Upload
lee-wilcox
View
214
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
←North Star
New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility
Rates: 2001-2009
Brady E. Hamilton
National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National Conference on Health
StatisticsAugust 6-8, 2012
Renaissance Washington DC999 Ninth Street NW
Washington, District of Columbia
1
Acknowledgements:
Sally C. CurtinSharon KirmeyerJoyce A. Martin T.J. MathewsMichelle J.K. OstermanYashodhara PatelElizabeth C. WilsonStephanie J. Ventura
2
Why revise vital rates?
3
To provide more accurate birth and fertility rates incorporating
the latest census data.
4
Postcensal population estimates: estimates of the population made for the years following a census, before the next census has been taken (i.e., the old, original, or unrevised estimates).
Intercensal population estimates: estimates made for years between two consecutive decennial censuses (i.e., the new or revised estimates).
NOTE: Postcensal population estimates shown in this presentation are those of the stated data (or “vintage”) year.
5
Comparison of intercensal and postcensal U.S. population
estimates
6
260
270
280
290
300
310
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Year
Estimates of total population based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
0
7
0
100
200
300
400
All races and origins Non-Hispanic White
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sEstimates of total population by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Δ: -0.235 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
-2.167 million
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-Hispanic Black AIAN API Hispanic
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sEstimates of total population by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009 (continued)
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
+0.908 million
Δ: +0.249 million
+0.628 million
+1.085 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
9
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Year
Population estimates of women age 15-44 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0.0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
10
0
20
40
60
80
All races and origins Non-Hispanic White
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sPopulation estimates of women age 15-44 by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Δ: +0.425 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
-0.766 million
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Non-Hispanic Black AIAN API Hispanic
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sPopulation estimates of women age 15-44 by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009 (continued)
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
+0.833 million
Δ: +0.003 million
+0.165 million
+0.445 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Age (years)
Population estimates of women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
13
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in t
en t
ho
usa
nd
s
Age (years)
Population estimates off AIAN women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
14
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in t
en t
ho
usa
nd
s
Age (years)
Population estimates of API women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
15
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Age (years)
Population estimates of Hispanic women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
16
Comparison of intercensal- and postcensal-based U.S. birth
and fertility rates
Note:
Numerator (i.e., same number of births)
Denominator (i.e., different population estimates)
17
18
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
Year
Crude birth rate based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
19
11.0
15.8
13.9
16.2
20.6
11.2
15.7
11.8
15.1
20.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Non-HispanicWhite
Non-HispanicBlack
AIAN API Hispanic
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
Crude birth rate by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
20
55
60
65
70
75
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
wo
men
ag
ed 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
21
58.4
68.962.8
68.7
93.3
59.6
68.9
51.7
61.3
86.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Non-HispanicWhite
Non-HispanicBlack
AIAN API Hispanic
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
wo
men
ag
e 15
-44
in s
pec
ifie
d g
rou
pGeneral fertility rate by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
22
50
55
60
65
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ra
te p
er
1,0
00
wo
me
n a
ge
d 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate for non-Hispanic white women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
23
65
75
85
95
105
115
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ra
te p
er
1,0
00
wo
me
n a
ge
d 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate for Hispanic women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
24
45
50
55
60
65
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ra
te p
er
1,0
00
wo
me
n a
ge
d 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate for AIAN women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
25
MT
WY
ID
WA
OR
NV
UT
CA
AZ
ND
SD
NE
CO
NM
TX
OK
KS
AR
LA
MO
IA
MN
WI
IL IN
KY
TN
MS AL GA
FL
SC
NC
VAWV
OH
MI
NY
PA
MDDE
NJ
CT RI
MA
ME
VTNH
AK
HI
Fertility rate for women age 15-44 by state based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
No difference
Lower
Higher
Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
26
MT
WY
ID
WA
OR
NV
UT
CA
AZ
ND
SD
NE
CO
NM
TX
OK
KS
AR
LA
MO
IA
MN
WI
IL IN
KY
TN
MS AL GA
FL
SC
NC
VAWV
OH
MI
NY
PA
MDDE
NJ
CT RI
MA
ME
VTNH
AK
HI
Birth rate for women age 15-19 by state based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
No difference
Lower
Higher
Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
27
Summary:
Differences between birth and fertility rates based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses vary by age, race, Hispanic origin, and area population group.
The disparity in revised (2010-based) birth and fertility rates among population groups is generally smaller than the unrevised (2000-based) rates.
28
Website address:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm
29