NigeriaRoss Gartley

January 27, 2000

Pop : 121 million GDP/capita: $285 Poverty : 66% Debt/GDP : 70% “Democracy” oil, cocoa

Political Development: Nigeria

Historical Overview Democracy? Political Development Challenges Economic Development Dual Economy Conclusion

Intro

Classical authoritarian regime in transition

Political development toward a democratic state requires greater political integration and economic independence

Role of MNC and DFI have limited the development of Nigeria by exacerbating social cleavages.

Historical Overview

1960 : Nigeria unified as a federal state 3 primary states: West, North and East :

source of conflict; divided according to cultural concentration

Various succession movements Founding of Republic of Biafra lack of political integration: Ethnic conflict Rise of authoritarian regime Transition to civilian rule?

Democracy?

Foundations of democracy in 1960:free election, multiparty system

3 groups of rights as a precondition to democracy existed at time

participation; political integration Government infrastructure Accountability

Political Development

Federalism 1st and 2nd Republic Politics directed by economic policy; states are

in competition Widespread corruption; spurred MNC & DFI

and bilateral aid (tied). Failure of republics : rise of authoritarian

regime

Challenges

Class alignment : Upper class gained status due to their intermediary role b/w MNC and their middle/lower class supporters.

Underdevelopment is the bi-product of development

Domestic and international core-periphery relationship

Vulnerable to international economic fluctuations

Foreign owned debt

Liabilities

Composition of total debt 1998(US$ millions)

8%

2%

47%20%

23%A : IBRD

B : IDA

C : Bilateral

D : Private

E : S-Term

Single Industry Economy: Oil

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1 2 3 4

Total Exports

Oil Exports

Dependency Approach : Dual Economy

Portion of Nigerian economy is modern : based heavily on exports (oil) and manufacturing. Technologically advanced

The traditional sector is losing K,L and land, further exacerbating problem.

Modern sector is exploiting traditional sector thereby further increasing its power.

Elites invest interest and $ in modern sector vs. traditional. Undermine heritage; creating resentment 1983

Economic Development

Enormous economic potential : local participation needed.

Active state participation : capital accumulation

Yet annual growth rate lies below 3rd world expectations (4%)

Per Capita income ‘97<‘60 in real terms 66% of population lives below poverty line MNC account for 85% of economic activity

Empirical Evidence: Microcase

Correlation CoefficientsN: 167 Missing: 7Cronbach's alpha: 0.429LISTWISE deletion (2-tailed test)

DEMOCRACY ECON DEVELDEMOCRACY 1 0.452 **ECON DEVEL 0.452 ** 1

Correlation CoefficientsN: 167 Missing: 7Cronbach's alpha: 0.002LISTWISE deletion (1-tailed test)

DEMOCRACY ECON DEVELGDPDEMOCRACY 1 0.452 ** 0.147 * ECON DEVEL 0.452 ** 1 0.213 **GDP 0.147 * 0.213 ** 1

Con’t

Correlation CoefficientsN: 110 Missing: 64Cronbach's alpha: 0.101LISTWISE deletion (1-tailed test)

QUAL. LIFE ECON DEVELQUAL. LIFE 1 0.850 **ECON DEVEL 0.850 ** 1

Correlation CoefficientsN: 109 Missing: 65Cronbach's alpha: Not calculated--negative correlationsLISTWISE deletion (1-tailed test)

QUAL. LIFE ECON DEVEL MULTI-CULT DEMOCRACYQUAL. LIFE 1 0.854 ** -0.626 ** 0.621 **ECON DEVEL 0.854 ** 1 -0.530 ** 0.573 **MULTI-CULT -0.626 ** -0.530 ** 1 -0.401 **DEMOCRACY 0.621 ** 0.573 ** -0.401 ** 1

Conflict : Political Development

ECON DEVEL LEAST DEV.DEVELOPING

INDUSTRIAL

2

7

DEMOCRACY

NONE POLITICAL VIOLENCE WARFAREC . C O N F L I C T

Conclusion

Foreign industrial development in Nigeria has substantially increased its dependence : Single industry economy

Political development can only occur with greater role of state

But greater role of state is only possible with political integration of divergent cultures found within Nigeria

Olusegun Obasanjo : can he succeed where all others have failed?