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Dr. Amy KnisleyEnvironmental StudiesWarren Wilson College

Leadership North Carolina Class XXVI Environment Session, 03 April 2019

North Carolina: An Environmental Overview

...starting with NC in context...

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ENERGYCLIMATE CHANGE

~500 miles E to W

53,821 miles2

90.5% land, 9.5% water28th in land area

Mt. Mitchell 6,684’

River Miles: RI 1400 SC 29,900

NC 37,800 AK 365,000 VA 49,300

Persons/square mile in 2015:1-NJ (1218) 14-VA (212)

15-NC (207)50-AK (1.3) 19-SC (163)

0’

301 miles of coastline (=VA + SC) 7th of 23 coastal states (TX=6th, OR=8th) 6% of U.S. shoreline (excl. AK)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/USA_North_Carolina_relief_map_cut.jpghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_coastline

Albermarle Snd

Pamlico Snd

Chowan

Tar-Pamlico

Roanoke

Neuse

Cape Fear

Pee Dee

Catawba

Broad

FrenchBroad

Pigeon

TuckaseegeeLittle Tenn.Nantahala

YadkinDan

River Miles: RI 1400 SC 29,900

NC 37,800 AK 365,000 VA 49,300

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/USA_North_Carolina_relief_map_cut.jpg

Population Growth 1940-2018

VA 20%

SC 27%

NC 29%

U.S. 16%

2000-2018

U.S. Census Bureau

State GDP 2000-2017, billions of chained 2012 dollars

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2018

ND=$49b (47th)

NC=$484b (11th)

VA=$464b (13th)

SC=$199b (26th)

ND 107%VA 34%

U.S. 37% NC 36%SC 32%

MI 5%

GDP 2017 vs 2000

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2018

Per Capita Real Personal Income, by State, 2008-2016, chained 2012 dollars

ND=$55,360 (4th)

NC=$45,216 (34th)

VA=$50,180 (18th)

SC=$42,958 (44th)

ND 13%VA 7%

U.S. 10% NC 4%SC 12%

MI 16%

RPI 2016 vs 2008

Question: Is economic growth good

for the environment?

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CLIMATE+ ENERGY

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Fair land conservationRising recycling rates

Conservation fundingHazardous waste sites

MSW capacity

U.S. Department of Agriculture. 2018. Summary Report: 2015 National Resources Inventory. Excludes Alaska

Developed land 1982-2015VA +75%

U.S. +60% NC +106%SC +98%

Land Use

National Wetlands Inventory, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2017)

FL 28%

NC 16%

SC 20%

VA 6%

WI 14%

AK 42%

Wetlands Loss in Coterminous U.S.

US Fish and Wildlife Service

NC has lost about 50% of its wetlands, on par with nation. ~95% of the remaining 5.5m acres are in the coastal plain. Coastal loss slowed dramatically since 1985 “Swampbuster.”

Brad Rich, “A Disturbing Report about Wetlands” (Dec 2013)

Wetlands, est. 2007

USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (2012), https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/

AK 35.2%

NV 3.2%VA 62.9%

NC 59.7%

SC 68.2%

MI 55.6%

WA 52.7%

On average, 21.5% of forest land has been lost in the U.S. since 1630. DE, IN and OH are estimated to have lost 60% or more; other states,

such as ID and CO, have lost 5% or less. But in the 20th century, steady state or reforestation have been the trend. 34 of 50 states

have seen gains averaging 8% between 1920 and 2012.

Net forested land, 1920 to 2012:MD = 0% VA = 6.6%US = 4% NC = 2.2%VT = 26% SC = 14.7%

Forest, 2012

“Baseline Estimates of Carbon Stocks in Forests and Harvested Wood Products for National Forest System Units; Southern Region.” USDA Forest Service (2015) http://www.fs.fed.us/climatechange/documents/SouthernRegionCarbonAssessmentTwoBaselines.pd

One Tg (teragram) = 1 trillion grams! 1 paperclip = 1 gram!

Great Pyramid of Giza = 6 Tg.

Carbon Sequestered in southern forests, 2015

AL, KY, GA, TN, FL, LA, MS, VA, AR, OK, NC, SC, TX, P.R. 4 Natl For units, 2 special units

USGS Protected Areas Data Portal (2017): https://gapanalysis.usgs.gov/padus/data/statistics/USGS Protected Areas Database/Viewer: https://maps.usgs.gov/padus/

AK 55% (35%)

NV 80% (15%) VA 10% (4%)

NC 9% (4%)

SC 8% (4%)

MN 23% (7%)

ME 11% (5%)

“...15-30% of the land in any state or ecoregion will need to be [protected] in order for our native biodiversity to be effectively

conserved.” Conservation in America: A Status Report. Defenders of Wildlife (2002)

TX 3% (2%)

Protected Land, 2017

What is “development”?

Alteration of natural land- and water-forms to enable ongoing human habitation and use. Economic productivity and gain is usually an

important consideration in land development.

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N.C. Building Permits issued 1960-2018, in thousands

What is “development”?

Hog and Pig Sales as % of Agricultural Sales, by County, 2012

Pork Checkoff. State Rankings by Hog and Pig Inventory. https://www.pork.org/facts/stats/structure-and-productivity/state-rankings-by-hogs-and-pigs-inventory/

In 2018, North Carolina was home to 8.9 million hogs, second only to Iowa with 22.6 million.

In 2018 NC was home to 0.8 hog per person; IA housed 7.2 hogs per person.

2018 NC land conservation trust fund awards:Clean Water Management ($24.6m; $65m req. FY19)Parks and Recreation ($28.3m (FY17))Agricultural Dev. & Farmland Preservation ($4.6m)

NC Natl Wild and Scenic Rivers: New, Chattooga, Lumber, and

HorsepastureOver 100 eligible rivers.

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In FY 2008 the trust funds had $289 million available. Funding levels crashed until FY 2013, which saw modest increases. Total FY 2018 funding for the the three trust funds was about $42.5 million, and FY 2019 funding is $32.5m. Conservation Trust for NC, 2018.

What is “land conservation”?

In the U.S., both the total amount of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) produced, and per person rates, have increased over time.

Since the mid-1980s, recycling rates have increased considerably.

Solid Waste

EPA National Overview: Fact and Figures on Materials, Wastes, Recycling (2015)

1990 2005 2010 2015MSW/Person/Day: U.S. 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.5MSW/Person/Day: N.C. 5.6 7.2 5.1 6.1Recycling Rate: U.S. 16% 31% 34% 35%Recycling Rate: N.C. 6% 11% 14% 15%

EPA. Advancing Sustainable Materials Management: Facts and Figures (2015)NC DEQ, Div of Waste Management. Legislative Reports (2017)

NC Solid Waste, 2016-17• 11,385,939 tons of waste, total• 1,678,882 tons of CCR’s from 6 electrical plants

• 48 municipal waste landfills• 51 construction and demolition landfills• 15 industrial landfills

• 42 years of landfill capacity remaining

• 47 composting operations• 16 mulching operations• 7 commercial medical waste operators• 0 waste-to-energy incinerators

Solid Waste

EPA. Advancing Sustainable Materials Management: Facts and Figures (2015)NC DEQ, Div of Waste Management. Legislative Reports (2017)

How many Waste To Energy incinerators are there in N.C.?

71 WTE plants0.5% of U.S. electricity

reduce waste volume by ~85%

Check out this 2017 story about Florida’s newest WTE plant.

NC DEQ. Div of Waste Management Legislative Report (2017).

Question: Would you like to see a Waste-

To-Energy plant in N.C.?

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Fair land conservationRising recycling rates

Conservation fundingGrowing waste stream

• Support conservation funding• Support local land conservation projects.• Support local composting.

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CLIMATE+ ENERGY•

Question: What are the main

causes of air pollution?

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23Steady NAAQS improvement

Localized noncompliance

Hazardous air pollutants

National Ambient Air Quality Standards: Six “Criteria Pollutants”

Hazardous Air Pollutants

187 Federally-listed:Metals, such as cadmium, mercury, chromium, and lead compounds.Solvents, such as trichloroethylene, hexane, and methylene chloride.Others, such as benzene, dioxin, asbestos, and toluene.

NC has added 21, including acetic, nitric and sulfuric acids; ammonia; bromine.

Air quality is managed under the framework of the 1970 Clean Air Act

Ozone (03) (~30)

Particulate Matter 2.5 (~25)

Particulate Matter 10.0 (~12)

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) (~12)

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) (~6)Carbon Monoxide (CO) (~4)

Nitrogen Oxides (NOy) (~2)

Live track NC AQ monitors here:https://deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/air-quality/air-quality-monitoring

Locations of NC Ambient Air Quality Monitors

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Map 1: NC Current Nonattainment and Maintenance Areas

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National Hazardous Air Pollutant Standards: 187 regulated “Air Toxics”

2011 National Air Toxics Assessment – evaluates 138 air toxics for which EPA has health benchmarks; estimates “excess” cancer and non-cancer health risks attributable to them. In each census tract, maximum exposure is assumed over a 70 year lifetime.

Elevated risk of cancer, persons per million (2011)

U.S. 39.9

NC 41.0 VA 41.6 SC 43.8 D.C. 59.7

WY 19.8

LA is home to 8 of the 10 riskiest census tracts in the country, ranging from 4 to 20 times the average national risk.

58% of NC census tracts have risk above the national average; compared to 49% of VA tracts, and 74% of SC tracts.

97% of Mecklenburg County is above the national average; 6% is at 1.5 times the national average, or higher.

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It really is OK to insist on clean air.

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CLIMATE+ ENERGY

NC DENR, State of the Environment Report 2011, p33

WATER

Water Quality

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2007 estimates, gallons:273,366,016-Groundwater15,128,634,713-Surface water

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Water quality is managed under the framework of the 1972 Clean Water Act

Duke Power Asheville Plant NPDES permit (2006)re “Outfall 001” (Ash Pond Treatment System)

2679 CAFO permits~500 farm owners~4400 lagoons~16.7 million swine

National Pollution Discharge Elimination System permits.

Ambient water quality standards, based on use classification.

NC DENR, State of the Environment Report 2011, pp36-37

1970s 1980s

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39% of the state’s surface

waters are considered “impaired.”

NC DENR, State of the Environment Report 2011, p41

Groundwater is in much better shape.

Southern Environmental Law Center (2016)

A couple of key issues...coal ash...

Waterkeeper Alliance summary of NC swine (and other) CAFO concerns.

In a letter dated 1/12/2017, from the U.S. EPA’s External Civil Rights division to the N.C. DEQ, EPA expressed “deep concern” that DEQ’s use of a “general permit” for more than 2,200 industrial hog operations has a disparate, discriminatory impact on African American, Latino, and Native American communities in eastern North Carolina.

...and remember the hog farms...?

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Threats to Coastal Habitat

White=no impact/unknown

Yellow=minor impact

Orange=moderate impact

Red=major impact

Upland development.Nutrients and eutrophication.Nonpoint sources.Toxic chemicals.

NC DENR Div of Marine Fisheries coastal water quality sampling, interactive map: http://portal.ncdenr.org/web/mf/testing-sites

NC DENR, State of the Environment Report 2011, p52

NC DENR, State of the Environment Report 2011, p33

We have enough water, and it is mostly clean.

A lot of it is dirty, and we must plan

for shortages.

It’s OK to ask farming and utilities to be

accountable.

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CLIMATE+ ENERGY

Question: What can you do about

climate change?

U.S. Energy Consumption, Quadrillion Btus, 1949-2015by

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N.C. Energy Consumption, Trillion Btus, 1960-2014by

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U.S. Energy Consumption PER CAPITA, Million Btus, 1949-2015by

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From 1980 to 2015, per capita energy consumption averaged 330 million Btus/year. During those 35 years, only 7 varied more than 5% from the 330

million Btu mark. Five of the 7 were 2011-2015, ranging 6% to 9% below average.

2016 Energy UsemBtu/Capita

U.S. EIA (2018)

WY 860 (2)

RI176 (51)

SC 333 (18)

NC 251 (37)

VA 277 (31)CA 199 (48)

2014 Energy-Related CO2 emission

metric tons/Capita

WY 112.3 (1)NY 8.6 (50)

SC 15.5 (28)

NC 12.8 (34)

VA 12.5 (38)

CA 9.2 (49)

U.S. RENEWABLE Energy Consumption PER CAPITA, Million Btus, 1960-2015by

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VA 6.7% (33d)

NC 7.9% (28th)

SC 9.0% (25th)

ME 38.3% (3d)

US EIA, State Reports (2015)

CA 11.5% (16th)

LA 3.7% (46th)

Renewables, % of State Energy Use, 2015

Energy trends, especially in electricity, are favorable for renewables. But policy makes a big difference.

American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy. State Policy Scorecard program.State Government: Financial incentives e.g. tax credits for energy efficient homes/renovations; credits for renewable energy production; zoning incentivizing wind and solar; state fleet efficiency.Building: Building efficiency codes and compliance with them.Combined Heat and Power: Policies and financial incentives that encourage CHP at multiple scales.Utilities: Policies requiring utilities to make the energy mix green and efficient; financial incentives to support this; disclosure rules for utilities and public access to information; strong compliance.Transportation: Tailpipe emissions rules and compliance; mass transit funding and provision.Appliance Standards: Efficiency standards and compliance, from microwaves to furnaces.

2018

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“Given the range of possible rise scenarios and their associated levels of plausibility, the Science Panel recommends that a rise of 1 meter

(39 inches) be adopted as the amount of anticipated rise by 2100, for policy development and planning purposes.” (11)

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, sea level rise

along the coast between NC and MA is accelerating at three

to four times the global rate.

Policy has successfully driven market forces in the direction of renewables.

And it can do more!!

Look into solarizing your house!Buy a used electric vehicle!

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Thanks!Questions?

CLIMATE+ ENERGY

Dr. Amy KnisleyEnvironmental StudiesWarren Wilson Collegeaknisley@warren-wilson.edu

NC Agricultural Development and Farmland Preservation Trust (2013)

NC DEQ, Pre-Regulatory Landfills map (2016)

Total “Closed” “Open”Old landfills 677 8 669Inactive hazardous 2435 556 1879

3112 564 2548Plus 39 “Superfund” sites.

NC Hazardous Waste sites, as of 2016

NC DEQ , Inactive Hazardous Sites Report to the Legislature (2016).OLD LANDFILL SITES80% “high risk” (within 1000’ of water supply, home, school, church, day care) $9.2m funding (from state-wide tax) during FY16. Started assessment on 7 sites; continued assessment on 53; continued remediation on 29; and completed (drumroll) 3 sites.

NC DEQ , Inactive Haz Waste Sites Map (2016)

Total “Closed” “Open”Old landfills 677 8 669Inactive hazardous 2435 556 1879

3112 564 2548Plus 39 “Superfund” sites.

NC Hazardous Waste sites, as of 2016

NC DEQ , Inactive Hazardous Sites Report to the Legislature (2016).INACTIVE HAZARDOUS SITES360 (~20%) of the open sites are “orphaned.” 314 of those are “high risk” $400,000 annual appropriations for these sites; plus bankruptcy recoveries. $670,500 estimated for each cleanup (so $241m needed).