Upload
byron-lloyd-harmon
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
1/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
Due to the secrecy of the North Korean regime very little is known about its actual
intentions. This makes it difficult to provided explanations for its behavior. To be clear, most
explanations of the Norths intentions are a matter of extrapolation and inference based on
what we perceive as observers from the outside. The challenge is to overcome this
epistemological barrier in order to come to some conclusion regarding the actions of the
North. As outside observers we are given very little evidence to work with; what little we
have consists largely in their inconsistent relations with other countries, their ownership of
nuclear weapons and their maintenance of a massive military.
In this essay I will address different scholars interpretations of North Koreas actions.
I will first address the stability of the North Korean regime and the potential that the
maintenance of the large military and nuclear arms is intended to maintain the regime. Next, I
will examine the hypothesis that the North Korean diplomacy and limited use or threat of
force is a calculated strategy by which the DPRK intends to gain concessions and economic
aid from the outside. Contrastingly I will briefly examine arguments suggesting that the
North Korean government wishes to normalize relations with the United States. Finally, I will
examine arguments that utilize a frame work similar to game theory to explain North Koreas
maintenance of a large military and possible actions the regime might take. It is important to
clarify that by dividing up the arguments into the categories I have my intention is not to
create a false dilemma. That is, the categories are inherently highly interrelated and by-in-
large each argument is not intrinsically exclusive of the others.
The stability or lack thereof, of the North Korean government is a large factor
determining the intentions of the government. To be more specific, by stability I mean to
address the governments ability to maintain order and public support. This portion is not
meant to address stability in terms of consistency of government decisions or the perceived
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
2/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
irrationality behind their actions. A number of authors make arguments against the stability of
the North Korean regime. James J. Przystup in North Korea: Challenges, Interests, and
Policy takes the instability of the regime for granted stating the pending transfer of power
in Pyongyang and the potential for instability as the process plays out were grounds for
concern given the nations nuclear arms. He makes no furtherjustification or argument for
the country being unstable. It is prudent not to make assumptions regarding the nations
stability, therefore it is important to look deeper and consider more in depth arguments. The
significant factors contributing to instability are First, the chronic economic disaster will
challenge them The second challenge is the impact of economic reforms Third, the
society is undergoing a generational change. (Jae-Cheon Lim pg 177-178) Additionally, the
issue of what Scott Snyder calls coalitional struggle is also a potential cause for instability.
Furthermore the main security problem is not America, but the prosperity of the other
Korean Statethe Text would never survive the North Korean masses realization it was
their own blood brothers and not the Yankees who had been blocking reunification all along.
(B.R. Myers pg 167)
The first challenge to Kim Jung Ils government is the deplorable state of the North
Korean economy. Such is the poor state of their economy that North Koreas gross national
income in 2001 is estimated by the bank of Korea to be $15.7 billion. (David Kang pg 104)
Furthermore, during the mid-nineties the country suffered from a series of famines caused by
floods and the change in the former Soviet Union and Chinas food support arrangements. To
provide comparison, Victor Cha cites the CIA stating through the mid-1970s, (the)
calculated GNP per capita for the two Koreas was roughly equal) (pg 29) Whereas the 2009
estimates are for the two countries were $40 billion for North Korean and 1.459 trillion for
South Korea. (CIA World Fact Book)The economy of North Korea is negligible, being
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
3/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
comparatively less than 3% of the South Korean economy. It is generally agreed that poor
economic performance can undermine the perceived legitimacy of a state. Interestingly, B. R.
Myers suggests that Just because Kim is exempted from criticism for the nations difficulties
does not mean that he is denied credit for its successes. The difference to the Kim Il Sung cult
is that the Generals leadership is non-military areas is presented mainly as a matter of
inspiration by example (Myers pg 123) This suggests that Kim Jung Il has found an
ideological loophole that aids in the stability of his regime.
Since coming to power Kim Jung Il has made a number of significant economic
reforms. The famine had a largely unexpected consequence; because the central government
was unable to provide goods for certain counties within the DPRK some North Koreans
discovered the true meaning ofJuche... The necessity to procure food and other essentials
spurred the development of markets in the mid-1990s (Snyder pg 44) Farmers markets
became a significant part of the North Korean economy. Additionally, David Kang goes to
great length outlining the market and outwardly oriented changes the DPRK undertook in the
early 2000s. He states some estimates suggest as much as one-quarter of North Koreas
economy is now private. (pg 105) These economic policy changes are important for the
stability of North Korea for two primary reasons. First, depending on the success of these
changes it could either bolster or undermine the publics faith in the regime. Second, the
further the regime moves toward free market structures the more it undermines the regime
ideologically. That is, if the state has adopted by-and-large free market policies it would
appear that Kim Jung Il has capitulated to the imperialism of the Yankees.
The third challenge to the stability of the DPRK, the generational shift, intuitively
makes sense, though data for it is lacking. Lim argues that the current generation did not
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
4/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
grow up witnesses the regimes previous prosperity and has greater and greater exposure to
the outside world and consequently has a markedly different attitude (Lim pg 177-178).
While he doesnt provide empirical evidence, the possibility of its truth is significant.
Generation shifts have the potential to lead to instability as the population becomes
disillusioned with the regime and consequently agitates against it.
Coalitional struggles also pose a threat to Kim Jung Ils regime. While he does not
provide a definition, coalitional struggle can be summarized as conflict that arises within a
government resulting from factional differences. Scott Snyder suggests there are potentially
two levels of coalitional struggle within North Korea. The first that he suggests is a division
of the central government along the lines ofpragmatists and technocrats in contrast to the
military and nuclear establishment. (Snyder pg 42) He further suggests that if this type of
struggle exists, that the parties are not diametrically opposed, but rather both acting to make
the regime more malleable to the effects of globalization. The next type of struggle he
suggests is the decentralization of power caused by the famine. (Snyder pg 44) Coalitional
struggle has the potential of destabilizing a regime if it results in new discourses that pull
authority away from the governing center. For example if large bodies of the government
advocate an international policy that promotes cooperation with South Korea and the US it
could delegitimize Kim Jung Il. Snyders framework of coalitional struggle is problematic as
he provides little evidence to edify his argument, it seems largely speculation.
The final factor contributing to instability is the growing knowledge North Koreans
have of the lives of South Koreans. As stated by B. R Myers the inevitable spread of public
awareness that for all their anti-Americanis, the South Koreans are happy with their own
republic and do not want to live under Pyongyangs rule. There is no way for the Text to
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
5/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
make sense of this truth (pg 169) Myers makes a strong case that the crux of the DPRK
propagandas message is one of national purity and that all Koreans North and South want to
live united as one nation. The DPRK in its media is dismissive of the legitimacy of the ROK
suggesting its government is merely a puppet for the Americans. (Myers pg 152-154) Under
this frame work the North Korean government is the only legitimate government that is
actively seeking to reunite the two Koreas according to the desires of the Korean nation. If
this foundation to Kim Jung Ils legitimacy is removed, it could severely destabilize the
regime. Furthermore, it is suggested by Lim that the North Korean people are no longer
living in a cave. Since the mid-1990s the have been able to receive information from the
outside world. (Lim pg 177) This destabilizing effect could be comparable to the destruction
of certain national narratives created in the United States. For example the American Dream
or the lack of viable alternatives to liberal democracy and free market capitalism. Depending
on how these narratives or ideas were undermined or destroyed, the legitimacy of the
government would be undermined and instability would ensue. One might argue that because
the destruction of the American Dream was protracted that the effect of its loss was
mitigated, resulting only in the Tea party and the Occupy movements. Another analogy might
be the Catholic Church and the growth of science. Given the gradual progress of science the
Catholic Church was able to modify its dogmas to suit the times. In contrast, if the knowledge
produced by science came about quickly and was widely accepted, it is likely the Church
would not have survived in nearly the same size or shape. This suggests that it is important to
look at the way that the DPRK regime is compensating for the growing awareness of the
South and whether they will be able to modify their national narrative to avoid the potential
instability. In contradiction to his own argument Myers also notes that because the ROK is
now condemned almost exclusively on ethnocentric and moralistic grounds, the Text is free
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
6/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
not only to concede the rival states economic affluence but even to exaggerate it, the evident
aim being to inoculate the masses against future revelations (Myers pg 154-156)
Despite all these factors potentially acting to undermine the regime there is some
evidence to suggest the DPRK is not having a bout of internal instability, furthermore I have
found little evidence to suggest that a lack of stability or perceived potential for instability
motivate the regimes military priority, obtaining of nuclear arms or its sporadic international
relations. To begin with B. R. Myers clearly states The Kim Jung Il regime has always
enjoyed a higher degree of uncoerced mass support than the outside world is willing to
recognize. (Myers pg 117) While he does not evidentially support this claim it is important
to consider given evidence from other authors. David Kang boldly asserts that (pg 104):
Given the horrible shape of the North Korean economy, it might seem surprising that I
argue that the North Korean leaders do not see imminent collapse of their regime. Yet
there is evidence that the North Korean leadershipfar from having lost all hope and
going into a bunker mentalityhas been actively pursuing a number of options
through which it can survive into the future
In other words the economic behavior of North Korea suggests, to David Kang, that the
North Korean Leadership does not see imminent instability. Rather, they are trying to be
proactive in order to strengthen their position and the economy. Additionally, it is important
to wrap our heads around the DPRKs use of its military. It is extremely likely, bordering on
certainty that the North Korean regime maintains prison camps where forced labor takes
place. The journalist, Bradley Martin, in his voluminous workUnder the Loving Care of the
Fatherly Leaderrecords numerous interviews with former prisoners. Furthermore, Lim
quotes a North Korean remarking on the militarys involvement in society (Lim 151):
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
7/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
A number of agricultural farms and industrial factories have been put under the direct
control of the military. Military soldiers stand guard watching grains and vegetables in
the farms. The peasants are engaged only in farming without harvesting [the military
harvests]. In train stations, the soldiers check train tickets
On a different note, I have not encountered any evidence that suggests that the military is
being used against the population in the violent suppression of riots nor armed insurrection.
While it is possible that the military acts as a deterrent to prevent insurrection there is another
alternative. While this may come across as naive, there is the possibility that the military is
being used in much the same way that we use our National Guard units in times of natural
disaster, in this case a national economic disaster. There are similar parallels that we can
draw upon from other nations and time periods that may shed some light on what this might
look like. In the Revolution BetrayedLeon Trotsky discusses his use of military brigades in
mining operations in the Urals to bolster the economy; if you have 1.2 soldiers standing
around you might as well put them to work. Along a similar line, Lim also states Together
with the police, the military became a domestic security force and began to crack down on
non-socialistic phenomena in normal situations. (pg 151) This, in itself, is not altogether
abnormal. From my personal experience, it is not uncommon to see Ukrainian military
personnel in train stations performing security roles. Similarly, the Irish Military, though
small, can be seen in the streets outside of the bank of Ireland securing large money transfers.
Furthermore, Russian military Special Forces are commonly depicted fulfilling the SWAT-
paramilitary equivalent role of assisting police in dire situations. The point being that there is
not necessarily a correlation between a regimes maintenance of a large army, its use in the
civilian sphere and the intent to forcibly maintain regime stability. Considering that the
military is acting as an extension of the police, it suggests that the police would already be
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
8/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
cruelly throwing people into prison camps regardless of having military assistance.
Consequently, it is less certain that there is a correlation between the DPRKs behavior and
the possibility of instability.
The next explanation for the erratic behavior of the DPRK is the possible intent to
coerce benefits from other nations with their sporadic use of force and threat of nuclear arms.
It has been clearly stated that North Korea had engaged in exploratory talks because its
leaders were eager for food, fuel, currency and economic aid from other countries. (Bumiller
Oct 27th2011) The article continues, shortly later, reiterating the North Koreans were
talking simply to extract concessions without planning to give up their nuclear weapons. In
summation the defense secretary stated there is a history here of accommodation and
provocation. (Bumiller) Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of its subsidized
food arrangements with China and Russia, North Korea has had endemic food shortages
which are largely attributed to a lack of arable land, collective farming practices,
poor soil quality, insufficient fertilization, and persistent shortages of tractors and fuel. (CIA
World Factbook) Correlatively, the DPRK has sporadically entered and left aid agreements
over the last decade and a half. Narushige Michishita claims that the DPRK has become more
calculating with its exteriorly perceived sporadic use of force. He summarizes taken as a
whole, North Korean leaders have been highly rational and moderately successful high-risk
takers with idiosyncratic policy objectives (pg 189) He builds later stating the reason
behind this is the dilemma that North Korea faces. It could obtain large gains if it were to
abandon its nuclear and missile programs, but if it did so, it would be left with no effective
policy leverage. (Michishita pg 197) Along similar lines, Victor Cha contends (pg 34):
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
9/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
Depending on how desperate Kim Jong Il assesses the situation, one can imagine
other such incidents in the future. The DPRK might lob several artillery shells into a
Southern city and create chaos each provocation is too minor to prompt all-out war,
but serious enough to raise the incentive for Seoul and Washington to give ground and
negotiate a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
The use of force in order to gain concessions is a strong hypothesis. Its strength is derived
from both our ability to create a coherent and rational narrative for the motivations of the
DPRK regime and the strong evidence supporting this type of behavior over the past decade.
In stark contrast is the argument that the DRPK wishes to normalize relations with the
US. David Kang claims that the answer is a qualified yes He continues, suggesting the
opening up and increased market freedoms of the North Korean economy point in this
direction. (Kang pg 105) Similarly, Narushige Michishita states, referring to the 1990s, that
North Korea attempted to achieve these goals by trying to normalize relations with the
United States and Japan. (pg 187) However, both authors back away from this position.
Kang qualifies it while one might examine only the military and conclude that nothing has
changed in North Korea, in fact the economic sector has changed dramatically. (pg 105)
That is, if we ignore roughly half of the situation, there is the significant possibility that North
Korea wishes to normalize relations. Michishita qualifies his argument stating since the
1990s, North Koreas military-diplomatic campaigns have been about trading military
capabilities for diplomatic and economic gains. (pg 188)
The final explanation is one that frames the DPRKs actions as potentially calculating
the advantages of attacking compared to waiting longer. To begin, this framework the North
Korean regime (in additional to the use of force to coerce international relations) has two
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
10/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
choices, attacking or waiting. Homer Hodge, unambiguously states the offensive character
of Pyongyangs military strategy is demonstrated by the organization and deployment of its
forces. (pg 73) Similarly Victor Cha sets up a type of game theory approach to the DPRKs
decision making process. The two important factors that he elucidates are the time frame and
the perspective both which form North Koreas decisional frame. He contends that during
the 70s time was on the DPRKs side and that they simply had to wait for the US to leave.
However, as time progressed the situation, economically, has become disadvantageous. He
contends that time is not on their side and the longer they wait the direr their situation
becomes. North Koreas perspective according to him is a very risk oriented one because it is
so precarious. He suggests the regime may analyze the situation centering on loss mitigation
rather than potential gains. This means the regime might look at the slight potential gains of
all out conflict compared to the seeming guarantee of further privation and increased poverty
or potential invasion by the US or the ROK and rashly (though rationally from their
perspective) decide to invade. (Victor Cha, Weak but Still Threatening)
Because no one explanation gives a full account for North Koreas behavior I feel it is
prudent to synthesize the stronger elements of each rational into a larger narrative. Initially, I
was inclined to lean toward instability as the predominant explanation; I have reconsidered
this view. Based on the various arguments and facts presented, it would suggest that while
there is clearly some dissent to Kim Jung Ils rule, it is not large enough to explain the
behaviors in question. It is likely that the dissent, while prevalent, is brutally managed and
kept down through the three oppressive tools of the police, the dynamic and nuanced
propaganda, and the unknown quantity of prison camps. Similarly, in conjunction with the
nuanced propaganda the state is attempting to adapt certain market aspects of its economy
and allow limited foreign investment, as a means of lessening the impact of globalization and
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
11/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
the growing awareness of the outside world. Next, combining the tactical use of force in
order to gain concessions and the time framework provided by Victor Cha we can create a
convincing narrative of the DPRK as a calculating regime, that is adopting strategies that it
believes will allow it to continue to exist into the foreseeable future. That is, its choices are
not black and white between attack and wait, but rather it is choosing the line of limited
foreign investment and sporadic threats in order to benefit economically. The difficulty is
assessing the regimes ultimate goals. That is, the degree to which the DPRK incorporates the
reunification of Korea in its plans or whether their plans are purely short term and they no
longer actually consider their actions in this framework. Unfortunately, with the DPRK we
find ourselves continually running into the epistemological boundary that limits our abilities
to concretely know. Consequently, we are largely left with speculation as to their actual
intentions.
Word Count: 3,488
Bibliography:
Bumiller, Elisabeth. "North Korea Is Talking, but Panetta Is Skeptical."New York Times. 27Oct. 2011. Web. 11 Dec. 2011..
Cha, Victor D. "Weak But Still Threatening."Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on
Engagement Strategies. New York: Columbia UP, 2003. 21-40. Print.CIA. "CIA - The World Factbook." Welcome to the CIA Web SiteCentral Intelligence
Agency. CIA, 10 Nov. 2011. Web. 12 Dec. 2011..
Hodge, Homer T. "North Koreas Military Strategy." Parameters 03 Spring (2003): 68-81.Print.
Kang, David C. "Why Are We Afraid of Engagement?"Nuclear North Korea: A Debate onEngagement Strategies. New York: Columbia UP, 2003. 103-15. Print.
Lim, Jae-Cheon. Kim Jong Il's Leadership of North Korea. New York, NY: Routledge, 2009.Print.
Martin, Bradley K. Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the KimDynasty. New York: Thomas Dunne, 2004. Print.
7/29/2019 North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
12/12
ByronPoli 374Dec. 13th
North Koreas Enigmatic behavior.
Michishita, Narushige.North Korea's Military-diplomatic Campaigns, 1966-2008. MiltonPark, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2010. Print.
Myers, B. R. The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves-- And Why It Matters.Brooklyn, New York: Melville House. Print.
Przystu, Jame J. "North Korea: Challenges, Interests, and Policy." Strategic Forum, Institutefor National Strategic Studies National Defense University 250 (2009): 1-5. Print.
Snyder, Scott. "Assessing North Korea's Strategic Intentions and Motivations."North Korea'sForeign Policy Under Kim Jong Il: New Perspectives. Ed. Tae-Hwan Kwak andSeung-Ho Joo. Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2009. 39-56. Print.