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$138 PSF$0.89 NNNPS F
Market Size 52.7 Mil SF
colliers.com/sandiego
Avg. Asking RateCurrent Qtr
Net AbsorptionYTD
Avg. Sales PriceCurrent Qtr
Market OverviewThe North County San Diego industrial market is largely decentralized and comprised of five cities, including Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, and Vista. Situated 35 miles north of downtown San Diego and 52 miles south of John Wayne Airport in Orange County, the coastal location is a major factor in the area’s appeal to corporate users and its 849,420 residents.
NORTH COUNTY INDUSTRIAL/R&D SUMMARYSelect Markets (Carlsbad, Escondido. Oceanside, San Marcos, Vista), Q3 2016
Q3 2016 Q3 2015 Change
Overall Vacancy (incl. sublease) 3.75% 5.17%
Net Absorption SF 227,687 70,288
Under Construction SF 605,363 737,856
Average Asking Rent (NNN) $0.89 $0.86
Total Vacancy RateAll Product Types - Current Qtr
UnemploymentSD County - Aug. 2016
5.0%
768,958 SF
Under ConstructionCurrent Qtr
605,363 SF
Key Stats > Total industrial/R&D combined vacancy stands at 3.7% at the end of Q3 2016. This is the lowest rate on record and is down 783 basis points from seven years ago.
> Q3 2016 net absorption was a positive 227,687 SF during the quarter adding to a total of 768,958 SF year-to-date.
> Average asking rental rates are going up faster in North County than San Diego County as a whole. The average asking rental rate of $0.89/SF is 3.5% higher than it was a year ago (Q3 2015) whereas the county average has gone up only 1.0% over the same period.
> New construction completions of 415,978 SF were completed in the first nine months of the year. Construction remains robust and an additional 427,027 SF will be completed by year-end.
> There is 605,363 SF under construction in North County which includes Elevate (156,977 SF), Palomar Forum (118,705 SF) and Bressi Ranch (114,522 SF) in Carlsbad along with an expansion for Coca-Cola (193,800 SF) in Oceanside and a building addition of 21,359 SF at 1125 Joshua Way in Vista.
AT A GLANCE
Research & Forecast Report
NORTH SAN DIEGO COUNTY | INDUSTRIALQ3 2016
3.75%
2 San Diego County Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2016 | Industrial | Colliers International
Significant Industrial/R&D Activity - Q3 2016
Tenant Submarket Size (SF) Deal TypeLaird Technologies Carlsbad 62,381 Relocation and expansion from San Marcos.
AutoGenomics, Inc. Carlsbad 59,860 Relocation and downsizing within Carlsbad.
UNITE Eurotherapy, Inc. Carlsbad 54,007 Relocation and expansion from Vista. New building.
Country Malt Group Vista 38,086 New location. Headquartered in Canada.
Schur Star Systems Carlsbad 36,874 Relocation and expansion from Oceanside.
Core Supplement Technology Oceanside 28,053 Relocation within submarket.
Aldila Golf Carlsbad 25,066 Expansion from Poway.
Port Brewing Company San Marcos 24,220 Renewal.
Property/Address Submarket Size (SF) Sale Price $/SF Buyer Seller22 Building Portfolio Escondido, San Marcos, & Rancho Bernardo 514,169 $74,510,000 $145 Westcore Properties TA Realty
1455 Engineer Street Vista 99,307 $11,867,000 $120 First Industrial Realty Trust Gorgee, LLC
3937 Ocean Ranch Blvd Oceanside 91,974 $13,219,000 $144 MagnaFlow Hamann Companies
1812 Aston Avenue Carlsbad 65,310 $10,000,000 $153 RAF Pacifica Group The Blackmore Co.
3186 Lionshead Avenue Carlsbad 20,142 $3,725,000 $185 Gildred Companies Howard's Rug Co.
2145 W Auto Park Way Escondido 28,034 $3,100,000 $111 Green Future Properties LLC Yermian Family Trust
North County Historical Industrial/R&D Market Trends
North County Historical Industrial/R&D Rental RatesAverage Asking Monthly Rate per SF, Triple Net
Supply by Size
11.1%10.0%
8.6%
6.9%
4.4% 3.8%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Absorption Construction Completed Vacancy
Square Feet (Millions) Vacancy Rate
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3
2016
Distribution (NNN) Manufacturing (NNN) Multi-Tenant (Mod. Gross) R&D (NNN)
North County Industrial/R&D OverviewQ3 2016
BldgsTotal
Inventory Vacant SFVacancy
RateYTD
Absorption
Carlsbad 480 14,202,291 973,462 6.85% 185,500
Escondido 643 7,413,029 206,120 2.78% (53,532)
Oceanside 401 8,785,613 171,823 1.96% 502,308
San Marcos 495 8,554,456 389,038 4.55% 48,419
Vista 532 13,729,554 233,817 1.70% 86,263
TOTAL 2,551 52,684,943 1,974,260 3.75% 768,958
Leasing
Sales
79
66
55
185
2115
193 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5,000 to 9,999 SF 10,000 to 19,999 SF 20,000 to 49,999 SF 50,000 to 99,999 SF 100,000+ SF
For Lease For Sale
Num
ber
of S
pace
s/Bu
ildin
gs A
vaila
ble
3colliers.com/sandiego
DIST31.9%MFG
33.3%
IMT13.8%
R&D21.0%
Inventory BreakdownInventory Breakdown Submarket Vacancy
Vacancy by Product Type
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3
2016
Distribution (NNN) Manufacturing (NNN) Multi-Tenant (Mod. Gross) R&D (NNN)
6.55
%
3.91
%
5.74
%
2.63
%
2.47
%
6.27
%
1.79%
2.92
%
3.96
%
3.26
%
5.97
%
1.99%
1.96%
4.16
%
1.57%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Carlsbad Escondido Oceanside San Marcos Vista
Q3 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Vaca
ncy
(%)
Size (SF)
DIST 16,789,888
MFG 17,562,992
IMT 7,267,130
R&D 11,064,933
TOTAL 52,684,943
Under Construction 605,363
Proposed 2,107,065
Total Future Inventory 2,712,428
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW - Q3 2016
San Diego North County Industrial/R&D by Product Type
Existing Properties Net Absorption (SF) New Supply (SF) UC/Proposed
Type BldgsTotal
Inventory Direct SFDirect
%Sublet
SFSublet
% Total SFTotal
% Qtr YTD Qtr YTDUnder
Constr. SFUC
AvailabilityProposed
SF
INDUSTRIAL
Distribution 212 7,823,491 166,219 2.12% 14,776 0.19% 180,995 2.31% 81,152 354,215 0 306,054 193,800 0.0% 1,231,863
Industrial 684 8,966,397 107,982 1.20% 18,720 0.21% 126,702 1.41% 62,066 113,614 0 17,950 0 0.0% 91,000
Manufacturing 933 17,562,992 615,647 3.51% 88,578 0.50% 704,225 4.01% 91,804 226,532 91,974 91,974 135,881 100.0% 700,034
Multi-Tenant 387 7,267,130 247,071 3.40% 1,958 0.03% 249,029 3.43% (33,420) 22,053 0 0 275,682 78.94% 84,168
TOTAL 2,216 41,620,010 1,136,919 2.73% 124,032 0.30% 1,260,951 3.03% 201,602 716,414 91,974 415,978 605,363 58.40% 2,107,065
R&D
R&D 333 11,007,626 544,188 4.94% 111,814 1.02% 656,002 5.96% 26,085 52,544 0 0 0 0.0% 0
Wet Lab 2 57,307 57,307 100.0% 0 0.0% 57,307 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0
TOTAL 335 11,064,933 601,495 5.44% 111,814 1.02% 713,309 6.45% 26,085 52,544 0 0 0 0.0% 0
TOTAL 2,551 52,684,943 1,738,414 3.30% 235,846 0.45% 1,974,260 3.75% 227,687 768,958 91,974 415,978 605,363 58.40% 2,107,065
AIRPORT BUSINESS
PARKINDUSTRY STREET
SEAGATE CORPORATE
CENTER
RANCHO DEL ORO
PACIFIC COASTBUSINESS PARK
OCEAN RANCHCORPORATE CENTER
OCEANSIDE GATEWAY
OCEAN VISTA
VISTA PACIFIC
WEST CARLSBADCARLSBAD RANCH
CARLSBAD RESEARCH
CENTER
CARLSBAD AIRPORT CENTRE
PALOMAR AIRPORT BUSINESS PARK
GATEWAY CENTER
PALOMAR TECH CENTER
CARLSBAD OAKS NORTH
OAK RIDGE BUSINESS CENTER II
CARLSBAD OAKS WEST
NORTH COUNTY INDUSTRIAL PARK
OAK RIDGE BUSINESS CENTER I
VENTURE COMMERCE CENTER
SYCAMORE VISTA
RANCHOVISTA
BUSINESSPARK
PALOMAR CORPORATE
CENTERCARLSBADRACEWAY
SAN MARCOS INDUSTRIAL PARK
TWIN OAKS INDUSTRIAL
RANCHEROS DRIVE
ESCONDIDO AUTO PARK
EAST ESCONDIDO INDUSTRIAL
LA COSTA MEADOWS INDUSTRIAL PARK
UNIVERSITY AREAMEYERS/BARHAM BUSINESS PARK
ESCONDIDO RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGY
CENTERWINERIDGE
BUSINESS PARK
PRESCOTT
BRESSI RANCH CORPORATE
CENTER
CARLSBAD CORPORATE
CENTER LIBERTY GATEWAY
CARLSBAD OAKS EAST
PALOMAR FORUM
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGOTotal Industrial Buildings 2,551
Total Square Footage 52.7 Mil
Total Vacancy 3.75%
Under Construction 605,363 SF
©2016 Colliers International. Information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, however its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The user is required to conduct their own due diligence and verification.
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colliers.com/sandiego
Regional AuthorCHRISTOPHER REUTZResearch Director | San Diego [email protected]
San Diego - North County Industrial TeamCONOR BOYLE+1 760 930 [email protected]
JOE CROTTY+1 760 930 [email protected]
TED CUTHBERT+1 760 930 [email protected]
MIKE ERWIN+1 760 930 [email protected]
TUCKER HOHENSTEIN+1 760 930 [email protected]
JOSH MCFADYEN+1 760 930 [email protected]
TYLER STEMLEY+1 760 930 [email protected]
JOHN WITHERALL+1 760 930 [email protected]
