Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Centerccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-DroughtUpdate(Nov23_2004).pdf · Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center presented at the Water Availability

Drought UpdateDrought UpdateNovember 23, 2004 WATF MeetingNovember 23, 2004 WATF Meeting

Nolan J. Nolan J. DoeskenDoeskenColorado Climate CenterColorado Climate Center

presented at the Water Availability Task Force meeting, DOW, Denver, November 23, 2004

Prepared by Odie Bliss

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu

WY2004 HighlightsWY2004 Highlights

• Record warmth in October• Freezing drizzle storm for Halloween, cloudy• Good early snows over SW Colorado• Cold and snowcovered on the Western Slope midwinter• Fairly dry and dull midwinter elsewhere• A cold February• Very warm and dry March• Wet April -- Hurray!• Oops, warm and dry again in May• Cool and damp summer east of mountains• Hot and dry to the west• Moisture onslaught into Western Colorado in September

Water Year 2004 temperature departures from Water Year 2004 temperature departures from 19711971--2000 average2000 average

Water Year 2004

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Dep

artu

re fr

om a

vera

ge, d

egre

e F

Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

Summer 2004 (MaySummer 2004 (May––Sep) precipitation as a percent Sep) precipitation as a percent of the 1971of the 1971--2000 average2000 average

Water Year 2004 precipitation as a percent of the Water Year 2004 precipitation as a percent of the 19711971--2000 average2000 average

SummarySummary

• A mild winter again• Another year with below average snowmelt

runoff• Generous growing season precipitation east of

the mountains• Coolest summer in a looong time• Improvements in soil moisture• Reservoirs hung in there• Significant runoff from rains

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2004/aug/aug04.html

Drought Monitor MapDrought Monitor Map

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html



Colorado Precipitation Ranking1895-2004


Climate Climate divisions divisions

defined by Dr. defined by Dr. Klaus Klaus WolterWolter

of of NOAA'sNOAA'sClimate Climate

Diagnostic Diagnostic Center in Center in

Boulder, COBoulder, CO

Division 1Division 1-- Grand Lake 1NWGrand Lake 1NWGrand Lake 1 NW2005 Water Year

(Oct '04)

0

5

10

15

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25

30

35

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

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MAR

APR

MAY

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Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1984 Min Year - 2002

Period of Record Average - 1941 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated

Division 1Division 1-- Taylor ParkTaylor ParkTaylor Park

2005 Water Year (Oct '04)

0

5

10

15

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25

30

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

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Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 1974Period of Record Average - 1942 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 2 Division 2 –– Grand JunctionGrand JunctionGrand Junction WSFO


0

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4

6

8

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12

14

16

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

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umul

ated

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cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 2 Division 2 –– CollbranCollbranCollbran 2SW


0

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20

25

OCT

NOV

DEC

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MAR

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MAY

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umul

ated

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cipi

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n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1893 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 3 Division 3 -- MontroseMontroseMontrose #2


0

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4

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18

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Months

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umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 3 Division 3 –– CochetopaCochetopa CreekCreekCochetopa Creek2005 Water Year

(Oct '04)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

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Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1949 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2nd Min Year - 1950

Division 3 Division 3 ---- Mesa VerdeMesa VerdeMesa Verde NP2005 Water Year

(Oct '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1941 Min Year - 1977Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year

Division 4 Division 4 -- CenterCenterCenter 4SSW


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

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MAY

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JUL

AUG

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Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2002 Water Year 2005 Water Year

Division 4 Division 4 –– Del NorteDel NorteDel Norte


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1985 Min Year - 1951Period of Record Average - 1921-2002 2005 Accumulated 2002 Accumulated Water Year

Division 5 Division 5 –– Colorado SpringsColorado SpringsColorado Springs2005 Water Year

(Oct '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1893-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 5 Division 5 -- PuebloPuebloPueblo WSO


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

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Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1942 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1874-2000 2005 Water Year Accumulated

Division 5 Division 5 –– Buena VistaBuena VistaBuena Vista


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

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18

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

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Acc

umul

ated

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cipi

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n (In

ches

)


2005 Water Year Accumulated Period of Record Average - 1901 - 2002 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 5 Division 5 –– Canon CityCanon CityCanon City


0

5

10

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20

25

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

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SEP

Months

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umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 6 Division 6 –– Cheyenne WellsCheyenne WellsCheyenne Wells2005 Water Year

(Oct '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1909 Min Year - 1956Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 6 Division 6 –– Rocky FordRocky FordRocky Ford


0

5

10

15

20

25

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1889-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated

Division 7 Division 7 –– AkronAkronAkron 4E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated

Division 7 Division 7 -- LeroyLeroyLeroy 5SW


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

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JUL

AUG

SEP

Months

Acc

umul

ated

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cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1995 Min Year - 1894Period of Record Average - 1890-2002 200 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 8 Division 8 –– Boulder Boulder Boulder

2005 Water Year(Oct '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

OCTNOV

DECJA

NFEB

MARAPR

MAYJU

N JUL

AUGSEP

Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

)

2005 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1995

Min Year - 1966 Period of Record Average - 1894-2002 2002 Water Year

Division 8 Division 8 –– CheesmanCheesmanCheesman


0

5

10

15

20

25

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

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Months

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umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tato

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1970 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1904 - 2002 2005 Water Year

Division 8 Division 8 –– KasslerKasslerKassler


0

5

10

15

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25

30

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

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Months

Acc

umul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 1956Period of Record Average - 1899 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Division 8 Division 8 –– Fort CollinsFort CollinsFort Collins


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OCTNOV

DECJA

NFEB

MARAPR

MAYJU

NJU

LAUG

SEP

Month

Accu

mul

ated

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

)


Period of Record Average - 1890 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2002 WY

3030--Year Average October Maximum Temperatures Year Average October Maximum Temperatures

Oct 2004 Oct 2004 TmaxTmax

3030--Year Average October Minimum TemperaturesYear Average October Minimum Temperatures

Oct 2004 Oct 2004 TminTmin temperatures maptemperatures map

October 2004 Average TemperaturesOctober 2004 Average Temperatures

Oct 2004 precipitation mapOct 2004 precipitation map

Precipitation:Precipitation:October 2004October 2004

Courtesy of Oregon Climate Service, http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism

11--month month Percent of Percent of Average Average Precipitation Precipitation ––October 2004October 2004

Courtesy of Oregon Climate Service, http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism

3 Month SPI3 Month SPI



Fraction of Colorado in DroughtFraction of Colorado in DroughtFraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 48 month SPI(1890 - Oct 2004)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1890

1892

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1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Year

Frac

tion

(in p

erce

nt)

Calibration period is 1961-2000. Data values produced by John Kleist.

Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months






How About CoCoRaHS?How About CoCoRaHS?

Colorado Overview Precipitation11/11/04 for the 24-hour ending at 7 am

CoCoRaHS Snow MapsCoCoRaHS Snow Maps

Colorado Overview New Snowfall Map11/20/2004 ending at 7:00 am

Colorado Overview New Snowfall Map11/21/2004 ending at 7:00 am

For more information visit theFor more information visit theCoCoCoCo RaHSRaHS Web siteWeb site

http://http://www.cocorahs.orgwww.cocorahs.org

Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program,National Science Foundationandmany local charter sponsors.

Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University

Data and Power Point Presentations available Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloadingfor downloading

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu•• click on “Drought” click on “Drought” •• then click on “Presentations”then click on “Presentations”

Documents

Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Centerccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-DroughtUpdate(Nov23_2004).pdf · Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center presented at the Water Availability