a largerrole in delaying the spread of superior staples than is generally realized.

137. Research, notably in cotton-breeding, is well advanced and of ahigh order. Post and disease control techniques are well understood inresearch circles, but the difficulties of getting them widely adopted inthe field are very groat.

Marketing.

138. Producerst marketing facilities have received attention over thelast 30 years and are much better than for most agricultural products.Even so the figure of 260 up-country markets, which are regulated by law,seems ridiculously small. Distribution of these markots by states is:-

Bombay 64 Hyderabad 32Madras 8 11adhya Bharat 35Iiadhya Pradosh 36 Popsu 34Punjab 47 Lysoro 4

139. The average price in rupees per candy of 784 lbs. seed-cottonreceived at a widosproad sample of these markets was:-

Highest Lowest Average

1955 September 316 180 226October 306 150 220November 293 195 247Docomber 309 176 272

1956 January 310 210 270February 318 211 274March 391 267 323April 373 261 312

140. On-costs from market to mill, the same sample of markets, inrupees per lint bale of 392 lbs. are:-

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Highest Lowest Averago

Ginning and baling 55 39 45Cartage, brokerage,

insurance, etc. 50 3 lExport duty and sal( tax 24 nil 9Freight duty to Bombay 40 16 28

Total 127 77 9

At Bombay market there is 3-1/2% brokerage, store and sampling allowance;sales tax; and 1 rupee per bale domestic charges.

Foreign Trade.

141. It is general policy to permit exports of only the shortDr andcoarser staples and to permit imports of only "extra long" staples, butactual restrictions vary slightly from year to year according to avail-abilities and requirements. The western importers' main use for taiscotton is for admixture with wool in the manufacture of blankets.

Exports of Indian cotton by sea, thousand bales of 392 lbs.

Year ending 31st. August

To 1950 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 L954/55

U.K. 28 10 17Rest of Europe and West,

incl. U.S.A. 82 61 40Japan 46 127 80China and the East,

incl. Japan 7 1 1

Total 163 199 289 138 286

The above figures are from voluntary returns submitted by exporter3. Officialreturns are:-

Total 176 199 309 134 319

AddZoda (3rd. pick) - 3 9 4 23Yellow pickings - - 5 7 14

The trade estimate for 1955/56 exports is 600,J',O bales.

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142. Imports of cotton into India, thousand bales of 392 lbs.

Year ending 31st. August

From 1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55

Egypt 253 147 255 263 143Sudan 72 53 79 45 79E. Africa 217 135 228 183 287U.S.A. 265 890 86 190 93Peru 13 10 5 - 7Pakistan 5 - - - 5Others 6 5 24 10 -

Total 831 1,240 677 691 614

(Source: Indian Central Cotton Committee.)

143. In the current year 90,000 bales of Egyptian-type cotton(1-3/8" - 1-1/2") has been bought from the Sudan, despite the high pricesprevailing. There is strong internal demand for superior quality cottongoods. Recently 30,000 - 40,000 bales of U.S. aid cotton was bought at37-1/2 cents per lb., staple length 1-1/16" to 1-5/32". The trade couldtake up to 100,060 bales at this price and further deliveries are expected.Similar staple length BP 52 from Uganda would fetch 2 cents per lb. or100 rupees per bale more, because it is finer and less wasty.

Cotton Seed.

144. The use of cotton seed in India is strikingly different fromthat in other major cotton.-producing countries. Of the total productionof 1-1/2 million tons of seed, little over a thirtieth appears to be usedfor oil, the rest being fed whole to cattle, used as fertiliser or burntas fuel. The cake resulting from oil extraction is also largely used asfertiliser and to a lesser extent for fuel. FAO have drawn the attentionof the Indian authorities to this apparently uneconomic use of resourcesand have suggested that consideration be given to application of moderntechniques of oil extraction and utilization of residues.

145. Seed of dessil/ cotton has comparatively little adherent lintafter ginning, ?nd yields only 1 to 2% linters as compared with 8% fromIndian-grown Amorican. The production of linters from Anerican seed was

1/ dessi, or deshi, often used as a general term for local cottons(arboreum and herbaceum) in contrast to Amorican (hirsutum.)

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75,280 bales in 1953/54 and may be 86,240 bales in 1954/55. (Source:Indian Central Cotton Committee.) Cotton seed grown in India is reputedto have a relatively low oil-content with commercial extraction rate of15-16$. (Source: FAO)

146. Recent cotton-seed prices at a sample of up-country markets were,in rupees per candy of 784 lbs.-

Highest Lowest Average1955 September 88 52 71

October 88 51 73November 105 53 80December 102 73 91

1956 January 114 79 96February 115 80 104March 126 79 102April 124 75 100

(Source: Indian Central Cotton Committee.)

First Plan Achievements.

147. Production, million bales of 392 lbs.

Base Year1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 Target

2.9 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.2

The figures are those quoted in the Second Plan document, except for thatof the 1955/56 crop which is the latest estimate. It will be seen thatthe target, which required a 45/ increase, was attained in 1954/55. Thefall in output in 1955/56 is ascribed to adverse weather conditions.

148. A notable achievement of the plan was the increase in long stapleproduction from .6 million in the base year to 1.6 million bales in 1954/55.

Second Plan Aims.

149. The 1960/61 target is 5.5 million bales. The target is not ex-pressed in terms of area; it is intended that the increase shall mainlyderive from increased yields per acre. The expansion of irrigation duringthe Second Plan period should double the area of irrigated cotton, mdthis alone should increase production by nearly a million bales and-willalso facilitate the attainment of another aim - a further (but unsp3cified)increase in the proportion of long staple.

150. The spread of disease-resistant and higher yielding varieties,the use of fertilisers and the adoption of pest and disease controls all

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offer a great potential for increasing and improving output. Unless thereis imbalance between cotton prices and those of food crops the target shouldbe comfortably attained.

Limitations.

151. Fragmentation and poverty militate against the adoption of eventhe simplest improvements, such as the use of fertiliser and protectionagainst easily controlled pests, e.g. jassids.

152. Superior cottons are prey to a host of pests and diseases. Goodyields cannot be obtained without adherence to phyto-sanitary principles.Much can be done by standardising sowing-date, punctual destruction ofold crop residues and alternative host plants, strict enforcement of adead season, control of movement and storage of cotton seed and seed-cotton,etc. This calls for a degree of discipline which is perhaps not in accord-ance with India's present philosophy. The National Extension Service hasgreat scope here to obtain results through informed self-discipline.

152. Progress in establishing commercial varieties over 1-1/11" hasbeen disappointing. Surely some of Indials wide range of climates mustbe suitable for extra long staple cotton. It is quite possible that Indiamay become self-supporting in extra long staples within the next twentyyears if effective field control of pests and diseases ean be establishedin the appropriate areas.

,V. Oilseeds Production

153. About 8.5% of the cultivated area is cropped with oilseeis. Theycontribute about 4% of the total value of exports in addition to metingthe large domestic requirement.

Groundnuts has developed rapidly in the last twenty year3 toexceed the combined production of all other oilseeds. It is mainly akharif crop and rotates with millet and cotton, with sesame as an alterna-tive. Almost half of the production comes from Madras, with Bombay andHyderabad next. The requisitioning of cereals stimulated the plantingof groundnuts.

Sesame follTs groundnuts in acreage though not in production,being mainly grown in areas of light rainfall in rotation with millet.Uttar Pradesh, Madras and Rajasthan are the main producing areas. Theoil meets a popular taste and is all consumed locally.

Brassica spp., mainly rape and mustard, are extensively grownin Uttar Pradesh, mainly as a winter crop. In the Punjab they are some-times grown under irrigation before cotton.

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Linseed is also mainly a winter crop. Madhya Pradesh has thelargest area but Uttar Pradesh easily leads in production.

Castor is grown as an annual, maturing in nine months, largelyon hilly and stony land unfit for other crops. About half the productioncomes from Hyderabad, followed by Madras and Bombay.

Apart from the above, and the coconut, India has many other oil seeds.Among those entering prominently into commerce are:-

Kardi Carthamus tinctoriusNiger Guizotia abyssinicaPoppy Papaver somniferumKamala Mallotus philippinensisMahwa Bassia latifoliaNeem Azadirachta indicaChaulmoogra Taraktogenos hydnocarpus kurziiTong Aleurites fordii

Oil is also obtained from the shells of cashew nuts.

154. Area, Thousand Acres

1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1994/5 1955/567Groundnuts 11,106 12,151 11,848 10,495 13,588 12,600Sesame 5,445 5,942 4,874 6,351 6,460 5,900Brassica 5,118 5,934 5,201 5,545 5,665 5,800Linseed 3,467 3,409 3,366 3,428 3,290 3,400Castor 1,372 1,437 1,326 1,346 1,394 1,500

6,5 T,873 27,615 27,165 30,357 29,200

1/ Estimates only.

155. Production, Thousand Tons 1/

/ 1950/51 1951/,'2 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56Groundnuts 3,426 3,142 2,883 3,391 4,128 3,804Sesame 438 445 464 554 589 450Brassica 750 928 844 858 962 940Linseed 361 328 366 379 388 380Castor 101 106 102 103 124 126

5,076 4,949 4,657 5,285 6,191 5,700

1/ Estimates only./ In shell.

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156. Some Wholcsale PricesOilseeds, Rupees per iaund

April March 1iarchMarket 1954 1955 1956

Groundnuts Bombay 26 15 26Linseed " 19 16 27Castor n 16 10 19Sesame Madras 30 21 35Mustard Clcutta 23 29 27Cotton Bombay 12 7 12Mahwa Kanpur 17 11Niger Bombay 21 13Kardi il 9

Oils, Rupees per Maund

Groundnut Bomoay Sh 33 55Linseed " 4 37 67Castor " 34 27 44Sesame Madras 58 36 69'ustard Calcutta 65 49 64Cotton oAmritsar 50 33 1/Mahwa Kanpur 53 7Niger Bombay 55 37Khrdi " 55 36

1/ February. No March quotation.

Source: 1954' and 1955: Indian Central Oilseeds Commit-ee.1956: figricultural Situation in India," T1in. F. & A.

157. Internal Consumption.

The following table gives the pattern of internal use of thefive major oilseeds for 1954/55. The two preceding years are closelysimilar.

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Provisional Estimates of Production ofOilseeds and Oils and the Consumption Requirements

(1954/55)(Thousand Tons)

Rape and Casto'Groundnut Linseed Mustard Sesame Seed Total

A. Production of oil 853 114 291 183 39 1,481

B. Requirements of oil:-i) Edible 438 25 226 99 - 783

ii) Vanaspati 2LI6 - - 13 - 259iii) Soap 21 0.5 0.5 - 0.5 22.5

iv) Paints and varnishes - 5 - - - 45v) Lubrication - - - - 4 4

vi) Misc. uses - - 2 16 16 34Total 700 70.5 228.5 128 20.5 1,147.5

G. In terms of seeds 2,500 212 686 320 55 3,773

D. Requirements of seeds:-i) For sowing 459 19 14 14 7 513

ii) For eating 286 27 76 118 - 507Total 745 46 90 132 7 1,020

1. Total requirementsinterms of seeds 3,215 258 776 452 62 4,793

7. Production of seeds 3,823 388 962 592 112 5,877

Source: Indian Central Oilseeds Committee.

158. Exports over the last five years have followed a very irregularpattern as between oils and seeds and varieties of both.

hain Exports of Oilseeds, Tons

1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55Groundnuts 38,345 19,744 12,736 5,326 22,802Linseed 67,599 7, 284 68 nil nilCastor 78,555 1,171 4,311 nil nilSesame 926 2,268 2,348 3 nilBrassica 185 429 47 139 107-Niger 3,307 14,489 20,783 12,872 7,53Poppy 18 21 62 57 68Other 7,386 37,558 11,956 4,085 8,412

Total 196,321 72,964 52,311 22,1482 38,823

Canada has been the largest importer of groundnuts, and the castormainly went to U.S.A., U.K. and Japan.

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Iain Exports of Oils, Thousand Gallons

1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 19 54/55Groundnut 19,991 5,119 16,192 360 22,694Linseed 1,359 6,077 6,992 918 2,470Castor 5,898 5,522 9,023 4,620 7,159Brassica 29 36 2,016 74 120Mahwa nil nil nil 3 nilChaulmoogra nil nil nil 1 11Cashew nil nil nil 4 1,300Other 1,583 4, 546 2,)31 1,752 3,11

Total 28,860 21,300 36,654 7,732 37,265

Western Europe and Burma take most of the groundnut oil. U.S.A. and U.K.are chief buyers of the castor oil. Pakistan and Australia buy Linseedoil.

159. Imports of oilsceds are negligiblo, but there have beca thefollowing imports of vegotable oils, mainly coconut oil.

Thousand Gallons

1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 195/55

261 114 1,344 6,29 5,136

Processing.

160. Power-driven M4ills:Thousand Tons Crushed % of oil1953/54 1954/55 obtained

beGG( 11 U aKG beed- U1C Sare (Av.

Groundnuts 815 315 435 861 335 465 38Sesame 63 26 35 56 2L 31 32Brassica h07 136 261 288 98 183 42Linseed 170 56 105 139 47 86 32Castor 62 29 32 67 31 35 46Cotton 57 7 46 57 7 46 12

The above table shows:

a) that a relatively low proportion of seed is crushed in power-mills; castor is the only crop of which more than 501 goes tothe mills; groundauts 23% and sesame about 10;

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b) disappointing extraction rates (or oil content) except in thecases of mustard, rape and castor;

c) the poor results obtained from cotton seed, presumably becauseof unsuitable processing methods.

161. The village oil-press (ghani) can deal adequately with thesofter seeds such as sesa-onum and groundnut but not with cotton seed.

162. To give the village industry an advantage over the mills acess of one anna per maunid is levied on mill-pressed oil. Two anras permaund is levied on oilseeds exported. Those two cesses are for the re-venue of the Central Oilsoeds Committoo, which is largely concerned withsponsoring research and new developments. There is also an excise dutyof half an anna on every pound of oil in excess of 125 tons per power-mill. Export duty and restrictions are erratic according to internalsupply and world market conditions.

Targets.

163. The First Plan target was 5.5 million tons of major oilseedsfrom a base-year production of 5.1 million tons, an increase of 8%. Areview of the 195LV55 achievement and a guess at 1955/56 yields give thefollowing picture; yields in thousand tons:-

1950/51 195/55 1955/56Yield Yield inc. Yield. inc.

Groundnuts 3,426 L,128 25 3,804 11Sesame 438 589 35 450 3Brassica 750 962 28 940 25Linseed 361 388 8 380 5Castor 101 124 21 126 23

52 76 6,191 22 512

It is apparent that the increase in the groundnut crop provided half thecontribution towards fulfillment and passing of the target. Reference.back to paragraphs 154 and 155 shows that the increase was ascribableto expansion in area rather than to increased yields per acre.

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164. The Second Plan targets are:-

Percentage increase over

Thousand 1955/56 1955/56tons 1950/01 195/55 estimate target

Groundnuts 4, 700 37 11 24Sesame 651 48 10 45Brassica 1,060 40 10 13Linseed 428 13 10 13Castor 161 58 30 28

7,000 37 13 23 27

With the exception of castor, the oilseeds compete for land with foodgrains and cotton, so the additional output must come from increasedyields per acre rather than additional acreage.

The area planted to castor will not increase much unless theprice becomes more attractive, which seems unlikely. Castor is alsovulnerable to insect damage that is difficult to control.

The development of irrigation will help the brassicas scmewhat,and linseed to a less extent, but will have relatively little effect onthe kharif crops, groundnut and sesame.

Sesame is susceptible to drought and to untimely heavy rainand it is difficult to foresee a substantial increase in yield per acre.

Groundnuts respond to good cultivation and timely manuringwith nitrogen and phosphate placement. Such treatment, coupled withvarietal improvements, will eventually result in doubling the presentaverage yield.

On the whole the targets seem over-ambitious and an increaseof 19% on the First Plan target, from 5,00 to 6, 5 thousand tons,appears to be a more reasonable expectation.

Cotton Seed.

165. In terms of oil, at the conversion rates employed on page 53of this note, the Second Plan target requires an increase of about 450,000tons over the First Plan target and about 390,000 tons over the estimated195/6 production. The cotton target for 1960/61 (5.5 million bales of392 lbs.) postulates a production of cotton seed of nearly two milliontons. After deduction of sowing seed, there remains a potential ex-tractable oil content of about 270,000 tons. There are no firm dataregarding the amount of cotton seed oil extracted in India today, but itis thought to be in the neighborhood of 8,000 tons. Development of fullutilisation of cotton seed could make the following contribution:-

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In terms of oil; thousand tons

First Plan target 1,65019% increase 315 1,965Cotton seed oil, say 265

2,230Second Plan target 2,100

Without exploitation of cotton seed the export target of Rs. 240 millionfor vegetable oils is unlikely to be attained, particularly in view ofthe probable increase in internal demand, which may prove to be veryresponsive to rising prosperity.

166. The full economic exploitation of cotton seed presents a complexproblem and its solution must take into account the distribution of ginningfactories, delinting facilities, alternatives to the fuel, fertiliser andcattle food for which the seed is at present used, transport to the pro-cessing centers and distribution of the residual cake to the cattle-ownersand finally examination of the question of modernising existing mills andestablishing new ones equipped with the most modern facilities. The problemrequires and deserves study by a highly qualified technician and a commer-cial spocialist. Pro-pressing will probably prove to be advisable in manyinstances, to reduce transport costs, and the subsequent final extractionprocess should be extended to other oil cakes of which many have at presenta high residual oil content, and this possibility should be included inthe study. A high capital investment is likely to be required for modernequipment, and India' s bugbear of inadequate transport will need to beovercome. The resulting gross benefit might be of the order of Rs. 400millionts worth of marketable oil annually. The matter has already beenbrought to the attention of the Government of India in FAD/56/3/1)81 ofMarch, 1956, which inter alia points out that in the United States 90%of the cotton seed output is crushed and the combined value of the productsvaries from 140 to 190% of the price of the seed. As pressing of cottonseed requires power-driven mills, expansion of the commercial oil industryin this direction would not conflict with the village industry. It wouldin fact be complementary to it, for the power mills would be less dependenton the softer seeds which are pressable in tho villages, and by the solventprocess or the screw-press they could extract the residual oil from thevillage-pressed oil cakes.

Attention to the efficient extraction of the cotton soci oiland vegetable oils is the most obvious immediate project for the Indianagricultural economy.

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VI. Jute Production

167. Areas.

Million Acres

1939/0 1949/50 19,0/511 195/2 1952/3 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56.80 1.16 1.41 1.95 1.82 1.23 1.24 1.58

About 45h of the jute area is in West Bengal, notably in theeastern part of the State which benefits from the north-west monsoon.Some 25% is in Bihar, concentrated mainly in the north-cast, and 20% isin Assam.

Jute requires fertile land free from risk of flood. It growsbest in the longer daylight of sumer and is therefore sown early (frommid-February) where soil moisture permits - early rains in some areas,mid-March irrigation in Orissa. Only about 20% of the crop can be sownearly. Drought reduces the crop; floods destroy it. Because of the dangerof flood damage, many farmers without high land will not risk growingjute.

168. Yields.

Million bales of O lbs.

1939/W0 1949/50 1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1/053/54 19154/55 1955/561.9 3.09 3.28 4.68 4.59 3.09 2.93 -. 14

Assam gives a higher average yield than the other States. Theaverage yield is about 2.5 bales per acre, whereas in Pakistan the yieldis about 3 bales per acre,

Quality.

Corchorus capsularis can be sown early and is quick to nature.Properly rotted it yields a white jute. About 25% of the crop isC.olitorius, mostly in the Calcutta neighborhood. It gives a hoavieryield of stronger fiber, but is not so tolerant of water-logging and ifsown before mid-April it flowers early and vegetative growth is therebychecked. The trade names for the two varieties are white jute and tossarespectively.

The main factor adversely affecting the quality of Indian juteis shortage of water for rotting. No price incentive is offered to thecultivator to encourage him to produce better quality fiber.

169. The trade jute statistics usually include mesta and bimli. Theformer is Deccan hemp or kenaf, Hibiscus cmaiabinus. Bimli, or bimlipatam

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hemp, is obtained from both H. cannabinus and H. Sabdariffa var. altissimaand the name applies only to the crop grown in Andhra and Madras States.H. sabdariffa is gaining in popularity because of its higher yield, butit is not statistically separated from mesta. Production figures areavailable only for the last four years.

Mesta 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56Thousand acres 484 463 528 618

" bales 682 650 1,018 1,201

Mesta is extensively used in the cottage industry for making coarse canvas,sacks, ropes and string, and about half a million bales is taken by thejute mills for admixture with jute in the manufacture of the coarserproducts. The Government is taking no active steps to encourage the pro-duction of mesta.

170. The Cultivators.

Eighty percent of the producerst cost is labor, assuming a wageequivalent of Rs. 2 per diem. The need for labor is concentrated at theperiods of weeding and harvesting. If all labor is paid for at the aboverate the margin of profit is small or negative. Thus jute is mainlygrown in small patches by small farmers, who can themselves meet at leasthalf the labor requirement. More than half the farms in the jute growingareas are less than 2-1/2 acres, and more than half the farmers are indebt. The average debt is between two and three hundred rupees. Afarmer will rarely put more than 30% of his land under jute.

171. Policy.

During the post-war and pro-partition boom period it was necessaryto exercise some restriction on the area sown to jute, but this phase wasshort-lived and in 1949 India set up a jute Development Board, financedfrom the Centre and staffed by the States, to stimulate jute-growing andthe development of retting facilities. Area and production are now wellin excess of pro-partition attainments.

It is the declared intention to approach self-sufficiency inraw jute by increasing the yield per acre. The Second Five Year ?lanhopes for an additional one million bales from an extension campaigninvolving the production and distribution of better seed, adoption ofimproved cultural practices and the construction of retting tanks. Evenif this target is attained it is expected that import requirement- willbe 1.6 million bales.

172. Research.

Breeding work has made considerable progress in evolviny high-yielding strains of good quality, with attention to regional adaptabilityand tolerance of water-logging.

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Suitable seed-drills, giving economy in seed-rate and permittinginter-row cultivation, thereby reducing weeding costs, have been designed,

Chemical control of the semi-looper and hairy caterpillars,which regionally wipe out the crop, has been attained.

Progress has been made on improvements in retting methods.

High yields have been obtained with fertilisers.

173. Potential and Prospects.

Jute is very responsive to good treatment. Despite its sus-ceptibility to damage by drought and flood the Indian Central Jute Com-mitteets target of an average yield of 3.3 bales per acre is well withinthe capacity of any farmer able to avail himself of known improvements.However the practical difficulties of getting the improvements to themultitude of impecunious producers are so great that it seems more re-alistic to seek increased output from an increase in area. This will notbe obtained so much in the established jute-growing areas, where farmershave already reached a balance between jute and other crops, as in thenew irrigation projects now developing in Bihar, West Bengal and Drissa.Trials of jute in these areas have given promising results despite therelatively lower humidities of the inland regions. Moreover rettingfacilities will be more easily obtainable in the canalised areas. (Theseviews accord with those of the l.C.J.C.)

The laborious and unpleasant work associated with jute productionmakes jute very vulnerable to a rise in price of alternative crops.Prices will probably affect jute production more than any other combina-tion of factors and have indeed operated against fulfillment of the FirstPlan target. A fall in mill prices need not result in a lowering ofproducerst prices if marketing and grading were streamlined from theproducer to the mill. This, though difficult, should be easier of achieve-ment than improvements in cultural practices, because it would make noadditional call on the farmers' resources of labor and investment.

174. Paddy-Jute Relationship.

For avoidance of flooding jute is sown on the higher land onwhich the alternative would often be the comparatively low-yielding dryrice. In West Bengal and.Assam paddy land is vastly more extensive thanjute land and there is no appreciable sense of competition for land asbetween the two crops. Moreover early sown jute is harvested in time tobe followed by transplanted rice on the same land.

As regards competition for labor, early jute is off before therice-planting season; late jute comes to harvest between the plantingand the harvesting of rice.

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The average jute-grower spends about 40% of his cash proceedsfrom jute on buying his rice requirements for the three or four monthsprior to his rice harvest. He is thus embarrassed by a price for ricehigh relative to that of jute. He is well content if the price per maundof jute approaches three times that of paddy. If the jute price fallsbelow double that of paddy he finds jute-growing unrewarding and .educeshis acreage in favor of other crops (probably rice), or he seeks cashthrough employment.

A rise in paddy prices would therefore call for a rise in juteprice if the level of jute production were to be maintained. Thus highpaddy prices could cause a shortage in jute, thereby bringing a scarcityfactor to bear on jute prices.

175. Below are given some data from a survey of two centers an WestBengal and one in each of the States Bihar, Orissa and Assam. The averageyield per acre of jute at the several centers ranges from 6 to 16 maunds 1/and of paddy from 9 to 17 maunds. The area under paddy is about ,hreetimes that of jute.

Price per maund Ratio Area sawn to jute:Jute Paddy Jute price

Rs. as. Rs. as. Paddy price Thousand acres1948/49 30 - 11 10 - 5 2.97 801949/50 31 - 7 10 - 10 2.96 1,1631950/51 34 - 5 14 - 1 2.44 1,5641951/52 45 - 12 18 - 3 2.52 1,9511952/53 20 - 15 11 - 9 1.81 1,8171953/54 22 - 15 11 - 0 2.09 1,1961954/55 24 - 14 8 - 14 2.80 1,2431955/56 23 - 11 9 - 0 2.63 1,581

The prices quoted are those at which the farmer sold his jute and boughthis paddy. The relationship between the price ratio and the area sown tojute is illustrated by a graph following the Tables.

The proportion of rice to paddy varies somewhat with variety andwith the nature of the processing. It is generally taken as being 2:3.

1/ One maund = 82-2/7 pounds.

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VII. Monsoon Effects on Food Grain Production

176, In reviewing the First Plan achievements it is assumed by theplanners that each acre brought under irrigation increases the yield offood grains by 0.2 tons. Application of this assumption to the baseyear figure of the First Plan gives the following picture of source ofyield: -

20 million acres major irrigation yields 7 million sons31 " " minor it 10 " "1

270 it rairfed cultivation " 37 " "321 I" cultivated " " "

177. Up to that time there was reason to believe that in a year ofexceptionally unfavorable weather the yield would not fall by more than12-1/2% of normal expectation. It is bold to assume that yields offmajor irrigation projects are unaffected by adverse monsoons. It is morethan compensatingly pessimistic to assume that minor irrigation as a wholeis as seriously affected as is rain-fed cultivation. On balance -.t isconservative to assume that a yield related to the area under major irriga-tion is independent of adverse monsoon effects and that the remainingyield increment is fully susceptible.

Twelve-and a half percent of the yield in the base year of thePlan was 6.75 million tons, or about 14-1/3% of the "susceptible" com-ponent of the yield.

178. By the end of the First Plan period the normal expectation ofyield was estimated to be 64 million tons. The area under major irriga-tion had risen to 27 million acres and could be credited with 9 milliontons, leaving 55 million tons to the "susceptible" sector. Fourteen-and a third percent of 55 is nearly 8 million tons, representing a maxi-mum shortfall if the monsoon had been abnormally bad. Coincidentally itis still 12-1/2% of the total normal yield.

179, By the end of the Second Plan period the normal expectation ofyield is to be raised to 75 million tons. The area under major irriga-tion is to be raised to 40 million acres, representing 13-1/2 million tons.Fertilisers, better seeds and improved practices are expected to contribute5 million tons to the increase in potential. As these measures are largelyconcentrated on the irrigated areas it is reasonable to add 1-1/2 of this5 million to the major irrigation potential, bringing it up 15 million tons,thus leaving 60 million tons to the "susceptible" sector. Fourteen- anda third percent, the maxiium shortfall, is 8.6 million tons, or 1l-1/2%of the total yield.

180. By the end of the Third Plan period there should be a further20 million acres under major irrigation. By this time there should have

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been a substantial improvement in agricultural techniques and the 60million acres should produce at least 25 million tons out of a possibletotal of 90 million tons. The maxinm shortfall in the "susceptible"sectorwcuild be 9*3 million tons, or 10-1/3% of the whole.

181. In the above speculations it has been assumed that the sus-ceptibility of the "susceptible" sector will remain as it was in 1950.This of course is not the case. Flood control, drainage, contour bundingand improved dry farming techniques will all help to save crops that wouldformerly have been lost. On the other hand, as potential yields are raisedthe greater is the potential loss. When India is producing 200 nilliontons of food grains she may well be exposed to a shortfall of 20 milliontons, a vast quantity of grain but nevertheless only 10% of the normalcrop.

VIII. Agricultural Imports and Exports

Imports.

182. Total imports in 195 amounted to Rs. 6.6 billion. About 25%of these imports were of an agricultural nature totalling about Rs. 1.6billion. Of this sm, cotton lint (Rs. 540 million), food grains(Rs. 350 million) and raw jute (Rs. 170 million) accounted for roughlytwo-thirds. If all goes well with the cotton textile industry,'Iherequirement of long staple cotton will increase rather than decrease andno reduction in volume of import can be foreseen in the next few years.The cost of cotton imports, however, may be expected to fall. In thelonger term, research and extension work should be able to effect suchimprovement in varieties and in pest and disease control that Indiashould become self-supporting in all but very special lines of cotton.Even if the textile industry expands considerably, both for domesticconsumption and for export, India should in 25 years' time be spendingfar less on importing cotton that she does today.

183. As the National Extension Service gains in knowledge andefficiency the production of food grains should more than keep pace withgrowth in population and increased per capita consumption. If all goeswell during the Second Plan period, imports of food grains thereaftershould not be necessary unless a possibly wise decision is taken toincrease the emphasis on exportable crops such as oilseeds with deliberateintention of importing food grains to make up the country's requirementsas necessary.

184. No very optimistic view is taken of the future of the juteindustry. Unless India's requirement of raw jute falls substantially,it will be difficult to attain self-sufficiency unless the jute:riceprice ratio can be maintained around 2:1. This may be impossible without

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subsidising jute, which probably means that it will not be possible at all.If India's raw jute requirement remains close to its present level itwould be reasonable to continue to import a substantial part of the re-quirement.

185. Unless the expansion of sugar refining is retarded by insistenceon establishment of cooperative factories, which necessarily take longerto go into efficient action than does private enterprise, imports ofsugar should not again be necessary. Other agricultural imports arelikely to change only slowly, with increases in several commodities aspurchasing power and consumer demand grow. Indian production is unlikelyto catch up with domestic consumption of coconut oil unless the publictaste changes. The import of processed milk will probably increasesteadily. An economically desirable import is that of cashewnuts forprocessing and re-export, but this will decline if Africa establishesa processing industry of her own.

186. On the whole it appears that the total of agricultural importsin 25 years' time may be about half what it is today. This conclusionomits the possibility of a deliberate policy of importing food grains inorder to allow for additional production of cash crops. Imports of non-agricultural commodities aro expected to increase substantially.

Exports.

187. Tea, jute manufactures and cotton piece goods comprise nearly75% of the exports of agricultural origin (about Rs. 4.5 billion and 50%of total exports. Tea (Rs. 1.1 billion in 1955/56) should at worst holdits own and should increase if the industry is given a fair wind by theGovernment, which is at present somewhat undecided in its policy towardsthe estates. Expansion of production of low-land tea is comparativelyeasy. Land suitable for the production of superior upland teas is saidto be very limited but it is difficult to believe that the entire possibili-ties of northern India have been exhaustively surveyed. India is one ofthe few countries possessing the peculiar soil, climatic and labor con-ditions for the production of good tea and should be able to take ad-vantage of increased world demand.

188. The jute industry is exposed to increasing competition fromPakistan and possibly China, and to the development of substitutes. Theinternal demand for jute goods will increase, but the export (Rs. 1.2billion in 1955/56) may decline. It seems very unlikely to increase.

189. India is better able than most countries to hold her own in acompetitive market for cotton textiles and a steady increase over thepresent exports of Rs. 6.0 million is a reasonable hope. Exports ofshort staple cotton and waste (Rs. 300 - 400 million) should be main-tained and those of vegetable oils and oilseeds (Rs. 370 million in 1955/56)might increase in the long run if exports are not restricted in order toconserve home supplies.

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189. Other agricultural exports (hides and skins, wool, hair, tobacco,cashewnuts, spices) are unlikely to increase very much. Small surplusesof coffee are exported from time to time and there is scope for the ex-pansion of this crop and development of a regular export trade. On thewhole, however, the bulk of India's expanding agricultural productionwill be absorbed by the large and growing domestic market, and it isnot possible to foresee any substantial long-term increase in agriculturalexports. India's future as an exporting country lies rather in thefield of manufactures.

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Table I. Area and Production of Principal Crops

AreaMU7ilion Acres)

1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56Rice 76.1 73.7 74.1 77.3 74.4 76Wheat 24.1 23.4 24.3 26.4 26.8 28Coarse grains 93.1 96.1 104.8 112.1 107.6 106Total Cereals 193.3 193.2 203.2 215.5 -29.7 210

Pulses 47.2 46.4 49.0 53.7 54.0 55Total Foodgrains 240.5 239.6 252.3 269.5 262.8 265

Groundnuts 11.1 12.2 11.8 10.5 13.5 12.6Castor 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5Sesame 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.5 5.9Rape and mustard 5.1 5.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8Linseed 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4Total Oilseeds 26.5 2. 27. 27.2 30.4 29.2

Sugar cane 4.2 4.8 4.3 3.5 4.0 4.4Cotton 14.5 16.2 15.7 17.3 18.7 19.9Jute 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.6Mesta n.a. n.a. .5 .5 .5 .6Tobacco .8 .7 .9 ,9 .9 .9Chillies 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5

(Thousand Acres)

Tea 777 782 778 775Coffee 224 230 230 232Rubber 1144 148 169 169 172Coconut 1,536 1,545 1,549 1,564 1,577Turmeric 116Black Popper 208 214Ginger 35 37

1/ Most of the 1955/56 figures are early estimates.

Table I (continued) -67-

Production(Million Tons)

1950/5. 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56Rice 22.1 22.8 22.5 27.8 24.5 25.5Wheat 6.7 6.2 7.4 7.9 8.5 8.2Coarse grains 15.4 , 15.4 19.3 22.6 22.5 19.5Total Cereals 7-.2 -/ 4 C / T 19.2 58.3 5 53.2

Pulses 8.3 8.3 9.0 10.4 10.3 10.1Total Food grains 52.5 52.7 39.3 68.7 8 55.5

(Thousand tons except where stated otherwise)

Groundnuts 3,426 3,142 2,883 3,391 4,128 3,804Castor 101 106 102 103 124 126Sesame 438 445 464 554 589 450Rape and mustard 750 928 844 858 962 940Linseed 361 328 366 379 388 380Total Oilsoeds 5 076 ,979 ),5 3;28 6,191 4,700

Sugar cane 3/ 5,615 6,066 5,019 4,L23 5,546 5,860Cotton 4/ - 2,910 3,133 3,194 3,944 )4,227 )4,000Jute 5/ 3,283 4,678 4,592 3,091 2,928 4,140Mesta 5/ n.a. n.a. 682 650 1,018 1,200Tobacco 206 206 241 268 248 250Chillies 345 342 283 303 363 340Tea 6/ 607 641 675 589 644Coffee 6/ 54 55 48 56Rubber 5/ 32 32 36 45 43coconuts 7/ 3,312 3,336 3,310 3,881 3,855Cashewnuts 5)4 50 48 52 62 53Turmeric 121Black pepper 26 27Ginger 14 15Areca nuts 81

1/ Based on information later than the Second Plan document but stillsubject to final revision.

2/ Figures for 1950/51 and 1951/52 revised in the light of the cropsampling survey, vide p. 156 of the First Plan document.

3/ Yield expressed in terms of gujr, 10-13% of cane weight; white sugarwould be 9-12%.

4/ Bales of 392 lbs.3/ Bales of 400 lbs./ Million pounds./ Million nuts.

Source: Statistical Department of the Ministry of Food & Agriculture,except where indicated otherwise.

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Table II. Agricultural Production: Targets and Achievements

Annual Production(million tons) 1/ Targets

1st 2nd1950/51 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 Plan Plan

Food grains 52.5 2/ 52.7 2/ 5.3 68.7 63.1 1/ 77 W6 ~77.oM Major oil seeds 5.08- 4.94~ 4.66 5.28 6.19 5.7 - 5.48 7.0Sugar (gur) 5.62 6.06 5.01 4.42 5.55 5.86 6.32 7.1

(million bales)Cotton (392 lbs.)2.91 3.13 3.19 3.94 4.23 4.0 4.17 5.5Jute (400 lbs.) 3.28 4.67 4.59 3.09 2.93 4.14 5.37 5.0

1/ The figures for 1955/56 and in some cases for 1954/55 are later than thosepublished in the Second Plan document.

2/ Lt the time of formulation of the First Plan it was thought that the 1950/51

yield of food grains was abnormally low, so 1949/50 was used as the base yearin fixing the target for food grains. For other crops the base year is

1950/51. In the Second Plan document the yields of food grains in the years1949/50, 1950/51, and 1951/52 are given as 54.0, 50.2 and 51.2 respectively.The figures used here are adjusted in the light of the crop sampling survey,vide p. 156 of the First Plan. The revised figure for 1949/50 is 53.5.

Estimated Consumption of Fertilisers(thousand-toAs)

Targets

2/e 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1st Plan 2nd PlanNitrogen 67 70 100 109 130 1/ 333

P20 5 3/ 10 7 10 16 20 T/ 144

1/ No specific consumption targets formulated.7/ In the First Plan this was preponderantly in form of sulphate of amonia.

In the Second Plan increasing use of urea, ammonium sulphate-nitrate andcalcium ammonium nitrate is envisaged.

3/ In the form of superphosphate.

Estimated Area under Irrigation(million acres)

Targets1950/51 1955/56 1st Plan 2nd Plan

Major irrigation 20.7 27.0 28.7 40.7Minor irrigation 30.8 41.1 37.8 46.8Net total after deduction

for overlap 51.5 66.5 65,0 85.5

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Table III. Sample Survey Data from West Bengal

1. RainfallDistrict

24-Parganas HooghlyJanuary - April 5" 5"May - August 42" l"

September -December 20" 18"

Total 68" 64"

2. Irrigation

24-Parganas HooghlyArea Percent of Area Percont of(acres) irrigated area (acres) irrigated area

By Government canals - - 4,192 5.1By private canals 18,463 52.3 6,000 7.3By tanks 11, 933 33.8 36,000 44.0By wells 78 .2 700 .9Other means 4,809 13.6 35 000 42.7

35 3 100 100

Net cropped area 1,4824000 acres 5,934,000 acresProportion irrigated 2;47 13.85

31 LandSample Village in

24-Parganas Hoogly

Land farmed by owners 48o 35%Land farmed by share-croppers 21% 18%

The State has replaced the zemindars, inheriting the rent system which remainsunchanged at 50% of the crop, the tenant paying all expenses. (Collection ofrent in kind makes an important contribution to the supply of rice to Calcutta.)

Where cash rents exist they are relatively low, about Rs. 5 per acre, but thereis no uniformity in levels of cash rents.

Size of Farms

A village in A village in24-Parganas Hooghly

7.of d df % of To offarms land farms land

Less than 2.5 51.5 18.7 70.9 33.22.5 - 5.0 28.5 28.6 20.8 33.75.0 - 7.5 8.9 15.4 4.9 14.17.5 -10.0 5.9 14.5 1.8 7.3

10.0 -15.0 3.1 10.5 .7 3.9More than 15.0 2.2 (two)12.3 .7 (one)7.8

High land 2' 35Low land 54 39

The number of parcels per holding ranges from 5 in small holdings to 19 in thecase of one of the holdings over 15 acres. The average is 8 or 9, and 70% ofthe parcels are less than one-third of an acre.

Table III. (continued) -70-

Land Use

Total area of village:- 11,052 acres 6,089 acres

Cultivated area 81% 62%of which: Paddy 80% 66%

Jute 4% 15%Pulses 7% 7%oPotatoes - 6%Double cropping 12% 1Ic%

Uncultivated area 19% 38%of which: Forest and grazing 6% 7%

Non-agricultural use 57/ 61%Uncultivable, barren 14% 11%Gardens and groves 20% 15%

Actual pasture area 90 acres )1 acres

4. Population

People per square mile (District) 591 1,030

The average population density of the Stateis 610 per square mile.

Agricultural population 73% 80%of which:

Owner-cultivators 6i 64/Labor 2 L" 20

About 25C of the total population are literate.The average villago is 3-10 miles from a motorable road.Daily wage is Rs. 1 or 2, plus food.

5. Crops

Sown HarvestedPaddy:

unan (broadcast) July Januarylman (transplanted) July, August Nov., Dec.Aus April, May Aug., Sept.Boro November March, April

Jute April, May Aug., Sept.Tobacco October Jan., Feb.

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Yields

Maunds per acre(1 maund = 82-2/7 lbs.)

Paddy, Aus 14 12Paddy, Aman 16 19Jute 13 16Potatoes 57 106Pulses 6 11Onions 4 106Sugarcane (gur) 1 48 60

1/ A. cane yielding 10% of white sugar would yieldabout 11% of gur.

Better seeds and artificial fertilizers are beyond the means of farmers and thereare no supply facilities.

Cash crop farms 1.33% .67%Food 1 " 56 % 24Cash and food crop farms 42 % 75 0

;. Livestock

Holdings with no cattle 31% 4e" " 1 or 2 cattle 59I 53%" more than 2 11% 3,o

Area cropped per pair ofbullciks 3.7 acres 3.8 acres

Milch cattle h87 head 2379 headCalves and heifers 3340 head 1574 headSheep 992 head 82 hoad

Because of scarcity of forage only 2% of the milch cattle are buffaloes.The per capita availability of milk for human consumption is 19 lbs. per annum in24-Parganas and 41 lbs. in Hooghly.There is a shortage of stud bulls and also of money to pay stud fees which areRs. 5 to 8 per service.

7. Credit

Ninety three percent is from moneylenders at rates ranging from 12j againstiortgage to 100% without security.

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Cooperative Society and Government loans are made at 6% to 10% but areinadequate in quantity and are hedged about with formalities.

Size of farm, % of farms Average debt peracres indebted farm, Rs.

Loss than 2.5 53 1832.5 to 5.0 60 2401.0 to 7.5 67 6287.5 to 10.0 40 512

10.0 to 15.0 42 1030Over 15 (three) 67 (two) 300

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Table IV

Physical achievements, people's contribution and Government expenditurein Community Projects/Blocks and N.E.S. Blocks

up to December 30, 195

Community Projects Blocks Villages PopulationNos. Nos. MilliDns

(1) Started 52/53 167 25,264 16.4(2) i 53/54 53 7,693 4.0(3) " after April 1955 152 15,200 10.D(4) Total (1) (2) and (3) 372 __,__ 30.4

National Extension Service

(5) Started 52/53 30 3,000 2.D(6) 53/54 142 14, 200 9.3(7) " after April 1955 258 28,800 17.0(8) Total (5) (6) and (7) 430 6,00F 0

(9) Total (4) and (8) 802 94,157 58.7

I. Physical Achievementsa/ b/ c/ d/

Agriculture & --(l) (2) (37 (4) (5) (67 (7) (8) (9)Animal Husbandry

1. Compost pit dug('000 Nos.) 536 74 236 846 155 223 44 422 1268

2. Fertilizers distri-buted('000 mds.) 3977 525 1763 6265 674 923 187 1784 8049

3. Seeds distributed('000 mds.) 1613 319 888 2820 350 583 161 1094 3914

4. Implements distri-buted( 000 Nos.) 120 23 30 173 29 61 4 94 267

5. Demonstration farmsstarted('000 Nos.) 765 103 132 1000 55 49 25 129 1129

6. Area brought underfruits('000 acres) 40 15 34 89 19 17 10 46 135

7. Area brought undervegetables(tOOO acres) 134 23 76 233 41 45 10 96 329

Table IV. (continued) -74-

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)8. Breeding centers

started (Nos.) 282 287 14 5838a.Key Villages (Nos.) 669 163 386 1218 19319. A.I. centers

started (Nos.) 69 49 12 13010. Bulls castrated

('000 Nos.) 03 96 155 654 11 216 30 387 104111. Pedigree bulls

supplied (Nos.) 2680 188 2044 5212 760 856 180 1796 700812. Pedigree birds

supplied (Nos.) 88 16 41 15 36 28 4 68 213

13. Cattle treated(Millions) 3 .6 1.1 4.7 .9 2.4 .3 3.6 8.3

14. Fisheries -Fingerlingssupplied(Millions) 9.3 1.2 2.1 12.6 1.1 3.5 .9 5.5 18.1

Reclamation

15. Area reclaimed(000 acres) 364 96 295 755 83 79 43 205 960

Irrigation

16. Additional areabrought underirrigation('000 acres) 1080 102 287 1469 181 141 30 352 1821

Health & RuralSanitation

17. Soakage pitsconstructed('000 Nos.) 116 27 62 205 35 67 9 111 316

18. Rural latrinesconstructed('000 Nos.) 38 6 14 58 11 9 2 22 80

19. Drains constructed(nillion yards) 1.6 .4 .8 2.8 .8 .8 .3 1.9 4.7

20. Wells constructed('000 Nos.) 12 3 5 20 3 6 1 10 30

21. Wells renovated(000 Nos.) 21 4 9 34 9 7 1 17 51

Education

22. New schools started('000 Nos.) 5 1 3 9 2 3 - 5 14

23. Ordinary schools con-verted into basic typo(Nos.) 2552 496 707 3755 642 550 207 1399 5154

(Table IV. (continued) -75-

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)Social Education

24. A.E. Centers started('000 Nos.) 12 3 6 21 4 7 3 14 35

25. Adults trained('000 Nos.) 306 82 123 511 85 141 36 262 773

26. Community Centersstarted('000 Nos.) 29 6 13 48 13 12 4 29 77

27. Community Entertain-ments organised(1000 Nos.) 107 12 34 153 21 25 11 57 210

28. Units of people'sorganisations developed(:000 Nos.) 17 5 11 33 7 10 3 20 53

Communication29. Pacca roads con-

structed(Miles) 1684 450 866 3000 494 504 71 1069 4069

30. Kacha roads con-structed('000 miles) 12 3 5 20 3 4 1 8 28

Arts & Crafts31. Production-cum-

training centersstarted (Nos.) 459 151 147 757 74 24 4 102 859

Cooperation

32. New cooperativesocieties started,('000'Nos.) 6 2 5 13 3 6 2 11 24

33. New members enrolledin cooperative so-cieties(000 Nos.) 266 47 182 95 159 243 49 451 946

Village Housing

34. Village houses con-structed(1000 Nos.) 20 4 5 29 N.I. NJ. N. N.I. 29

35. Village housesreconditioned('000 Wos.) 18 6 5 29 N.I. N.I. N.I. N.I. 29

-76-

II. People's Contribution

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Cash, kind and labor(Value, Rs. millions) 85.6 146.6 h6.2 18.4 26.6 32.3 6.5 65.4 213.8

Per thousand parsons(Rs. thousands) 5.2 3.8 3.8 3.2 1.9 .8

-II. Government Expenditure

Rs. millions 205 33 42 280 29 26 4 59 339

a/ Information for 3 Blocks allotted to Jammu and Kashmir relates to theperiod ending Sept. 30, 1955.

b/ Converted N.E.S. Blocks include achievements prior to conversion./ Information for 1 Block (out of 2 allotted) of Bhopal relates to the

period ending Sept. 30, 1955.

d/ Figures relate to 107 Blocks out of 258 allotted.

N.I. - Not indicated,

-77-

Table V. Main Commorcial Types of Cotton

(thousand bales of 392 lbs.)

Trade description Average Spinning capacity Production Tracts in whichof cotton staple in 1954/55 grown

lengths (official(32nds inch) figure)

iRBOREUMS

Bengals 12 to 18 5's to 10's 309 Uttar Pradesh,reelings * Punjab, 2epsu,

Rajasthan and AjmerStates.

Jarila (incl.Virnar) 24 to 28 22's to 24's warp 468 Bombay, ladhya

Pradesh, MadhyaBharat and HyderabadState.

Verun 24 to 26 20's to 22's warp 65 Hadhya Pradesh State.

H. 420 28 21L;s to 30's warp 67 i4adhya Pradesh andAndhra States.

Comras 18 to 22 8's to 16's warp 387 Bombay, HadhyaPradesh, MadhyaBharat mnd HyderabadStates.

Hyderabad Gaorani 28 to 30 24's to 28's warp 155 Hyderabad State.

Malvi 22 to 24 14's to 16's warp 258 M1adhya Bliarat andBhopal.

Southerns (Part) 16 to 29 8's to 28's warp 153 Madras, Andhra andMysore.

Coconadas we 22 to 26 14's warp 14 Andhra State.

Comillas 12 to l4 3's to 10's 18 ,ssam and Tripurareelings 179T ( X) States.

Table V. (Continued) -78-

Trade Average Spinning capacity Production Tracts in whichdescription staple in 1954/55 grownof cotton lengths (official

(32nds inch) figure)HERBACEUMSBroach -Vijaya 24 to 28 26's to 28's warp 428 Bombay State.

Surti -Suyog 28 to 32 24's to 30's warp 186 Bombay State.

Dholleras 16 to 27 8's to 20's warp 5L2 Bombay, Saurashtraand Kutch States.

Southerns(Part) 24 to 28 14's to 30's warp 170 Bombay, Fyderabad,

Andhra Mysore and1,326 (31"0) Madras States.

HIRSUTUMS

Americans 24 to 38 18's to 38's warp 1,078 (25%) Punjab, Pepsu, UttarPradesh, MadhyaPradesh, HadhyaBharat, hajasthan,Bombay, Eyderabad,imdhra M4ysore andhadras States.

GRAID TOTU1 4,298

* Reelings in yarn spun for the Indian Handloom Industry.MM The lint of this variety is naturally colored pink.

(Sourco: Indian Central Cotton Committee.)

-79-

Table VI. Distribution of Jute and Mesta Production, 1955/56

Jute MestaThousand Thousand Thousand Thousandacres bales acres bales

Andhra - - 85 199Assam 367 1,212 5 9Bihar 270 588 49 93Bombay - - 13 12Madhya Pradesh - - 23 12Madras - - 1 2Orissa 111 2L5 23 45Punjab - - 1 2Uttar Pradesh - - 33 86West Bengal 780 1,958 193 612Triiura 20 8 - -Hyderabad - - 202 197Madhya Bharat - - 17 15Mysore - - 1 s.Q.Vindhya Pradesh - - 5 3

1 58 1 137 618 1,201

INDIASUPPLY OF FOOD GRAINS AND POPULATION

(MILLIONS OF TONS) (MILLIONS OF PERSONS)80

450

LIFT ALE) POPULATION(-ø= LFTSCAE)(PIGHT SCALE ->

70 -- 400

350

DOESTIC PRODUCTION-ý(- LEFT SCALE)

55

-- 300

01950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 '60-61

TARGET

FLUGTUATIONS IN JUTE ACREAGE AND PRICE RATIO1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56

3 3

PRICE OF JUTEPRICE OF PADDY

2 2

1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56

8/8/56184(R) IBRD - Eccnomic StaIf