Nordic meeting for trade in goods and services

16-18 September, Thorshavn, Far Oe

Ger Stam

28th of August 2014

Transition to BPM6:

the Dutch case

Outline

BPM6 transition SN

– Who involved, how organized?

– ITGS issues: relative modest change

– ITSS issues: drastic change‐ Improved and altered processes in-, through- and

output (big bang)

– Actual issues

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Who involved, how organized?

– Steering group National accounts, Central Bank, ITGS and ITSS: ESA2010 & BPM6, resulting in co-operation on various data processes

– Revision NA with new basic year 2010

– Project ITGS and ITSS (organisationally closer related within SN)

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Who involved, how organized?

– Project ITSS & ITGS‐ Comply with all relevant regulations for International

Trade in Services (ITS) and International Trade in Goods (ITG)

‐ Provide all stakeholders with the necessary information

‐ Methodological improvements

‐ ESA2010 already implemented in 2011 for the Structural Business Surveys and Balance-sheet Survey: consistency aimed with ITGS/ITSS for large enterprises

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ITGS issues

Data collection ITGS not fundamentally changed:– still based upon customs information and own

questionnaire on goods crossing the border

ESA2010/BPM6: corrections necessary for:• goods crossing the border but no economic

ownership transfer from/to NL• goods not crossing the border but economic

ownership transfer from/to NL

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ITGS issues

BPM6 urges for economic in stead of juridical ownership:

– Goods sent abroad for processing ‐ excluded from im- and exports ITGS

– Production Abroad– production under foreign enterprise control in NL is

not trade

– Exports of goods previously imported / goods in quasi-transit

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ITGS issues

Altered ITGS data processes:

– Goods procured in ports by carriers• Import newly estimated• Improved estimation method for export

– Merchanting (incl. via customs warehouse )• Part of ITGS now• Data collection by ITSS

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ITSS issues

Altered in-, through- and output processes:

– Lot of new and changed ITSS items in BPM6 methodology

– New survey sampling design SME (use of VAT-registration)

– New questionnaire (design)– Abolishment X12-ARIMA estimations: replaced by

own data collection or applying new external sources

– Surveys of the Dutch Central Bank (SPE and MFI data)

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ITSS issues

Altered in-, through- and output processes:

– Travel adapted for business travel, border & seasonal workers, health & education related travel etc.

– CIF/FOB correction for ITGS maintained, but new approach ITSS for ‘FIT adjustment’ (Freight Insurance and Transport Adjustment)

–  Amendment ICT systems– New data dissemination scheme

ITSS issues: new & changed service items

Changed or new ITSS items in BPM6 (some

examples)

– New classification for services of manufacturing services and maintenance & repair

– The sales of research and development such as patents and copyrights: treated now as produced assets and included in services.

– Financial services:‐ ‘Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly

Measured’ (FISIM) to be recorded as a service. Transactions between banks are removed, so lower values

than before and ‘Buying and selling spreads’ added.

– ‘Services between affiliated enterprises, n.i.e.’ removed

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Checking source data

Population dataAnnual ITS Business Register process

Quarterly Streamlined ITS process

ITS- loading and roughly checking

Imputation

Weighing and additional

estimation SME

Detailing

Automatic process

Primary source data LE and SME

Secondary source data

Macro-editing (tool: Macroview)

ITS– loading and basic compilation

ProcessOutput

Quarterly and annual ITS Output process

Direct data collection SN

External sources

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ITSS issues ITS: questionnaires

Changed questionnaire design :LE and SME:

– Use 6-digit Eurostat codes for services– Service category descriptions– Switching board old/new services (for transition)– Questionnaire design SME – Communication

SPE and MFI:– CB: adaption of questionnaires and explanations,

including delineation of the enterprise population with SN

ITSS issues: SME sample design

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Design of population and sample 2014:

– Based upon the GBR: 1.4 mln enterprises– Gross selection 261.000 enterprises

detected from various sources (most important are):

• VAT services and merchanting 2013 q1-3 en 2012 q4 (in total 239.000 enterprises!)

• International payments data 2013 q1-3 and 2012 q4• Positive response SME from year 2013 q 1-3 en 2012

q4

ITSS issues: SME sample design

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Design of population and sample 2014:

– Reduction of the gross selection by excluding probably fractional ITS-traders using various criteria (80% of the enterprises and only 6% of im- en export)

– Net population frame: 51 700 enterprises probably active in ITS (= sample frame)

ITSS issues: SME sample design ITSS

Design of population and sample 2014:

– Reduced number of 39 strata by aggregated combination:

‐ SIC code of enterprise (19 groups) divided into 3 groups: • Integral part of largest expected ITSS sized

enterprises (≥ 10 mln. € im ports + exports, based upon VAT data and –if present- ITSS data or otherwise selected)

• Large expected ITSS sized enterprises (≥ 1 mln. € im ports + exports, based upon VAT data and –if present- ITSS data )

• Other, expected smaller ITSS sized enterprises15

ITSS issues: SME sample design ITSS

Design of population and sample 2014:

– Allocation SME (how many units are how sampled):

‐ 5 000 enterprises sampled (by use of Neyman allocation) out of almost 52 000 enterprises (= net population)

‐ mean sample ratio is 1 out of 10 enterprises‐ varies over strata from 1:1 (complete

covered stratum) to 1: 47 (stratum ‘Trade (SIC code), small as for ITSS') 16

ITSS issues: synthetic estimations diminished

Abolition ITSS X12-Arima estimations (time series estimations)

– Financial services– Insurance services– Trade related services– Government services– Merchanting (now positive & negative exports of goods)

– Major change for insurances services. Mix of SN & CB data of insurance companies for exports of all kinds of insurances.

– Financial services will be mix of direct SN/CB data collection. Partly new synthetic estimation for ‘Buying & selling spreads’. 17

ITSS issues: IT systems adapted

Three IT systems adapted (input,

throughput, analysis)

– Design and building changes in the system, by special (SN) IT department and related ITS business workers

– Adjustment of the analysis tool Macro-view queries to the new classification.

– Conversion of historical data in throughput system (2009-2013) needed, esp. for editing purposes. 18

Actual issues

– Further efforts needed for coherence between related ITGS and ITSS items

– New levels of outcomes ITSS

– Back-casting and publication ITSSPublication of NA, BoP, ITGS and ITSS on different moments and with different formats and content

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Questions, remarks or suggestions?

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