Upload
flynn-christian
View
17
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
North Carolina A&T State University 2008 College Fed Challenge Aggies Play to Win Members: Channing Banks, Marvin Jones, Colin Okoye, Lauren Patton, Brandon Hunter, Angela Stephens, Maurice Mckoy, Brannon Jones Coaches: Hal W. Snarr and Jennis Biser. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
North Carolina A&T State University
2008 College Fed Challenge
Aggies Play to Win
Members: Channing Banks, Marvin Jones, Colin Okoye,Lauren Patton, Brandon Hunter, Angela Stephens,
Maurice Mckoy, Brannon Jones
Coaches: Hal W. Snarr and Jennis Biser
Consumer Confidence(Consumer Comfort Index—weekly, last 5 years)
Consumer Confidence(Rasmussen Consumer Index--weekly last 5 years)
Labor Market(non-service sectors)
Labor Market(service sectors)
Interest Rates
Sales
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization
Bank Lending
Money
Inflation signals
Inflation signals
Inflation signals
Econ growth, Inflation, and Unemployment
Sept 2008
6.1
4.9
0.8
Augmented Phillips Curve(monthly CPI, 1982-2008)
Dp = -0.6118x + 3.4359
R2 = 0.3076
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0 2 4 6 8 10 1210/086.1 7
1/09
Inflation falls by 1% per month
DInflation = -.4%
Inflation
1.15%
Jan 2008
Inflation could fall by around 0.4% to 1% per month for next 3 months
July 2008
9.3699.391
GDP gap = 9.369 – 9.391 = -2.2%
Real quarterly GDP gap ln(GDP) – ln(GDP potential)
Real quarterly GDP gap ln(GDP) – ln(GDP potential)
9.3699.404
Projected GDP gap = 9.369 – 9.404 = -3.5%
Jan 2009
Current inflation (GDP Deflator)
2.6%
Expected GDP gap
–3.5%
Current GDP gap
–2.2%
Federal Funds Rate Target
* *1.5 0.5 0.5( )ffi r y yp p
Inflation target
2%
Expected future inflation (GDP Deflator)
1.15%
0.975ffi 1.00ffi
Eq real interest rate
2%