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NGOs: The Bad News World Trade Centers, NYC
Pentagon
Anthrax Cases Fall 2001
Aum Shinrikyo Chemical Weapon Attack March 20, 1995
Asahara Shoko
Oklahoma City, April 19, 1995
A New World?Globalization• Ease of travel• Ease of global finance• Communications revolution States
– Ability to communicate lose
globally monopoly
• Information revolution on
– Ability to share large influence
amounts of information with and
anyone, anywhere, anytime violence
– Global spread of technology
Defining Terrorism
1. Political Agenda2. Cause pain and fear: violence to
further political agenda3. Targeting civilians4. Publicity5. Non-state actors*
The Terrorist “Logic”
Terrorist Violence
Causes pain and fear
in targeted audience
Publicizes a political
agenda and terrorist’s demands
Public demands
action that will end
terrorist attacks
Change in
gov’t policy
The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004• Spain supports US in Iraq• People’s Party in favor of Spanish
intervention• Socialist Worker’s Party wants to withdraw;• AQ warns Spain to leave or face reprisal; • Parliamentary elections on 3/14; • PP favored
Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004
The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004
March 11 attack on
train station;200 killed;
1400 wounded
Voters fear more
reprisals
Debate on Spanish
Iraq policy takes
center stage
Electoral Surprise;PP loses; Worker’s Party wins
New gov’tled by
Worker’s Party
Changes policy
Terrorism is not Foreign
Terrorism is Not New: King David Hotel 1946
Al-Qaeda as an NGO• 1996 fatwa• 1998 fatwa• Al-Qaeda Training Manual (f
rom Dept. of Justice)• Bin-Laden videos• Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery• Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri)• Militant Ideology Atlas(Combating Terrorism Center)
• Osama bin-Laden
AQAM Ideology
• Salafists (pure Islam)• Anti-American• Anti-western• Anti-colonial (resistance or defense)• End separation of Church and state• No pluralism in Islam• Anti-nation-state– Rebuild the Caliphate
• Anti-Democracy
Origins of AQ• Iranian Revolution• (1978-1979)• provides inspiration foreign fighters• formation go home,• of Afghan mujahadin form new groups• or join existing • Pakistan military groups, create a
allies with radical global terrorIslamic groups (1977-79) networkprovides sanctuary
• Ideological legacy USSR invades US, China, Pakistan Soviets • of radical Islamic Afghanistan Egypt, Saudi Arabia, withdraw • thought 1979 and others funding, 1989• provides ideology supplying, and training• and inspiration mujahadin and jihadis
• OBL and others recruit• Saudi funded religious schools volunteers al-Qaeda (global)• (madrassas) in Middle East from madrassas Abu Sayyaf (Phil.)• and Asia (1970s-1980s) in M. E. and Asia GIA (Algeria)• provides recruits with ideology (foreign fighters HAMAS
or jihadis) Islamic Jihad IMU
• Jemaah Islamiah PIJBosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir…
Time
Politics, not Religion
• Important:• This does not represent the average Muslim• Timothy McVeigh was not the average
Christian• AQ is a far greater threat to Muslims than to
Americans• This is a political movement that uses a
twisted version of Islam
Geography of Islam
Non-Middle eastern states• Indonesia 225 m• Pakistan 170 m• Bangladesh 150 m• India 140 m• Turkey 76 m• Nigeria 75 m (of 150 m)• Afghanistan 31 m• Sudan 28 (of 41 m)
Middle Eastern states• Egypt 70 m• Iran 65 m• Algeria 32 m• Morocco 32 m• Iraq 25 m• Saudi Arabia 22 m• Syria 16.2 m• Jordan 4.6
Explaining the Growth of Extremist IdeasPolitical Factors *Technological factorsAuthoritarian government advances in communicationCorrupt government computers for info storageLack of civil rights; no democracy internet and e-mailLack of human rights; no individual freedoms ease of travelLiberal and moderate ideas crushed ease of global financial transactionsRadical ideas crushed (Egypt) advantages of networksRadical ideas encouraged (Saudi Arabia) globalizationPrison torture SOPControlled press spreads ruling ideologyAnti-West and anti-US Social FactorsColonialism in past *Rapid economic changeStrong religious traditions *Population growthPan-Islamic ideas Lack of social and economic mobilityPan-Arab ideas *More university education; lack of jobs*Failures of secular nationalism (Syria, Iraq) *Generation with a lack of identityNo outlet for moderate dissent or debate *Expectations of success; lack of successIsraeli-Palestinian conflict *Expectations of change; lack of change
Economic FactorsPovertySmall wealthy elite *Geopolitical Factors*Expectations of wealth through oil Rapid wealth creation in Middle East *Rising population Iranian revolution*Massive underemployment GlobalizationSocialist economies Soviet Invasion of AfghanistanClosed economies Collapse of Cold War*Knowledge of wealth in other societies Instability of shift to post-cold war world
*Temporal Factors: These variables explain why events happened when they did. Many people ask why radical Islam developed, but we need to ask why it developed and why it developed when it developed.
Growth of extremist ideas