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Project NOAH Open-File Reports Vol. 1 (2013), pp. 37-82, ISSN
2362 7409
PROJECT NOAH HOW TO USE MANUAL
Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay, Ph.D.
National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the
Philippines DilimanDepartment of Science and Technology, Nationwide
Operational Assessment of Hazards
[email protected]
MODULE 1: HAZARDS
The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the United
Nations office that ensures the
implementation of plans and policies for disaster risk
reductions, defines a hazard as a dangerous
phenomenon, substance, human activity, or condition that may
cause loss of life, injury or other health
impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services,
social and economic disruption, or
environmental damage.
A hazard cannot exist when its not happening. A hazardous
activity or situation that has already
happened is called an incident. When hazard and vulnerability
are both present, a riskis created.
Although there are other types of hazards such as chemical and
biological hazards, this manual will focus
on natural hazards that include floods, earthquakes, tsunamis,
and volcanic eruptions.
1.1 FLOOD
A floodhappens when there is an overflow of water that submerges
a land area. It is generally a result of
the excess volume of water spilling from a larger body of water
such as lakes and rivers. When they reach
their total capacity, the water leaks and reaches the ground.
generation
Floods can cause damage to properties and risk peoples lives.
Major types of infrastructure such as
buildings, bridges, roads, canals, and sewerage systems can be
affected by a strong flood. In addition,houses with weak
foundations can easily be destroyed by flowing water.
The occurrence of floods also poses threats to the health of
residents living in the area. Communicable
diseases can spread due to unsanitary living conditions. Finding
clean drinking water may be a concern,
as well as managing the transportation system. Furthermore,
flooding can be highly traumatic to people
who experience it, particularly when serious fatalities and
injuries happen.
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1.1. RIVER BASINS
When rainwater falls, it goes to the rivers and eventually to
the seas. This is the normal flow of rain from
the sky to the ground. But when the volume of rainwater is more
than these bodies of water can contain, it
spills and reaches land areas, thus causing flood.
To fully understand what causes flood and how to lessen its
effects to property and human living, it is
important to learn about river basins.
Basically, a river basin (also called drainage basin or
watershed) is an area of land drained by a river and
its tributaries. Its the catchment area of a river and is
important in water management during calamities
like strong floods.
To put it simply, a river basin collects all the water and
channels it to one area where the elevation is low.
However, when strong rains happen, floods may overrun the basin
and discharge the excess water into the
next river system.
1.2 EARTHQUAKE
An earthquake happens when there is a sudden release of energy
in the earths crust or upper mantle,
which is usually caused by volcanic activity or movement of
geological faults. This results in the
generation of seismic wavesthat can cause destruction to
property and loss of lives. Usually followed by
aftershocks, earthquakes can trigger landslides, tsunami, and
volcanic eruptions.
1.3 TSUNAMI
A tsunami(often mistakenly referred to as tidal waves) is a
series of huge waves caused by a quake or
volcanic activity happening at sea or undersea. When the waves
hit the shorelines, they can pose major
threats to lives, properties, and natural habitats of
animals.
1.4 VOLCANIC ERUPTION
In simple terms, an eruptionhappens when lava, magma, or gas is
discharged from a volcanic vent or
fissure. The eruption of Mount Pinatuboin June 1991 is
considered one of the most destructive natural
calamities of the past century. It spewed tons of sulfur dioxide
and other particles into the air and spread
all over the world. Due to its impact, global temperature was
said to have dropped by about one degree
Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) over the course of the following
year.
MODULE 2: EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
2. OVERVIEW
In an article published by the United Nations
UniversityInstitute for Environment and Human Security
(UN-EHS) and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(ISDR), it is mentioned that creating
people-centered early warning systems is crucial in addressing
the effects of natural hazards such as
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floods and earthquakes. These systems help empower communities
by preparing them before, during, and
after the occurrence of calamities. It alsopoints out that our
vulnerability to natural hazards is growing
because population increases and more people are living in risky
places. Therefore, it is necessary to
take action as soon as possible.
The traditional framework of early warning systems is initially
comprised of three stages:
Monitoring of precursors
Forecasting of a probable event
Notification of a warning or an alert
Over the years, an additional stage has been included.
The fourth and final stage is the organization of emergency
response activities after the issuance of
warning. Whereas the first three stages focus on the
institutions responsible for risk reduction
management, the last one is concentrated on people, aimed at
providing them with proper information and
training on how to respond during calamities.
For an early warning system to be effective, the agencies
involved must be completely knowledgeable
about disaster preparedness and could devise efficient methods
to disseminate information material to the
public. Priority must be given to making it accessible and
understandable to communities that will be
using it.
[image/chart/table]
2.1. PRINCIPAL ELEMENTS OF LOCAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
As endorsed by the UN ISDR, there are four key elements that
compose an early warning system. These
include:
Risk Knowledge
Warning Service
Communication and Dissemination
Response Capability
All these components need to function individually and
efficiently to make the whole system work. While
having a good leader is of utmost importance, it is also vital
to employ highly competent people in order
to achieve positive results. Commitment to the project is
crucial. Meetings must be organized on a regular
basis to ensure that the key individuals are informed of their
tasks and deadlines. Furthermore, everyone
must have a clear understanding of each element to be able to
deliver what is required from them.
2.1.1. RISK KNOWLEDGE
According to the UN ISDR, risk is the combination of the
probability of an event and its negative
consequences. Simply put, it is the potential that an action or
activity will result in something
undesirable like injury or loss.
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Hazards and vulnerabilities are two important factors that must
be present in order to determine risks. In
assessing risk, it is imperative to have a systematic gathering
and study of data, with particular emphasis
given on trends and patterns.
The UN ISDR explains it further: risk assessment includes a
review of the technical characteristics of
hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and
probability; the analysis of exposure and
vulnerability including the physical social, health, economic
and environmental dimensions; and the
evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative
coping capacities in respect to likely risk
scenarios.
Being informed will help people understand hazards better. This
way, they can devise plans and
implement them to mitigate the effects of disasters.
2.1.2. WARNING SERVICE
An effective warning system must be able to predict forthcoming
catastrophic events as accurately as
possible. To accomplish this, it would be helpful to utilize
advanced and state-of-the-art equipment that is
functional 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. Timing is also
significant, since people must be warned assoon as a risk arises.
Monitoring of possible hazard locations must be constantly done by
various agencies
and networks that specialize in disaster operations.
2.1.3. COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION
All efforts to generate accurate data and timely warnings will
be useless if they wont reach the people
who need them. Informational messages must not only be
accessiblethey must also be clear enough for
citizens to understand and follow. In addition, there should be
a continuous and well-organized
communication system among regional and national agencies in
order to fully implement urgent
directives. The use of modern communication devices such as
smartphones and tablet computers is also
recommended to ensure that messages will reach the people at
risk as early as possible. Incorrect andambiguous information must
be avoided at all costs.
2.1.4. RESPONSE CAPABILITY
It is not just the agencies that have responsibilities in
reducing and managing riskslocal communities
also play an important role in coming up with an effective early
warning system. Residents must be
encouraged to attend educational programs so that theyd be aware
oftheir duties as citizens. Since they
will be the ones who will mostly benefit from this, it is also
important that they realize the huge effect on
their lives if this system turns out to be successful.
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MODULE 3: PROJECT NOAH
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic
eruptions, the Philippines is a hotbed of
disasters. Natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly
damage to property. Last year, the devastating
impacts of Pedring, Quiel, and Sendong resulted in a high number
of fatalities with economic losses
amounting to billions of pesos. Extreme weather is the common
factor in these latest catastrophes.
Situated in the humid tropics, the country will inevitably
suffer from climate-related calamities similar to
those ones experienced recently. With continued development in
the lowlands and their growing
population, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and
human losses would persist and rise unless
appropriate measures are immediately implemented by the
government.
In response to President Benigno Aquino's instructions to
establish a responsive program for disaster
prevention and mitigation, specifically, to help agencies
provide a six-hour lead-time warning to
vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use
advanced technology in enhancing current
geo-hazard vulnerability maps, the Nationwide Operational
Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) was
launched by the Department of Science and Technology in July
2012.
Project NOAH's mission is to undertake disaster science research
and development, advance the use of
cutting edge technologies, and recommend innovative information
services in government's disaster
prevention and mitigation efforts. Through the use of science
and technology and in partnership with the
academe and other stakeholders, the DOST and Project NOAH are
taking a multi-disciplinary approach indeveloping systems, tools,
and other technologies that could be operationalized by the
government to help
prevent and mitigate disasters.
3.1.1 COMPONENT PROJECTS
At present there are eight component projects under the NOAH
program:
Hydromet Sensors Development
DREAM-LIDAR 3-D Mapping Project
Flood NET-Flood Modeling Project
Hazards Information Media
Enhancing Geo-hazards Mapping through LIDAR
Doppler System Development,
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Landslide Sensors Development Project, and
Storm Surge Inundation Mapping Project
The current Project NOAH team is composed of scientist-leaders
who handle these projects. The
country's warning agencies, such as PAG-ASA and PHIVOLCS, are
also represented.
3.1.2 MAJOR RIVER BASINS
In two years, Project NOAH plans to provide high-resolution
flood hazard maps and install 600
automated rain gauges and 400 water level measuring stations for
18 major river basins in the Philippines,
namely:
Marikina River Basin
Cagayan de Oro River Basin
Iligan River Basin
Agno River Basin
Pampanga River Basin
Bicol River Basin
Cagayan River Basin
Agusan River Basin
Panay River Basin
Magaswang Tubig River Basin
Jalaur River Basin
Ilog-Hilabangan River Basin
Agus River Basin
Davao River Basin
Mindanao River Basin
Tagum-Libuganon River Basin
Tagaloan River Basin
Buayan-Malungun River Basin
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Other river basins located in the Philippines will be given
priority as soon as the work on the 18 major
river basins is completed.
3.1.3 PARTICIPATING AGENCIES
The activities and services of Project NOAH wont have been
possible without the support of the
following agencies and organizations:
PAGASA
DOST-ASTI
PHIVOLCS
DOST-STII
UP NIGS EML Laboratory
ClimateX Project
UP NIGS VTEC Laboratory
nababaha.com
UP DGE-TCAGP
UP-MSI
British Council
British Embassy
UK Environment Agency
Cabot Institute, Bristol University
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of
Potsdam
MediaQuest Holdings Inc.
Manila Observatory
DRRNet
DILG
MMDA
DENR
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DPWH
Smart Communications, Inc.
SUN Cellular
Globe Telecommunications
Google Crisis Response
Petron
www.lifesomundane.net
Rotary Club of Pinamalayan Central
For data sources, Project NOAH is helped by the following:
Australian AID: Metro Manila LiDAR data
Collective Strengthening of Community Awareness for Natural
Disasters (CSCAND): Metro
Manila LiDAR data
Government of Japan: JICA
Government of Korea: KOICA
For the development of mobile applications, the team is
supported by the following people and
organizations:
Rolly Rulete: Project NOAH app for Android
Ateneo Java Wireless Competency Center: Flood Patrol app for
Android
ABS-CBN Corporation: Project NOAH app for IOS
Pointwest Technologies: Flood Map app for Android/IOS
EFFECTIVE USE OF THE DOST-PROJECT NOAH WEBSITE
Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay, Ph.D.
3.2.1 OVERVIEW
The Project NOAH website is one of the information dissemination
platforms designed by the
government to mitigate and prevent disasters. With the use of
the Internet, critical, reliable, authoritative,
understandable, and timely information is conveyed to
communities and local government units. The
website contains detailed weather and disaster information,
which, when used properly, can avoid the loss
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of lives and damage to properties due to the impacts of natural
hazards. A step-by-step approach on the
use of the Project NOAHwebsite is discussed in the manual. It
also contains instructions on how to
interpret the features correctly in the context of impending
local disasters.
The Project NOAH website can be accessed through any Internet
browser by typing the URL
http://www.noah.dost.gov.ph . It can also be searched using
Google by typing Project NOAH and
clicking the first entry on the list of results.
3.2.2 HOME PAGE
Once the Project NOAH website opens, a Google mapof the
Philippines will show up on the home page.
(Figure 1).
Figure 1. The NOAH website showing a Google map of the
Philippines once itsopened.
The lower right corner of the page shows the Twitter messages of
PAGASA, which is the primary source
of information related to weather and floods. Information posted
on the NOAHwebsite is supplementary
to the official advisory given by PAGASA.
Located on the top left part is the zoom tool of Google. On the
opposite side are the STREET,
TERRAIN,and HYBRIDbuttons, which are used for selecting the type
of maps that the viewer likes.
The TERRAINview is highly recommended for a faster Internet
experience. Beside the map type button
is the transparency slide bar that sets the opacity of
overlays.
http://www.noah.dost.gov.ph/http://www.noah.dost.gov.ph/http://www.noah.dost.gov.ph/
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The MTSAT and processed images provide the viewer with
information about clouds that carry water
(Figure 5). Red clouds mean that they have a lot of water that
may fall as rain, while yellow clouds carry
less water. During instances when there are cyclones within the
Philippine Area of Responsibility
(PAR),clouds are often seen swirling around the eye of the
typhoon or storm.
Figure 5. MTSAT image showing typhoon Lawin (international
codename Jelawat).
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Figure 6. Processed satellite image. White clouds indicate areas
where rain may fall.
The processed satellite image shows white clouds that can bring
forth rain. It is an animation of the five
latest sequential images downloaded by the satellite ground
station of PAGASA. At the lower left corner
of the animated file is the timestamp in both the MTSAT and
processed imageries. The timestamp may
have a one-hour delay, which is acceptable because it requires
time to download data from the satellite
orbiting at 36,000 km above the earths surface and process them
into an animated file.
After viewing the satellite imageries, the user can activate the
rainfall contour button (Figure 7) in the
overview tab options. The one-hour rainfall contour shows places
in the Philippines that have
experienced rain as measured by the automated weather stations
(AWS) and automated rain gauges
(ARG) deployed all over the Philippines. A scale bar can be used
on the left side of the page to learn
about the type of rainfall according to the classification of
PAGASA. To explain the various rain types,
heres a useful analogy using the car windshield wiper (Table
1).
The next tab to check is the 3-hour rainfall contour button
(Figure 8).
Rain type Color Intensitymm/hour
Wiper analogy
Torrential Red >30 Even with fast and continuous wiper speed,
the driver will not be
able to see the road
Intense Yellow 15
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Table 1. Wiper analogy for various types of rain.
Figure 7. Rainfall contour of rainfall accumulation in Central
and Southeast Luzon.
Heavy Dark
Blue
7.5
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Banag,
Binitayan,
Daraga;
Anoling;
Quirangay;
MasarawagFrank June 20-
22, 2008
Ilog=Hilabang
an;
Jalaur
Hilabangan;
Jalaur; Tigum
354 mm on 20
June 2008
Carcellar et
al.2011,
Yumul et al,
20
Ondoy Sept 26,
2009
Pasig-
Marikina
Marikina; San
Juan; Pasig
90 mm/hour 455 mm hours
mostly
delivered in 6
hours
PAGASA
(Science
Garden
Station)
Pepeng October
4-9, 2009
Agno Agno River 54 mm/hr 190 mm from
8 am of
October 3 to 8
am October 4,
2009
PIN station
Pedring
and
Quiel
Sept 6
Oct 2,
2011
Pampanga Pampanga;
Angat
50 mm/hr
(Typhoon
Nesat)
375 mm
combined for
Pedring and
Quiel
NASA
TRRM
Sendong December
2011
Cagayan de
Oro/Iligan
Cagayan de
Oro; Iponan;
Mandulog;Iligan
~40 mm/hr 180 mm
mostly
delivered in 6-7 hours
Manila
Observatory
Habagat August 6,
2012
Pasig-
Marikina;
Marikina; San
Juan; Malabon-
Tullahan
23.37
mm/hr
(QCPU
station)
323.4 mm
from 8 am to
8 am the
following day
(Science
Garden
Station)
PAGASA
DOST ASTI
NOAH
Habagat August 7,
2012
Pasig-
Marikina;
Marikina; San
Juan; Malabon-Tullahan
58.93
mm/hr(QCPU
station)
391.4 from 8
am to 8 amthe following
day (Science
Garden
Station)
PAGASA
DOST ASTINOAH
Habagat August 8,
2012
Pasig-
Marikina;
Marikina; San
Juan; Malabon-
45.21
mm/hr
292.6 from 8
am to 8 am
PAGASA
DOST ASTI
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Tullahan (QCPU
station
midnight of
October 8)
the following
day (Science
Garden
Station)
NOAH
Flooding in the metropolis occurs when urban development
encroaches onto floodplains, which results in
the obstruction of floodways and loss of natural storage.
Building concrete structures and pavements
increases the risk in impervious areas, which means more run-off
will accumulate suddenly during
torrential rainfall events. Such type of intense rain normally
accompanies typhoons, monsoon rains, or
even local thunderstorms.
For Metro Manila, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and
Atmospheric Sciences Administration
(PAGASA) has come up with a three-level color-coded scheme to
warn citizens about impending floods.
(Table 3). The warning levels are based on historical data of
rainfall intensity, duration, and past
occurrences of street floods.
Table 3. Color-coded warning system of PAGASA for urban flooding
in Metro Manila. Source:
PAGASA
Red More than 30 mm of rain
observed in an hour and
expected to continue in
the next two hours
Serious flooding
expected in low lying
areas
Response:
Evacuation
Orange 15-30 mm of rain
(intense) rain observed in
an hour and expected to
continue in the next two
hours
Flooding is threatening Response:
Alert for possible
evacuation
Yellow 7.5-15 mm of rain
(heavy) rain observed in
the next two hours
Flooding is possible Response:
Monitor the weather
condition
Other OVERVIEW options on the Project NOAH website are
TEMPERATURE, PRESSURE, and
HUMIDITYcontours (Figure 9), which are used to check additional
weather parameters. For example,
the pressure contour map can be used along with the typhoon
track of PAGASAto validate if the storm
or typhoon is going to pass through the region where atmospheric
pressure is lowest. There is normally a
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drop in the atmospheric pressure before a storm arrives. As for
all overlays on the NOAH website, it is
important to check the timestamp to get a more accurate reading.
For the contour maps, the timestamp is
located on the top left of the Philippine map.
Figure 9. Contour maps showing temperature, pressure and
humidity.
The last option in the OVERVIEW tabis the RAINFALL
PROBABILITYcontour. Probabilities of
rainfall for every city in the Philippines are available, but
instead of looking at the hourly chance of rain
per city, these have been reformatted into a map of rain
probability. This way, users can see the chance ofrainfall in every
region of the country at a glance. This is useful when they just
want to quickly check a
specific area thats likely to experience rain in the next four
hours. The probability contour map is
animated every hour up to four hours from the time it was last
updated.
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Figure 10. Chance of rain contour. Scale bar to the left of the
Philippine map shows the percentage
chance of rain with red and maroon colors depicting 80-100%
chance of rain in the next hour from
the last update.
C. WEATHER OUTLOOK TAB
WEATHER OUTLOOKis the next tab in the TOOLS menu. By selecting
the probability of rainfall
feature in the options, a map with icons of percentage chance of
rain will appear on the Philippine map for
every key city in the Philippines.
There are five types of icons:
A full sun or moon
A partly cloudy sun or moon
A large cloud covering the sun or moon
A dark cloud
A dark cloud with heavy rain
Each icon represents a range of percent chance of rain values
(Table 4).
Icon type Image
(Day)
Image
(Night)
Percent chance of rain range Remarks
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sun/moon: 60 Rainfall is very
likely
Table 4 Probaility of rain icons and equivalent percent chance
of rain.
When the icon is selected, a table appears showing the
probability of rainfall every hour up to four hours
ahead of the current time (Figure 11). It is important to check
when the analysis was last generated to
ensure accuracy. The reliability of the forecast, which is based
on the validation of ClimateX (a Project
NOAH research component), is about 95 percent when all data
sources (Satellite, Doppler, Rain Gauges)
are up-to-date.
Figure 11. Percent chance of rain for every key city in the
Philippines.
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Whenever there is a tropical cyclone in the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR), another option
appears in the WEATHER OUTLOOKtab. This is the PAGASA typhoon
cyclone forecast track. By
selecting this feature along with the MTSAT image in the
OVERVIEWtab, a view of the actual position
of the cyclone and the forecast track can be seen (Figure
12).
Figure 12. PAGASA forecast track of typhoon Nina (international
codename Prapiroon) overlain
on the MTSAT image of the Philippines, taken early morning of
October 12, 2012.
The outline of the Philippine Area of Responsibility also
appears when the forecast track feature is
activated. This feature allows the viewer to determine the
position of the satellite and the forecast relative
to PAR.
3.2.4 DOPPLER
The DOPPLER tab allows the selection of animated images from the
Doppler radar stations of
PAGASA. There are currently six Doppler radar stations that
monitor rain clouds in the country. Four of
these stations stream data into the Project NOAH website. These
are the Subic, Tagaytay, Cebu, and
Hinatuan Doppler stations. As soon as communication lines are
fixed to stream the data from the Baguio
and Virac Doppler stations into DOST-ASTI servers, the raw radar
shall be processed and made
available. By 2014, there will be a total of 13 operational
Doppler radar stations to monitor weather
conditions in the country. Every raincloud can be seen and
measured in terms of the intensity and volume
of precipitable water (Figure 13).
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3.2.5 WEATHER STATIONS
The WEATHER STATIONS tab allows viewing of data for each
automated sensor deployed in strategic
parts of the country. At the time of writing, there are already
more than 200 weather stations that provide
Project NOAH with data on rainfall and river water level every
10 to 15 minutes. By the end of 2013,
more than 1000 automated rain gauges and water level sensors are
expected to be set up.
There are three types of weather stations: the Automated Weather
Station (AWS), the Automated Water
Level Sensor (AWLS), and the Automated Rain Gauge (ARG). Each
type of sensor is included in the
WEATHER STATION tab. Selecting all of these options will show
the distribution of the entire
collection of sensors located all over the Philippines. (Figure
14)
Figure 14. Automated weather stations deployed all over the
Philippines.
Three types of colored pins will appear on the Philippine map.
The blue pins represent automated weather
stations, red pins are for automated water level sensors, and
the green pins are for automated rain gauges.
Depending on the zoom level, numbers may appear on the balloon
head of the pins. These represent thenumber of pins in a cluster
that separate when the Philippine map is zoomed in.
When the blue pin is clicked twice, a graph appears showing the
data of the rainfall, temperature,
pressure, and humidity in the last 24 hours. The rainfall data
(Figure 15a) are color-coded to represent the
types of rainfall based on the classification of PAGASA.
Temperature data (Figure 15b) are shown in a
degree-centigrade versus time graph. Atmospheric pressure data
(Figure 15c) are shown in a pressure
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versus time graph. The unit of pressure is measured in
hectopascals (hPA), where 1 hectoPascal is equal
to 100 Pascals. Lastly, humidity is shown in terms of percentage
humidity versus time graph (Figure
15d).
Figure 15. a) Top left showing the rain gauge graph b) top right
showing the temperature graphs c)bottom left showing the pressure
graph d) bottom right showing the humidity graph
Inspection of ARG data is possible by clicking on any of the
green pins twice. Once selected, a graph
similar to the AWS rainfall data appears on screen (Figure 16).
Peaks in the graph signify rainfall of a
particular type of rainfall intensity (i.e. torrential, intense,
heavy, moderate, or light) when matched with
the colored background. By moving the cursor along the X-axis,
the user will see the amount of rainfall
collected every 10 or 15 minutes over the last 24 hours.
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Figure 16. Rainfall graph the last 24 hours.
The stream gauge option of the SENSORS tab shows the location of
all the river water level gaugesinstalled by PAGASAand DOST-ASTIin
the 18 priority river basins of Project NOAH. To access data
from each of the stream gauges, select the red pin and a graph
will appear showing the data collected in
the last 24 hours. A color-coded background will provide the
matching assessment level of potential
fluvial flooding (Figure 17).
Three warning levels are designated in the graph: the alert,
alarm, and critical level. They are classified
based on the percentage height of water flow relative to bank
full (Figure 18). These stages of surface
height of water correspond to 30 percent, 60 percent and 90
percent of bankfull, respectively.
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Figure 17. Graph of water level of the Marikina River (Sto. Nino
station). Water levels during
"Habagat" reached 20.5 meters twice in the span of 3 days.
However, the local government may adopt their own scheme of
warning levels. For example, the
Marikina City Council
(http://syncsysph.com/councilmarikinagovph/data/riverlevel.html )
uses its ownsystem in warning its residents. When the water level
of the Marikina River reaches 15 meters, residents
living in low-lying areas beside the river are warned of
impending danger. At 16 meters, residents are
asked to prepare to evacuate. When the level of the Marikina
River reaches 17 meters, people are asked to
evacuate. Those that do not follow these instructions are forced
to leave when the water level reaches 18
meters. All warning levels of the Marikina City Council are
based on measurements and reports from the
Sto. Nino station.
http://syncsysph.com/councilmarikinagovph/data/riverlevel.htmlhttp://syncsysph.com/councilmarikinagovph/data/riverlevel.htmlhttp://syncsysph.com/councilmarikinagovph/data/riverlevel.htmlhttp://syncsysph.com/councilmarikinagovph/data/riverlevel.html
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Figure 18. Schematic cross-section of a river showing bankfull
and percentage levels relative to
bankfull level.
Giving warnings about suspension of classes is essential in
disaster prevention. However, it is necessarythat they are relayed
to residents and clearly understood by everyone in the community
long before crises
happen. The warning levels are unique to each river and its
location along the river. They are determined
based on a thorough assessment of carrying capacity and the
response of the fluvial system to rainfall
events.
3.2.6 FLOOD MAP
Selecting the FLOOD MAP tabwill display flood maps that
represent past scenarios of flood events and
near real-time simulations of river conditions in map view. In
general, the scenarios from past flood
events in rivers for 18 major basins (Table 5) are used to help
people prepare for flood disasters several
years in advance. These maps can be used to identify flood
hazard areas, distinguish possible blockedroads, determine
emergency access routes, and strategize placement of rubber boats
and key emergency
facilities, among others. Most importantly, they should be used
for comprehensive land development
plans. Avoiding land development in known compromised areas
lessens the impact of natural hazards
because fewer people will be in harms way. Forecast simulations
of floods based on near real-time data
provide important basis for action during a crisis
situation.
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Table 5. A list of the 18 major river basins prioritized by
Project NOAH, which includes the
Infanta and Lucena watersheds.
Name of River BasinAREA (SQUARE KILOMETERS)
Catchment Watershed Flood Plain
CDO 1382.50 1302.42 80.082
Mandulog 715.53 658.41 57.13
Davao 1325.47 1280.08 45.40
Bicol 3089.31 2371.81 717.50
Cagayan 27451.49 21889.98 5561.50
Agno 6219.87 4495.02 1724.84
Pampanga 11160.17 6701.80 4458.37
Infanta 950.11 934.64 15.47
Lucena 228.82 196.38 32.44
Panay 2441.43 1942.68 498.75
Jalaur 1535.08 831.18 703.90
Ilog Hilabangan 2059.63 1942.80 116.83
Tagum Libuganon 2370.97 1935.20 435.76
Buayan 1440.55 1187.14 253.41
Mag-Asawang Tubig 468.59 169.80 298.79
Mindanao 20962.36 15711.37 5250.99
Tagoloan 1753.24 1430.48 322.76
Agusan 1917.88 1604.89 312.99
Iligan 149.067 138.10 10.07
Past scenarios of inundation shown on the ProjectNOAHwebsite are
simulated flood events that arise
from different intensities and duration of rainfall. Records of
such rainfall in different areas of the
country are documented by PAGASAand go back as far as the 1950s.
To group the different types of
rainfall events, they have been classified according to their
statistical return period of 5, 10, 25, 50 and
100 years. The probability of a 5-year rain return period is 1
in every 5 years while the probability of a
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100-year rain return period is 1 in every 100 years. In simple
terms, the strength of rainfall for a 100-year
rain return is much stronger but less frequent than it is for a
5-year rain return. Since statistical rain return
periods refer to probability (chancein gambling talk), the
chance of having a100-year rain return period
rainfall event in consecutive years or within the same year is
also possible. Once it happens, the
probability clock is reset. For each of these 1 to 100-year rain
return events, corresponding flood
scenarios are generated using computer simulations of water
runoff on land.
On the other hand, the flood scenarios determined through near
real-time rainfall measurements predict
the flood distribution and depth of inundation of areas by the
river. Since these real-time scenarios are
simulated using fast computers, it warns people ahead of time
about what kind of flood may happen.
These flood scenarios help communities and local government
units to make early preparations and come
up with logical decisions for an impending flood disaster.
For example, the land area of San Mateo and Marikina with
overlays of various flood scenarios is shown
below. High, medium, and low hazard levels are indicated in
yellow, orange, and red, respectively.
Selecting the LEGEND tab in the top right buttons will display
the equivalent height of the different
colors relative to a Filipino, 5 feet and 6 inches in height or
as tall as the boxing legend Manny Pacquiao.
Figure 19 Flood hazard map using the 5-year rainfall return
period data of PAGASA.
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Figure 20 Flood hazard map using the 25-year rainfall return
period data of PAGASA
Figure 21 Flood hazard map using the 50-year rainfall return
period data of PAGASA
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Figure 22 Flood hazard map using the 100-year rainfall return
period data of PAGASA
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Figure 24. Simulation of flood along the Marikina River during
Habagat from August 6 to 9 and
the rainfall events on July 3. Source: DREAM-Project DOST panel
technical presentation.
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Figure 25. A cross-sectional view of water level along the
Marikina River in Montalban station with
a six-hour advanced forecast. This six-hour water level forecast
based on rain data is yet to be
implemented. Source: UP-DREAM presentation to the DOST technical
panel.
Geometry is an important part of hydrologic modeling and
comprises about 70 to 75 percent of the flood
model outputs accuracy. Rainfall, land cover, soil moisture,
infiltration surface roughness, base flow, and
other parameters are factors that determine it. However, it is
important for people to realize thatlandscape always changes and
data parameter input can be generalized. As such, flood simulations
can
only approximate the exact values of flood heights and their
distribution at any given point in time. It is
thus important that flood simulation maps are constantly updated
and validated. Since the validation of
flood simulations is of utmost importance, painstaking efforts
are made to ensure that the maps are
precise. Various schemes are also used to test and improve the
accuracy of other systems. These include
flood reporting (anecdotal accounts of floods by citizens),
actual field measurements (Figure 26),
comparison with satellite data (Figure 27), and evaluation of
modeled versus actual measured discharge
of the river (Figure 28).
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Figure 26 Simulation of the Ondoy flood in Talayan, Quezon City
with overlay anecdotal accounts
of floods using crowdsourcing techniques. Red dots mean overhead
flood, while green dots indicate
the lack of flood.
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Figure 27. Change detection in two radar images before and
during the Habagat flood in 2012.
Shown in red are the changes detected along the Marikina River
due to the event. (Source:
Radarsat/MDA).
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Figure 28. Comparision of computer-simulated water level (blue
line) versus actual water level (red
line) of the Marikina River (Montalban station). Source:
UP-DREAM DOST technical panel
presentation.
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2.2.7 LEGEND
The LEGENDtab serves as a reference for water level in
the flood hazard map. The Project NOAH team has
chosen to classify the depth of flood in three types for
easier understanding. The low flood hazard means thatthe flood
is up to the waist. The medium flood hazard
means that the water level is from the waist up to the
head. Lastly, the high flood hazard, which is the most
dangerous, means that the inundation level is up to the
head.
Another factor that influences flood hazards is the
velocity of flowing water. Even if the water is only waist-
high, if the velocity of moving flood water is about 2
m/s2, then the hazard is considerable.
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3.3 Project NOAH Mobile Applications and Flood Patrol
Project NOAH for Android is developed by Rolly Rulete, a
software engineer and
Web app developer based in Davao. In July 2012, he and his
teammates Pablito Veroy
and Jay Albano won the Best Use of Smart APls at the first HTML
Hackathon heldin Davao City organized by Smart Communications Inc.
through the Smart Developer
Network (SMARTDevNet). For the contest, they developed a
full-blown version of
Project NOAH for mobile using HTML5.
The app was officially launched on October 17, 2012 at the
DOST-PAGASA office in Quezon City. The
event was attended by PAGASA administrator Dr. Nathaniel
Servando, DOST-STII director Raymund
Liboro, the Project NOAH team, representatives from SMART and
Ateneo Java Wireless Competency
Center, and various members of the media.
Except for the flood maps, all of the features on the Project
NOAH website are available in the mobile
app. Android phone users can now get near real-time updates on
weather and report floods wherever theymay be. This is definitely a
step forward in empowering the public to prepare for calamities and
other
hazard events.
The features are explained in detail in a section in Module 3
called Effective Use of the DOST-Project
NOAH Website. This chapter only aims to provide a basic
understanding of the app.
To download it, just visit the Play Store and search for Project
NOAH. Select the first entry on the list
and it will install in a matter of minutes.
Once it initializes, the screen will appear like this:
Figure 1.
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Figure 2. Figure 3.
Users have the option to view the information in two ways: the
MAP viewand the LIST view.
The MAP view (Figure 2) makes use of the Philippine map and
shows more visual information, utilizing
different colors as symbols and animated images. On the other
hand, the LISTview(Figure 3) is similar
to the MAP view except that the items are presented like a list
for easier use.
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.
Figure 4. Figure 5.
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Figure 6.
Figure 7.
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Figure 8. Figure 9.
Figure 10. Figure 11. Figure 12.
Users will be able to see things happening within the Philippine
Area of Responsibility (Figure 4), browse
through multi-transport satellite views (Figure 5), and check
information regarding temperature (Figure
6), rainfall (Figure 7), pressure (Figure 8), and humidity
(Figure 9). Animated images from the Doppler
radar stations of PAGASA, as well as the status of weather
stations, stream gauges, and rain gauges, are
also available to view.
Furthermore, users who have plans to go on vacation or conduct
an activity outdoors can be given a
warning. By selecting the probability of rainfall feature, a map
with icons of percentage chance of rain
will appear on the Philippine map for every key city in the
Philippines. (Figure 10)
Project NOAH for Android has access to the PAGASA Typhoon
Forecast, which is helpful in showing
the direction and movements of a typhoon in the Philippine area
of responsibility. The cyclone icons
indicate the location of the typhoon. (Figure 11)
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Figure 11.
The HELPpage answers questions related to the features and the
use of the app. Android users can refer
this as a guide whenever they experience problems in browsing
through and accessing the information.
The INFO page includes comprehensive details about Project NOAH
and the development of the app.
People can also obtain the emergency hotlines of different local
institutions in case of emergency, such asthe PAGASA, PNP, and
municipal offices. Furthermore, users can send an e-mail to Project
NOAH, view
information about the website, and rate the app. Finally, the
NEWS page shows the Twitter feeds of
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Flood Patrolis an Android mobile phone application developed by
the Ateneo Java
Wireless Competency Center (AJWCC).
The application extends the flood monitoring and flood mapping
service of Project
NOAH spearheaded by Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay. It allows people
to report floods
via the mobile phone and send it to Project NOAH for mapping.
Interested users can download it via
Google Play.
In addition to sharing information through text, users can send
photos of the actual flood. By using their
camera phone, they can upload pictures and include necessary
details in the report, such as location,
description of the incident, and flood depth. The app also
allows connectivity with other social
networking sites like Twitter, Facebook, and Gmail.
In case of emergency, the hotlines of various local agencies are
made available for user convenience in
the app.
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MODULE 4: FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
4.1 EQUIPMENT
4.1.1 AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATIONS
An automatic weather stationfunctions similarly to the
conventional weather station, except that itsautomated and is run
by electronic devices. Its facility is comprised of instrumentsand
equipmentused
to monitor and study atmospheric conditions, the data of which
are used to provide information for
weather forecasts and other climate-related needs. Most
automatic weather stations have the following:
a thermometer(to measure air and sea surface temperature)
a wind vane(to measure wind direction)
an anemometer(to measure wind speed)
a barometer(to measure atmospheric pressure)
a hygrometer(to measure humidity)
a rain gauge(to measure the amount of rainfall)
Some stations have a ceilometerto measure cloud height and
sensorsfor identifying falling precipitation.
4.1.2 RAIN GAUGES
A rain gauge(also called pluviometeror udometer) is an
instrument used to gather and measure the
amount of precipitation (usually in millimeters) over a period
of time. A simplerain gauge is a cylinder
whose one end is open and pointed at the sky. On its side are
marks that determine how much rain has
fallen. Other types of rain gauges include automatic rain
gauges, graduatedcylinders, tipping bucket
gauges, weighing precipitationgauges, and radargauges. To get
accurate readings, it is advised to
position the rain gauge in an open area or a location where
there are no obstructions such as trees or tall
structures.
4.1.3 STREAM GAUGES
A stream gaugeis a station used by hydrologiststo obtain
information about the water flowing in
streams and rivers. It collects data such as the amount and
height of water, the water surface elevation,
and the volumetric discharge.
This is a work in progress. Some graphics, information, and
figures might be updated.
For more details, please contact [email protected]
