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IR 21 April 2016 Yara International ASA 1Q 2016 roadshow Thor Giæver, IR

Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

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Page 1: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Yara International ASA

1Q 2016 roadshow

Thor Giæver, IR

Page 2: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Integrated business model creates value through scale, flexibility

and value chain presence

2 IR – 01 March 2016

Page 3: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Yara’s products, solutions and knowledge create value for

customers, shareholders and society

3

3Q2015 1Q2015

“The N-sensor together with the

N-tester ensures that the fertilizer is

applied exactly where it is needed”

“We need to make sure that our

product is the best they can get,

and to be certain of this, we need a

supplier like Yara that we can trust

throughout the entire value chain”

“Yara’s fertilizer increases

my yield by 20-30% and

improves the quality of my

products, my customers

have created a separate

quality category for my

product”

IR – 01 March 2016

Page 4: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Safe operations is our first priority

4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Mar-16

TRI1

2

1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours

2) OFD and Galvani included in statistics from January 2016

Page 5: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Summary first quarter

5

Strong results in a challenging market

Global fertilizer deliveries 5% lower, Brazil deliveries 15% higher

Negative price effects offset by lower energy prices and currency effects

Improved production reliability

Strong Industrial result

Page 6: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Earnings per share*

6

8.04

6.69 5.66

0.23

6.40

8.26

6.18 6.74

2.65

10.59

14.56

1.58

10.22

8.52

7.97

5.62

2.65

7.03 7.74 7.62

8.17

10.51 9.58

7.41

3.97

9.14

NOK 20.67 27.59 29.38 10.22

Annual 2013 2014 2015 2016

*Average number of shares for 1Q 2016: 274.1 million (1Q 2015: 275.5 million).

EPS excluding currency and

special items

Page 7: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

EBITDA development

7

533

2,051

1,186

702

5,055

954

4,794

Other

3

Special

items

Currency Price/margin Volume EBITDA 1Q15 EBITDA 1Q16 Energy cost

NOK millions

Page 8: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Improved production reliability

8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Kilotons

2016 2015 2013 2014

Ammonia1

* Including share of equity-accounted investees

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Kilotons

Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer

2015 2013 2014 2016

Finished fertilizer & industrial products1

Page 9: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Brazil season-to-date fertilizer deliveries

Brazil: industry deliveries up 7%, Yara up 15%

9

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Th

ou

san

ds

+15%

+7%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Yara Brazil 1Q value-added product deliveries Kilotons Kilotons

Yara ex

Galvani Industry Galvani

Source: ANDA, Yara

Page 10: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016 10

Rio Grande expansion and operational improvement

Consolidation of 3 sites reduces fixed

cost and maintenance investments

Increased fertilizer production and

blending capacity

Improved safety and lower unit cost

through:

– Improved material flows

– Automated bagging process

Increased product quality through

improved handling and storage

conditions

Million tons

0.9

1.6

0.8

2.6

1.21.1

Blending Granulation Acidulation

New capacity

“As is” capacity

RIG 3 RIG 1

RIG 2

Page 11: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Lower exports from China, higher domestic price

11

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

USD/t

Urea price China (inland proxy price) Urea fob Black Sea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Chinese exports and urea price Declining urea pricing Black Sea

USD/t Kilotons

Source: BOABC, CFMW

Page 12: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Stable European nitrate premium Based on Egypt granular urea reference, and excluding nitrate with sulphur

12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16

USD/t

Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices)

CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy

Yara EU gas cost *20

Nitrate

premium

above urea Value above

ammonia

Value

above gas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16

European nitrate premium2 (quarterly Yara realized) USD/t

2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea

publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD

per ton of CAN equivalents. 1) All prices in urea equivalents

Page 13: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Strong base, with further improvement potential

13

Strong base:

• Integrated business model

• Strong unified brand

• Dedicated and motivated

employees

• Unrivalled knowledge base

• Strong commercial acumen

• Complete product portfolio

• Global production and sales

footprint

Improvement opportunities: • Safety

• Production regularity

• Employee alignment

• Operational cost

• Organizational set-up

and productivity

• Positioning

IR – 01 March 2016

Page 14: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

CEO priorities going forward

14

Positioning Operations Profitable growth

• Sharpen focus on growth in

core business areas and

geographies

• Pursue transformational

profitable growth opportunities

• Build organizational growth

capability and capacity

• Continue building culture where

all accidents are preventable

• Establish corporate

improvement program and

targets

• Improve and standardize core

processes

• Promote mineral fertilizer role in

solving global food challenges

• Improve positioning towards key

stakeholders

• Take leading roles in key global

forums

Page 15: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Page 16: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Season-to-date Europe and US nitrogen fertilizer

industry deliveries at normal level Season-to-date deliveries (9 months ending 31 March)

16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16

Domestic production Imports

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16

Domestic production Imports

West Europe US Million tons N Million tons N

-2% -4%

Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.

Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates

Page 17: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Lower natural gas cost in Europe

17

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

USD/ MMBtu

TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe

Yara European gas & oil cost Change in spot energy cost

(1,314)

(588)

(151)

(588)

(923)

(1,150)

(1,000)

(1,400)

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

NOK millions

April 2016 estimate* Actual

Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 12 April 2016

Page 18: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Value above

raw material Weighted average global

premium above blend cost

Stable commodity phosphate margins and solid NPK

compound premiums

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16

USD/t Phosphate upgrading margins

DAP, fob USG

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16

USD/t NPK premium over blend1

1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of

transport and handling cost.

Rock, fob North Africa *1.4

NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16

USD/t NPK premium over blend1

DAP, CIF inland Germany

MOP, CIF inland Germany

Urea, CIF inland Germany

Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany

Page 19: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Net interest-bearing debt development

19

1,002

3,8842,454

Net debt

Mar 16

8,465

Other

401

FX gain

349

Net operating

capital change

Dividends

from equity-

accounted

investees

315

Cash earnings* Share

buy/backs

93

Investments net Net debt

Dec 15

11,868

* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges

NOK millions

Page 20: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Stable earnings for Crop Nutrition and Industrial

20

1,843 1,778

414

423

2,884

2,845

1,868 1,778

414

423

3,808

2,840

1Q15 1Q16

EBITDA

(NOK millions)

EBITDA excluding special items

Crop Nutrition Industrial Production

Page 21: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Strong growth pipeline

21

1) Yara’s share of capex

8.7

0.4

6.0

14.4

2015

2.4

2016

1.3

4.1

5.6

17.9

6.3

2017

11.0

0.8 1.3

7.7

5.6

2018

4.2

3.3

0.9

M&A

Cost&capacity improvements

Maintenance

Committed growth

NOK bn

Capex plan1

2) Finished fertilizer and industrial products, excl. bulk blends. Including Yara share of production in

JVs. 2015 numbers excl. Growhow UK (~300 kt)

3) Committed projects only. TAN Pilbara: 160 kt, Porsgrunn: 250kt, Glomfjord: 185kt, Uusikapunki:

250kt, Köping: 90kt, Sluiskil: net 160kt, Galvani (Salitre - 60% of ~ 2 mill.tons)

4) Excl. Growhow UK (~200 kt). Including 100% ownership in Pilbara NH3 plant

5) Rio Grande expansion ads 0.5 million tons SSP and 1 million ton blends by 2020

0.8

2.3

Production

end 2018

22.1

Committed

growth3

Regularity

improvement

Production

20152

18.9

Production growth 2015 - end 20185

0.7

8.3

7.2

Production

end 2018

BASF JV

0.5

Regularity

improvement

Production

20154

Finished fertilizer Ammonia

Mill.tons

Page 22: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Yara 1Q fertilizer sales by market and product

22

3,008

1,377

474 901

420 385

2,733

1,589

429 735

400 342

Europe Brazil Latin America North America Asia Africa

1Q15 1Q16

1,414

768

1,595 1,375

716 418 277

1,308

879

1,445 1,175

786

354 283

Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CNNPK compounds1 NPK blends1

1) Yara produced NPK compound and NPK blends

Kilotons

Page 23: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries

23

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Yara-produced YaraMila deliveries

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries Kilotons

Outside Europe Europe Outside Europe Europe

Kilotons

Page 24: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Strong premium product deliveries in Brazil; weaker

elsewhere

24

1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

263

203

123

81

240

292 296

199

33

188

225

401

197

30

172

Asia Brazil LatinAmerica excl.

Brazil

Africa NorthAmerica

Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries1

CAGR

2%

Outside Europe Europe

1Q16 1Q15 1Q14

Page 25: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Value-added and distribution make up larger part of Yaras contribution

25

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Commodity Europe

Commodity overseas

Upgrade & distribution

Trade

1Q15 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q16 3Q12 1Q12 3Q11 1Q11 3Q10 1Q10 3Q15

Total Yara contribution

Page 26: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Fertilizer deliveries

26

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Europe Outside Europe

Kilotons

2012 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 27: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Fertilizer deliveries by product and source

27

1,595 1,445 1,414

1,308

768 879

1,375

1,175

418 354

993 1,068

1Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16

Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced

NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN Other

Kilotons

Nitrate

Page 28: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

AdBlue deliveries

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Kilotons

Page 29: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Industrial volume development

29

847829815

892859864852849

816866

819844

792

538577

541540

482511

438456

382432

308328

385364333346

380361339367364358

328

1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13

374

2Q13

368

1Q13

343

Other Environmental products Industrial N-chemicals

Kilotons

Page 30: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Debt/equity ratio

30

0.20

0.07

-0.04

0.05

0.13

0.11

0.22

0.08

0.01

0.06

0.15

0.12

0.06 0.06

0.08

0.06

0.12

0.02

0.06

0.17 0.16

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

Page 31: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other

Yara stocks

31

Kilotons

Finished fertilizer Bunge Fertilizer

included from 3Q 2013

Page 32: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

European producers’ nitrate stocks

32

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

15/16 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for March

Index

June 2007 = 1

Page 33: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Energy cost

33

4.0 4.4

4.0

2.8

3.7

5.2 4.6

3.9 3.8

2.9 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2

4.8

5.7

8.2 8.0 8.0 8.1

6.9

6.1 6.5

5.9 5.7

5.3

4.1 3.7 3.7

4.7

6.6

9.2 9.4

10.5 9.8

7.6 7.0

8.1

7.0 6.8 6.5

5.4

4.2

3.7 3.8

6.6

7.6

10.7 11.0 11.4 11.3

9.2

7.5

8.5

7.6 7.5 7.0

6.2

5.0 4.4 4.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe

Yearly averages 2009 – 2013, quarterly averages for 2014-16 with forward prices* for 2Q16 and 3Q16.

*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 12 April 2016 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren

Page 34: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Global grain balance

34

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E

Million tons

Consumption Production

Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E

Days

Source: USDA April 2016

Page 35: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

35

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

Thousand contracts

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Page 36: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Weaker farm economics in USD, affecting particularly P

and K demand

36

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015 1/2016

Index

FAO price index

Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.

Source: FAO

Page 37: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China

37

Year Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative

to nitrogen capacity

Excluding China Excluding China

2015 Algeria 26%

Saudi Arabia 24% 1.8% (1.8%)

2016 USA 22%

Algeria 15% 3.0% (3.1%)

2017 USA 33%

Iran 15% 2.5% (2.3%)

2018 USA 34%

Turkmenistan 19% 1.1% (1.5%)

2019 Nigeria 36%

Russia 29% 1.2% (1.2%)

Gross annual addition 2015-2019 ~2.0%

Assumed annual closures ~0.5%

Net annual addition 2015-2019 ~1.5%

Trend consumption growth from 2004 2.0%

Source: CRU urea update March 2016 (December 2015 in brackets) . Consumption data source is IFA.

Page 38: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

Key value drivers – quarterly averages

38

295 277 268 250 207

337 297 281 270

233

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t)

295 273 257 255 249

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

CAN cif Germany (USD/t)

2.9 2.7 2.7

2.1 2.0

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)

7.0 6.8 6.4

5.5

4.1

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu)

7.7 7.8

8.2

8.5 8.7

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

NOK/USD exchange rate

413 393 388 355

270

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)

Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

Page 39: Nordea Markets, Geneva and Zürich

IR – 21 April 2016

10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages

39

0

200

400

600

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt

Average prices 2006 - 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t CAN cif Germany

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea