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November 14, 2011

NOAA: Storms and Drought: Climate Change Impacts on the West

Presented by Eric Boldt

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE WEST

My story

You were thinking this?

The diverse climate and terrain in the Western U.S. results in annual rainfall of less than 5 inches in the deserts to more than 200 inches per year in the mountains.

√ True or

X False?

Poll Question

Diverse Climate & Terrain in the West

Wettest in the mountains

Driest in the deserts

Los Angeles County in Southern CA

LA

Coast-Valleys 0-1500 ft

Mountains 6000-10000 ft

Winter Stormsfloods

Heavy Precipitation

Strong Winds

Small Tornadoes

and waterspouts

High Surfand rip currents

Large WavesDecember 21, 2010

Western Storm Impacts

“Atmospheric Rivers” are known as…

a. A little known rock band from the Midwest

b. Rivers that flood when it rainsc. Plumes of tropical moisture in the

atmosphered. Jet streams

Poll Question

Amount of water vapor in the atmosphere to generate precipitation

Atmospheric Rivers associated with heavy precipitation events

Wetter

December 17-22, 2010

Atmospheric River brings 15-25 inches of rain to southern

CA in 5 days.

ARkStorm is a USGS led project to model the impacts of a catastrophic flood event in California.

The term “Atmospheric River” is used to explain the moist conveyor belt associated with Pacific storms. Also known as the “pineapple express.”

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/

NASA/NOAA project to measure Atmospheric Rivers

Aircraft drone

NASA’s Global Hawk launched from Edward’s AFB in February 2011

WISPAR – Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers project measured water vapor content from approaching storms during February 2011.

Flight path of NASA’s Global Hawk for a mission in February 2011

What severe weather phenomenon results in the most annual fatalities in the U.S.?

a. Tornadoesb. Lightningc. Flash floodsd. Hurricanes

Poll Question

Heavy precipitation days have increased (measurable trend)

Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over North America that falls in heavy events

Increase in precipitation intensity is consistent with the observed increases in atmospheric water vapor

Precipitation intensity is a key component of severe weather.

Flash floods, debris flows, and snowfall intensity can be very destructive and life-threatening.

Winter storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent,

with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.

Source – www.globalchange.gov

More powerful storms will increase threats to life…

…and property

Time For Questions

???

Droughtheat waves

wildfires

How important is mountain snowpack for water supply in the Western U.S.?

a. Not that importantb. Somewhat importantc. Importantd. Very important

Poll Question

Nearly 75% of the water supply in the Western

U.S. comes from mountain snowpack

65% in California – source Dept. Water Resources

WOW!

Departure from normal snow depth for February 27, 2011

Lake Oroville, CA – Feb. 2008

Drought seriously depletes water resources

Winter Summer Winter

When the West would normally get precipitation it was abnormally dry.

January 2011

Drier

Drier

Annual Precipitation - % Change

Heat waves impact health mainly due to.....[place clip art on a box below]

High humidity Warm nights Existing health issue

• warm overnight temperatures• prolonged temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal• combination heat and humidity makes it feel hotter• poor air quality and smoke compounds health impacts

Heat Waves

Increase in the percentage of very warm nights over North AmericaIncrease in the percentage of very warm nights over North America

Warm night temperatures will increase

...On average excessive heat claims more lives each year

than floods, lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes

combined...

Source – NWS

Temperature Change

Wildfires

Are fires becoming more frequent?

Are they more severe?

What do you think? Are wildfires more severe than in the past?

[place clip art on a box below]

Yes

No

Don’t know

Poll Question

More acres burned per fire

National Interagency Fire Center – wildland fire statistics

More total acres burned annually

Other factors are involved like disease, forest age, politics, causes, or is it climate change?

Time For Questions

???

Monsoonflash floods

Most areas of Northwest Mexico and the Southwest U.S. receive over half their annual

precipitation from the monsoon

Source – NWS Tucson, AZ

Winter Summer Winter

Monsoon depends on winds and heat to transport moisture from the Gulf of California

Monsoon moisture brings summer thunderstorms to much of the Rockies. Flash floods, and in some cases, wildfires, are caused by these storms.

Average monsoon start dates by decade 1950s July 1 1960s July 2 1970s July 2 1980s July 6 Latest on record (7/25/1987) 1990s July 3 2000s July 7 Earliest on record (6/17/2000)

Will climate change impact the monsoon? ...possibly

Other Severe Weather

tornadoes hurricanes

Do tornadoes occur in California?

a. Yesb. No c. Don’t know

Poll Question

Riverside, CA 2008

Pt. Mugu, CA 2008

Sacramento, CA 2005

Long Beach, CA 2009

In southern California – this 1200 sq. mile area has the highest frequency of tornadoes west of the Continental Divide

J. Hales study 1997-1998 El Niño (32 events in 21 days)

Tornado history across the United States – since 1950

There is no clear trend in the frequency or strength of tornadoes

since the 1950s for the United States as a whole...

...however, the frequency of favorable conditions for severe

thunderstorms is likely to increase.

Source – www.globalchange.gov

Have tropical cyclones occurred in California?

a. Yesb. No c. Don’t know

Poll Question

1858 Hurricane – San Diego1939 Tropical Storm – Long Beach

3 other known tropical cyclones have impacted the SW – California, Arizona

Hurricane Linda 1997

Tropical Cyclone Storm Tracks

As ocean temperatures rise, the strongest

hurricanes are likely to increase in both the

eastern Pacific and the Atlantic.

Source – www.globalchange.gov

Time For Questions

???

Climateobservationsresources

More than 11,000 volunteers take observations on farms, in urban and suburban areas, National Parks, seashores, and mountaintops.

COOP – Cooperative Observer Program

CoCoRaHS is a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail, and snow) in their local communities.

NOAA Global Monitoring ExhibitN W S L o s A n g e l e s / O x n a r d , C A

www.weather.gov

RECAPWinter storms bring many types of severe weather to the West

Drought severely impacts water resources

Heat waves and wildfires may get worse

The monsoon is critical for desert Southwest precip

Tornadoes and hurricanes do occur in California

Opportunities for climate observing and NWS resources

Eric BoldtWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard

eric.boldt@noaa.gov

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