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Northrop Grumman Mission Systems The Pythagoras Counterinsurgency Application To Support The Marine Corps Irregular Warfare Study ABSVal Workshop #4 Mr. Edmund Bitinas703-968-1196 Ms. Donna Middleton703-968-1657 Ms. Brittlea Sheldon703-968-1137 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Northrop Grumman Mission Systems
The Pythagoras Counterinsurgency Application To Support The Marine Corps Irregular Warfare
Study
ABSVal Workshop #4
Mr. Edmund Bitinas 703-968-1196Ms. Donna Middleton 703-968-1657Ms. Brittlea Sheldon 703-968-1137Mr. Mitch Youngs 703-803-5997
Date: 9 July 2008
2
Agenda
• Work To Date– Develop Model– Implementation – Analysis – Sample Results
• Findings Regarding Pythagoras/COIN
3
Develop Model
• Built conceptual model in Excel™– Demonstrated Population Dynamics Methodology– Provided visual depiction of Population Dynamics– Created simple version of event impact
• Used in SME interviews
• Built conceptual model in Java™– Greater flexibility– Faster modification/upgrade– Used Excel as postprocessor
4
Conceptual Model of a Population Segment
Perception of InsurgencyEach Population Segment Has Its Own “Bubbles” – i.e. Orientations• The people within each Bubble may change over time
• Top arrows indicate movement toward the COIN• Bottom arrows indicate movement toward Insurgency• “Return” arrows indicate people remaining within the Bubble
Insurgent Active COINIndifferentPro-Insurgent
Perception of COIN
Pro-COIN
5
Effect of Influence Estimation
• Actions affect a specific population segment or segments
• Actions have a duration• Strength of the influence of any action multiplies the
values on the exit arrows– Perception of COIN affects the top arrows– Perception of Insurgency affects the bottom arrows– Return Arrows are affected as follows:
• Insurgent to Insurgent affected by Perception of Insurgency• Pro-Insurgent to Pro-Insurgent affected by Perception of
Insurgency• Pro-COIN to Pro-COIN affected by Perception of COIN• Indifferent to Indifferent is affected by the square root of the
product of the Perception of Insurgency and the Perception of COIN
– Result is normalized
6
Conceptual Model Expressed In Spreadsheet Model Form
• Sum of all exit arrows equals 100%– One arrow feeds back to original bubble (the Return
arrow)
• Initial fraction of population segment in each bubble defined by demographics
• Initial value on each arrow defined by insurgency susceptibility for the population segment
7
Effect of Influence Estimation on Target Population
Population Segment A
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Insurgency Pro-Insurgency
Indifferent Pro-COIN
Orientation
Nu
mb
er o
f P
eop
le
Initial Orientations
Revised Orientations
Population Segment A
Base Susceptibility * Strength of Event
Percent Change in Population Segment A from Initial State
Insurgency
Pro-Insurgency
Indifferent
Pro-COIN
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Orientation
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Percent Changefrom Initial State
Insurgent Active COINIndifferentPro-Insurgent
Perception of COIN
Pro-COIN
8
Example Influence Event
Insurgent Pro-Insurgent Indifferent Pro-COINInsurgent 0.850 0.120 0.025 0.005Pro-Insurgent 0.010 0.800 0.160 0.030Indifferent 0.005 0.185 0.700 0.110Pro-COIN 0.000 0.030 0.200 0.770
CounterInsurgencyCOIN Insurgency
Provide Security 8.000 4.000
Insurgent Pro-Insurgent Indifferent Pro-COINInsurgent 0.739 0.209 0.043 0.009Pro-Insurgent 0.008 0.672 0.269 0.050Indifferent 0.004 0.132 0.707 0.157Pro-COIN 0.000 0.017 0.113 0.870
Insurgent Pro-Insurgent Indifferent Pro-COINInsurgent 3.400 0.960 0.200 0.040Pro-Insurgent 0.040 3.200 1.280 0.240Indifferent 0.020 0.740 3.960 0.880Pro-COIN 0.000 0.120 0.800 6.160
Base Influence ValuesApply Influence
After MultiplyingAfter Normalizing
9
Formulation Decisions
• The population drifts naturally and in response to actions– Peoples minds change for reasons not being modeled– The model also addresses the impact of Insurgent and
COIN events• The timeframe basis for interaction persuasiveness
table is one week.• Order of precedence for changes (highest to
lowest):– Interaction Estimation Transition Effect on the targeted
population (the Direct Effect)– Persuasiveness/Allure Transition Effect (now replaced by
Salience) on population segments receiving information about events (the Indirect Effect)
– Background Susceptibility Transition (the Ongoing Effect)
10
Implementation Options In Pythagoras
• Three alternative representations– Each agent represents 600 people
• Too many agents
• Slow run times
– Each agent represents the entire segment• Ensures messages have equal weight
• Each group is represented
• Many fewer agents
• Low fidelity
– Each agent represents 1% of the segment• Messages have equal weight
• Better fidelity than Option Two
• Better reflects available media
11
The Latest Conceptual Model
• Persuasion and Allure replaced by Salience– Based on Charles Osgood’s Semantic
Differential• Widely Used In Advertising And Market Research
– Combination of three factors• Potency (P) Factor (Strong – Weak)• Activity (A) Factor (Active – Passive)• Evaluative (E) Factor (Good – Bad)
Salience = E √(A2 +B2)
12
Salience Related to the Conceptual Model
• Revised the implementation of Salience (to replace Persuasion and Allure) in the conceptual model:– An average Orientation for the two interacting
population segments is calculated. (using 1 = FARC through 5 = COIN)
– A Delta value is calculated based on the difference of the average of the two population segments
– The Delta value is then multiplied by the Salience value to obtain the weight and direction of the influence
• A positive value weights the target population’s tendencies towards the MAGTF
• A negative value weights the target population’s tendencies towards the Insurgency
13
Sample Salience Calculation
• Example using the influence of the Displaced Persons on the Urban Poor– Calculate average orientation of Urban Poor and
Displaced Persons• Average orientation of Urban Poor:
– 1x0.058 + 2x0.0917 + 3x0.6575 + 4x0.1512 + 5x0.0416 = 3.03
• Average orientation of Displaced Persons = 2.63
– Calculate Delta:• 2.63 - 3.03 = -0.398
– Multiply Salience value (taken from Salience matrix) by Delta to obtain the weight of influence
• -0.398 x -0.259 = 0.103
14
Pythagoras Configuration
• Scenario development completed in Pythagoras 2.0.0– Attributes 1 through 5 are used to represent the range of
insurgency orientations – Attribute Changers represent the population tendencies,
the influence between population segments, and the influence of the MAGTF actions
– Communication devices represent interactions and possess the Attribute Changers which will do the influencing
– Each agent represents 1% of a population segment. These agents are divided into classes based on the initial population segment orientation distribution
15
Configuration (cont.)
• Vulnerability is implemented as an incremental Attribute Changer
• Displaced Persons Pro-FARC Example:– Displaced Vulnerability Matrix
FARC Pro-FARC Neutral Pro-GOVT
GOVT
FARC 99.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pro-FARC 0.4% 99.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Neutral 0.0% 0.7% 98.7% 0.5% 0.0%
Pro-GOVT 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 99.1% 0.1%
GOVT 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 99.7%
Attribute 1 Attribute 2 Attribute 3 Attribute 4 Attribute 5
+4 0 +2 0 0
Displaced Persons Pro-FARC Attribute Changes
16
Configuration (cont.)
• Salience is implemented as a relative Attribute Changer.
• Implementing the example of the influence of the Displaced Persons on the Urban Poor (Slides 27 to 28):– Average Orientation, Urban Poor: 3.03– Average Orientation, Displaced Persons: 2.63– Salience Value: -0.259 (-26%)– Because the Urban Poor population falls to the right of
the Displaced Persons, the negative salience value is going to shift the population even more to the right.
– The Displaced Persons possess relative attribute changers to bring the Urban Poor Attributes 4 and 5 closer to them by 26%
17
Configuration (cont.)
• MAGTF Influence Estimation– The Shore Based MAGTF action influences the
Displaced Persons by 0.721 to the right and 0.117 to the left
– The action is implemented as a multiplier Attribute Changer, multiplying the left Attributes by 1.17, the and the right Attributes by 7.21 based on the orientation sector being targeted
18
Pythagoras Colombia Scenario Results
Urban Middle Class Orientation Changes, No MAGTF action
The graph below shows the resulting orientation changes based on background vulnerabilities and interacting population segments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Months
Po
pu
lati
on
Seg
men
t P
erce
nta
ge
FARC Pro-FARC Neutral Pro-COIN COIN
19
Pythagoras Colombia Scenario Results (cont.)
MAGTF Off-Shore, Urban Middle Class Orientation Changes
The graphs on the following slides display the cumulative results of MAGTF actions on the Urban Middle Class
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Months
Po
pu
lati
on
Seg
men
t P
erce
nta
ge
FARC Pro-FARC Neutral Pro-COIN COIN
20
Pythagoras Colombia Scenario Results (cont.)
MAGTF On-Shore, Urban Middle Class Orientation Changes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Months
Po
pu
lati
on
Seg
men
t P
erce
nta
ge
FARC Pro-FARC Neutral Pro-COIN COIN
21
Pythagoras Colombia Scenario Results (cont.)
• The graphs demonstrate significant differences in the population dynamics and final outcome as a result of implementing either on-shore or off-shore MAGTF actions
• In the off-shore scenario, there is a steady increase in the COIN sector of the Urban Middle Class Population Segment, while in the on-shore scenario, the COIN population decreases.
• The percentage of FARC and pro-FARC in the Urban Middle Class Segment reaches near 0% in the off-shore scenario, while approximately 5% of the population in the on-shore scenario remain FARC and Pro-FARC
22
Further Development of Colombia Scenario
• The Study Team has completed sensitivity runs to determine if the results are robust for changes in inputs
• The Study Team performed data farming runs to examine the interactions among populations, and look for outliers
• Suggestions from the study sponsor have been incorporated into the model
23
Further Development-Implied Study Objectives
• The Study Team has advanced the art (and science) of modeling irregular warfare
• Pythagoras can be used to model population dynamics. It is accomplished through:– Algorithm construction– Data identification– Data collection– Data interpretation (Words To Numbers)– Data preparation– Analytic processes (e.g., Data Farming)
Ashore or Afloat?
• Base Case run indicates Afloat, but– The data is soft (words to numbers)– The methodology is one of many
• Performed Data Farming runs to increase confidence in the answer– Fifty (50) data farming runs– Modified influence and salience by between -25% and
+25% using soft rules (uniform distribution)– Modifying MAGTF influence -10% to +10%
Ashore or Afloat ResultsPercent Population Pro-COIN, COIN
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
Catholic Church Displaced Persons Illicit Organizations Military Old Money Police Urban MiddleClass
Urban Poor
Pe
rce
nt
Po
pu
lati
on
Afloat has nearly equal or more Pro-COIN, COIN
Ashore or Afloat Results (cont.)Percent Population Pro-FARC, FARC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
No
MA
GT
F
Ash
ore
Afl
oat
Catholic Church Displaced Persons Illicit Organizations Military Old Money Police Urban Middle Class Urban Poor
Pe
rce
nt
Po
pu
lati
on
Afloat has the same or fewer Pro-FARC, FARC
27
Validation
• “Which COA is better?” cannot be answered with much confidence
• “What is the chance that ashore is better than afloat?” can be answered with greater confidence– More pro-Government sentiment if Marines stay afloat– Lower pro-FARC sentiment if Marines stay afloat– Marine arrival has a polarizing effect (fewer neutrals)– Marine arrival in either case increases anti-Government
sentiments of the Illicit Organizations and the Military
• Afloat seems to usually do less harm.– There is no factor in our influence estimation that BOTH
reduces the negative impact of Ashore AND increases the negative impact of Afloat
28
Validation (cont.)
• Because the current Markov chain will eventually return to the same steady state, regardless of MAGTF action, once the MAGTF leaves, we need to consider:– Does the MAGTF commander care about leaving a
lasting impression?– At what point in time do we measure ‘better’?– Pythagoras could change the final steady state as a
function of one or more population segments exceeding or falling below some target value. However, this data was not collected