Dr. Ghulam Rasul Chief Meteorologist

Pakistan Meteorological Department rasul@pmd.gov.pk

GEOSS WG- Asian Water Cycle Initiative

Tokyo, May 27, 2014

PAKISTAN Water-Agriculture-Socioeconomic

Linkages

PAKISTAN

INDIA

AFGHANISTAN

INDUS

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Indus River Basin: Water scarcity: a frightening perspectiv

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Too Much Water and Too Little Water

o Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 oProlonged Drought 1999-2002 oHistoric River Flooding 2010, 2011, 2012 oTropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009,2010, 2011, 2012 oSnowmelt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010 oDrought at sowing stage 2009, 2010, 2011 oAbnormally wet April-May resulted into crop damage

Major Issues

Highly variable river flows-high flows in July, August and very low in the rest of year

Vulnerability to floods, drought and GLOF

Highly topographic heterogeneity and remoteness making in-situ measurement difficult

Degrading water quality due to exploitation of groundwater, effluent from agriculture and industries

Arid coastal strips and mangrove areas are under increased environmental stress from reduced fresh water flows

Lacking in adaptive capacity of Institutions and Individuals

International Projects

1. Impact of Climate Change on Melting Glaciers and Water Cycle

Variability in Asian River Basin. Funding Agency – APN 2. Application of WEB-DHMS to Flood and Drought Pakistan Basins in

UIB. Supported by: APN-UT-AWCI 3. Differentiation of solid and Liquid Precipitation in Upper Indus Basin

(UIB) for Hydrological Models. Funding Agency: DFID 4. Strengthening Flood Forecasting Capabilities in Pakistan. Funding

Agency: UNESCO 5. Climate Change adaptation in water and agriculture: IDRC and DFID

funding 6. Early Warning System for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in

UIB. Funding Agency: UNDP 7. Establishment of Flash Flood Guiding System. Funding Agency:

USAID 8. Demonstration of adaptation technologies at watershed scale. USAID

funding

APN PROJECT-CBA2012-03NMY-RASUL

Impact of Climate Change on Glacier Melting and Water Cycle Variability in Asian River Basins

To improve climate change assessment and downscaling techniques;

Building the capacity of member countries for climate projections;

Training of professionals to apply WEB-DHM-S (Hydrological Model);

Assessment of glacier melt and hydrological regime shift in the light of climate change scenarios;

Assessment of water cycle variability and development of drought early warning system.

APN Project Activities

Future Temperature Projections for Pakistan

Future Rainfall Projections for Pakistan

Projections of Climate Impacts on Wheat Yield - Best Calibrated

Mean yield changes (%) from 20 GCM-based scenarios (top) mean-only “delta” scenarios, and (bottom) scenarios including both mean and variability changes.

Changes in Agroclimatic Matrix

Sialkot Mean Rainfall Minimum

Temperature Maximum

Temperature

Baseline Yield 0.64 0.004 -0.48

Future Yield 0.73 0.02 -0.57

Nankana Mean Rainfall Minimum

Temperature Maximum

Temperature

Baseline Yield 0.43 -0.20 -0.39

Future Yield 0.29 -0.46 -0.47

Sheikhupura Mean Rainfall Minimum

Temperature Maximum

Temperature

Baseline Yield -0.14 -0.37 -0.08

Future Yield 0.22 -0.52 -0.39

Hafizabad Mean Rainfall Minimum

Temperature Maximum

Temperature

Baseline Yield 0.26 -0.26 -0.35

Future Yield 0.20 -0.32 -0.32

Gujranwala Mean Rainfall Minimum

Temperature Maximum

Temperature

Baseline Yield -0.05 0.24 0.14

Future Yield -0.06 -0.02 0.01

Change in Pearson’s correlation (r) between Wheat yields (DSSAT) and grow ing season mean climate metrics in the baseline climate (top) and in the RCP8.5 Mid-Century future climate scenarios (bottom)

• A Comprehensive adaptation package was developed by combining • Bio-physical factors

• Policy change

• Socio-economic factors

• Information Technology and others

Solution to the Problem

• Increase in planting density (15-25 %) • Early sowing / transplantation • Reduction in irrigation (15-25%) • High yielding cultivars under stressed climatic

conditions • Supportive input/output price policy • Off-farm income opportunities

Adaptation Package

• About 84 percent farm households would adopt the package due to increase in net farm income

• Significant reduction in poverty among farm households

• Improvement in the livelihood due to increase in farm income

Adaptation Impacts

Gainers 26%

Losers 74%

Before Adaptations

Los

ses

(Rs)

0

Farm Population (%)

After Adaptations

Adopters

84%

Non adopters 16%

Create awareness among the common farmer

Need for effective adaptation policy

Climate Smart Technologies like Efficient Irrigation Systems and change in cropping pattern etc.

Comprehensive research programs to address the climate change and climate variability to ensure food security and efficient resource management

Farming Community • Actions • Adjustments • Management

Government • Strengthen the Institutions • Policy Support • Infrastructure Development

Society • Awareness • Public-private partnership • Capacity Building

Global Partnership • Sharing the Ideas • Bearing the responsibilities • Trade

Responsibilities

Roles & Responsibilities

Lead Local Organizations

1. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad

2. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad

3. University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF)

4. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Lahore

5. Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), Islamabad

6. National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad

7. Foreman Christian College Charted (FCC) University, Lahore

International Organizations 1. University of Tokyo-Japan

2. ICIMOD-Nepal

3. Colorado University-USA

4. BIOFORSK - Norway