Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005

Norges Bank

1

Executive Board meeting11 August 2005

Norges Bank

2

Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

World NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

Japan Asiaexcl.

Japan 1)

EasternEurope

LatinAmerica

Forecasts March Forecasts JuneForecasts July

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

World NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

Japan Asiaexcl.

Japan 1)

EasternEurope

LatinAmerica

Forecasts March Forecasts JuneForecasts July

Source: Consensus Forecasts

2005 2006

1) China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines

Norges Bank

3Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat

Quarterly change in US GDPAnnualised contribution to growth in volume.

Per cent. Seasonally adjusted

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Private consumption Private investment

Inventories Net exports

Public consumption and investment GDP

Norges Bank

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Source: EcoWin / National statistics

CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area, and Japan

Percentage change on same month previous year

US

Euro area

Japan

UK Germany

Norges Bank

5

Consumer prices in the Nordic countriesPercentage change on same month previous year

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2002 2003 2004 2005

-1

0

1

2

3

4


Norway (CPI-ATE)

Sweden(UND1X)

Denmark*Sweden

(UND1X excl. energy)

* CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco

Finland

Norges Bank

6

Developments in 10-year government bond yields

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Germany

Norway

US

IR

China

London:


Norges Bank

7

Movements in stock exchange sub-indices. Total return, indexed. 3 Jan 2005 = 100

80

100

120

140

160

jan mar mai jul

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan Mar May Jul

Source: EcoWin1) Calculated as the average of the IT and telecom indices2) Estimated as the average of the industrials and materials indices

Norway World

ICT1)

Financials

Industrials 2)

Energy

ICT1)

FinancialsIndustrials

Energy

Norges Bank

8

Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06

0

1

2

3

4

5

Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

US

Euro area

9 August

28 June

Sweden

UK

Norges Bank

9

Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily figures, USD per barrel. Jan 2002 – Aug 2005

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

10

20

30

40

50

60

708 August

Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

24 June (IR 2/05)

Norges Bank

10

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Difference between oil price for delivery next month and 6-7 years ahead

USD per barrel of light crude. Daily figures. Jan 2004 – Aug 2005

2005

2004

Sources: EcoWin/ NYMEX

Norges Bank

11

Oil production in NorwayMillion barrels per day. Monthly figures, Jan 2000 – Jun 2005

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

Projection from the Norwegian Petroleum

Directorate

Production

Norges Bank

12

CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 2/05 (broken

line).12-month rise. Per cent

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Dec 03 Apr 04 Aug 04 Dec 04 Apr 05 Aug 05

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)

1) Norges Bank's projections

Imported consumer goods (0.3)

CPI-ATE

Norges Bank

13

Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and in I-44

4-quarter change. Per cent. 98 Q1– 05 Q2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1) Norges Bank's projections: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars

I-44

Imported consumer goodsin External Trade Statistics1)

Imported consumer goods in the CPI2)


Norges Bank

14

2.26

2.27

2.28

2.29

2.30

2.31

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

77

78

79

80

81

Number employed in millions and average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week

(37.5 hours). Seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistics Norway

Employed (left-hand scale)

Average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week

(right-hand scale)

Norges Bank

15

House prices Percentage change on same month previous year

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)

Norges Bank

16

Business tendency surveyBusiness climate index

Seasonally differentiated diffusion index

Source: Statistics Norway

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Norges Bank

17

Total debt non-fin. enterprises mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households

and non-financial enterprises (C2).12-month change. Per cent

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Households (C2)

Non-financial enterprises (C2)

Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3)

Norges Bank

18

3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)

A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

85

88

91

94

97

100

103

Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg

I-44 (right-hand scale)

Weighted 3-month interest rate differential

(left-hand scale)

8 August 2005

28 June 2005

Norges Bank

19

Projected CPI-ATE and the output gap in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


CPI-ATE

Output gap

Documents

Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005