Upload
ross
View
69
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Nick Redfern. An empirical approach to film audiences. BFI Media Studies Conference. 7-9 July 2010. http://nickredfern.wordpress.com. Introduction Data sources The study Results and conclusions. Introduction. Key Aim: to understand the behaviour of film audiences from box office data. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
http://nickredfern.wordpress.com
7-9 July 2010BFI Media Studies Conference
Key Aim: to understand the behaviour of film audiences from box office data
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Introduction
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Key Aim: to understand the behaviour of film audiences from box office data
Four areas of investigation:
The relationship between the gender of a film’s main characters and the mean 3-day gross ratio
The impact of constraints on audiences – the ‘holiday effect’
Understanding the popularity of films at the UK box office
Comparing the behaviour of British and American audiences
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Introduction
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
some sources of box office datasome methods of analysissome results and conclusions
Key Aim: to understand the behaviour of film audiences from box office data
Four areas of investigation:
The relationship between the gender of a film’s main characters and the mean 3-day gross ratio
The impact of constraints on audiences – the ‘holiday effect’
Understanding the popularity of films at the UK box office
Comparing the behaviour of British and American audiences
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Introduction
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Outline:
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
The UK Film CouncilBox Office MojoInternet Movie Database
The UK Film Council
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Access: www.ukfilmcouncil.org.uk/weekendboxoffice
Scope: UK box office from July 2001 to present day
Quality of data: very high
Data breakdown: none
Analysis: none
Advantages: free to access excellent coverage of British films Excel format available
Disadvantages: little information outside top 15 films no historical data prior to July 2001 UK data conflated with Ireland
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
The UK Film CouncilBox Office MojoInternet Movie Database
Box Office Mojo
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Access: www.boxofficemojo.com
Scope: US box office, international box office, historical data
Quality of data: very high for US box office, high for rest of world
Data breakdown: people, genres, franchises, showdowns
Analysis: news service, historical comparisons
Advantages: free to access wide variety of data for each film
Disadvantages: UK data conflated with Ireland and Malta dollar orientated definition of weekly gross is Friday to Thursday
Access: www.imdb.com
Scope: domestic/international box office available on a film-by-film basis
Quality of data: very high to very poor depending on film
Data breakdown: none
Analysis: none
Advantages: free to access
Disadvantages: data may not be available for a particular film reproduces data available elsewhere box office presented in local currency
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
The UK Film CouncilBox Office MojoInternet Movie Database
Internet Movie Database
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
UK films onlyreleased at UK box office in 2007 and 2008minimum of 7 consecutive weeks of data (from opening week)feature films only, excluding documentaries
Sampling criteria:
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
SampleMethodsStatistical analyses
Sample
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Source: UK Film Council box office archive, Box Office Mojo
Sample size: 50 films, including Hollywood films produced in the UK (e.g. The Bourne Ultimatum) mid-level UK films (e.g. The Duchess, Son of Rambow) small-budget independent UK productions (e.g. The Flying Scotsman)
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
SampleMethodsStatistical analyses
Methods
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Outliers: an observation that deviates markedly from the other members of its class definition: Q₁ - (IQR × 1.5), Q₃ + (IQR × 1.5) for each class outliers class are removed from their class and discussed separately
Mean 3-day gross ratio:
where n = number of weeks (n ≥ 7), wi = weekend gross (Friday to Sunday), Wi= total weekly gross (Monday to Sunday)
Variables: genre gender as defined by narrative, main characters, presence of stars week of release country of release
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
SampleMethodsStatistical analyses
Statistical analyses
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Descriptive statistics: median, 95% confidence interval (Bonett & Price 2002), interquartile range
Reference:Bonett DG and Price RM 2002 Statistical inference for a linear function of medians: confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and sample size requirements, Psychological Methods 7 (3): 370-383.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
SampleMethodsStatistical analyses
Statistical analyses
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Kruskal-Wallis: non-parametric analysis of variance for k groups:
Significance: α = 0.05, two-tailed p value, corrected for ties
Post-hoc: Dunn multiple comparisons test, α = 0.0167
Descriptive statistics: median, 95% confidence interval (Bonett & Price 2002), interquartile range
Reference:Bonett DG and Price RM 2002 Statistical inference for a linear function of medians: confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and sample size requirements, Psychological Methods 7 (3): 370-383.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
SampleMethodsStatistical analyses
Statistical analyses
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Correlation: linear relationship between week of release and mean 3-day gross ratio
Significance: α = 0.05, two-tailed p value, 95% confidence interval
Kruskal-Wallis: non-parametric analysis of variance for k groups:
Significance: α = 0.05, two-tailed p value, corrected for ties
Post-hoc: Dunn multiple comparisons test, α = 0.0167
Descriptive statistics: median, 95% confidence interval (Bonett & Price 2002), interquartile range
Reference:Bonett DG and Price RM 2002 Statistical inference for a linear function of medians: confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and sample size requirements, Psychological Methods 7 (3): 370-383.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Sample:mr:
N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12
Conclusion
UK films typically gross less than half their box office over the opening 7 to 8 weeks of their release at the weekend ⇒ UK audiences largely attend the cinema during the week.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Sample:mr:
N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Genre Female Female/male Male Total mr: median [95% CI] IQR
Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05
Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13
Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11
Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 1 5 1 7 0.53 [0.42, 0.65] 0.24
Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02
Total 14 12 24 50
Table 1 Genre and gender of main character(s) for UK films, 2007-2008
Sample:mr:
N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12
Result 1 2 3
The number of films in which the main character(s) are male exceeds those for females and females/males, indicating an overall gender bias in British films.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Genre Female Female/male Male Total mr: median [95% CI] IQR
Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05
Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13
Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11
Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 1 5 1 7 0.53 [0.42, 0.65] 0.24
Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02
Total 14 12 24 50
Table 1 Genre and gender of main character(s) for UK films, 2007-2008
Sample:mr:
N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12
Result 1 2 3
The concept of the ‘woman’s film’ persists in the form of heritage romances (The Edge of Love, Becoming Jane) and the ‘chick flick’ (Mamma Mia!).
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Genre Female Female/male Male Total mr: median [95% CI] IQR
Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05
Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13
Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11
Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 1 5 1 7 0.53 [0.42, 0.65] 0.24
Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02
Total 14 12 24 50
Table 1 Genre and gender of main character(s) for UK films, 2007-2008
Sample:mr:
N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12
Result 1 2 3
Comedy/musical and fantasy/horror/science fiction have no overall gender bias for the main characters.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Genre Female Female/male Male Total mr: median [95% CI] IQR
Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05
Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13
Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11
Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 1 5 1 7 0.53 [0.42, 0.65] 0.24
Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02
Total 14 12 24 50
Table 1 Genre and gender of main character(s) for UK films, 2007-2008
Sample:mr:
N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 Median = 0.38 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.41] IQR = 0.05
Female/Male: N = 11 Median = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.43] IQR = 0.06
Male: N = 24 Median = 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41, 0.51] IQR = 0.13
FIGURE 1 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by gender (outliers excluded)
Female Female/Male Male0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Gender of main characters
Mea
n 3-
day
gros
s ra
tio
Result 1 2 3
There is a statistically significant difference in the mean 3-day gross ratios of UK films sorted by the gender of the main character(s), once outliers have been excluded (Kruskal-Wallis: Hc = 6.1663, p = 0.0458).
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 Median = 0.38 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.41] IQR = 0.05
Female/Male: N = 11 Median = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.43] IQR = 0.06
Male: N = 24 Median = 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41, 0.51] IQR = 0.13
FIGURE 1 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by gender (outliers excluded)
Female Female/Male Male0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Gender of main characters
Mea
n 3-
day
gros
s ra
tio
Result 1 2 3
There is a statistically significant difference between films in which the main character(s) are female and films in which the main character(s) are male (Dunn: p = 0.0072).
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 Median = 0.38 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.41] IQR = 0.05
Female/Male: N = 11 Median = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.43] IQR = 0.06
Male: N = 24 Median = 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41, 0.51] IQR = 0.13
FIGURE 1 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by gender (outliers excluded)
Female Female/Male Male0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Gender of main characters
Mea
n 3-
day
gros
s ra
tio
Result 1 2 3
There is no statistically significant difference between films in which the main character(s) are female/male and those in which the main character(s) are female (Dunn: p = 0.1383) or male (Dunn: p = 0.1205).
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 Median = 0.38 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.41] IQR = 0.05
Female/Male: N = 11 Median = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.43] IQR = 0.06
Male: N = 24 Median = 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41, 0.51] IQR = 0.13
FIGURE 1 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by gender (outliers excluded)
Female Female/Male Male0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Gender of main characters
Mea
n 3-
day
gros
s ra
tio
Conclusion
UK films, in which the main character(s) is female, accumulate a lower proportion of their gross at the weekend than UK films in which the main character(s) is male.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 Median = 0.38 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.41] IQR = 0.05
Female/Male: N = 11 Median = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.43] IQR = 0.06
Male: N = 24 Median = 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41, 0.51] IQR = 0.13
FIGURE 1 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by gender (outliers excluded)
Female Female/Male Male0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Gender of main characters
Mea
n 3-
day
gros
s ra
tio
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72
Female/Male: N = 11 r (9) = 0.59 [95% CI: -0.02, 0.88] p = 0.06
Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87
FIGURE 2 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by week of release (outliers excluded)
0 10 20 30 40 500.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Female Female/Male Male
Week of Release
Mea
n 3-
day
Gro
ss R
atio
Conclusion
There is no linear relationship between when a film is released and the mean 3-day gross ratio.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72
Female/Male: N = 11 r (9) = 0.59 [95% CI: -0.02, 0.88] p = 0.06
Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87
FIGURE 2 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by week of release (outliers excluded)
0 10 20 30 40 500.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Female Female/Male Male
Week of Release
Mea
n 3-
day
Gro
ss R
atio
Result
Four films were identified as outliers: The Golden Compass (F/M), St. Trinian’s (F), Penelope (F), Wild Child (F) . No ‘male’ films were classed as outliers.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72
Female/Male: N = 11 r (9) = 0.59 [95% CI: -0.02, 0.88] p = 0.06
Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87
FIGURE 2 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by week of release (outliers excluded)
0 10 20 30 40 500.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Female Female/Male Male
Week of Release
Mea
n 3-
day
Gro
ss R
atio
Remark
The timing of release does appear to be a factor in the value of mr for the four outliers, and this appears to be related to the impact of school holidays.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72
Female/Male: N = 11 r (9) = 0.59 [95% CI: -0.02, 0.88] p = 0.06
Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87
FIGURE 2 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by week of release (outliers excluded)
0 10 20 30 40 500.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Female Female/Male Male
Week of Release
Mea
n 3-
day
Gro
ss R
atio
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Figure 3 The holiday effect on The Golden Compass, St. Trinian’s, and Penelope
The Golden Compass: mr = 0.5922 release date: 7 December 2007
St. Trinian’s: mr = 0.6204 release date: 21 December 2007
Penelope: mr = 0.6332 release date: 1 February 2008
14-1
6 D
ec
21-2
3 D
ec
28-3
0 D
ec
04-0
6 Ja
n
11-1
3 Ja
n
18-2
0 Ja
n
25-2
7 Ja
n
01-0
3 Fe
b
08-1
0 Fe
b
15-1
7 Fe
b
22-2
4 Fe
b
29 F
eb -
0
2 M
ar
07-0
9 M
ar
14-1
6 M
ar
21-2
3 M
ar
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
The Golden Compass St.Trinian's Penelope
3-D
ay G
ross
Rati
o
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Figure 3 The holiday effect on The Golden Compass, St. Trinian’s, and Penelope
Conclusion
The ability of an audience to attend is restricted by external factors, including school holidays and the closure of theatres on Christmas Day.
The Golden Compass: mr = 0.5922 release date: 7 December 2007
St. Trinian’s: mr = 0.6204 release date: 21 December 2007
Penelope: mr = 0.6332 release date: 1 February 2008
14-1
6 D
ec
21-2
3 D
ec
28-3
0 D
ec
04-0
6 Ja
n
11-1
3 Ja
n
18-2
0 Ja
n
25-2
7 Ja
n
01-0
3 Fe
b
08-1
0 Fe
b
15-1
7 Fe
b
22-2
4 Fe
b
29 F
eb -
0
2 M
ar
07-0
9 M
ar
14-1
6 M
ar
21-2
3 M
ar
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
The Golden Compass St.Trinian's Penelope
3-D
ay G
ross
Rati
o
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Figure 4 3-day gross ratios for Wild Child and Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (both released 15 August 2008)
22-2
4 Au
g
29-3
1 Au
g
05-0
7 Se
p
12-1
4 Se
p
19-2
1 Se
p
26-2
8 Se
p
03-0
5 O
ct
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Wild Child Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day
3-da
y gr
oss
ratio
Wild Child: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.6441 Narrative: teenage girls at an English
boarding school Stars: Emma Roberts Audience: female, 12 to 17
Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.2905 Narrative: a middle-aged woman in the city Stars: Frances McDormand/Amy Adams Audience: female, 25+
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The ‘holiday effect’
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Figure 4 3-day gross ratios for Wild Child and Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (both released 15 August 2008)
22-2
4 Au
g
29-3
1 Au
g
05-0
7 Se
p
12-1
4 Se
p
19-2
1 Se
p
26-2
8 Se
p
03-0
5 O
ct
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Wild Child Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day
3-da
y gr
oss
ratio
Wild Child: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.6441 Narrative: teenage girls at an English
boarding school Stars: Emma Roberts Audience: female, 12 to 17
Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.2905 Narrative: a middle-aged woman in the city Stars: Frances McDormand/Amy Adams Audience: female, 25+
Conclusion
The timing of a film’s release impacts some audiences more than others, and appears to disproportionately affect teenage girls.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Adaptive contracting: release patterns are dynamically adapted over time to meet emerging demand
References:De Vany A and Walls WD 1996 Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry, The Economic Journal 106 (439): 1493-1516.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Adaptive contracting: release patterns are dynamically adapted over time to meet emerging demand
References:De Vany A and Walls WD 1996 Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry, The Economic Journal 106 (439): 1493-1516.
Sedgwick J 2009 Measuring film popularity: principles and applications, in M Ross, M Grasser, and B Freisleden (eds.) Digital Tools in Media Studies: Analysis and Research – An Overview. Bielefeld: Transcript Verlag: 43-54.
Willingness-to-pay principle: box office gross is a measure of audience preferencethe audience ‘votes with its wallet’
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Adaptive contracting: release patterns are dynamically adapted over time to meet emerging demand
References:De Vany A and Walls WD 1996 Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry, The Economic Journal 106 (439): 1493-1516.
Sedgwick J 2009 Measuring film popularity: principles and applications, in M Ross, M Grasser, and B Freisleden (eds.) Digital Tools in Media Studies: Analysis and Research – An Overview. Bielefeld: Transcript Verlag: 43-54.
Ranking: rankings play a key role in the marketing and mythology of a filmChuck Viane (Walt Disney) – “If you’re the number one film in a given
weekend, you get the most free hits publicity-wise.”weekend gross ranking – highest gross for 3-day weekend is most popular
Willingness-to-pay principle: box office gross is a measure of audience preferencethe audience ‘votes with its wallet’
Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total
gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio
High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008
Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total
gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio
High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008
Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total
gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio
High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008
For the same period, the gross of Mamma Mia! is 1.4 times greater than that of Igor
Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total
gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio
High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008
For the same period, the gross of Mamma Mia! is 1.4 times greater than that of Igor
Only 29% of the gross of Mamma Mia! was accumulated at the weekend
Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total
gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio
High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51
Result
Mamma Mia! was more popular with filmgoers than Igor for the week ending 26 October 2008, and that audience largely attended during the period Monday to Thursday.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008
For the same period, the gross of Mamma Mia! is 1.4 times greater than that of Igor
Only 29% of the gross of Mamma Mia! was accumulated at the weekend
Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total
gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio
High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51
Conclusion
Ranking films by their weekend gross does not accurately reflect the decisions of audiences in the UK about which films they wish to see.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
The popularity of films
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008
For the same period, the gross of Mamma Mia! is 1.4 times greater than that of Igor
Only 29% of the gross of Mamma Mia! was accumulated at the weekend
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
At the US box office
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 3 Mean 3-day gross ratio for films at the UK and US box office (n = 8)
Gender Genre UK USMiss Pettigrew Lives for a Day Female Comedy/musical 0.2905 0.6281The Duchess Female Romance 0.3346 0.6432The Other Boleyn Girl Female Romance 0.3772 0.5676Brick Lane Female Drama 0.4593 0.6601Penelope Female Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.6332 0.5753Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.3644 0.5294Made of Honor Female/male Romance 0.3866 0.5489Sweeney Todd Female/male Comedy/musical 0.4159 0.5497Atonement Female/male Romance 0.4413 0.6832The Golden Compass Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.5922 0.5511Amazing Grace Male Drama 0.3232 0.5147Brideshead Revisited Male Drama 0.3311 0.5799The Dark Knight Male Action/crime 0.4577 0.5617Hot Fuzz Male Comedy/musical 0.5238 0.5583Quantum of Solace Male Action/crime 0.5524 0.5681
Result 1 2 3
The mean 3-day gross ratio for a film at the US box office is typically greater than 0.5.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
At the US box office
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 3 Mean 3-day gross ratio for films at the UK and US box office (n = 8)
Gender Genre UK USMiss Pettigrew Lives for a Day Female Comedy/musical 0.2905 0.6281The Duchess Female Romance 0.3346 0.6432The Other Boleyn Girl Female Romance 0.3772 0.5676Brick Lane Female Drama 0.4593 0.6601Penelope Female Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.6332 0.5753Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.3644 0.5294Made of Honor Female/male Romance 0.3866 0.5489Sweeney Todd Female/male Comedy/musical 0.4159 0.5497Atonement Female/male Romance 0.4413 0.6832The Golden Compass Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.5922 0.5511Amazing Grace Male Drama 0.3232 0.5147Brideshead Revisited Male Drama 0.3311 0.5799The Dark Knight Male Action/crime 0.4577 0.5617Hot Fuzz Male Comedy/musical 0.5238 0.5583Quantum of Solace Male Action/crime 0.5524 0.5681
Result 1 2 3
The mean 3-day gross ratios for films at the US box office are typically greater than at the UK box office.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
At the US box office
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 3 Mean 3-day gross ratio for films at the UK and US box office (n = 8)
Gender Genre UK USMiss Pettigrew Lives for a Day Female Comedy/musical 0.2905 0.6281The Duchess Female Romance 0.3346 0.6432The Other Boleyn Girl Female Romance 0.3772 0.5676Brick Lane Female Drama 0.4593 0.6601Penelope Female Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.6332 0.5753Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.3644 0.5294Made of Honor Female/male Romance 0.3866 0.5489Sweeney Todd Female/male Comedy/musical 0.4159 0.5497Atonement Female/male Romance 0.4413 0.6832The Golden Compass Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.5922 0.5511Amazing Grace Male Drama 0.3232 0.5147Brideshead Revisited Male Drama 0.3311 0.5799The Dark Knight Male Action/crime 0.4577 0.5617Hot Fuzz Male Comedy/musical 0.5238 0.5583Quantum of Solace Male Action/crime 0.5524 0.5681
Result 1 2 3
The mean 3-day gross ratios for films at the UK box office typically have a greater range than films at the US box office.
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
At the US box office
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Table 3 Mean 3-day gross ratio for films at the UK and US box office (n = 8)
Gender Genre UK USMiss Pettigrew Lives for a Day Female Comedy/musical 0.2905 0.6281The Duchess Female Romance 0.3346 0.6432The Other Boleyn Girl Female Romance 0.3772 0.5676Brick Lane Female Drama 0.4593 0.6601Penelope Female Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.6332 0.5753Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.3644 0.5294Made of Honor Female/male Romance 0.3866 0.5489Sweeney Todd Female/male Comedy/musical 0.4159 0.5497Atonement Female/male Romance 0.4413 0.6832The Golden Compass Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.5922 0.5511Amazing Grace Male Drama 0.3232 0.5147Brideshead Revisited Male Drama 0.3311 0.5799The Dark Knight Male Action/crime 0.4577 0.5617Hot Fuzz Male Comedy/musical 0.5238 0.5583Quantum of Solace Male Action/crime 0.5524 0.5681
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
At the US box office
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Figure 5 3-day gross ratios for Mamma Mia! at the US and UK box office
US box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.5580 n = 15 Opening weekend: $27,751,240 Total gross: $144,130,063 Ratio: 0.1925
UK box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.4445 n = 15 Opening weekend: £6,594,058 Total gross: £69,170,000 Ratio: 0.09530 5 10 15
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
US box office UK box office
Week
3-da
y gr
oss
ratio
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
At the US box office
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Figure 5 3-day gross ratios for Mamma Mia! at the US and UK box office
US box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.5580 n = 15 Opening weekend: $27,751,240 Total gross: $144,130,063 Ratio: 0.1925
UK box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.4445 n = 15 Opening weekend: £6,594,058 Total gross: £69,170,000 Ratio: 0.0953
Conclusion
Audiences in the UK and the US behave differently, with the former attending during the week and the latter attending at the weekend.
0 5 10 150.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
US box office UK box office
Week
3-da
y gr
oss
ratio
IntroductionData sources
The studyResults and conclusions
Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office
Summary
Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences
Inferring audience behaviour from box office data:
There is a statistically significant relationship between gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio of UK films at the UK box office
There is a ‘holiday effect’ that can affect the size of mr for some audiences
The weekend box office gross is not an accurate measure of a movie’s popularity
British audiences attend films during the week, while American audiences go to the cinema at the weekend