Nigeria

NigeriaA microcosm of everything wrong

with the world today

Most populous nation in Africa (140 million)

GDP per capita = $2,831

HDI rank #153 The Economist’s

Democracy Index ranking = #120 (2 spots higher than Russia, 20 ahead of China)

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power First country we’re studying where “the

national question” is an issue: Should we even be one country?

Constitutionalism – eluding Nigeria so far First constitution in 1914, 8 more since (latest in

1999) Military and civilian leaders alike have never felt

the need to obey constitutions, and often write new ones upon taking power

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power Legitimacy

Newly independent (1960) Highly fragmented along ethnic, regional,

religious lines The sole stable national institution is the military

Leads to legitimacy of military’s right to rule Most leaders have been generals

Extremely low legitimacy of government, overall

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power Legitimacy

Contradicting political traditions Rule of Law from British colonial days Personalized authority of military leaders since

1960 Massive corruption, distrust of government

Political History 3 Major Eras

Pre-Colonial (800 - 1860) Colonial (1860 – 1960) Since Independence (1960 – Present)

Pre-Colonial Era (800 – 1860) Trends

Trade connections along Niger river with North Africa and other civilizations

Early influence of Islam – elite tended to be educated in Arabic and learned the sharia

Kinship-based politics – rule was at village level, and were basically extended families

Complex political identities – some centralized kingdoms mixed in with small village governance

Democratic impulses – rulers expected to seek counsel and govern in the interests of the people

Colonial Era (1860 - 1960) Trends

Authoritarian rule – British established chiefs to rule on their behalf

Interventionist state – no “free market”… chiefs expected to rule to meet economic goals set by the British

Individualism – self-interest of capitalism was mixed with state-domination of the economy (uh oh…)

Christianity – spread mainly to south and west (Islam entrenched in the north)

Intensification of ethnic politics – Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba competed for “rewards” from British

Era Since Independence (1960 – Present) Trends

Parliamentary replaced by Presidential government in 1979 since majority was difficult to establish

Intensification of ethnic conflict – Hausa-Fulani formed a majority coalition with Igbo, angering the Yoruba

Military rule – frequent coups Personalized rule and corruption Federalism – attempt to pacify ethnic tension, though

military leaders did not allow much local power Economic dependence on oil – enriches those in power,

who ignore other sectors of the economy

Era Since Independence (1960-Present) Elected leadership in 1960, overthrown in military coup

in 1966 3 more coups by 1976, Olusegun Obasanjo takes power

Willfully steps down for democratically elected president in 1979 2 more coups by 1985, when Ibrahim Babangida takes

power Resigned under public pressure in 1993 when he promised to

step down for civilian leadership, then voided the election Sani Abacha (1993-1998) rules brutally, dies of a heart attack

(maybe poisoned?), replaced by Vice President Abubakar Obasanjo elected for 2 terms (1999-2007) Umaru Yar’Adua elected in 2007

All elections finished with concerns of fraud, violence, etc.

Ibrahim Babangida Military President,

1985 – 1993 Resigned

Sani Abacha Military President,

1993 – 1998 Died in office

Olusegun Obasanjo Military President,

1976 – 1979 Resigned for democratic

leadership

President, 1999 – 2007 Term limited

Umaru Yar’Adua President, 2007 –

2010 Died in office

Goodluck Jonathan President, 2010 –

Present

Political Culture Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) - exchange of

political and economic favors to build support of the leadership

State attempts to control rich civil society (and mostly fails) – many independent associational groups still thriving

Tension between modernity and tradition Religious conflict – centered on role of sharia in

law and political authority

Geographic Influence Northwest – Hausa-Fulani,

Muslim Northeast – Kanuri,

Muslim Middle-Belt – smaller

groups, mix of Muslim and Christian

Southwest – Yoruba, mix of religions

Southeast – Igbo, Catholic and Christian

South – various minorities

Citizens, Society, and the State Necessary condition for democratization:

citizens need to have time to pay attention and participate in the political process

Problem for Nigeria: 63% live in poverty, less than $1 per day Large gap between rich and poor (Gini = 48.8) Health issues – AIDS epidemic (3.1% of adults

carry HIV, 2nd most carriers in the world) Literacy – 72.1%% for men, 50.4% for women

Citizens, Society, and the State Cleavages – one of the most fragmented

societies in the world Ethnicity – 250 to 400 distinct ethnic groups with different

languages and religions in many cases Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, and Yoruba tribes are largest, but can’t

speak each other’s languages and have no contact generally

Religion – 50% Muslim, 40% Christian, 10% various native religions

Disputes rooted in preferential treatment British gave to Christians, role of sharia in Nigerian law

Citizens, Society, and the State Cleavages – one of the most fragmented

societies in the world Region – North (predominantly Muslim) vs.

South (predominantly Christian) Urban/rural differences – political organizations,

interest groups, media only operate in cities Social class – elite are those with ties to the

state, who often use the treasury to benefit themselves

Citizens, Society, and the State Public Opinion and Political Participation

Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) – local officials treat public offices as personal fiefdoms

Civil Society – many associational interest groups free to operate, some strengthen Nigerian unity, others work to fragment society on ethnic/religious lines

Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) – founded by Ken Saro-Wiwa to get oil benefits for Ogoni living in Niger Delta, hold oil companies to environmental standards

Saro-Wiwa was publicly executed in 1995


Voting Behavior – no one knows how many Nigerians participate because of the irregularities in their elections (estimates around 66%)

Attitudes Toward Government – distrust of most officials, cynicism

Nigeria ranks 144 of 177 on the “Corruption Perception Index”

Abacha’s heart attack was celebrated as the “coup from heaven”


Protests, Participation, and Social Movements Increasing protest and organization/mobilization

since 1999 Often focused around international oil companies

Linkage Institutions Political Parties

Regionally based Extreme factionalization resulted in development

of so many parties, there is no coherent party system

Parties appear and disappear based on leaders


Currently: People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Obasanjo, Yar’Adua,

and Jonathan’s party of power, won across the country in 2007, but mainly in the south in 2011

All Progressive’s Congress (APC) – Brand new (2013) merger of APN, CPC, and ANPP, liberal middle-class opposition party

Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) – classical liberalism, won 5% in 2011 presidential election, may soon merge with APC

These parties are becoming less regional, and increasingly run a “ticket” with candidates of different regions, campaigning across all of Nigeria

BUT… 2011 looked pretty regional…

2011 Presidential Election by State Green – States won

by Jonathan (PDP) Red – States won

by Buhari (CPC) Blue – States won

by Ribadu (ACN)


Why? 1999 Constitutional requirement

Winning presidential candidate must receive 25% of votes cast in at least 2/3 of all states

Attempt to prevent regional candidates from winning the presidency and unite Nigeria

Linkage Institutions Elections

Independent National Election Commission (INEC) requires parties to qualify for national elections with at least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states

Legislative 109 Senators elected by popular vote (3 per state, 1 from

Abuja) 360 House of Representatives elected in SMD plurality

elections Presidential

2 ballot majority system (with the regional requirement) All elections usually involve fraud and irregularities (2011

was considered a “success”)

Linkage Institutions Interest Groups

Pretty healthy, though influence is restricted by corruption and prebendalism

Labor Unions – Babangida attempted to restrain their influence through corporatism, but they are still active

Business Interests – historically collaborated with military, now push for economic reforms

Human Rights Groups – protested Babangida and Abacha, promote democracy

Mass Media – well developed, independent press in Nigeria mostly in the South, also reflective of regional divisions

Critical of government and corruption

State Institutions Federalism

36 states Doesn’t really work… dependent on central

government Executive – President and Cabinet

Directly elected May appoint officials to all parts of national

government without approval of legislature (leads to patrimonialism)

State Institutions Bureaucracy – assumed to be bloated, corrupt,

and inefficient Para-Statals – privately owned, but headed by

government appointees (part of the patron-client network) Provide public utilities or major industries

Nigerian Electric Power Administration (NEPA) – called “Never Expect Power Again” by Nigerians

Changed name to Power Holding Company (PHC) – called “Please Hold Candle” by Nigerians

State corporatism – para-statals serve to give the appearance of public/private cooperation, while really giving the state control

State Institutions Legislature – parliamentary until 1979, now

bicameral National Assembly Senators and Representatives serve 4 year terms, elected

the week before the president Senate

109 Senators, 3 per state, 1 from Abuja Very diverse given the different regions that are equally

represented House of Representatives

360 members elected by SMD plurality Very little power, but occasionally acts as a check on

president (like when Obasanjo wanted a 3rd term)

Nigeria’s National Assembly in Abuja

Nigeria’s National Assembly in Abuja

State Institutions Judiciary

Federal and state courts with an appeals process up to the Supreme Court

Strong and autonomous after independence, but since ravaged by military rule

Most judges today are not well versed in law, easily manipulated by the government

Theoretically in charge of judicial review, not practically Law is complicated by the sharia which operates in 12

northern states, controversially

Judges in Nigeria Play Dress-Up

State Institutions Military – Guess what? It’s strong.

Military made distinctions between “military in government” and “military in barracks” after early coups

“Military in government” presidents (like Babangida) had to restrain influence of traditional military

Appointed senior military to cabinet positions to make them part of his patronage network

The best place for young Nigerians to improve their lives, demonstrate their talents

Controversial, but it is the one national institution with the capability to restore order

Just another daily training mission, or perhaps the start of the next transfer of power… can’t tell from this photo

Public Policy Issues in Nigeria Oil – Strength or Weakness?

Brings wealth from rents and gives Nigeria international clout, but makes Nigeria a rentier state

Structural Adjustment Collapse of oil prices in 1980’s led to massive public debt World Bank and IMF worked to restructure Nigeria’s debt

provided it would implement “shock therapy” and reduce its dependence on oil

Private economy still hasn’t expanded much since, parastatals still under state control

Documents

Nigeria