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War by developed countries: State building: effective police and military Control war, but still do it WWI: rise of war aversion
Changing attitudes toward war
A prolonged peace favors the predominance of a mere commercial
spirit, and with it a debasing self-interest, cowardice, and effeminacy, and tends to
degrade the character of the nation.
--Immanuel Kant, 1790
War by developed countries since 1918:
World War IIColonial warCold warPolicing wars
Number of wars among developed states since 1945:
Longest period of peace on the Rhine since the second
century B.C.E., before the Cimbi and the Teutones appeared to challenge the armies of the consul Gaius Marius in the
Rhone Valley.
--Brad de Long
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Civil war
Imperial and colonial war
International war
War, 1946-2003 (K. Gleditsch)
The data are for “wars," violent armed conflicts which result in at least 1000 battle deaths over the duration of the dispute for international wars, an average of at least 1000 battle deaths per year for imperial and colonial wars, and at least 1000 military and civilian battle-related deaths per year for civil wars.
Source: K. Gleditsch 2004.
2002Sudan
India (Kashmir)Nepal
ColombiaBurundi
2003Sudan
India (Kashmir)Nepal
LiberiaIraq
2004Sudan 2994
Chechnya 1141Nepal 1596
India (Kashmir) 1075Uganda 1600
Iraq
Battle-related deaths under 1000 per year:
armed conflict
riots
terrorism
brutal policing
criminal predation
Civilian deaths when there are less than 1000 battle-related deaths in a year:
genocidemass killing
massacreethnic cleansing
terrorismcriminal predation
MALVINAS ISLANDS
FALKLAND ISLANDS
PEOPLE 1,900SHEEP 600,000COST TO UK THROUGH 1989 $3,000,000 PER FALKLANDER OR $5 PER SHEEPUK TROOPS, 1999 2,000
Frequency of Armed Conflict, 1946-2001
The data are for "armed conflicts," contested incompatibilities that concern government or territory or both where the use of armed force between two parties (one of which must be the government of a state) results in at least 25 battle-related deaths per year.
Source: N.P. Gleditsch et al. 2002.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Civil War, 1945-2002 (Fearon and Laitin)
The data are for “civil wars," violent armed conflicts which result in at least 1000 battle deaths over the duration of the dispute with an average of at least 100 deaths per year.
Source: Fearon and Laitin 2003, 2004 .
27 civil wars active in 2002, Fearon and Laitin START END DUR DEATHS
BURMA 1948 . 55 CPB, Karens, etc. 220INDIA 1952 . 51 N.East rebels 375COLOMBIA 1963 . 40 FARC, ELN, etc 1500CHAD 1965 . 38 FROLINAT, various ... 418INDONESIA 1965 . 38 OPM (West Papua) ?PHILIPPINES 1968 . 35 MNLF, MILF 150ANGOLA 1975 2002 28 UNITA 400SRI LANKA 1983 2002 20 LTTE, etc. 20SUDAN 1983 . 20 SPLA, etc. 2250TURKEY 1984 . 19 PKK 50INDIA 1989 . 14 Kashmir 2250SENEGAL 1989 . 14 MFDC (Casamance) 3RWANDA 1990 . 13 RPF, genocide 59CHINA 1991 . 12 Xinjiang ?SOMALIA 1991 . 12 post-Barre war 100ALGERIA 1992 . 11 FIS 240ANGOLA 1992 . 11 FLEC (Cabinda) 175ETHIOPIA 1992 . 11 Oromo Lib. Front 1300BURUNDI 1993 . 10 Hutu groups v. govt 1000UGANDA 1993 . 10 LRA, West Nile, etc. 1032NEPAL 1997 . 6 CPN-M/UPF (Maoists) 2800CONGO 1998 . 5 RCD, etc v. govt 0INDONESIA 1999 . 4 GAM II (Aceh) 112RUSSIA 1999 . 4 Chechnya II 742ISRAEL 2000 . 3 2nd Intifada 990LIBERIA 2000 . 3 LURD 500IVORY COAST 2002 . 1 anti-Gbagbo 600
17287
Figure 3- 1: Number of Civil Wars per Year, 1960- 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Source: Tilly 2003, applying Paul Collier, World Bank data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
International
Mixed types
Internal
Frequency of War, 1945-2000
The data are for "wars," organized violence between armed forces in which at least one side is composed of regular governmental troops. Both sides must have some degree of central direction, and there must be some continuity to armed operations. No casualty counts are included and some of the wars tabulated have resulted in only a handful of deaths.
Source: Gantzel and Schwinghammer 2000 with additional data from Burkhard Conrad.
Thugs as mercenaries:
Yugoslavia Rwanda Kosovo East Timor Zimbabwe Chechnya Kenya Sudan
Thugs as warlord bands:
Sierra Leone Congo Somalia Colombia Burma Liberia Caucasus Nigeria Angola Algeria Macedonia Afghanistan
Each dressed as if he had been cast as a thug by a movie director.
The atrocities in Bosnia were committed by young urban gangsters in expensive sunglasses.
Dangerous primitives
I II III
Number of bad guys killed by Rambo with his shirt on 1 12 33
Number of bad guys killed by Rambo with his shirt off 0 46 45
Total number of bad guys killed by Rambo no matter how attired 1 58 78
Number of bad guys killed by accomplices of Rambo acting on their own 0 10 17
Number of good guys killed by bad guys 0 1 37
Total number of people killed 1 69 132
Number of people killed per minute 0.01 0.72 1.30
Time at which the first person is killed 29'31" 33'34" 41'9"
Number of people killed per minute from that point until the end of the film (not including the ending credits)
0.02 1.18 2.39
Sequences in which Rambo is shot at without significant result 12 24 38
Number of sequences in which good guys are tortured by bad guys 2 5 7
Number of sex scenes 0 0 0
PanamaGulf WarSomalia
HaitiCroatiaBosnia
RwandaEast Timor
Sierra LeoneAfghanistan
Iraq
Ancient hatreds myth
Aversion to nation-building
Low tolerance for casualties
Lack of political gain from success
Bias against war and aggression
Syndrome?
Sri LankaIsrael
Iraq insurgencyChechnya
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Civil war
Imperial and colonial war
International war
Effective government
NOTICERS: Gwynne Dyer
www.gwynnedyer.com
United Nations10 stories the world should hear more about: The Peacekeeping Paradox, May 2004 www.un.org/events/tenstories
PRIO Gregg Easterbrook
New Republic forthcoming
I’m not so naïve or simplistic to believe we
can eliminate war. We’re not going to
change human nature anytime soon.
Robert S. McNamara, in “Fog of War”
Testosterone
Evolution
Human nature
Aggressive drive
Thrill of war
Moral equivalent
Nationalism, religious extremism
Inequality
Lack of brotherhood, understanding
Lack of love, justice, harmony, good will, inner peace
Hate, selfishness, racism
Arms industry
Military ethos
Arms trade, proliferation
Nuclear weapons
Economic development: poverty-prosperity
International trade
Economic interdependence
International communication
Economic inequality
State system
Nation state
International organization
World government (vs. anarchy)
International law
Outlawing, renouncing war
Security communities
Democracy
RESPONSES:
It ain’t happeningOK, it’s happening, but I
still have faith in my fellow man
Yeah, but what about inequality in South Africa?
THE END