NextGen and Its Impact on Performance

Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System

ICAOMontreal, Quebec, Canada

March 26-30, 2007

Victoria CoxUS Federal Aviation AdministrationAir Traffic Operations,Vice President of Operations Planning

It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods

• Aviation and Aerospace Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. represent 5.5% of U.S. GDPGDP

• If expanded to include If expanded to include related industries, related industries, it’s 9% of U.S. GDP it’s 9% of U.S. GDP

• Contributes 10 million Contributes 10 million jobs to our economyjobs to our economy

2025 NextGen Concept

•Net-Enabled Information Access

•Performance-Based Services

•Weather-Assimilated Decision Making

•Layered, Adaptive Security

•Broad-Area Precision Navigation

•Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations

•“Equivalent Visual” Operations

•“Super Density” Operations

Key CapabilitiesFor full version, see: www.jpdo.aero

Cost of Not Moving to NextGen

Demand by YearDemand by Year

2004 2014 2024 203455,000

75,000

95,000

115,000

135,000

155,000

175,000

Flig

hts

Per

Day

$40 BillionAnnual

Economic Loss

$100 BillionAnnual

Economic Loss

UnconsComm

OEP H&S

No Change

Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand

Future Demand on the NAS

2004 20251X

~3X

Significant Alternate Shift• Increase passengers per flight • A380, reverse RJ trend

20??

~2X

Not to scale

Terminal A

rea Forecast (TAF) G

rowth ProjectionTAF G

rowth

Ratio

s, Hig

her Rate

TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate

2014

Biz shift• 2% shift to micro jets

Flights 1.4-3X

Boeing Forecast3X

2.4X

Continue existing Biz shift• Smaller aircraft, more airports

En

pla

nem

en

t D

eman

d

TAF yields passenger growth of 1.8-2.4X in 2025

2025 NextGen Capabilities:Capacity Impacts

NextGen Capabilities

Current

Current

Airspace Capacity

Bad Wx Good Wx

Current

Current

Airport Capacity

Good Wx Bad Wx

“Super Density” Airport Operations

1.2X – 1.4X

Capacity Increase

Weather Information in Decision Loops

“Equivalent Visual” Operations

Maximize use of

Available Airspace

Nearly match

Good Wx CapacityAircraft

Trajectory-Based Ops

Performance-Based Services

2X – 4X Capacity Increase

Distributed Airport

Operations*

And more… And

more…

Net-Enabled Information Access

Broad Area Precision Navigation

*For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports

NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

• Air Traffic Management– Improved Performance-based services

• Area Navigation (RNAV)• Required Navigation Performance (RNP)• Continuous Descent Approach (CDA)• Improved Information Availability (SWIM)• Improved weather prediction availability and

coordinated weather picture

• Aircraft and Operator Performance– Improved aircraft performance

• Navigation and aircraft flight performance• Improved noise and emissions performance

– Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety

NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets

JPDO Develops NextGenPerformance Assessment

of Concepts – Sets Targets

AgencyDevelops Near-TermPerformance Goals

Enterprise Architecture:

Performance Reference Model

AgencyExecutes Investments Monitors Performance

Flight Plan

OEP

Enterprise Architecture

JPDO ManagesOutcomes against Plan

Portfolio Management

Adjust Plan

National PlanSets NextGen Objectives

Demonstrated Metrics Experience

ATO Dashboard

The Mountain Chart30% Increase in Effective Capacity by 2013

Mountain Chart reflects OEP v8.0 capacity, TAF 2005 demand growth, and March 2006 schedules

Increase in

Eff

ecti

ve C

ap

acit

y

(14 M

inu

tes o

f D

ela

y p

er F

lig

ht)

ATL Depeaking

TMA w/RNAV Airspace & Procedures

5 Runways Including ATL, + Req’d Airspace &

Technology Improvements

3 Runways Including ORD, + Req’d Airspace &

Technology Improvements

Safe Flight 21

Performance MetricsResults to Date

July 2004

Safe Flight 21

Performance MetricsResults to Date

July 2004

Safe Flight 21

Performance MetricsResults to Date

July 2004

Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics

NAS Today

Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow

Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities

OEP Solution Sets

OEP Solution Sets

Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports

Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment

Improve Collaborative ATM

Reduce Weather Impact

Increase Safety, Security, and

Environmental Performance

Transform Facilities

Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports

Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment

Improve Collaborative ATM

Reduce Weather Impact

Increase Safety, Security, and

Environmental Performance

Transform Facilities

ERAM

STARS/CARTS

ADS-B

TMA

TFM-M

SWIM

DATA Comm

Precision Navigation

Network Enabled Weather

ERAM

STARS/CARTS

ADS-B

TMA

TFM-M

SWIM

DATA Comm

Precision Navigation

Network Enabled Weather

Current ProgramsCurrent Programs Key Near-Term Investments Key Near-Term Investments

ERAM EnhancementsAutomated Problem Resolution

Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density

Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops

Time Based Metering

TFM-M EnhancementsTime-Based Metering

ERAM EnhancementsAutomated Problem Resolution

Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density

Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops

Time Based Metering

TFM-M EnhancementsTime-Based Metering

RNP/RNAV ExpansionPrecise Navigation

Data CommunicationsFlight Intent Downlink

ADS-BAircraft Separation

SWIM/Net-Enabled WeatherNet-Centric Information Sharing

RNP/RNAV ExpansionPrecise Navigation

Data CommunicationsFlight Intent Downlink

ADS-BAircraft Separation

SWIM/Net-Enabled WeatherNet-Centric Information Sharing