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Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center
Predictive ServicesWinter of 2015-2016
Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook
Monday December 7th 2015
CPC Temperature Outlook for November 2015
(issued October 31st 2015)
Temperatures actually observed in November 2015
(departure from normal)
Climate Outlook verification: Temperature November 2015
CPC Precipitation Outlook for November 2015
(issued October 31st 2015)
Precipitation actually observed in November 2015
(percentage of normal)
Climate Outlook verification: Precipitation November 2015
El Nino Status as of November 2015:ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory in effect
“El Niño will llikely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-2016, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer of 2016.” -from Nov 12th 2015 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion
Historical risk of heavy rain accumulation in El Nino years
December through February
Historical risk of unusually warmth in El Nino years
December through February
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation OutlookDecember 2015
Most likely scenario: Warmer than typical over the northwest and northern plains
Temperature Precipitation
No clear trend foreseenover the northwest. Dry
northern Rockies
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation OutlookJanuary through March 2016
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:Dry north, wet south
Most likely scenario: Unusually warm temperatures through
winter over the far west
Dec & Jan 2015-2016
NWCC Predictive Services outlook :
December-March 2015-2016
The northwest geographic area is out of fire season. The incidence of large, costly, fires is
historically low after October. Even during periods of low rainfall in winter, the risk of large
naturally ignited fires is minimal.
Next Outlook:
Early January 2016