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NOAA NextGen WeatherNOAA NextGen Weather
Mark B. Miller
NOAA NextGen Weather Program Manager
December 2, 2010
Mark B. Miller
NOAA NextGen Weather Program Manager
December 2, 2010
2
AgendaAgenda
NextGen Background
Program Alignment
Current Status
Challenges
Summary
NextGen Background
Program Alignment
Current Status
Challenges
Summary
3
The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
NextGen is a Congressionallymandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation Systemin order to:
Increase capacity and reliability
Improve safety and security
Minimize the environmental impact of aviation
Weather impacts today:Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information
NextGen is a Congressionallymandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation Systemin order to:
Increase capacity and reliability
Improve safety and security
Minimize the environmental impact of aviation
Weather impacts today:Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information
Aviation Weather Aviation Weather TodayToday
NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)
Not integrated Not integrated into aviation into aviation decision support decision support systems (DSS)systems (DSS)
Today’s Today’s requirements can requirements can lead to lead to inconsistent infoinconsistent info
Low temporal Low temporal resolution (for resolution (for aviation decision aviation decision making making purposes)purposes)
Disseminated in Disseminated in minutesminutes
Updated by Updated by scheduleschedule
Fixed product Fixed product formats (graphic formats (graphic or text)or text)
““Stovepipes”Stovepipes”
Totally integrated Totally integrated into DSSinto DSS
Updated Updated requirements/ requirements/ Nationally Nationally consistentconsistent
High temporal High temporal resolutionresolution
Disseminated in Disseminated in secondsseconds
Updated by Updated by events events
Flexible formatsFlexible formats
The 4-D Cube!The 4-D Cube!
***The total cost of U.S. domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as
$41 billion for 2007.***
4
NextGenNextGen
Improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying:
Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance
Digital communications
Layered adaptive security
Weather integrated into decision-making
Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management
Net-centric information access for operations
Improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying:
Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance
Digital communications
Layered adaptive security
Weather integrated into decision-making
Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management
Net-centric information access for operations
5
Approach: NextGen4-D Weather Data CubeApproach: NextGen4-D Weather Data Cube
NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will access:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)
NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will not be a big database, but a “system of systems” with metadata tagged, 4-dimensional, gridded weather information
NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube is a ‘pathfinder’ for other service areas, not just aviation
NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will access:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)
NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will not be a big database, but a “system of systems” with metadata tagged, 4-dimensional, gridded weather information
NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube is a ‘pathfinder’ for other service areas, not just aviation
66
Single Authoritative SourceSingle Authoritative Source
The 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Data Cube
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, Military, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
FAA and NWS collaboratively determine contents of SAS subject to FAA air traffic management needs
The 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Data Cube
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, Military, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
FAA and NWS collaboratively determine contents of SAS subject to FAA air traffic management needs
7
Program AlignmentProgram Alignment
IT Services
Architecture and design
Prototype systems
Integrating existing systems
Production and deployment of systems
Enhancement of NWS infrastructure
Contents
Forecaster tools and capabilities
Model improvement and development
Aviation weather parameter generation (e.g., thunderstorms, icing, turbulence, etc.)
Verification of 4-dimensional weather data
IT Services
Architecture and design
Prototype systems
Integrating existing systems
Production and deployment of systems
Enhancement of NWS infrastructure
Contents
Forecaster tools and capabilities
Model improvement and development
Aviation weather parameter generation (e.g., thunderstorms, icing, turbulence, etc.)
Verification of 4-dimensional weather data
8
Current StatusCurrent Status
Executed first formal year of program
Completed successful multi-organization Capability Evaluation in Sep 2010
Entered into acquisition in FY11 for IT infrastructure improvements
Establishing R&D for:
Single Authoritative Source
Verification techniques
Advanced forecaster tools and techniques
Higher resolution modeling
Executed first formal year of program
Completed successful multi-organization Capability Evaluation in Sep 2010
Entered into acquisition in FY11 for IT infrastructure improvements
Establishing R&D for:
Single Authoritative Source
Verification techniques
Advanced forecaster tools and techniques
Higher resolution modeling
9
Challenges:Transitioning Research to Ops
Challenges:Transitioning Research to Ops
Need for basic research in fulfilling NextGen requirements is understood
Need for applied research in delivering capabilities required for NextGen is paramount
Balance of the two is key to success
Must link operational requirements to basic and applied research and vice versa
Need for basic research in fulfilling NextGen requirements is understood
Need for applied research in delivering capabilities required for NextGen is paramount
Balance of the two is key to success
Must link operational requirements to basic and applied research and vice versa
10
Challenges:NWS Forecast ProcessChallenges:NWS Forecast Process
In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, NWS forecaster responsibilities will change
Some current initiatives under evaluation:
Autonowcaster – convective initiation
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output
Real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is no longer a goal, but a necessity!
In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, NWS forecaster responsibilities will change
Some current initiatives under evaluation:
Autonowcaster – convective initiation
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output
Real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is no longer a goal, but a necessity!
11
Challenges:NWS Forecast ProcessChallenges:NWS Forecast Process
NWS Regional initiative to provide gridded ceiling and visibility
Several forecast offices in the NWS Eastern Region producing TAFs completely consistent with all NDFD short term grids
Expanding to other WFOs in the Eastern and Central Region
Produces important forecast guidance for GA community where no TAF exists today
NWS Regional initiative to provide gridded ceiling and visibility
Several forecast offices in the NWS Eastern Region producing TAFs completely consistent with all NDFD short term grids
Expanding to other WFOs in the Eastern and Central Region
Produces important forecast guidance for GA community where no TAF exists today
12
Challenges:Product ConsistencyChallenges:Product Consistency
A huge challenge for NWS (and the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs
Weather consumers are barraged by weather data… the easy answer is to plan for the worse
Artificial “boundaries” on products
A huge challenge for NWS (and the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs
Weather consumers are barraged by weather data… the easy answer is to plan for the worse
Artificial “boundaries” on products
13
The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue
Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers:
Public:
This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…
Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers:
Public:
This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…
14
The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue
Weather knows no bounds
15
Challenges:Numerical Model Enhancements
Challenges:Numerical Model Enhancements
NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts
NOAA developing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution
Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away
NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts
NOAA developing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution
Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away
16
Challenges:Probabilistic InformationChallenges:Probabilistic Information
From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…
We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty
Aviation decisions are deterministic
From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…
We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty
Aviation decisions are deterministic
“likely”
“I believe…”
“There is ahigh
Probability…”
“This model Indicates…”
“numerous”
30%
17
Challenges:International Harmonization
Challenges:International Harmonization
Air travel is international
Transition to more automated and integrated ATM systems requires harmonized, global scale weather and weather impacts
We need continuous international coordination to ensure seamless weather information for air transportation including:
Harmonized data exchange
Agreed upon governance structure
Air travel is international
Transition to more automated and integrated ATM systems requires harmonized, global scale weather and weather impacts
We need continuous international coordination to ensure seamless weather information for air transportation including:
Harmonized data exchange
Agreed upon governance structure
18
SummarySummaryFoundation established for NOAA participation in NextGen
Developing IT architecture and design for IOC
Maturing program and management processes
Establishing R&D initiatives for MOC and FOC
Foundation established for NOAA participation in NextGen
Developing IT architecture and design for IOC
Maturing program and management processes
Establishing R&D initiatives for MOC and FOC