Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Accelerating Energy Efficiency To Reduce the PNW Power System's Carbon Footprint Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Slide 1

Accelerating Energy Efficiency Accelerating Energy Efficiency

To Reduce the PNW Power To Reduce the PNW Power System's Carbon Footprint System's Carbon Footprint

Tom EckmanTom EckmanManager, Conservation ResourcesManager, Conservation Resources

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilNorthwest Power and Conservation Council

Presented at Presented at Affordable Comfort NorthwestAffordable Comfort Northwest

February 3, 2009February 3, 2009

slide 2


Slide 2

Tonight’s TopicsTonight’s Topics

Energy Efficiency’s Role Reducing the Size of Energy Efficiency’s Role Reducing the Size of the PNW Power System’s Carbon Footprint the PNW Power System’s Carbon Footprint – Historical ImpactsHistorical Impacts

– Projected Impacts of Future Energy Efficiency and Projected Impacts of Future Energy Efficiency and Renewable Resource Development Renewable Resource Development

Can More Be Done?Can More Be Done?– – Initial Estimates for the 6Initial Estimates for the 6thth Plan’s Assessment of Plan’s Assessment of

Remaining Energy Efficiency PotentialRemaining Energy Efficiency Potential

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Slide 3

PNW Energy Efficiency PNW Energy Efficiency AchievementsAchievements1978 – 20071978 – 2007

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Avera

ge M

egaw

att

s

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

BPA and Utility Programs Alliance Programs State Codes Federal Standards

Since 1978 Utility & BPA Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Produced Almost Almost 3600 aMW of 3600 aMW of Savings.Savings.

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Slide 4

So What’s 3600 aMW?So What’s 3600 aMW?

It’s enough electricity to serve more It’s enough electricity to serve more than the than the entireentire state of Idahostate of Idaho and and all all of Western Montanaof Western Montana

It saved the region’s consumers nearly It saved the region’s consumers nearly than than $1.6 billion$1.6 billion in 2007 in 2007

It lowered 2007 PNW carbon emissions It lowered 2007 PNW carbon emissions by an estimated by an estimated 14.1 million14.1 million tons. tons.

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Slide 5

Since 1980 Energy Efficiency Resources Since 1980 Energy Efficiency Resources

Met About Met About HalfHalf of PNW Load Growth of PNW Load Growth

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Cum

ula

tive

Share

of

Gro

wth

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Slide 6

Energy Efficiency Is The Region’s Energy Efficiency Is The Region’s Third Largest ResourceThird Largest Resource

Energy Efficiency12%

Hydro55%

Coal18%

Biomass1%

Wind1%

Nuclear4%

Natural Gas9%

Petroleum & Pet Coke0%

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Slide 7

Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been AUtility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A

BARGAIN!BARGAIN!

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

May

-96

Nov-9

6

May

-97

Nov-9

7

May

-98

Nov-9

8

May

-99

Nov-9

9

May

-00

Nov-0

0

May

-01

Nov-0

1

May

-02

Nov-0

2

May

-03

Nov-0

3

May

-04

Nov-0

4

May

-05

Nov-0

5

May

-06

Nov-0

6

May

-07

Nov-0

7

Whole

sale

Ele

ctri

city

Pri

ce (

2006$/M

WH

)

Levelized Cost of Utility Efficiency AcquisitionsMonthly Average Wholesale Market Price @ Mid-C Trading Hub

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Slide 8

5th Plan Relied on Conservation and Renewable 5th Plan Relied on Conservation and Renewable Resources to Meet Resources to Meet Nearly AllNearly All Load Growth Load Growth

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

Cum

ula

tive

Cap

acit

y (M

W)*

Coal (ICG) (MW)

CCGTurbine (MW)

SCGTurbine (MW)

Wind (MW)

Conservation (aMW)

**Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts.accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts.

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Slide 9

Meeting 5Meeting 5thth Plan’s Conservation Targets Reduces Plan’s Conservation Targets Reduces Forecast PNW Power System COForecast PNW Power System CO2 2 Emissions in 2024 by Emissions in 2024 by

Nearly 20%Nearly 20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

With 5th Plan's Conservation Without 5th Plan's Conservation

CO

2 E

mis

sions

(mill

ion t

ons)

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Slide 10

Why Worry?Why Worry?

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Slide 11

Existing Power System Resources Existing Power System Resources Are Dominated by Non-COAre Dominated by Non-CO2 2 Emitting Emitting

ResourcesResources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Sh

are

of

Dis

patc

hed E

nerg

y (

%)

Petroleum & Pet Coke

Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

Wind

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Hydro

slide 12


Slide 12

Total PNW Power System Carbon Emissions Total PNW Power System Carbon Emissions Have Grown Significantly Since 1990Have Grown Significantly Since 1990

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Actual 1990 Emissions Actual 2005 Emissions Simulated 2005w/average hydro

output

CO

2 E

mis

sions

(mill

ion t

ons)

~ 15 Coal Plants

~23 Coal Plants

Existing Coal Plants Produce 85% of Total PNW Power Existing Coal Plants Produce 85% of Total PNW Power System COSystem CO22 and Provide 20% of the Region’s Power and Provide 20% of the Region’s Power

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Slide 13

The PNW Now Plans To Meet Nearly All Future The PNW Now Plans To Meet Nearly All Future Load Growth With Conservation and Renewable Load Growth With Conservation and Renewable

ResourcesResources

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

20072009

20112013

20152017

20192021

20232025

Dis

pa

tch

ed

En

erg

y (M

Wa

)

RPS Hydro

RPS Solar

RPSGeothermalRPS Biomass

RPS Wind

Conservation

CommittedWind

slide 14


Slide 14

How Will This Impact the Power How Will This Impact the Power System’s Carbon Footprint?System’s Carbon Footprint?

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Slide 15

Even If We Meet All Load Growth With Energy Even If We Meet All Load Growth With Energy Efficiency and Renewable Resources Efficiency and Renewable Resources

COCO2 2 Emissions from Existing Fossil Fueled Plants Emissions from Existing Fossil Fueled Plants Remain UnchangedRemain Unchanged

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sh

are

of

Dis

pa

tch

ed

En

erg

y (%

) Natural Gas

Coal

Biogas

Geothermal

Biomass

Nuclear

Wind

Conservation

Hydro

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Slide 16

Meeting the 5Meeting the 5thth Plan’s Conservation Goals Plan’s Conservation Goals ANDAND State State Renewable Portfolio Standards Renewable Portfolio Standards Will NotWill Not Meet WCI CO Meet WCI CO22

Emissions TargetsEmissions Targets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Emissions from NorthwestSources

Carb

on E

mis

sions

(mill

ion t

ons)

Actual 1990 Emissions

Actual 2005 Emissions

Simulated 2005 w/average hydrooutput

Forecast 5th Plan Resource 2025Portfolio Emissions

Forecast 2025 Emissions w/RPSRenewables

WCI GoalWCI Goal

OK, So What’s The Answer?

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Slide 18

55thth Plan Identified Nearly 4,600 MWa Plan Identified Nearly 4,600 MWa of “Technically Available” of “Technically Available”

Conservation PotentialConservation Potential

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

$10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $100+

Real Levelized Cost (2000$/MWH)

Ave

rag

e M

eg

aw

att

s b

y 2

02

5 Lost Opportunity Conservation

Dispatchable Conservation

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Slide 19

Adjustments to 5Adjustments to 5thth Plan’s Plan’s Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential Reductions in Available PotentialReductions in Available Potential

– Program AccomplishmentsProgram Accomplishments– Changes in Law Changes in Law

» Federal Standards for general service lightingFederal Standards for general service lighting» State Building CodesState Building Codes

– Changes in MarketsChanges in Markets» Improved “Current Practice” due to Energy Star, LEED, Improved “Current Practice” due to Energy Star, LEED,

Programs, Market TransformationPrograms, Market Transformation» Other Changes to Federal Standards (10 adopted, 21 Other Changes to Federal Standards (10 adopted, 21

under revision, and 12 with effective dates by 2014)under revision, and 12 with effective dates by 2014)– Changes in ForecastChanges in Forecast

» Less new commercial floor areaLess new commercial floor area» Lower industrial forecastLower industrial forecast

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Slide 20

Adjustments to 5Adjustments to 5thth Plan’s Plan’s ConservationConservation Resource Potential Resource Potential

Increases in Available PotentialIncreases in Available Potential– Changes in ScopeChanges in Scope

» Distribution System Efficiency ImprovementsDistribution System Efficiency Improvements» Consumer electronics (TV’s, set top boxes)Consumer electronics (TV’s, set top boxes)» Irrigation Water Management and Dairy FarmIrrigation Water Management and Dairy Farm

– Changes in Data and TechnologyChanges in Data and Technology» Detailed Industrial Sector PotentialDetailed Industrial Sector Potential» New Measures (e.g. ductless heat pumps, solid New Measures (e.g. ductless heat pumps, solid

state lighting)state lighting)

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Slide 21

Avoided Costs Are Forecast to Avoided Costs Are Forecast to Be Significantly HigherBe Significantly Higher

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

Wh

ole

sale

Mark

et

Pri

ce

(20

06

$/M

Wh

)

5th Plan

Preliminary Draft 6th Plan

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Slide 22

Energy Efficiency is Still the Energy Efficiency is Still the Cheapest OptionCheapest Option

Assumptions :

Efficiency Cost = Average Cost of All Conservation Targeted in 5th Power Plan

Transmission cost & losses to point of LSE wholesale delivery

No federal investment or production tax credits

Baseload operation (CC - 85%CF, Nuclear 87.5% CF, SCPC 85%, Wind 32% CF)

Medium NG and coal price forecast (Proposed 6th Plan)

Bingaman/Specter safety valve CO2 cost

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Energ

y Effic

iency

Gas C

omb

Cycle

MT

Wind

(Loc

al)

Advan

ced N

uclea

r

Super

critic

al PC (W

A/OR)

Colum

bia B

asin

Wind

AB Wind

> W

A/OR

ID W

ind (L

ocal)

MT

Wind

> W

A/OR

Le

veliz

ed

Life

cycl

e C

ost

(2

00

6$

/MW

h)

Emission (CO2) cost

Transmission & Losses

System Integration

Plant costs

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Slide 23

So Even After All Adjustments – So Even After All Adjustments – We’ve Have More To DoWe’ve Have More To Do

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

< 0 <20 <40 <60 <80 <100 <120 <140 <160 <180 <200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$/MWH)

Ave

rage M

egaw

att

s by

2030

Dispatchable Lost-Opportunity

55thth Plan Target Plan Target

66thth Plan Plan Avoided CostAvoided Cost

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Slide 24

Draft 6Draft 6thth MWa of “Technically Available” MWa of “Technically Available” Conservation Potential by SectorConservation Potential by Sector

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

< 0

<20

<40

<60

<80

<10

0

<12

0

<14

0

<16

0

<18

0

<20

0

Real Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)

Tech

nic

alll

y A

chie

vable

Pote

nti

al (M

Wa) Utility System

Industrial Commercial Residential Agriculture

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Slide 25

Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Heating, Lighting and Appliance Supply CurveHeating, Lighting and Appliance Supply Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$)

Tech

nic

al Pote

nti

al (a

MW

)

Solar PV

Solar DHW

Microwaves & Ovens

Dishwasher

Freezer

Refrigerator

Clothes Dryer

Clothes Washer

Lighting

Showerheads

Waste Water HeatRecovery HPWH

Efficient DHW Tanks

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Slide 26

Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Space Conditioning Supply CurveSpace Conditioning Supply Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200


Tech

nic

al Pote

ntial (a

MW

)

HVAC Supplement (DHP)

HVAC HP Upgrade

HVAC HP Conversion

Shell Upgrade - New MH

Shell Upgrade - New MF

Shell Upgrade - New SF

ResWX MH

ResWX MF

ResWX SF

slide 27


Slide 27

Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Supply Curve for Lost-Opportunity and Supply Curve for Lost-Opportunity and

Non-Lost Opportunity Conservation Non-Lost Opportunity Conservation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

< 0<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200


Tec

hn

ical

Po

ten

tial

(aM

W)

Lost Opportunity

Non- Lost Opportunity

slide 28


Slide 28

Take This With YouTake This With You

Meeting Meeting ALLALL Regional Load Growth With Regional Load Growth With Conservation Conservation AND AND Renewable Resources Renewable Resources Will Not Meet WCI COWill Not Meet WCI CO22 Emissions Targets Emissions Targets

Technically Achievable Conservation Technically Achievable Conservation Potential Could Reduce Projected 2030 Potential Could Reduce Projected 2030 Loads By 3000 – 4000 MWaLoads By 3000 – 4000 MWa

It Will Require A Much Larger (2x-3x) It Will Require A Much Larger (2x-3x) Investment In Investment In Currently Currently Cost-Effective Energy Cost-Effective Energy Efficiency and New Technology To Reduce Efficiency and New Technology To Reduce Our Carbon Footprint To 1990 LevelsOur Carbon Footprint To 1990 Levels

slide 29


Slide 29

Any Questions?Any Questions?

Documents

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Accelerating Energy Efficiency To Reduce the PNW Power System's Carbon Footprint Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation