Normal Atmosphere - Ocean Normal Atmosphere - Ocean CirculationCirculation

Normal Atmosphere - Ocean Normal Atmosphere - Ocean CirculationCirculation

wind

W E

W E

Warm

Warm

Cold

Cold

Pacific ocean

Pacific ocean

1 m

Normal

El Niño

CirculatiCirculation on

Changes Changes AssociatAssociated with ed with El NiñoEl Niño

SST & SST & PrecipPrecip

. . ChangChang

es es During During

El El NiñoNiño

NOAA/PMEL/TAO

Palau, much rain

Palau, dry

Cold water

Warm waterNormal

El Niño

Palau

E. Pacific Warming During ‘82-3 E. Pacific Warming During ‘82-3 El NiñoEl Niño

NOAA-CIRES

El Niño Nov-Mar Precipitation El Niño Nov-Mar Precipitation AnomalyAnomaly

PalauPalau

NOAA-CIRES

Global Impacts of Global Impacts of ElNiñoElNiño

USDA

El Niño El Niño in Palau: in Palau: Drought Drought

1998

2000

Photos courtesy of Dr.Pat Colin

Drought in Drought in PalauPalau

1998 El 1998 El NiñoNiño

Brush FiresPhotos courtesy of Dr.Pat Colin

MathematiMathematical cal

Models: El Models: El Niños Niños More More

Frequent Frequent & Intense & Intense in Warmer in Warmer

ClimateClimate

• Need Need historical historical climate climate

records to records to evaluate this…evaluate this…

““The farther backward The farther backward you can look, the you can look, the

farther forward you farther forward you are likely to see.”are likely to see.”

-Winston Churchill-Winston Churchill

Occurrence of El Niño Occurrence of El Niño Increased Over Last Increased Over Last

10,000 Years10,000 Years

Moy et al. (2002) Nature 420:162-165.