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North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update
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Reduce Emissions
Reduce Energy
Lower Costs
Quality of Life
CAEP Update Goals
Mitigate Risk
CAEP Update Goals
Check CAEP Progress
Update CAEP Modelling
Create GHG Tracking Capacity
Confirm Emissions Reduction Target
CAEP Update Workplan
Project
Start
Updated Data
Collection
Data Calibration
in New Model
Modelling of Business
as Usual Scenario (BAU)
BAU Report
Data Methods &
Assumptions Summary
Modelling of Low-
Carbon Scenario (LCS)
Emissions Reduction
Target Confirmation
LCS Presentation
Consultation
Action & Implementation
Planning
CAEP Update
Report
Project
Completion
Action & Modelling
Refinement
Assumptions
+ 9,025 people
- 1,170 vehicles
+ 9,950 jobs
+ 867 homes
31,584
41,533
30,538
39,562
19,40018,231
12,582 13,449
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Changes 2016-2050
Driver Main Effects (Energy and Emissions Focus)
Population Growth Increased: • Energy use in homes and transportation
• Demand for commercial services (increased commercial building energy use)
• Transportation services demand (transit, active transportation infrastructure)
• Water use and waste/wastewater production
Employment Growth Increased: • Demand for commercial services (increased commercial building energy use)
• Commuting and associated energy use
• Transportation services demand (transit, active transportation infrastructure)
• Industrial energy use
Housing Growth
(greenfield)Required: • Electrical grid extension
• Natural gas line extension
• Potable water system extension
• Wastewater system extension
• Transportation infrastructure extension
• Increased waste collection services
• Increased personal vehicle kilometres travelled
Main Emissions Drivers
Emission Sources Considered
out-of-boundarytransportation
Emission Sources Considered
Catalyst Crofton Paper Mill
Not included in inventory and modelling as
emissions dwarf most North Cowichan
emissions.
As a facility that emits over 10,000 tonnes
annually, the mill is required to report to the
Province.
Agriculture
Included in inventory and modelling (Scope 1
emissions).
Most emissions due to livestock.
Agriculture is largely under Provincial
jurisdiction.
1 million Gigajoules (278 megawatt hours) =
20,631
passenger
vehicles
28,571,429
litres of gasoline
consumed
24,211
homes’ electricity
use for one year
9,813
homes’ energy
use for one year
9.259.75
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Current Path Energy and Emissions
+ 500,000 GJ in 2050 (+ 5%)
Total Energy Use Total Emissions
+ 3,300 tonnes in 2050 (+ 1%)
Energy Use Emissions
Current Path Energy and Emissions by Sector
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Current Path Energy and Emissions by Fuel Source
Energy Use Emissions
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Energy Use
Current Path Energy Use by End Use
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-80% of 2007 levels
280,800 tCO2e reductionto achieve target
We arehere
We are goinghere
We want to go here
Emissions Reductions Target: -80% of 2016 levels
Total Emissions
61.1
341.9338.6
Strategy Sectors for Emissions Reductions
Compact, complete communities
Efficient buildings
Low-carbon transportation
Water, Wastewater, and Solid Waste
Local clean energy generation & procurement
Carbon sequestration
Main Context Changes Since Original CAEP
BC Step Code for efficient new buildings
Advances in heating/cooling technology (e.g. heat pumps)
Advances in building retrofit techniques
Increased variety of electric vehicle models
Decreased price of electric vehicles
Increased speed of charging equipment
Decreased prices of renewable energy technologies
Increased availability of energy storage technologies
Main Context Changes Since Original CAEP
Increased ambition and detail of Provincial and Federal government
climate change goals, objectives, policies, and plans
Improved access to data sources (especially industrial)
Increased modelling sophistication
Launch and adoption of a globally accepted emissions inventory reporting protocol
Compact, Complete Communities
Current Path Low-carbon
Spatial distribution Continue current development trajectories in
existing urban containment boundaries.
Focus development in Chemainus (10%),
Crofton (10%), and South End (80%).
Dwelling size Baseline dwelling sizes maintained. Average dwelling size decreases 20% by 2050.
Building type mix New buildings type mix ratios reflect baseline
building mixes.
Only 10% of new buildings are single family
homes in 2050 onward.
Efficient New Buildings
Current Path Low-carbon
New residential buildings
Follow BC Step Code:
20 per cent more energy efficient by 2022.
40 per cent more energy efficient by 2027.
80 per cent more energy efficient by 2032 & net-zero
energy ready.
New buildings are net-zero energy by
2030.
New commercial
buildings Follow BC Step Code.
New buildings are net-zero energy by
2030.
Efficient Existing Buildings
Current Path Low-carbon
Retrofit homes No retrofits.Achieve 50% thermal savings and 50% electrical savings in 100%
of existing dwellings by 2040.
Retrofits of commercial No retrofits.Achieve 50% thermal savings and 50% electrical savings in 100%
of commercial buildings by 2040.
Industry (process
motors/efficiency)
No change to current
efficiencies.Increase efficiency by 50% by 2050.
Municipal buildings retrofitsCurrent efficiencies held
constant.
100% of existing municipal buildings are retrofit to net-zero
emissions by 2030.
Heat PumpsCurrent instances
extrapolated.100% of heating/cooling is electric by 2050.
Solar PVCurrent instances
extrapolated.
90% of homes have 50% of their electricity needs met by solar by
2050.
Water, Wastewater, and Solid Waste
Current Path Low-carbon
Increase pumping efficiency Current intensity held
constant.
Decrease energy used in pumping by 2%/year to 2050.
Increase water efficiency Current intensity held
constant.
Decrease water volume use by 2%/year to 2050.
Waste Diversion Baseline generation and
diversion rates
extrapolated.
90% of residential and ICI waste diverted by 2050.
95% of organic waste diverted by 2030.
Low-carbon Transportation
Current Path Low-carbon
Expand transit Follows BC Transit planning. Transit mode share increases to 25% by 2050.
Electrify transit Follows BC Transit planning. 100% electric and right-sized by 2030.
Electrify municipal fleets None. 100% electric and right-sized by 2030.
Increase/improve cycling &
walking infrastructureMode shares held current. 35% of trips are walking and cycling by 2050.
Electrify personal vehicles3% new personal EVs in personal use
vehicle stock by 2040.
100% of all new car sales are electric models by
2030.
Electrify commercial vehicles Current mix held constant.100% of all new commercial vehicle sales are
electric models by 2030.
Local Clean Energy Generation
Current Path Low-carbon
Solar PV - ground mount No instances. 1MW capacity/year.
District energy Current instances of DE held constant. New DE system added in University Village.
Energy storage None.18.5 MW of storage by 2050 to accommodate 10% of PV generation.
Wind Energy None. None.
Renewable natural gas None.100% of remaining natural gas demand is replaced
with RNG/hydrogen by 2050.
Low-carbon Actions Emissions Reductions
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Low-carbon Actions Emissions Reductions
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Emissions Reductions Target
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3,100 tCO2ereduction gap
Total Emissions
61.1 tCO2e target
277,700 tCO2ereduction
64.2 tCO2e reached
Energy Use Emissions
Low-carbon Energy and Emissions by Sector
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Low carbon Energy and Emissions by Fuel Source
Energy Use Emissions
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Summary
NC has 5 big moves: 1. Electric vehicles (personal and commercial)
2. Replace natural gas with renewable natural gas and hydrogen
3. Increase industrial energy efficiency
4. Increase carbon sequestration in forests
5. Home energy efficiency retrofits (including heat pumps)
These are responsible for 94% of NC’s emissions reductions.
Summary
35,000 tCO2e agricultural emissions remain in 2050
33,000 tCO2e industrial emissions remain in 2050
Largely under federal and
provincial control
NC has 16 small moves that are responsible for 6% of emissions reductions.
All moves are necessary to reach the emissions reduction target.
3,100 tCO2e emissions gap to reach target can be covered by further reductions in transportation,
agriculture, and/or industrial sectors.
8,300 tCO2e remain in transportation sector – potential for further reductions
North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update
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