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NOAA's Space Weather Program Contributions to NSWP
December 12, 2005
Presented toNSWP Assessment Team
NOAA’s Space Weather Program
• One of 45 Programs in NOAA• Charter Established, 2005• Mission Requirements
1. Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment
2. Provide timely and accurate space weather, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena
3. Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space wather data
4. Understand the processes that influence space weather develop applications for the user community
5. Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather needs
5
4 13
2
NOAA’s relationship to National Program
TerrestrialWeather
Coasts
Oceans
SpaceWeather
Fresh Water
Soil Moisture
Estuaries
Air Quality
Atmosphere
SnowPack
Environmental Services
Includes all observing systems required to support NOAA's mission (NOAA and non-NOAA data sources)
Space weather observations are integrated into NOSA
NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA)
NOAA is focused on building “an integrated global environmental observation and datamanagement system”—an Earth observation system that is comprehensive and sustained.
Design observing systems that support NOAA's mission and provide maximum value.
Monitor, Measure and Specify Data
for Today’s Space Weather
NOAA POES
NOAA GOES
NASA ACE
NASA SOHO
L1• ACE (NASA)
– Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles
– Magnetic field strength and direction
• SOHO (NASA)– Solar EUV Images– Solar Corona (CMEs)
• GOES (NOAA)– Energetic Particles– Magnetic Field– Solar X-ray Flux– Solar X-Ray Images • POES (NOAA)
– High Energy Particles– Total Energy Deposition– Solar UV Flux
• Ground Sites– Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)– Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor
(USAF)– SOON Sites (USAF)– RSTN (USAF)– Telescopes and Magnetographs– Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)– GPS (CORS)
Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV Lower energy electrons and protons begin on GOES N Heavy Ions begin on GOES R
Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field
0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT
X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms
Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array
Solar EUV Sensor (EUVS) – first on GOES N Monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in five bands between 10 and 125 nm
Coronagraph (SCOR) –GOES R ?? Pre-Planned Product Improvement (not yet manifested)
GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation
GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan) (Launch: 4/25/97, Operational)GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage)GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational)GOES N0P (Launch GOES N early 2006)GOES R Series starts 2012
GOES 10
SXI: NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership
Polar Observations (POES, METOP, NPOESS)
• POES and METOP– Total Energy Detector (TED)
• 50 eV to 20 KeV electrons and ions • Total energy deposition into atmosphere
– Medium Energy Proton And Electron Detector (MEPED)
• Electrons from 30 KeV to 2.5 MeV• Ions from 30 KeV to 6.9 MeV• Protons 16 MeV to >140 MeV
– Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV 2 or GOME on METOP)
• Primarily an ozone sensor• Monitors solar irradiance from 140 to 340 nm
• NPOESS – HEPS,MEPS, LEPS
• Particle sensors• similar to TED and MEPED
– Thermal Plasma Sensor • Electric fields and plasma temperatures• similar to DMSP SSIES
– AURORA• UV airglow sensor• Similar to DMSP SSUSI
– Total Solar and Spectral Irradiance Sensor • similar to NASA SORCE TIM and SIM
• Operational SatellitesNOAA14 (marginal SEM, marginal SBUV)NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV)NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV)NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV)NOAA-18 (working SEM, working SBUV)NOAA-N’ (2008)
METOP-1 (2006) European CollaborationMETOP-2 (2010) European CollaborationNPOESS (2013?)
Examples of Ground-Based Observationsused in Space Weather Operations
• Solar– AF SEON, NSO SOLIS, HAO
Mauna Loa, NJIT Big Bear, Stanford Wilcox, Mt. Wilson, Penticton radio F10.7, NSO GONG
• Cosmic Rays– Thule and McMurdo Neutron
Monitor
• Ionosphere– AF DISS Network and other
globally distributed ionosondes– NOAA CORS and other global
GPS networks
• Magnetic Field– USGS and Intermagnet
Magnetometers
• Energetic particle precipitation– Thule RIOmeter
Mt. Wilson Solar Magnetogram
Mauna Loa H-alpha
USGS Magnetometer
Real-time ionospheric electron density using CORS
• Near the Earth andunder the radiation belts -Shuttle and ISS ops:EVA scheduling, and occasional “sheltering”.Knowledge of current SWx situation required.
• In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledgeof current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhancesexploration.
• Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars: Need for optimizationof flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions.Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq
The Future: Observations are needed for Space Exploration
Core Space Science
Research
Living With a Star
NASA
TargetedSpace Weather
ResearchNSF/AF/ONR/NOAA
Center forIntegrated
Space WeatherModeling
NSF
Multi-UniversityResearch InitiativesAF/ONR
Space Weather Research Community
DoD SEC
Rapid Prototyping CentersVerification
Documentation
DoD Customers and Operations
Civilian Customers and Operations
CCMCModel Access
ValidationMetrics
Space Weather Model Development
Wang, Sheeley, Arge Solar Wind Model (Arge / NOAA CIRES)
Research to Operations: Testbed Products
Shue et al. Magnetopause Model (Detman / SEC)
POES Polar Cap Solar Protons (Evans, Greer / SEC)
CISM Ap Forecast Model (Weigel, Gehmeyr et al. / CU)
Weimer Magnetic Disturbance Model
(Weimer / MRC)
Polar Cap HF Propagation Model (Sauer / NGDC, Fuller-Rowell /
NOAA CIRES)
• Concept and Initiation– Be user focused (target highest priority needs)– Consider many sources of potential transition candidates
• Within and external to SEC (CISM, CCMC, USAF, commercial, etc.)
– Rank transition candidates against these factors:• Strategic Importance, Operational Significance, Implementation
Readiness
– Have commitment of SEC Management in SEC AOP
• Planning and Implementation– Employ appropriate level of project management principles– Use iterative development and validation– Generate routine experimental products in an operational-like
(systems and data) test bed environment
SEC Product Development and Transition Process
• Approval and Delivery– Track and sign off critical internal transition steps
• Documentation, software CM, support procedures, training, etc.
– Release as a NWS test product for external review– Finalize product and get SEC and NWS approval– Advertise new product in appropriately
• WWW, announcements, publications, meetings, etc.
• Maintain and Assess for Continual Improvement– Establish appropriate performance metrics– Track product performance through ongoing verification– Explore product enhancements or replacement as technology
evolves or new opportunities occur
SEC Product Development and Transition Process
Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations
An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes:
• Space environment effects• Impacts on economy, health, and safety• Information for decision makers • Relevant research• Service enhancements• Vendor meetings• Interagency coordination• International Space Environment Services meetings
April 5 - 8, 2005
http://sec.noaa.gov/sww
A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA
space weather services today:
• U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dep. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations
DOENuclear Reg Comm
SchlumbergerNY/PJM Grid
BallLoral
NESDIS/SOCCDigital Globe
BoeingLockheedAerospaceEchostar
NASASpace Command
ISS AstronautsFAA
AmericanUnited Airlines
NorthwestContinental
Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers
NOAA SpaceEnvironmentCenter
Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles
Commercial Space Transportation
Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology
Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation
TOKYOOSAKA
HONG KONGSHANGHAI
CHICAGO
NEW YORK
82 N
#1
#1A
#2
#3
#4
UAL POLAR ROUTES
BEIJING
Source: M. Stills, UAL
• The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month
• Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)
Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23
Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.– ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products– more than 250,000 unique customers per month– customers from 150 countries
NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.
• A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers
• Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) – 140,000 unique users monthly
• Five million POES file transfers per month (web only)– 185,000 unique users monthly– 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data
All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!
Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer SummaryTraffic and Customer Summary
NOAA space weather alerts and NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…subordinate groups…
NOAA/SECRadiation
Alert/Warning
NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group
NASA Mission Control•NASA Management•Flight Control•Biomedical Engineers•Surgeon
ESA (Europe) Mission Control
NASDA (Japan) Mission Control
CSA (Canada) Mission Control
RSA (Russia) Mission Control
Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems
Lockheed Martin Management
Service Begins
ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users:
Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United KingdomEducation .net (commercial)Germany RussiaAustralia Belgium
46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:
• 35 updating Plots, • 8 real-time lists• 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"
Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data
• A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers
• SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month.
Loss of Solar Wind DataLoss of Solar Wind Data
Impact: Loss of service includes: ending many geomagnetic storm warning services and a significant decline in accuracy and timing for the remaining geomagnetic storm forecast products; loss of key data input to 16 space weather models in operations or in development; and loss of key data for vendor services.
• Critical solar wind data used by NOAA is broadcast from the ACE NASA research satellite
• ACE has long passed its expected 5 year life time
• There is no backup system (that meets requirements) to replace ACE when it fails
• NOAA’s broad area announcement is refining best cost and schedule options for replacement including: - collaborative data purchase - lowest cost government satellite - lowest cost Triana/DSCVR refurbishment
Extended Mission
Nominal Mission
1996 2000 20082004 2012 2016
ACE
No SolarWind
Measurements
ACE – Solar Wind Monitoring
Loss of NOAA’s Ability to Issue Warnings of Geomagnetic Storms
Issue #1: NASA will end ACE program (NASA’s research mission accomplished; however, ACE has fuel reserve to last to ~2015).
Solutions: Extend ACE solar wind monitoring by: ● NASA transfers ACE program to NOAA ● NOAA funds NASA to continue ACE program Issue #2: ACE fails Solutions: NOAA establishes monitoring by: ● Data buy or satellite program (start ~2010) ● Relying on non-U.S. source (e.g., KuaFu mission - proposed Chinese space weather satellite with a launch date ~2012)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
mo
de
ls
Models - in development; being evaluated for operations; in use internationallyModels used in SEC Operations
Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind
DataData
• SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations• Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow• Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet
• ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six
P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts
A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes:
• Did a CME occur?• Will the CME hit the Earth, thus
causing a geomagnetic storm?• When will the storm begin?
- 1 to 3 days warning• How strong will the storm be?• How long will the storm last?
Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003
NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms
NOAA/SEC Real Time Data NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an - an absoluteabsolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations requirement to support worldwide DoD operations
NOAA/SEC Data(Primarily Satellite)
- Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations
>80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data
STRATCOM
USAFAir Force
Weather Agency
Joint Space Ops Center
Missile Defense Agency
Space Command
U.S. Northern Command and NORAD
Army and Navy Operations
National Reconnaissance Office
NationalSecurityImpacts
Impact AreaGeomagnetic and Radiation Storm
Predictions
Customer (examples) Action (examples) Cost (examples)
Spacecraft(Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects)
Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD
- Postpone launch - In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft
Loss of s/c can exceed$500MCommercial loss exceeds $1BWorst case storm - $100B
Electric Power(Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions)
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company
Many mitigating actions:- adjust/reduce system load - disconnect components, - postpone maintenance.
-Estimated loss per year ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms
- $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout)
Airlines (Communications)(Loss of flight HF radio communications)
United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc.
Divert polar flights, change flight plansChange altitude
Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight
$10-50k for re-routes
Airlines (Radiation)(Radiation dose on crew and passengers)
United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc.
Divert polar flights, change flight plansChange altitude (even at mid-latitudes)
- Cost ~$100k per diverted
flight
- Health risks
Surveying & Navigation(Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted)
FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc.
Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools
BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs
Vendor Industry(Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid)
Northwest Research Assoc., INCSolar Terrestrial DispatchMetatech Corp.
Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms
Out of business without solar wind data!
Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Weather ProductsWeather Products
Solar Wind Monitor Impact of ACE Failure on Space Weather Services
• Only known method of producing accurate warnings of geomagnetic storms with ~1 hour lead time– > 90 % reliability of predicting major storms
• Complete loss of short term geomagnetic storm warnings– 5 classes of products lost (Impulse, K4, K5, K6, >K7)
• Impact on other geomagnetic storm watches• Impact on radiation storm products• Customer Impacts
– Only source of reliable short term warnings disappears– Commerce impacted: Electric Power, Radio Communication
including airlines, Pipelines, Vendor Industry– U.S. Space Program and Federal Agencies Impacted
• NASA, FAA, NRA– International commerce impacted, same effects world-wide
National Research Council Report
www.nap.edu
DoD and NOAA should be the lead agencies in acquiring all the data sets needed for accurate specification and forecast modeling…
Solar Wind Monitor NASA’s ACE satellite at L1
• Beyond design lifetime (1997-2002)• NASA currently funds through 2005• Solar Wind monitor follow-on planning underway in NOAA and partnerships are being explored
ACE SatelliteAt L1
Commercial Aviation:Now and Future
Polar Routes OpenPolar Routes Open late 1990s late 1990s
(UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day)(UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day)
Develop New ProductsDevelop New Products
Existing NWS StructureExisting NWS Structure WAFS/ICAOWAFS/ICAO
Joint Planning & Joint Planning & DevelopmentDevelopment
OfficeOffice
Next Generation AirNext Generation AirTransportation SystemTransportation System
Triple the CapacityTriple the Capacityof Airspaceof Airspace
Aircraft Fly HigherAircraft Fly Higher More Radiation and More Radiation and Navigation IssuesNavigation Issues
Need more Space WeatherNeed more Space WeatherProducts and ServicesProducts and Services
New Products in SystemNew Products in System
Need more Space Need more Space WeatherWeather
Products and ServicesProducts and Services
Predicted Polar Route Capacity
2005 Est. 2009 2014 2019
Capacity 228,000 384,000 972,000 1,768,000
Growth Rate
13.9% 20.4% 12.7%
Source: Transport Canada Assumptions Report 2005-2019, September 2005, p. 60
SEC Observation Sources
GOESGOES
POESPOES
ACEACE
SOHOSOHO
•DISSDISS
•IMSIMS•SCINDASCINDA
•SEONSEON
•SOONSOON